Maybe this is a more succinct way to put it: In order for the tag and trade to work the following has to be true:
1) Darnold and his agent are willing to play ball to facilitate themselves to a certain team
2) There exists at least one clear suitor who is pursuing aggressively and doesn't want to risk the market.
3) The money in his expected contract is close to the tag amount
4) Draft compensation reflects that there are other suitors at this price tag and willing to also trade.
At one point I was thinking this was possible, but at that time I believed the Raiders had shown their cards. Yesterday threw that completely out of the water. I don't think 3 is true based on all reporting. He's likely to come in 25-40% lower than the tag. As a result, I don't think 4 is true. There may be multiple suitors, but not at 40M. Since there is hesitation on asking price, I think that eliminates 1 and 2. Sucks to lose out on a potential pick, but the current QB carousel seems like crazy town.