jmlease1

I'd say we sold high on him once, not really looking to bring him back. He's not as good as Escobar in the INF, he really shouldn't play OF, and I have trouble believing he'll hit as well as he did in Boston last year (he had his best hitting season as a pro at age 30, seems like a prime candidate for regression). If we didn't have Escobar, I'd be interested, but they're similar players who fill a similar niche so I'd rather keep the younger switch-hitter and I don't see room for both on the roster.

I think we have a significant roster crunch for the position players that makes this a challenge. I'd love to have a reliable RH power bat on the bench, but right now I'm not sure they'll carry one. It feels like Grossman has a spot fairly well locked down (should he? might be another question) as the primary DH who will get a few starts in the OF. Adrianza and Escobar look to have two bench spots secured, and they're both useful players. Garver certainly has the lead at backup catcher. If we carry 13 freakin' pitchers...there's no spots left. So unless we commit to 13 position players (which I would prefer), the choice is more like Grossman vs Vargas vs Free Agent X. (I don't see Granite getting a spot absent injury if we only carry 12 position players)

yeah, I'm not exactly going to be sad if Gonsalves ceiling is Seattle-era Jamie Moyer...and David Wells was a damn tough pitcher for a long time whose deception didn't rely on an elite slider or curve. We won't really know until Gonsalves has an extended run at MLB, I think. Looking forward to seeing it. (also? david Wells is listed at 183lbs at B-ref. BWAH!)

Under this formulation: Darvish. Neither Lynn nor Cobb are top-end guys and while they might provide more consistency in the rotation than what we have now (I've been clear on this site that I don't trust The Tease, aka Kyle Gibson and Hughes may never start a game again) but I'm still more worried about quality than quantity. With potential decline a real possibility for Santana, adding a horse like Darvish is even more optimal. A rotation of Darvish, Berrios, Santana, Meija, and Gibson (with Gonsalves and other pushing the back end guys hard, possibly even taking their jobs) is much more appealing than Berrios, Santana, Cobb, Lynn, and Meija/Gibson. And considering the roster crunch we're facing, adding extra guys that really don't substantially increase the quality level hurts us in other ways.

Kinley is competing for 1 or maybe 2 spots. If he shows he's got the control to pitch in higher leverage spots, he could make it. If he doesn't he's going to be offered back. The stuff is there. he's a power arm with for real stuff, but if he can't get the control down he won't make this roster.

I think one that's missing here is a slow start for one of our three young, but no longer rookie outfielders. There's basically a 99.5% chance that our planned starting OF alignment is Rosario-Buxton-Kepler and if one or more of them struggles to find a groove out the gate it's going to be a problem for this offense...and right now the options behind them are: Zack Granite (fairly untested, did not hit much in limited action last season, and might have to start the season in AAA), Robbie Grossman (an abysmal defender), Mitch Garver (who had half the ABs of Granite and would be playing out of position), and Eduardo Escobar (who should stay in the INF). A prolonged slump by any of the starters would be concerning, especially since I don't seeing anyone exactly hammering on the door to take their jobs. Of Nick's 5, I'm most worried about Erv's decline, just because it would hurt so much. Some pitchers have a slow, gradual decline, others fall off the cliff. If it's the former, we'll be ok; if it's the latter we're in a lot of trouble. I'm not terribly concerned about the closer role. I think we have a number of reasonable options to fill it if Rodney falters, and I think we'll be able to get by with Rodney as the guy who comes in to pitch the 9th. It's also the contract that seems the easiest to move on from if it doesn't work. that's the one off the list I'm least worried about.

hell, I'd like a rule mandating a pitcher must face at least 3 batters, barring injury. the many many pitching changes gets very old.

I've completely given up on hoping that The Tease (Kyle Gibson) will take the long-hoped for "step forward". I've been burned too many times. I'd love for it to happen, I'm rooting for him...but I expect nothing other than being a back of the rotation innings eater at this point. Kepler and Berrios are both good choices. It's so hard to tell with relievers, but Rogers is a guy I'll be watching this year. I'd consider Granite, but I don't know if he makes the roster at the start of the season, absent a trade of Grossman. (there's a real possibility we'll start the season with a 3-man bench and 13 goddamn pitchers, so there's going to be a huge roster crunch for position guys)

Well, he only got 10 outings there last season...and I'm trying to recall one that he got in the second half of the season and I'm struggling with it. Kepler got more run out there in CF than Eddie and I suspect Eddie's going to be an emergency option only going forward. (especially if Granite cracks the 25-man)

I'd be interested to see how much things like sprint speed fluctuate from year to year, but it's something that should be a little concerning. Unless Rosario starts taking better routes to the ball and tracking things better, a loss of high-end speed will end up hurting him. Here's a question: would he be better off in RF? He's got the arm to play out there effectively and as I recall the alignment at Target Field makes LF a bigger space to cover than RF. Much as I like Kepler in RF, we may have to consider flip-flopping those two if Rosario can't get his giddyup back in gear. If Rosario can make an incremental improvement on last year's offense while getting back some of his defensive value, he's going to be a real asset. If he slides back further on D or starts swinging at anything thrown in the vicinity of 1st Ave again, he's not going to have a lengthy career.

I think there's more than a small possibility that Hughes starts the season on the DL, and then needs rehab time in the minors to get himself into pitching shape. I love Chargois, but he's got to prove that he's healthy and I'm not betting on him at the start of the season either. I'm not even a little worried about Kinley; we're at a point where a Rule V guy has to show they can contribute or we won't hold a roster spot for them and if he goes I'm not shedding any tears. the heat loss in missing on a Rule V pick is pretty low. Rodney's contract is one where if he's not pitching well we can dump him and roll with a different guy from Rochester and I think that's healthy. And as much as i hate it, there's a better than even chance we come north with an 8-man 'pen. Rodney Reed Duke Hildenburger Rogers Pressly (who has earned the skepticism) Duffey Busenitz That looks like the first cut. May is going to be tossed in the starter pool (good!). Enns, Kinley, Curtiss, and Moya are fighting for spots. Moya has options, and has never pitched at AAA; he starts there unless Duke or Rogers falters/gets hurt and we need another lefty. Duffey could get dealt (he's exactly the sort of pitcher who gets thrown into a deal so that a team isn't getting all prospects for a legit MLB player/star) but otherwise he's potentially the swingman in the bullpen and needs to fight off Enns or Kinley. Curtiss is going to push Pressly. Those are my guesses right now. Regardless, there's a lot more depth than there was and Reed sure looks like the impact bullpen arm people were complaining the twins weren't gonna sign.

Mauer's seems like a fine baserunner, but he doesn't steal bases and grounds into plenty of DPs, so I'm not surprised to see him with a bottom 5 sort of number...but looking at some of the other 1Bs around the league Fan Graphs basically just thinks he stinks at it. That's a surprise; I figured his issues would be around the no SBs and the GIDPs, but he's not that different from a number of other guys at his position in that regard. Not a surprise to see Buxton rank so well; he's electric out there and it's a delight to watch. I almost don't want him slugging HRs because it's so fun to see him on the bases. (swear to god, you could see fear in the eyes of LFs last year when he'd flip a single even a little bit towards the line knowing that he was fast enough to turn a routine single into a double if they didn't hustle after the ball)

I think it's fair for Gordon's second-half struggles to downgrade him some on the prospect lists, and for it not just to be a function of higher-upside prospects joining the organization/being recognized. He had an ok year; it started really well offensively and ended pretty badly. It's not an unusual occurrence for a prospect to hit a stumbling block when they start getting into the high minors, but while Gordon is young for his level (and has been at every stop) it's still a reasonable cause for concern. He also didn't do a lot to prove that he really can stick at SS at the major-league level, either. He didn't disqualify himself either, but taken in aggregate, last season is more of a "he justified the promotion" sort of season rather than a "he's ready to keep advancing" one. I'd like for him to repeat at AA and see how it goes. He's got some things to work on and repeating a level at his age is fine. he's still a prospect, but right now he's not showing enough to say "we can't deal him".

Many, many fond memories of Morneau. terrific player. Prototypical 1B slugger who went from being a little scary defensively at 1B to someone you had confidence in. It's a shame the concussions wiped out some peak years when he was really rolling and he didn't get to play in the postseason in 2009 or 2010. Maybe he would have been a difference-maker. One that I'll never forget: 2006 ALDS Game 2 at the old Metrodome. Friend from school stops me in the hall and says, "hey, I got tickets, wanna go?" And we're off. Cheap seats out in the outfield, and it's great. Bottom 6, Twins are down 2-0 when Cuddyer rips a HR and the whole place goes nuts. Just barely over the din I scream to my buddy, "just watch, Morneau's going back-to-back" (I was caught up in the moment, not like I really believed it or anything just wanted it so bad!). And then Justin Morneau launches one into the seats to tie the game and it's bedlam. It's the loudest I've ever heard anything. It was painful. It was great. What a homer. congrats on retirement, Justin. Glad the club is keeping you in the fold.

I'm having trouble spotting Dozier shifting to 3B at that point, but I suppose anything is possible? Hard to know if he really has the arm for the spot, but otherwise he could probably handle it defensively. If Royce Lewis is already beating down the door at SS I have a hunch that Nick Gordon gets dealt to someone who wants his bat in their lineup. The rest seems to be a good fit.

I don't think there's any question that Rosario's defense has declined from his rookie season (I'll debate the idea that Buxton is the only quality defender out there, however; Kepler is still a good defender and Granite certainly has potential). But if he can keep up the increased discipline he showed last season, he's a useful player. He doesn't need to be a walk-taking machine, just show an understanding of the zone so he doesn't get himself out. It's also possible that he can improve his defense back up to something closer to average out there if he's established a more consistent approach at the plate. he's got the arm to be a nice corner OF and enough range to get to the balls he needs to, but he makes poor decisions out there. well, he made poor decisions at the plate two years ago and that improved. He's not super young any longer, but maybe he's matured? I'm rooting for him, that's for sure.

I'm staggered that anyone would attack Nick Nelson for not reporting this assault accusation to legal authorities. That's not his responsibility and absent the consent of the accuser, he has nothing substantive to add to the conversation. The fact that this would come up is further evidence how much further we have to go in dealing with sexual harassment, sexual assault, and related issues in our society. At my job we have mandatory training that we are required to renew every year. It's comprehensive and actually quite informative for people who take it seriously. (The interactive web-based system used does a respectable job in making people people engage on the topic as well) One of the topics covered is the concept of mandatory reporting, so that people know their roles. Some people where I work are "mandatory reporters" and if someone tells them about an assault or harassment, they are required as part of their job to inform the appropriate authority. Most people are not. Most people, especially at a private business, are not going to be considered a mandatory reporter and if someone is then they absolutely would know that status. Other people are allowed to support a victim in whatever way the victim asks, including maintaining confidence. We do this because there are jobs (school teachers, in particular) who are in positions of public trust and authority who we have decided as a society that they can't keep things quiet. (not coincidentally, this can also help victims come forward: by telling a mandatory reporter they can trigger the start of something official starting with someone they can speak with more comfortably rather than straight to the police) A columnist/writer for a website isn't going to be a mandatory reporter. This is a serious accusation. It's been followed up by some preliminary investigation and commentary from people who have inside information that lends additional credibility to the accusation. The victim has gone on the record in public. The Twins had better take this extremely seriously. Regardless of what happens in this specific case, I'd suggest that the organization should rethink how it handles sexual harassment training and how they handle that training both in how it relates to players and staff. They will need to ensure that they are handling that training in a comprehensive fashion that addresses cultural and language barriers as they arise and not assume a basic "one size fits all" approach will be effective.

I'm ok with lowering our aim if we can't land Darvish (which admittedly will be tough, the competition is significant)...just not too far. I'm not all that excited about spending on depth guys for the rotation. If we can't improve the top end of our staff through free agency/trade, I'd rather stay internal next year and give some of our guys in the minors a shot rather than get a veteran back-end guy. Honestly...we have a few of those. (The Tease, aka Kyle Gibson, Mejia, Hughes...that's enough options for the back-end right there along with possibly May, Gonsalves, Jorge, and/or Romero competing for a slot. Heck, we could still bring back Santiago.) I'm not interested in sell mode. We've got 2 young stars already in the every day lineup (Buxton & Sano) and other young pieces around them (Kepler & Rosario) that could take another step forward. We have veterans with value around them as well (Dozier, Mauer, Castro) which makes for a potent offense and quality defense. Selling off Ervin or Dozier would have to bring a bonanza with players ready to step in almost immediately, and I don't see anyone likely to make that offer. Other teams have tried to lowball us on Dozier before, and with him closer to free agency his perceived value will drop even further. We're much better off keeping him. Now, making a deal that pushes Robbie Grossman aside? I can live with that. he was a nice find offensively off the scrap heap, but let's not pretend he's a quality starter. I'm not holding a spot worrying about getting Grossman some playing time and if we can get a guy like Cruz, who would be a big offensive boost (even if he probably can't play OF unless it's interleague), I'd explore the heck out of it. McCutchen would be even better, letting us mix & match in the OF but the haul required to get him out of Pittsburgh might be too high; they'll overvalue him based on past performance and his popularity with the fan base, something I can understand. If we can get him for a couple of mid-level prospects, though? I'd go for it in a heartbeat and platoon him at RF & DH for 140-150 games and hope the extra rest keeps his bat fresh.

Considering Mauer already has a higher bWAR (53.4 v 46.2) & fWAR (48.1 v 44.3) than Dale Murphy in 4 less seasons, I'm not sure it's a great comp. If Mauer adds another 5-6 WAR in the next 2-3 seasons that's a pretty significant difference. Mattingly played the same number of seasons as Joe (to this point), but Mauer again was better: (53.4 v 42.2 bWAR; 48.1 v 40.7 fWAR). Beyond that Mauer is still likely to keep playing for another few years to add to his total. After last season do you really expect him to put up negatives? the narrative is different as well: After being the consensus best catcher in the game, Mauer was forced to change positions because of injury and turned himself into a fine defensive 1B while still continuing to get on base at an elite level through walks and line drives. with Murphy the narrative is more like: after being one of the best CF in the game, Murphy turned 31 and went into a rapid and steep decline that he never recovered from. Mattingly: after an amazing start to his career, Mattingly became an average to above average starter in the league before injuries wiped out the real decline phase of his career. remember, mauer was having another outstanding season at catcher in 2013, before the brain injury forced the position change a few years earlier than anyone would have liked. The hardware for them might be pretty similar, but the production really isn't. (and how much extra did Murphy get for playing on TBS and Mattingly for being a goddamn Yankee? That really mattered for awards back then; it's normed out somewhat now.) Mauer had more dominant seasons than Mattingly, about the same as Murphy. Murphy never recovered once he fell from the heights and wasn't a good player at all his last 4 seasons; Mauer is still a productive player. Mattingly wasn't even a player at this point. That said, both Murphy and Mattingly have gotten real consideration for the Hall; both spent 15 years on the ballot. Mauer is better than both and should make the Hall when his time comes.

I left off Scott Rolen. Big oversight on my part. He won't make it in this year (partly because Chipper was a better hitter and healthier) but he should. He was a great player.

2 years with an option for a 3rd with a reasonable buyout and some salary escalators tied to playing time would be fine in my book. I'd make the offer seth outlines. He's a nice, flexible bench piece that gives you good insurance against an INF injury. I'd rather not have him starting in one spot consistently, but as a super-utility guy he's a great fit and $4.5M is a price I'd pay.

My list: Vlad Guerrero Trevor Hoffman Larry "Chipper" Jones Jim Thome Mike Mussina Edgar Martinez Larry Walker Curt Schilling Johan Santana I still can't decide where to fall on the PED guys, so I left 'em all off for now. Bonds & Clemens were both of HoF caliber before they started juicing, but the whole thing is still a mess. Manny...gah. Insanely great hitter. Useless defender. Cheater. feels like we need more distance from it all to decide. Toughest omission: Andruw Jones. Still thinking about adding him to the list. He was amazing defensively in his prime, and was a good hitter for most of his career. But wow, did he fall apart right after turning 30. Fast and steep decline. I'd be ok if he made it, still deciding on that 10th slot if I need to use it. Couldn't vote for Omar, much as I loved to watch him play. Bad hitter, much closer to Davey Concepcion than Ozzie Smith in my mind. Larry Walker is underrated, in my mind. He wasn't just a Coors Field phenom, he was a great player who could do it all...except stay healthy. But when he played, he was fantastic. Hall of Famer in my book.

Agreed. Plus, we're not overspending on a guy to simply pitch the 9th inning. Kenley Jansen is a great, great reliever...but is he really worth paying $21M for? for less than 70 innings? Two years ago Zach Britton was the shutdown guy in the AL; last year he got a $5M raise (to $11M) and was less valuable than Rodney was. (at roughly 4x the price) Rodney has generally been pretty effective as a closer, a role that is generally overrated and overpaid by modern usage. So signing him at a pretty reasonable price to fill a role on this team that he should be able to perform while not blocking any of the power relief arms we have coming up in the minors or preventing what may be better options in the system already from serving in higher leverage situations seems like a decent move. It's certainly not one worth hating on.

I'm a little surprised at the hostility towards this move, honestly. I mean, I get that it's not a big splashy signing but it's hard to see how this objectively a bad signing either. Rodney is a quality, experienced reliever with loads of experience in the closer role. Singing him doesn't mess up our salary structure in the future, nor will it jeopardize our chances at a big-time signing later in free agency. He should be a useful piece for the bullpen next year. This doesn't look like a "Ryan 2.0" move to me; that would have been giving a shot to a former closer who had sucked for 3 years and was looking for one more shot. Rodney was very good last year once he got past that first month or so. (yes, those count but my point is: this doesn't look like a guy who is cooked) It's a small move, but a fine one in my opinion. I'm not a fan of handing out multi-year deals to FA relievers generally; we've seen so much variance in performance over the years to make that a questionable use of funds. And there's no question teams have overpaid for "closers", especially with the 9th inning only useage, so i'd rather do it more like this.

A solid signing. the money is fine, I like that's it's a 1 year deal considering how many power arms we have in the system in relief roles that could easily emerge. The experience will probably help some of the younger relievers adjust, and it looks like he should still be effective...and if it turns out he's cooked it won't be hard to move on. Good move to bolster the roster.