jmlease1

He needs to repeat 2017 to have a shot at coming back, I think. second real factor is the dollar amounts. If he's willing to play on a 2/$12M deal or something like that, I think the Twins find room for him if he can still produce at least at a 2017 level, regardless of what Morrison does, or Sano's ability to stick at 3B. If he wants $10-15M...then he'll have to find it elsewhere (which he won't, I suspect, even if he repeats 2017 production). If the production slips back again to 2016 or (gah) 2015 levels, the Twins will move on. Frankly, I suspect if Joe has a season anywhere like 2014-2016 he'll strongly consider retiring. He strikes me as the sort of guy who won't stick around if he can't produce. It might create a little roster crunch and some issues where the ABs don't string out as perfectly as you'd like, but Joe Mauer was a valuable baseball player last season. If he stays a valuable player and the money doesn't get silly...you look for a way to keep him. (not having to go with a 12-13 man pitching staff at all times would help)

I'm a little concerned that there's not another prospect that could be ready to step in at 3B in the next two years. Because I think it's fair to be concerned about Sano's ability to stick at the position or in the organization and Escobar isn't a young guy any longer. People are worried about organizational depth at catcher; I'm worried about it at 3B. Right now, none of the middle infield prospects we have starting to claw their way up the ranks look like contenders to shift over there, and our best prospect looks to be a) several years away, and hardly a sure thing. (I'm rooting like hell for Blankenhorn, but he's got some things to work on) For this season, we're in excellent shape. Next year? Two years from now? the poundage isn't the only weight resting on Sano.

I dont think it's unusual to have these hiccups in a system where you dont have the smooth pipeline at every position. I'd love to have the next version of Mitch Garver be coming off some solid time at AA and being seriously considered for promotion to AAA, but there's always a few hiccups there. Castro is set to start, Garver looks ready to be the number #1 backup and get some extra ABs against LHPs. Twins are betting that if Castro goes down for a short period of time that Garver can step up and handle it, and that's not an unreasonable bet. Lets be honest: how great is the catching depth in MLB? I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins comb the waiver wire coming out of Spring Training to shore up a little AAA depth, which is probably the right choice. I'm intrigued by Rortvedt and it'd be ideal if hes starting to press his way up the system by the time Castro's contract is up and they can swing him onto the roster the same way they are bringing Garver along.

veteran presence is pretty meaningless, I think. Grossman's OBP and ability to play (albeit poorly) in the OF is what keeps him over Vargas. Hughes has zero value in a trade right now, only way someone takes him is if we eat a big chunk of his salary and we'd probably need to dangle someone better than Vargas to get in the C-B range for prospects. We'd be lucky to get a C for Vargas straight up right now, since teams know he's likely to get cut. Frankly, if Hughes is in the package it probably reduces the value of the prospect we get even if we eat most of his salary.

I just think we should have been able to find a better insurance policy than a Erick Aybar, who hasn't hit in three years and whose defense is on the decline. And I'm completely baffled by the people who think he should be considered an option over Adrianza; there's almost no chance Aybar becomes the player he was 4 years ago again. It's much more likely he's unable to replicate even last season's modest success being on the downward plane of his fine career. Adrianza is almost 6 years younger and was a better player last year. He's much more likely to do at least as well this season than the guy who just turned 34. I'd say 3B is an area where we don't have much system depth right now.

I deeply dislike the idea that Aybar might be handed a job, because unless he suddenly starts killing it in spring training, I don't see him being anything better than replacement level, and there's decent odds he'll just flat-out suck. He can't hit enough to play anything other than SS, and his defense is slipping. Is this seriously the best insurance plan we could come up with if Sano gets suspended? I keep reading that the Twins won't need a 5th starter the first month of the season, so that makes the rotation battle very interesting. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Kyle "the Tease" Gibson (I'm going to keep flogging that nickname until Gibby puts together a consistent season again; after 2 straight seasons predicting him as ready to break out, I refuse to get fooled again) are locked. Meija vs Hughes for the 4th spot is interesting; I think Meija could win that and push Hughes into the bullpen for the start of the season as the long man, but if Hughes wins it, Meika goes to the minors to start. I think it's an 8-man (yuck) bullpen to start the season. Seth has the right suspects up there; my bet on #8 is Hughes if he's not starting or Busenitz if Hughes makes the rotation.

I'm starting to wonder if we're ranking Littell too low? http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2018/02/zack-littell-best-starting-pitching-prospect-twins-organization/ I think he's someone that's going to be really interesting to watch. Is he having outsized success because he's got a more advanced approach and control than hitters can handle at his level? Is it sustainable? I don't really care much about the W-L in the minors, but the peripherals are better than I thought. It would be fantastic if he can start just eating up innings. There are a ton of fun prospects on this list, lots of guys that are easy to root for. Sure, there's a lot of hope and dreams involved and a bunch of these guys are probably going to flame out or never reach their ceiling...but what if they don't? What if we hit a run where guys stay healthy and start maximizing their potential? there's a ton of talent here and the best part about mooning over prospects is thinking about what could be.

I love this kid. The early returns are great, and I hope his performance keeps pushing him quickly and steadily up through the system. Cedar Rapids looks like the perfect spot for him to start off this season, and we can let his performance drive when he gets moved up to Ft. Myers. but I would not be shocked if he got a spring training invite in 2020. It'll be fun to see how he tracks against Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay, since it seemed like those were the three players the Twins had been focused around (maybe Kyle Wright too?). It sort of reminds you of the 2001 draft, right? You had people back then pushing hard to take Mark Prior, the more polished pitcher who was MLB-ready or even Mark Texiera over Joe Mauer. Twins made the right then, and I hope they made the right choice this time too. Right now, nothing to suggest they made a bad call. (Looking back on the 2001 draft is kind of fun: Mauer has a small edge over Texiera and David Wright as the best players to come out of the early rounds of that draft class, and there's no question he was the right choice over Prior, who was cooked by age 25.)

I liked the move, I just don't think it moves the needle on the top end of the rotation like I (and most) were hoping. And I don't really see us grabbing Arietta, so that makes me nervous, especially with ervin missing some time at the start of the season. The price was right and he's a good pitcher when healthy...let's just hope he's healthy? Gah. I hate having to hope twins pitchers are healthy. Hasn't gone great for us recently.

If he can develop a reliable changeup, he's got a big future as a starter, I think. I'd love to see him get 150 innings or so between AA-AAA while working on that changeup and refining his control a little. I don't want him to go to the bullpen unless he flames out as a starter. Sure, it's be nice to see him flinging that gas at people in the late innings and watching people flail at the slider to close things out, but I want to see what he can do as a starter. He's got two plus pitches and if he can make a little more out of that changeup he could be an ace. Let's give him the chance.

Berra is actually a really good comp in a lot of ways. Yogi hit for more power, Joe got on base a lot more...but otherwise the biggest difference is Yogi was able to stay behind the plate longer. both started in MLB at age 21 and didn't play much (Joe injured his knee, Yogi got a cup of coffee with the '46 Yankees) but took off almost immediately thereafter. Yogi played 19 seasons and accumulated exactly 6.1 additional bWAR over Joe. The other big difference is Yogi played on one of the greatest dynasties in all sports. he was a great player who played with other all-timers and as a result he got to play in the world series 14 times. But they're not really all that far apart, and Yogi is considered an inner-ring, no-doubt HoFer and we've forgotten just how good Joe Mauer really was and is. Ted mentions other catchers who have won batting titles, and one of them is an excellent comp for Joe Mauer: Ernie Lombardi. The big man won two of them, in fact, and he and Mauer grade out pretty evenly overall on the offensive end. Of course, Lombardi did it over 17 seasons and we only have 14 for Joe, but Ernie's in the Hall (deservedly so) and Joe's got the edge on him in WAR no matter who you look at already. Both won MVPs, both were best known for their ability to hit the ball, both grounded into quite a few double plays. I think people downgrade Joe Mauer because they think we should have seen a few more years like the MVP year, that he wasn't worth the contract, that he should have somehow found a way to "carry the team"...but the reality is, he's the best player this generation of Twins fans have seen play for the team and I hope he a) has another good year, and b ) we can find a way to keep him on the club aother couple of seasons.

I like Gordon. The floor seems high, but the ceiling is uncertain. It's not a bad thing to have a few of those prospects in the top end of your system to balance out the high-ceiling lottery tickets many other prospect are. Hedging some risk against the busts keeps young players flowing into the roster. For a club like the Twins (who can't simply buy their way out of a mistake/bad luck every year), you need some of this to keep young talent consistently flowing in. Gordons hit tool justifies his ranking, I think. He looks to be a high average middle infielder with a solid OPB and his power has been increasing. There's a lot of value in that when you look around at the rest of the league. If he can improve his defensive consistency he can be a starting middle infielder for a long time. If he can't land a comfortable home, he still could likely end up as an Eduardo Nunez type guy who backs up multiple positions to get 300-400 good ABs for you every year. That would be disappointing to Twins fans considering his current ranking, but again: there's still value there and that's what I see as his floor. There's nothing that says bust on this kid; the question marks are all restrictions on his ceiling. He needs to work on his D, hitting lefties, and using his speed better. That's not unusual for a lot of minor leaguers at his age and level. He'd make a useful september call-up on his current glide path, but if he take a strong step forward this season he'll push for a lot more. Absent a trade, I expect him to be with the big club full-time in 2019.

This. Mid-20's Mauer was a monster. 3 batting titles before he was 27 as a catcher! half his career he's hit over .300 Last season was a heck of a rebound and if he can do it again and finally get his deserved Gold Glove...he'd be a heck of an asset again. Certainly worth keeping around if he wants to stay. Mauer was a HoFer in my mind before last season, because he was such a great catcher. Adding in a few additional seasons like last year just cement his place in history. But he's a truly great player.

I'm excited about Gonsalves. The makeup looks great, he's got the pitches to succeed, he just need more experience against higher levels of competition at this point. The velocity on the fastball doesn't concern me as much from a lefty; we've seen guys do just fine without needing the elite heat from that side of the plate (and its not like low 90's is slow!). If he can get the curve in shape as a useable 4th pitch hes going to have a nice arsenal to work with, and it'll give him options on a day where he's not spotting the slider/cutter as effectively. I love the changeup from him and that can be such an awesome offspeed pitch. Starting him in AAA makes sense, but I won't be shocked to see him up with the club by June.

I can see the objection to ranking him this high coming off a significant injury that cost him an entire year of development time. but his debut was pretty terrific and TJ has never been as scary a prospect for position players as it is for pitcher. I might have downgraded him a little on the list for it, but not much. There's something delightful about him playing with Royce Lewis this season, and if they move on a similar track through the system it could be a huge boost for the Twins. Getting two players with all-star ability arriving around the same time really has an enormous impact. I think he's going to hit. A lot. Looks like he could end up with a plus arm and already seems to be doing well in his decision-making. If he keeps a decent range now that he's adding muscle, he'll be a nice addition in the corner OF spots.

Can't wait to see how he does in full-year play against less random competition. (let's face it, rookie ball has a lot of lottery tickets and never-will-be's in it) there's a ton to like and he's a fine prospect. I think he'll likely have some significant advancement in at least one area of his skill set, but I have no idea what that will be. I'm guessing it might be defense; he's talented enough that at this level he could keep swinging at way too many pitches...and still have big success as a hitter. Have to stay patient with this guy, but it's going to be fun watching him and Lewis chase each other through the system.

Spring Training is all about the pitching staff for this club. Figuring out the rotation, settling roles in the bullpen, and working out whether or not this team can survive the first month with only 12 pitchers. I have to assume they're going to either make a trade or sign someone for the rotation. There's just no way we can start the season with it being Berrios, Meija, Gibson, May, and Duffey (or any of the minor league guys filling out the back end.) we'd need 14 pitchers, minimum, to stay afloat until Ervin comes back because none of those guys has shown consistent ability to go late in games. (I just can't trust Gibson any longer. I promoted him for the last two spring trainings as a guy ready to take the leap forward and he's crushed my hopes every time with his secret identity as The Tease. Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action. Not letting it happen to me again!) I feel better about the bullpen than I have in a while; the combination of MLB-ready prospects, guys returning from injury, and veteran reinforcements makes me think we might be solid out the gate instead of floundering. The lineup is good to go: Garver slots in at backup catcher and helps gives some guys a day off if he shows he can hit enough. I'd like to see Granite as a 4th OF, but I'm not sure he's going to hit enough. but he'd make a great late-game defensive replacement and let Buxton get some days off.

Wow, that 2017 draft has the potential to be pretty outstanding. Hard not to like Rooker at this point, and it would be great if he's able to move aggressively through the system. I'd like to see him cut down the K's too; I get that it's considered acceptable with his power production, but it'd be nice for someone with his apparent batting eye to make a little more contact too. I think he probably starts the year in Ft. Myers and moves up quickly. How he responds to facing AA pitching is going to say a lot, and whether or not he can start handling the really explosive breaking stuff along with guys who are starting to learn how to pitch, not just dominate through sheer stuff. I loved this pick when we made it, and the early returns are right where you'd hope they'd be.

young pitchers in the low minors like this are kind of like lottery tickets, aren't they? So many things need to happen with this kid before we really know anything. The 100 mph fastball and slider potential are tantalizing, and it's great to have a prospect like this...but I wouldn't rank him so high. Not for a pitcher at his age, experience level, and with his injury history. The potential is sky high, but so is the bust factor.

If Thorpe stays healthy for a full season this ranking will look low in retrospect, but his history makes this the right sort of spot for him. I want to believe, and I'm really rooting for him but injury history can be hard. This will be Garver's last year on a prospect list, since he's almost certainly going to graduate to the big club. Let's hope his cup of coffee helped him acclimate and a defined and consistent role helps him get off to a good start. If he gets 200 ABs this year and can out-hit Gimenez, that will be a nice result. Littell is interesting. The performance has been impressive. He's pitched in 5 different leagues in 2 years and done well in all of them. Control slipped a little when he came to the MN system, but that could be SSS, it could be league adjustment, trade adjustment...who knows? Rochester seems like the right place for him to start, and if he keeps mowing his way through lineups, you have to think he could be a factor in the rotation in the second half of the year. Maybe he's going to be one of those guys who gets just enough Ks, doesn't give up the HRs, doesn't walk too many guys, doesn't get hit real hard and just chews through unspectacular outings time after time. It will be interesting to see if he can get deep into games consistently; he still doesn't have a ton of innings.

I think this is about right for Rortvedt; let's see how he progresses with the bat this season. If he can hit like the second half over the course of a full season, I'll be very encouraged. I think the team can afford to show some patience with him, and he looks like a C+ range prospect (to use a sickels grade) that could easily get himself into B range territory with only modest improvement at the plate. I might have ranked Jay a little higher, because he should progress quickly now that he's back in a bullpen role but this seems fine. I was hoping he could transition to a starting role because I also thought he had the pitches to do it, but it's time to move on. I wonder: will his brief time working as a starter help him function in a multi-inning capacity in the bullpen? Wouldn't it be wonderful if he became the sort of pitcher who could come in as a fireman in the 5th-6th inning and finish off 1-2 batters and then still stay hot to go in the 6th-7th? Clearly his drop has more to do with the change in role and the injury history than his ability, so seeing him fall so far on the prospect chart doesn't bother me as much.

I like doing it this way better than just a straight list of top 15/25, although it gets weird if a team is especially strong at one position over the years...but that's part of the fun! I'm also very comfortable with cheating a little by sticking the Killer at DH, even though he never played it as a Twin. I'd have to take Gaetti over Koskie (longevity does matter), and I agree: LF has not been a position of strength for the Twins. That said, I'd take Bob Allison for the spot over Mack; Shane just didn't spend enough time in MN or in LF, really. And Bob Allison was really, really good. Zoilo vs Smalley at SS is a hard one, but Zoilo probably didn't have enough good seasons (I dunno if I can give extra credit to Smalley for his last three seasons, since a) he barely played short and didn't hit well enough to justify being a full time DH, though). Also, calling Gaetti "Punto before Nick Punto" is a pretty big insult to Gary Gaetti. Torii definitely makes my bench as a 4th OF and with this pitching staff I don't think you need more than a 5 man bullpen, so live a little and roll out a bench with: Knoblauch & Zorro to hold down the INF, Battey as the back C, Torii laughingly complaining about not getting to play enough as the 4th OF, and let Koskie and Morneau fight it out for the last slot. (think Justin lets Corey have it if you tell him he's got to back up Gaetti at 3B?) Regarding the rotation: I'd give Bert the top slot (he didn't get Johan's hardware, but he was just as dominant in his first stint with the Twins as Johan was in his years and had a nice coda for the championship run in '87 where he was still a very fine pitcher) and slide Frankie V into the 3rd slot over Kaat. Kitty pitched forever, but he was never a dominant pitcher with the Twins and Sweet Music absolutely was. I'd consider Perry over Pascual, but either is a fine choice for the last slot. I suppose it depends on if you give a little extra credit to Pascual for the Senators years.

Sandlot. TK at the end is just the best.

Rob Neyer wrote a very fun book that looks at exactly this topic, <a href=http://robneyer.com/baseball-books/big-book-of-baseball-lineups/>The Big Book of Baseball Lineups</a> and I highly recommend it to any baseball fan. It's a bit dated now, but part of the fun today is thinking about how many recent players would seize a spot from someone else.

Cody said right before he wrote up his list: "The list below is limited to players whose seasonal ages for 2018 are 24 or younger—that is, any player who will not yet have turned 25 on July 1, 2018. Players like Miguel Sano and Max Kepler don’t qualify because they will turn 25 before July 1st." Not an oversight, not an omission: it was a decision based on how he set up the rules. Gordon has a super high floor for a prospect. Where his ceiling end up is yet to be determined. I feel very good about Royce Lewis so far.