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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    I don't think that's fair. I think the best counter-argument to a lot of the "don't sell" folks who are blaming the front office is this: You want to bank on the same players who are 8 games under .500 to make some kind of magical run. They've played about 100 games and can't manage a .500 record. Sure, maybe they could make a flukey run, but gambling on that is going to fail the vast majority of the time. If you don't like what the FO is doing because you want a chance at the playoffs, I get the emotion. But you know who is really at fault? Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and all the other underperformers that have brought this team to the point where it is 8 games under .500 and nearly double digits out from the division leader. Maybe the FO gets some blame for that too, but they shouldn't get blamed for reading the tea leaves correctly and shopping the assets that have value.
  2. TheLeviathan
    It's looking harder to see a spot for Dozier out there. He may be an August candidate, but I would be a bit surprised if he cleared waivers.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Well, it's also possibly $2 or $3. Just to keep things fair in that analysis. It's also worth noting that, in this scenario, eventually your $1 will turn into $0 all on it's own.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Did you know we're only 4 games from being 11 back? Why would anyone buy when they are nearly 11 back? I don't see anyone pulling shenanigans like that and you'd be setting your hair on fire if they were. It's the definition of misleading. What fangraphs has is a statistical projection with no intent to reframe things other than through their model. That's a very, very different thing.
  5. TheLeviathan
    I'm glad to see the Kaufman love, that is just a really beautiful, fun park.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I love the high-upside Class A/AA approach of the first two trades. But I think if Gibson is moved the return needs to be closer to contributing to the big leagues.
  7. TheLeviathan
    These are flukes. You can't count on enormous surges to carry you. Saying they are 4 games back of being 4 games back is a misleading way to frame their current status.
  8. TheLeviathan
    I just think people are still coming off the surge from last year and there seems to be a quiet expectation that the same thing is about to happen. Maybe it does. It still might, I don't think Escobar and Pressley make or break that. But we're not within 2 or 3 or 4 games,that's half of what the current deficit is. So, I think it's important we keep in mind where we actually are, not what we hope we might be.
  9. TheLeviathan
    One thing I really hope is that as guys are traded we see players get seasoning at the big league level that need it. This is wehre we need to give Gonsalves, Moya, Gordon, etc. the time to get their feet wet. It'll give us something to be invested in. Along with (hopefully) positive progress from Buxton and Sano.
  10. TheLeviathan
    That's all fine and good, but we don't have time to see how those games with Cleveland play out. We have to look at the more realistic odds as they stand today. While it wouldn't be irrational to try, it's also not particularly sound gambling either.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Again, swinging for upside. I like it.
  12. TheLeviathan
    Alcala can touch 102 according to scouting reports.
  13. TheLeviathan
    That's a solid return. 10 and 12 on the Astros list for MLB earlier this year.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Fine, but we're not in gray area. We're only in a gray area if you insist on 12.5% against much more realistic projections. The gray area you're fighting for is more like difference between 1% and 7%, which is a silly hill to die on IMO.
  15. TheLeviathan
    There are absolutely posters doing exactly that. Judging every trade negatively based on little more than "I want to win" and not putting any context into their criticism. It's ok to not like the returns on deals. It's ok to be unhappy we're in this position. But that civil discussion you want is also derailed by people effectively pouting about the reality of our situation. That isn't helpful either.
  16. TheLeviathan
    We are under .500 and 7.5 games back. We were 12 back at the time of the deal. While 4.5 games is significant, it's still well within "time to sell".
  17. TheLeviathan
    That's fine. But we're judging the actions of the team and the FO...they don't (and shouldn't) make decisions based on fun or deliberate delusion about the chances of the team this year. If you're mad this team isn't more fun this year, don't blame the trade deadline - blame the crappy performance of the team that got them to a 48-53 record and sell-mode. The deadline is about facing reality, choosing now to stamp your feet in anger at this season's failures is really misguided and childish.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I like Escobar and I hope he comes back next year. But I love the approach here by the Twins, rather than take a AAAA guy or someone like that, they went with guys that have high upside tools that could be nice additions if they can develop them. They weren't scared off by age or level of development, they went for upside. I will always dig that.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Yes,it's overstating things, but if you're hanging your hat on 12.5%....well, doesn't that say a lot right there?
  20. TheLeviathan
    This is roughly the same logic as foregoing your mortgage payment to buy lottery tickets....because that's more fun.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I think we should start blanket posting "Remember how we got Eduardo Escobar?" to every post who is gunshy about trading. At some point, when you are about to no long have a player, it's worth rolling the dice that you can turn them into a dude you might have for awhile longer.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Well, from those old leaks from Houston, I think you have to do more than field calls. Teams also need to call to start talks as a seller. I think making a deadline deal needs to work from both directions and not just about waiting for it to land in your lap.
  23. TheLeviathan
    The DH will be universal. The game will be better for it.
  24. TheLeviathan
    The bleachers are fun, but the park is hard to get in and out of, very uncomfortable, and prone to brutal weather. It's just a really run=down place to spend a few hours IMO. The history is fine the first time, after that all you notice is the latrines and rubble.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Typically....sure. I might accept that if the "We still have a chance" folks also acknowledged that the chance they speak of is as a remote as a Powerball ticket.
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