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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    No chance. Joe Mauer is so low-drama and anti-diva he'd never be able to do it. I mean, this is a guy who gets crucified regularly on KFAN for being too boring (and let's be honest, because he no interest in doing media appearances with Dan Barreiro). he just doesn't have the ego in him to try to reappear on the stage after being retired for a year or two. Especially since you know that the number one reason he's hanging it up is because he doesn't want to get another concussion and risk long-term health problems.
  2. jmlease1
    Loved Joe Mauer. What an amazing, beautiful swing. When I think of Joe at the plate, I'll always remember feeling like he was gonna get a hit. How could he not, with that eye and that swing? And then watch him rip another double to the opposite field gap in left center. I really wish he'd gotten the recognition he deserved as a defensive 1B; he should have won a gold glove there, and I really think it says something about who Joe Mauer is and what kind of player that he was that he made that position shift and wasn't satisfied with being solid (which he was almost immediately) but worked to become great defensively again. Good luck Joe, and enjoy retirement with your kids. I was hoping for one last run, but I don't blame you at all for hanging it up after the latest concussion. ****ing hell, concussions are bad ****.
  3. jmlease1
    How many of Scott Boras' "clients" actually get any time with Scott Boras himself? It's one of the reasons you see guys changing agents, not unusual for some of them to realize they may have signed with the super-agent, but he spends most of his time with other people. I'm certainly not worried about a couple of our minor league guys being signed with a blowhard agent who insults the franchise; they're already signed to the team. Don't know that I love Happ as a signing...I suspect if he gets a 3-year deal; that last year is going to be crap. (ineffective and/or injured) I keep thinking it about it this way: Kyle Gibson right now is our #2 starter. I'd like anyone we sign to be better than Kyle Gibson. Not sure Happ is that guy, he feels more like a 3 or 4 guy and seems unlikely to be as good next year as he was this year (and definitely not as good as he was for NY)
  4. jmlease1
    To your credit, you did rank Kirilloff #5 going into last year coming off a significant injury. Part of my concern is I'm worried that coming back from the shoulder injury is actually harder for a baseball player than Tommy John on a hitter. It's interesting to hear that you think the talent level is tightly bunched with the next ten guys after the top 3 (who I think everyone serious about it would say are the twins top 3, really). That's a pretty good sign for the system.
  5. jmlease1
    It's a fascinating scenario. I don't love slotting in Marwin Gonzalez; his positional flexibility is really nice, but I don't love paying him $11M a year. (and I don't love paying Grossman $4M either). Even in a "big-spender" mode those feel like less than great investments. Gonzalez hitting in 2017 looks like a fluke year, so dropping this kind of money on him doesn't make my socks roll up & down. The corbin signing would be a risk, but damn if it wouldn't be a hell of a splashy move. Berrios and Corbin would be really nice at the top of the rotation (and set the team up nicely for a playoff series), and Gibson & Pineda should be able to chew up innings well in the 3-4 slots, allowing Romero to develop with less pressure. Donaldson: I could see it. a 1 year "prove it" kind of deal to rebuild his value before he tries for one more big(ish) multi-year? It's not a crazy idea and it seems unlikely that he's going to get a 4-5 year offer at the kind of money he'll want. Maybe he could be convinced to bet on himself. Extend Berrios: love it. I'm 100% behind this. Extend Buxton: I love it and I hate it. Man, I just don't know. I want to believe! I'm afraid to believe.
  6. jmlease1
    I think Wander Javier is too high. I know he's young and has impressive tools, but he's also coming off a big injury and hasn't played any full-season baseball yet. Too much projection and uncertainty for me to have him all the way up at #4. I'd probably argue the most for Ben Rortvedt, who showed real improvement at the plate this year, with solid hitting not just at Cedar Rapids but also after his promotion to Ft. Myers. It looks like someone who will stick at catcher and if he's really improved his hit tool, then he's a much better prospect than #29. Frankly, I'm more excited about Rortvedt than I am Blankenhorn at this point. I suspect it's going to be a hard list this year with a lot of guys bunched around each other. No questions on who the top 3 are in my mind, and Seth has it nailed here. There's a really strong group coming through out of Ft. Myers right now! I wish I was feeling as positive about the guys who are closer to coming out of Rochester; several of those fellows sitting 6-10 have shown some definite question marks now that's they're in the top levels that they need to iron out if they're going to be star potential players and consistent starters, rather than reserves.
  7. jmlease1
    I dunno if this plan is achievable, but I kinda like it. McCutcheon is actually a pretty good fit for this team, and while he would cost quite a bit more than Grossman...I like him a lot better. Grossman was awful until September, has no defensive value, really and is basically a 1 trick pony. McCutcheon may have faded defensively, but he can still be solid in a corner and should be a consistent hitter. at 31 he's still likely to have a few more good years in him...maybe a 3-year deal?
  8. jmlease1
    I think there's a good point here: it's a lot easier to tear a team down to the studs after a brutal season like the 103 loss one. But they didn't and the team bounced back with an over-achieving 85 win season that put them in the playoffs. This season they got smacked around by injuries and so we dumped a bunch of guys unlikely to be part of the future/FAs. I think it gets to be a hard sell (especially in this community where ownership is perceived as cheap and not committed to winning) to start dealing younger players off the MLB roster for even more prospects, especially when the most heralded prospects in recent vintage haven't consistently graduated to become what we thought/hoped they would be. While Tom's strategy might end up being a smart one to set things up for 2021 or beyond (I'm sorry, but I think with all the moves proposed here, you're setting the MLB club back far enough that expecting them to be ready in 2020 is...unlikely) it probably gets the front office fired before it comes to fruition, unless guys like Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff stay on their fastest of tracks and have zero setbacks. I dunno. Of course, the bigger problem is Tom's lineup has 4 guys whose last name ends in "O", with a potential 5th in Astudillo and that's just going to wreak havoc with the announcing team.
  9. jmlease1
    I think I'd non-tender Grossman. He's going to be looking at raise in arbitration (shocking to most Twins fans, but that's the way the process works) and I'm not sure a no-power DH/poor defensive OF is a great for for this squad. The solid slugging in 2016 looks like a fluke year and I dunno if it's worth paying him $2.5-$3M for his OBP. Feels like there will be better options in FA to improve that slot on the 25-man. The only thing that makes this a little bit of a question is he is a switch hitter, but I suspect he's going to be increasingly ineffective against RHP, which costs value there too. I'd hate to end up keeping him on the roster if someone else outperforms him in Spring Training because we don't want to eat the contract. But maybe someone who has a better feel for the FA market will correct me.
  10. jmlease1
    Jax seems to be performing well, and it's good for him to get the additional innings, I think. Too bad Rooker isn't going to play at all.
  11. jmlease1
    I think if you look at every team's 40-man there's going to be 8-12 guys who fall into what you're calling "marginal" here. A more accurate word would be "unproven". Am I writing in Kohl Stewart or Stephan Gonsalves into the rotation in ink? Hardly, but they're both prospects who just got their first taste of the majors this year. Do I expect them to compete for a slot in the rotation? Absolutely. Guys like Curtiss or Moya are also young players that could be important contributors to the bullpen. These aren't flotsam, junk players with no real hope. These are legit prospects and if we cut them loose tomorrow (which you seem disturbingly comfortable with doing) they'd get snatched up immediately. Do we need to improve the roster? Of course. We're likely moving on from several guys that were on the 25 man for chunks of the season (Morrison, Santana, Mauer, Forsyth spring to mind). Those replacements are where we'll see the immediate gains. the 40-man is in pretty decent shape. It's got a few marginal guys on it, like most clubs, and those will get moved out based on upgrades we sign and on positional needs. I'm looking forward to seeing how the twins dip into the FA market and the trade market. there could be a lot of action for us at the Winter Meetings. Step 1: get a new manager. Step 2: finalize the coaching staff Step 3: start re-working the roster at the Winter Meetings Step 4: arbitration stuff Step 5: finalize the roster We just finished Step 1?
  12. jmlease1
    Well, at the right price and in the right role Mauer still has value for this team (and many others). But at this point any statements about Mauer are mostly PR. Joe isn't likely going to make any decisions about playing based on whether the manager starts praising him. It's a smart play out the gate to be respectful of Mauer...and who knows? Maybe when he says he wants him on the team, he could might want him to join the coaching staff. So far Rocco has shown himself to be pretty savvy at working the media. Gotta say, I loved the way he handled Ruesse!
  13. jmlease1
    I'm baffled by the inconsistencies in this argument. the FO are automatons, but they're running a "chicken soup for the soul" franchise? You're mad about the decision to fire Molitor, but you don't hold it against the new guy, but you won't go to a twins game again unless Molitor gets hired to manage by someone else?
  14. jmlease1
    Seems fine. I doubt there's a managerial candidate out there that would make me go, "Wow, this is a huge win! We are KILLING it in the managerial search!" But Rocco seems like a reasonable choice. Should be on board with the front office's approach, should be able to relate with and work with young players. Hopefully he can handle the tactical situations well and improve bullpen and lineup useage.
  15. jmlease1
    Well, that's sort of the question, isn't it? His bat as it stands plays just fine in CF and he accumulated a healthy chunk of his increased WAR by playing many more games in CF this year. I'm not 100% sure he can handle the position full-time defensively, but he did well there last year when he played. The bat's not so good in RF without improvement, it's just not. Do we have enough offense elsewhere to handle a little below average in RF on offense to get the elite D and positional flexibility? I just don't know. I think Kepler's fate & potential is one of the most difficult and intriguing offseason questions, I really do.
  16. jmlease1
    It's a difficult call, especially with Buxton's future uncertain and only about a half season of play from Jake Cave to evaluate. While there's a real risk that we've seen who Kepler is as a hitter, there's a significant risk that Cave can't replicate his production. Moving on from Kepler leaves the team vulnerable if Buxton or Cave can't hold down CF full-time by losing another guy who can be an asset out there. I honestly don't know what the right play is here, but it's one of the most difficult ones the FO is facing, I think.
  17. jmlease1
    I think what's concerning is he really isn't improving when it comes to his hit tool. OPS+ of 96, 95, 96 over the last three years is not encouraging. I'm not ready to give up on him by any means, but there's a legitimate concern that this may be who he is at the plate: a low average, reasonably patient hitter with some pop in his bat, but overall a below average hitter. I hope he proves me wrong, but the lack of overall improvement at the MLB level is discouraging. He's not old, but after 3 years in MLB it's hard to go, "well, he's young".
  18. jmlease1
    Kepler is a useful player even if his bat never improves, but we were all hoping for more than just "useful". there's a lot of value in having a guy with plays excellent outfield defense and can play multiple positions, but the biggest reason for his jump in defensive statistics wasn't because his defense got so much better, but because of how much additional time he logged in CF. Does he play 40+ games in CF next year with Jake Cave and Byron Buxton on the roster next season? Positional adjustments are a bitch. Moving Kepler to 1B only makes the problem worse, in that he'd have less ability to influence the game with defense (his strength) and more need to influence the game on offense (not his strength). Kepler needs to improve his hitting or show he can take over CF full time (the latter creates a whole new set of a issues). If he does either, then he's an above average starter. If he doesn't, then he probably isn't the answer as a starter in RF but would have a lot of value as a 4th OF.
  19. jmlease1
    I think you're undervaluing Berrios rather significantly. He was in the AL top 10 or just outside it in a number of significant pitching categories this season and has improved his performance every year he's been in MLB. He looks like a pitcher on the rise. Baker might have been on this level, until he got hurt. he had his best season at 26 (Berrios of course is only 24), slid back over the next two years, looked to be having a rebound season before getting hurt. He was never the same. Berrios has developed faster and appears to have a higher ceiling. If he stays healthy, he ain't Scott Baker. Gibson is probably a fairer comp to Baker: later development, with issues of consistency. But Gibson has never had issues with his health and just had his best season as a pro at age 30. Baker was already done as an effective player. If you get the healthy version of Scott Baker to be your #3 starter you're probably in decent shape. If he's your #2, you're praying it's an up year and not a down one.
  20. jmlease1
    Meija looks like a guy who is a trade piece to me right now. If we're looking at guys who could be part of an extended "core", Romero and Garver both look like more likely contenders as guys who are likely to stick with the club and perform at a significant level. Kepler is a useful player, but he needs to advance his hitting. His WAR (bWAR or fWAR) increased this season because he spent substantially more time filling in at CF this year than last. He's a fine defensive player: elite in RF and probably about average in CF, which is really nice and useful. But you really don't want him to be your every day CF and he's not hitting enough for you to be happy with him at RF, and moving him to 1B or DH simply makes the situation worse because it's his hit tool that falling down on him. He needs to hit better or he's eventually going to find himself as a 4th OF, and that's not a core player. I'm rooting for him, but after 3 full seasons...he may be who he is as a hitter. Polanco, Rosario, and Berrios are a good start. Twins need one more guy to really step forward and show they can be a player that can be counted on. Buxton, Sano, or Kepler...who's the most likely candidate? Or is it Romero or someone else on the pitching side?
  21. jmlease1
    The Nolasco deal was a bad one, and I think most of Twins Daily disliked it at the time. The Castro signing was fine; bad luck he got hurt last year, but he was a nice player for us in year 1 (bWAR 2.5). Ervin Santana had a decent first season (where he missed a a ton of time due to suspension, not Twins fault), was terrific the next 2 years and then fell off the cliff. But it was a reasonable contract that worked out ok, just ended badly. I mean if you consider that 1 WAR is frequently listed as being worth $8-9M...Castro's still on pace to outplay his contract and Ervin was more than worth the deal he signed. Nolasco was the bad one and that regime is gone. I don't think the Twins are going to spend to this year's payroll, but they'll clear $100M, and probably end up closer to $110-$120M, unless a fairly significant FA wants to come here. That's still plenty of payroll space to fill in the holes on the roster.
  22. jmlease1
    I think what you see from the statistical analysis is that 1B scoops are an activity that's memorable, not frequent. They're valuable, because they erase a baserunner and frequently save at least 1 base (and can often save more than that), but because of the frequency of the occurrence, it's not as impactful a skill over the course of a season. It sticks out in people's minds because it's a cool play, because it looks impressive (and is!), and it often results in spinning what could be a disaster error into an out, so we remember it. But is it worth trading 5-10 scoops for 15 hrs? It is. There's a reason modern defensive metric have the position adjustments they doing when calculating things like WAR: certain positions just aren't as impactful as others. I love having a 1B who can clean up the poor throws. And there might be a secondary effect that we're not able to quantify (yet) when players who have less reliable arms are throwing to a guy who they know is skilled and handling anything that comes at him...but it's hard to say it's significant. Bottom line: I think we can live defensively with Polanco at SS. Which means we have flexibility in filling in the hole in the middle INF. Get the best player we can at either SS or 2B and feel ok with Polanco manning the other spot. I'm betting it'll be easier to fill 2B with a more impactful player, so I'm ok with keeping Polanco at SS.
  23. jmlease1
    Not sure about the interest in DeRosa or Ross. Neither leaps off the page as being a must-hire. Maybe those are the smoke screens. Espada is a pretty interesting candidate, I think.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm fine with leaving Polanco at SS. I agree with Tom: I'm not sure the gains we're likely to get on D are worth what we're likely to give up on offense. Of course, you have to look at it holistically: we have to fill a hole in the middle infield this offseason. Where are we more likely to find success and increased overall production? Despite losing Polanco for half a year, Dozier being awful, Sano & Buxton being injured and awful, Morrison adding nothing, and Kepler not improving on offense the twins still finished 6th in the league in scoring, and the top 5 teams in the AL in scoring made the playoffs. Maybe we're better off with the offensive-minded SS?
  25. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous that Cave will fall off next year; the .368 BABIP and the 33% K rate make me nervous about the sustainability of his approach, especially now that teams will have plenty of tape on him. Still a fine pickup, but I think I would have put Rogers emergence as a guy to be counted on in the 'pen might end up being more notable. feels like the only issue for Rogers is whether or not his ability to keep the ball in the park this year was fluky or a sign for the future. but even if he regresses a little there, he's still a guy who can be an important piece in the bullpen. I'm really happy for Gibson, a guy I bashed relentlessly for most of this season. I called him The Tease for months. I'm happy to be proven wrong about him. I think his success this year IS sustainable, because it's the result of a different approach, not just a little luck. Changing up his pitch mix and his approach really did change his results and he was a consistent pitcher all year. This should be repeatable, and I'm happy to have him in the rotation next year.
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