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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    I agree we can't draw specific conclusions and in general I agree with your analysis. But I think the most comparable player to Buxton is Josh Donaldson, except that Buxton has even larger red flags in his profile than Donaldson. There are a couple other factors involved on both sides (Donaldson with a much more established track record of production, Buxton younger, etc.) but I have a really, really hard time believing any GM looking to keep his job is going to give 5 years of term, with no conditions, to a player so incapable of staying on the field. I think it's highly likely he has to accept the shorter "make good" deals unless he comes back from this most recent injury and is an ironman until FA next year. Then all bets are off.
  2. TheLeviathan
    The open market should inform any action you take. Otherwise you are bidding against yourself/your own desperation/player's delusion. If that's the case I don't see why you would entertain the idea at all.
  3. TheLeviathan
    What if he's not getting anything close to that kind of term? Teams have shifted to being willing to pay higher AAV at the expense of term because they've started to realize large, short contracts are less likely to become franchise-killers. I could see someone giving Buxton a healthy "make good" contract with a shocking AAV. What I can't see is anyone want to budge on keeping the term incredibly short because of the enormous risk he carries.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Yeah we are all guessing. Hell....maybe he gets 6/180 if the next year and a half is healthy and amazing. But I think 3/70 is a more likely number given the significant risks and the trends league wide. Go ahead and pull up contract trackers over the last 5 years. Contracts over 4 years simply arent happening as much, much less with this level of risk.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Worth noting....the frequency of 5+ year deals has dramatically tailed off in recent years. Only the most elite players with few risks are getting contracts like that. I feel like a lot of these projections are ignoring a significant change in trends. Aaron Hicks was a much healthier player than Buck and that deal looks terrible now. Plus it has zero chance of being signed in today's market.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I think what the Twins gave Donaldson could be helpful. Donaldson was older with a much more established track record of success but got 4/92. I think he is far more likely to see short term, make good offers as teams hesitate to invest in free agency in general, much less players with huge red flags.
  7. TheLeviathan
    A podcast concerning this. Comment section weighs in too: https://www.startribune.com/bally-sports-north-fans-adjusting-twins-timberwolves-wild-lynx-minnesota-united/600071521/
  8. TheLeviathan
    I just want to commend you for a highly interesting post that probably took you some time to put together!
  9. TheLeviathan
    Alright smarter basketball minds than me.....should we pursue Simmons and move him to PF? (And make him shoot with his actual dominant hand!) I assume it would be a D-Lo for Simmons move.
  10. TheLeviathan
    These are the kind of arguments necessary when you're trying to make a case that just doesn't make any sense. Byron Buxton, if he were a free agent in two months, would not get a $100M contract. No GM, anywhere in the league, is going to sign on for that. None. Could he get a 1 year 20M deal? Sure. Maybe even 2/40. Someone might bet on the potential but they'd hedge the years or make it incredibly incentive driven. In the age of analytics he would be lucky to get half of a 5/100M contract straight up. Berrios, on the other hand, is not only certain he could get 5/100 but it's likely low for what he'd get on the open market. This conversation is really that simple. If you're convincing yourself Buxton is worth 5/100 but not Berrios, you're going to have to engage in some pretzel logic to get there.
  11. TheLeviathan
    This. Any other take is like buying a mansion because you're convinced that next lottery ticket is "the one" It's fundamental asset mismanagement of the worst kind: ignoring the obvious on fool's hope.
  12. TheLeviathan
    You are literally agreeing with the original post but continuing to claim you disagree with it. It's nonsensical. At best you devolved to pure semantics about the words ability and trait which is fallacious and unfair.
  13. TheLeviathan
    It came up because it seemed odd as a sarcastic dig at a post that agrees with you. I think the problem came when you bristled at a completely innocuous post, not with your overall point. You found (or implied at the very least) disagreement where there really was none. I think we all share lament that the young man can't play and there isn't much he can do about it.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Durability is a natural athletic ability and the extent to which it can be improved is limited. Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, and pretty much every other human on the planet has no chance of improving their speed to the degree that Buxton possesses. Minor improvements? Sure. But they can't transform into something they're not. Likewise, there is nothing Buxton can do about his natural durability and resistance to injury. It's simply not a gift he was blessed with. It's not a "skill" like hitting or throwing a curveball, it's more like how fast you run or how tall you grew. At this point I'm not even sure what you're trying to say. I'll leave it at this: The original poster just lamented that for all of Buck's talents, he wasn't blessed with the ability to stay on the field and there's nothing he can do about that. And it sucks for all of us, but especially his career. Whatever "weird" road you took us down from there is due to your interpretations of that rather simple, and IMO undeniable, observation.
  15. TheLeviathan
    It's definitely not a rights violation because this kind of enforcement and oversight is a power given to the league, in negotiations, with the player's association. They've already consented to enforcement and inspection, if necessary.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Well with a sound counter-argument like that, including insults, how could I possibly disagree? Strange to visit message boards and then be completely uninterested in discussions.
  17. TheLeviathan
    If almost all their customers are stealing......yes they should. Especially if they know their department managers as actually facilitating the shoplifting by giving them tricks for how to avoid being caught. Yeah, baseball was lazy and stupid in the past. They deserve condemnation, but now the behavior has to stop. The only way to know guilt, because of how slick these guys have become at this, is to do a quick inspection. Just like taking drug tests or anything else that maintains fair play. If you wait until you can somehow prove guilt all you really do is encourage more slick cheating. Consistent enforcement and observation is the best way to stem the tide.
  18. TheLeviathan
    If pitchers don't want to be hassled they should have been complying with the rules for the last few years. Instead they brazenly spit all over them and now find it appropriate to whine that the league is enforcing fair play. I don't get the manager challenges, just check every half inning when nothing is going on anyway. No one is harmed by that unless they're cheating. What's not good for the game is consistently turning a blind eye to blatant cheating... Especially when that cheating is having a demonstrably negative effect on the game between the lines.
  19. TheLeviathan
    You quoted something but then interpreted it in a really strange way.....Let's try a simple analogy by using the same phrase you think is so dastardly and then subbing a few words: If I say "Kepler doesn't have the same ability to run the bases as Buxton"....have I somehow created an "onus for Kepler to cultivate that"? I would think not. It's just an acknowledgement of natural ability and natural abilities vary from player to player. Can Kepler work around the edges of his speed or baserunning to make modest improvements? Sure. I feel like Buxton did that by adding some muscle in fact. But at the end of the day, just like speed and power, durability is something I'm not sure you can fix. And some players, again just like speed and power, either have it or they don't. You seem to acknowledge what the poster said, but then twisted it for some reason I can't understand. Nowhere in that post does it blame Buxton for anything, that's something you read into it. (Unfairly, IMO, given how easily your example can be exposed by analogy) Yes, it's not in his control, but there is no reason not to acknowledge it either. The guy has been a pro for almost a decade now and this is what it is. His body just doesn't allow all that talent to stay on the field. It sucks. I feel bad for him most of all.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I think Byron Buxton is actively losing money not being on the field. This argument doesn't wash because, especially in baseball and now more than ever, teams are hesitant to dole out money to players they can't count on in the field. I think this post implies Buxton isn't "tough" which is different than acknowledging he isn't "durable" or "available". Make no mistake, every IL stint he has potentially costs him MILLIONS.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I really think you read something in that wasn't there. It is a criticism of just, for whatever each individual reason, Buxton cant be available. It isn't to blame Buxton but acknowledge the reality. We should all be at that point with Donaldson too.
  22. TheLeviathan
    No and that's a fallacious argument. The poster you responded to clearly said that injuries have a large component of luck to them. I will make no argument that Buxton's hand injury was some really terrible luck. But the point of that post was to put this unlucky break in the context of what seems like an endless array of "unlucky" breaks. At some point constantly falling victim to injuries of all sorts stops being a pattern we can deny based on luck and one we simply have to recognize isn't going away. Not all athletes can match their amazing skillset with durability. It sucks, he's a great person and a great player, but at some point we have to come to terms with the reality of his ability to stay on a baseball field.
  23. TheLeviathan
    I would prefer the first option without the second half of it. I'd leave it as of now, but a continuing trend endangers players and at that point something has to be done. You can't allow your product to be harmed because pitchers are indifferent to how many people they hit. I feel like we need a megathread - Baseball: All the Ways It's Bleeding to Death. (hemorrhaging may be better....)
  24. TheLeviathan
    Is there a way to gamble on court cases? Cuz I'm taking basically anyone versus the NCAA based on this decision.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Buxton has no business in a comp with Junior. That's more akin to Trout now tailing off hard. Buxton has nowhere near that equity. Mark Prior seems better.
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