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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    they definitely didn't pick a who's who list of guys that didn't make it back. If they had picked a group of guys that didn't make it back that had also been relatively young and successful then it would make a better argument. but my statement remains: R&R hasn't been shown to be successful outside of a very limited number of examples and TJ for anyone good has been very successful (Ambroxis Burgos doesn't change that). Alex Meyer has shoulder problems. That is a completely different issue and perhaps one that is scarier since labrum surgery has a lower success rate than TJ.
  2. kab21
    It's too bad they couldn't tack on an option year at 12-15M but it's hard not to like this from the Twins side. It's also much, much less than people were predicting for his arb years.
  3. kab21
    They broke it down by age group but they didn't break it down by success before TJ. The names that they listed as not coming back after surgery - Ambiorix Burgos. Anthony Reyes. Macay McBride. Bill Simas. Bill Bray. B.J. Ryan. Taylor Buchholz. Victor Zambrano. Additionally Twins fans list Joe Mays (200 awful innings post TJ) Aside from Ryan (old) and Reyes (I liked him as a prospect) this is a who's who list of mediocrity. Mays for example was dreadfully awful after TJ but it seems that Twins fans forget that he was dreadfully awful except for one great season before TJ. I am not surprised that a bunch of mediocre pitchers didn't return to being mediocre pitchers after a major arm injury. My argument isn't necessarily that R&R should completely be scrapped but I do question the benefits of it considering that very few ultimately end up avoiding TJ.
  4. kab21
    The problem with that analysis is that a lot of the players that they mentioned as not coming back weren't very good or getting old in the first place. It shouldn't be surprising that if they took 1-2 years off from baseball after a major arm injury (with or without surgery) that they would struggle to make it back to the majors. It also doesn't address the point that there are very, very few examples of R&R working. I'm waiting for more examples.
  5. kab21
    You picked some ballsy upsets but you were hitting on them left and right.
  6. kab21
    Just because it almost never happens doesn't necessarily mean that rest and rehab should be completely scrapped. I am merely pointing out that there are almost no examples of it working and nobody has actually been able to name more I can count on one hand in the last decade. I also am not sure athletes would agree. Surgery is scary but the most likely option now is that Thorpe loses two years of development instead of one and his lotto ticket (the MLB) is delayed another season. Nolasco's case is a better example of when R&R should be used since he came back and was able to pitch at the end of the season. If R&R had failed on his initial return (in the first month) then he could have had TJ and still only missed one season. I'm not optimistic that he can avoid TJ but there is a better chance since he has thrown at normal velocity for an extended period of time since the R&R.
  7. kab21
    I think it is quite obvious that the R&R method works so few times that at this point it almost shouldn't be considered an option. In the last decade I can only come up with three names where it worked. Wainwright, Santana and Brett Anderson (delayed his 2nd surgery by one year). If you are going to say that something works then you need to have a better success rate than this list. I am sure that somebody else has recovered but I have been asking baseball forums for the last 2-3 years for more examples and nobody has mentioned anyone yet.
  8. kab21
    Perhaps talking about Psuedo's bracket is the same as talking about a no-hitter in progress. Impressive upsets. I'm still doing well but I just lost a final four team so I will only finish in the top half of group. Possibly top quarter.
  9. kab21
    Dyson seems to have become way overrated. He is a pinch hitting and defensive specialist. Cain OTOH might be awesome.
  10. kab21
    Day 1 and I'm almost winning. I wish I wasn't traveling for 2 out of the 3 weekends but I have some pretty awesome trips planned.
  11. kab21
    March Madness is awesome but I just don't have the time to follow it from overseas. I haven't turned my TV on since the Super Bowl and will be traveling this weekend and during the final four but probably back in time for the championship.
  12. kab21
    The team needs a 4th OFer that can play so nothing is hurt if the platoon also fills that role. I have liked the Schafer/Hicks idea the most out of any of the bridges to Buxton.
  13. kab21
    You misunderstand. I don't think he should be moved right now. I simply don't think 3B is his MLB position and that the Twins shouldn't trade Plouffe because they have a 3B in the minors to take over. And the same is true of Rosario. I don't think he is a true MLB CF but the Twins don't have anyone nearly as good as Plouffe at the position. Imo the Twins biggest need is an elite/near elite player (or two) somewhere (anywhere) on the field. They actually have fairly competent player almost everywhere but there are just too many that project as below average (but not awful) to average.
  14. kab21
    That's why it's important to have quantity. The top 20 prospects were quite productive and the twins have 2. And the Twins have quantity also but that's why it's important to not make any MLB plans based on having Polanco in the minors. Several prospects are going to make it but we really don't know who. The analysis didn't look at proximity to majors when ranked though. This is a pretty important part of busts. Players with success in AA/AAA (like Meyer) are less likely to bust than recent draft picks that haven't done much in A ball yet (like Stewart). But it is a really good article. Thanks for posting.
  15. kab21
    Having two utililty players is kind of redundant though. I hate having a bench with a backup C (that can't hit), two utility IF'ers (that don't hit much) and a utility OF'er (that doesn't hit). Great they can defensively cover anything that is thrown at them but they don't have one bench bat that can actually hit. If Vargas, Mauer, Hunter or Arcia need a day off for a random injury then Nunez is getting the start as a DH. Awesome... So far I'm glad to hear that SS is basically Santana's position to lose. This says something about playing for the future and imo Santana at SS is the short term future.
  16. kab21
    I would trade Escobar for a borderline top 100 prospect. Someone like Franklin Barreto that was part of the Josh Donaldson deal or someone like the Twins own Gonsalves that could be a big riser in prospect lists. If you can't at least get that kind of value for him then you keep him because he is actually a decent player. But imo he isn't an average starter at SS but a guy that can play there if needed.
  17. kab21
    The important thing is for the FO to look at the baseball player on the field and determine if he's ready. Stats are important but they only tell a little of the story.
  18. kab21
    It's not that simple. Glen Perkins had 3 pitches and didn't throw particularly hard as a starter. That being said Nolasco is a starter and a healthy Nolasco is a good starter. Unfortunately I think the same fate as Darvish awaits this season.
  19. kab21
    I think we are headed towards an international draft but I'm not sure it's the best idea because the global pool of players is so much larger and spread out. It's not like in the US where teams have personally scouted most of the players (to some extent) in the first 5-10 rounds. Just like the MLB didn't expect (or did they) the consequences of the current penalties as being enough to discourage teams from spending over their cap I think there could be really big consequences of an int'l draft. The only thing that is need to make the current system work is to put a hard cap on the bonus pools that teams simply can't exceed or find a really significant penalty. Nothing wrong with the current system other than the slap on the wrist penalty that they thought would be enough. Really excited if the Twins sign Javier.
  20. kab21
    Being too influenced by what happens on the field is what made Nick Punto a starter before spring training started one year with no backup plan. You need to expect that all 3 of the guys you mentioned as having success on the field are going to regress significantly next season. The basis for this is everything that happened on the field before last year. You can't like results on the field and ignore anything that happened before the most recent season. Schafer has 1400 MLB PA's as a .620 OPS hitter. Escobar has a MiLB OPS of .676 and Santana has a MiLB OPS of .702. It's usually hard for players to match their MiLB numbers in the pros and usually their stats are much lower than their MiLB numbers.
  21. kab21
    Escobar deserves the respect of a really good utility player. Basically Nick Punto and Punto shouldn't have been given any starting jobs. Now perhaps he is a better option than Santana but I still believe that Santana's tools are better and he could be a solid MLB SS even if he isn't a All-star level. I also disagree that Santana is a better utility player. He played a 20-30 games of 2B in each of 2010 and 2012 but very little 2B/3B outside of that. The CF part of the utility doesn't matter as much imo since there will be a 4th OFer to cover that. The Twins need a utility player that they can put in at 2B/3B if either starters needs a day off for whatever reason. If Escobar is the starter then Santana should be in AAA imo.
  22. kab21
    Let's not make all future decisions based on one player's failures. Danny Santana similarly didn't do much at AA before getting a brief cup of coffee at AAA and coming up. Just because Hicks failed doesn't mean another player will also fail.
  23. kab21
    This would be surprising but not completely shocking. He was on pace to come up this season (or even last season) until everything bad that could happen to him happened. It would be nice if he had a few more AB's in the upper minors but when your competition is Hicks and Schafer then it's possible to win the job. He could struggle and we might be hoping for Hicks/Schafer by May but he might be able to outperform them at this point.
  24. kab21
    I'm just hoping that May is the one that gets the 5th spot instead of Milone, Stauffer or Pelfrey. This is kind of like Gibson did last year. I'm not worried about when Meyer will be up. It's going to happen at this point.
  25. kab21
    I have a secret crush on Cameron right now.
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