kab21

No, it is entirely speculative if you think an unproven player with <1 yr experience and a disturbing K:BB ratio can replace a legit all-star. Especially when he never got glowing defensive reports and has barely played 2B in two seasons. I like Rosario and he has a lot of natural ability but this is a little too optimistic.

Why does Berrios need to get shut down soon? That makes no sense. He pitched 160 innings last year and is at 155 this year. Most likely he was denied winter ball because they want him available for the full MLB season next year and don't want him getting 2+ months of winter ball added on. I am not sure I would have him finish the MLB season but he should be able to pitch 180 innings this year unless he looks fatigued. Milone at 5-ish M in arbitration isn't bringing back anything interesting. Make him the swingman RP'er/SP'er depth next season if he can't win a rotation spot.

Dozier is a legit 28 yr old all-star talent. Teams that are rebuilding trade all stars for prospects. When the Twins traded Knoblauch they were hitting bottom and needed to go into full blown rebuild. It would be really depressing right now to be in full blown rebuild. Rosario in absolutely no way replaces Dozier at 2B. It is a decided step down defensively and probably offensively.

He will certainly be here for spring training but it would be a shame if he was gifted a rotation spot because of his sunk/committed cost.

I think people are prematurely discarding Santana because of a season interrupted by an 80 game suspension. I also think that it is especially funny that he somehow is clearly not an AL pitcher despite pitching all but one season in the AL. I think the Morales comparison is interesting though. He missed a substantial part of the season and he was awful. Guess how he is doing this year? .792 OPS - exactly what was expected I would give Santana until the middle of next season before being concerned. I would look at moving him into the bullpen when rosters expand though (or now and send a RP'er down). He is doing awful.

I think he should just be called up but Berrios isn't like Gibson. He is 21 and has #2 potential. Still I call him up.

Should we also not use the nickname King Felix because there were kings that did horrible things? I think it is a silly nickname but there is nothing politically incorrect with the word/name Kaiser. It means emperor and was derived from Caesar and also turned into Czar among other usages in different languages. I hope Kepler is up in September and Berrios is up as a RP'er. Stupid service time issues.

I think too much is made of this MOR starter is more valuable than an excellent setup guy talk. The Twins should figure out who there 7 best pitchers are and slot them into 4 starter spots and 3 RP'er spots.

I never really got into Clancy or Grisham. My latest book was Indonesia, Etc by Elizabeth Pisani where she traveled for a year all over the islands staying in small villages and trying to understand their individual and mixed aspect of their cultures. The bureaucracy is absolutely staggering in Indonesia. Next up might be Shackleton's Stowaway or something else from the shelf. Yes, I have started reading e-books but I still prefer real paper.

Trading Dozier would be very disappointing since it would be a signal that the team prefers to stay in a continual rebuilding mode. This would not be a terrible move if you do it when you are in an obvious tear it down rebuild mode but the Twins aren't at that spot. One of my worst nightmares is that the Twins trade Kepler, Plouffe or someone else because of perceived depth for whatever they can get at C, SS or RP (NO!). This is an almost guaranteed way to lose the trade.

I will definitely be watching this sometime (probably downloading it a season at a time) but I am getting ridiculously busy and am reaching new pathetic lows as far as pop culture is concerned.

Mike Pelfrey (matching Milone) has been the Twins best starter this season with a 3.69 ERA. A lot has been made of Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Milone blocking young pitchers but my worst nightmare is that the Twins bring back Pelfrey to go with them. I cannot imagine the reaction on this board if that happened. So what is your worst Twins offseason nightmare? I know resigning Hunter will be a popular choice. And pick realistic options. Trading Sano for Jose Reyes is truly a nightmare but not one that is going to happen.

Are you also against projecting a batting line (both upside and expected)?

I don't care how many HR's Sano hits in his career. As long as he is hitting 30+ HR's/yr with a tolerable BA and a high OBP I am okay. And if he is doing that then he is a star even if he DH's or plays 1B. I see a .275/.375/.525/.900 hitter. That isn't Miguel Cabrera (the lazy comp) but it is Giancarlo Stanton. His MiLB career is a lot closer to Stanton so if you are going to dream about upside then that is more realistic.

Talking 10 years is ridiculous. The best thing for Sano is to become a FA before he turns 30 and can potentially get a 300+M contract that takes him through the end of his career. He will probably be game to sell one of his FA seasons for a lot of guaranteed money but that is probably all. 2 very hopeful but 3 is unrealistic. 4 is a complete fantasy.

This is a standard answer but it isn't always true. A) it depends on how much better his stuff is out of the pen it depends on how much better the rotation replacements (let's say Duffey) is than the bullpen replacements (let's say Pressly or Graham) In playoff baseball you need 4 starters and 3 RP'ers. Right now there are starters that should be able to reasonably do as well as May in the rotation (Hughes, Santana, Gibson and Berrios) but there isn't anybody other than Perkins that is one of those 3 RP'ers in bullpen. If people don't want to trade prospects for RP'ers then they have to find one somewhere. Like I said this is going to be a divisive topic this offseason. I put May in my rotation but I think many undervalue the importance of having a good to great 7th, 8th and 9th inning bullpen.

I think people are prematurely casting off Hughes and Santana and grouping them with Nolasco and Pelfrey. There is a very good chance that these two are the best starters that the Twins have next season. Nolasco should be given a 1% chance of making the rotation and a 10% chance of making the team next spring training. He has run out of chances (with me). Milone is a tough choice. He has Sam Fuld trade value. He is solid but he is going to get 4-5M next year. It really doesn't make sense to pay him to be a 5th starter or long man ready to be bumped to the rotation. May is going to be a divisive topic all winter. He has looked like an okay starter with potential for more. His stuff is also playing up in the bullpen and he could potentially be a dominant setup guy and future closer. I know that the argument is that a starter has more value than a RP'er but there is a huge advantage when a contender has 2-3 lockdown RP'ers and the game is shortened. I might take a potential lock down setup guy over a 3.75 starter especially when the whole bullpen sucks. Yet I am putting him in the rotation next spring. My rotation Hughes Santana Gibson May Berrios - needs to win the spot in spring training - yes, spring training position battles are silly but Berrios has to look good next spring to retain an inside track Milone - long man pitching 2-3 innings in the bullpen Duffey - AAA That gives the Twins 2 starters for depth and a potentially really good 1-5 although it still lacks a #1 (and possibly a #2).

I would take him back if the roster was setup differently going forward but even if Plouffe is traded there really isn't room for a DH type on the roster.

I am not sure anybody actually reads the articles anymore but rather just looks at the headline and the map. Most of the Great Lakes region ranks poorly in 5 out of the 6 criteria that they chose to rank natural amenities (wtf is that) by. Of course MN is going to rank poorly if winter and flat are in the ranking criteria. The question that should be asked is if the criteria mean anything close to what the author intends.

I really can't comprehend this. Knowingly paying for child prostitutes is a baffling level of depravity. Talking to a female parent like he did in that CNN article is also difficult to believe. And somehow he didn't think this was going to get him in trouble. Baffling.

I think there is reason to be concerned about the so called 'sophomore slump' but for different reasons than Santana. Rosario clearly has more hitting skills than Santana and almost everything backs that up. One difference is that Santana only had to hit enough to be an acceptable SS while Rosario needs to hit enough to be a corner OF'er. My thoughts on Santana in the offseason were that he needed to make progress on cutting down the K's and possibly adding a few walks. For Santana those %'s somehow went the opposite direction. This is absolutely true of Rosario. If you take away .025 pts of BAPIP then he is dangerously close to being <.700 OPS as a corner OF'er. One similarity between the two is that they both swing at more than 40% of the pitches outside of the strike zone. There are good players that do that but it is hard to be an MLB'er doing that. FWIW - ZiPS, Steamer and Depth Charts (via fangraphs) project him at .245/.280/.380 for the rest of the season. And just so people don't misunderstand what I call sophomore slump. Let's group rookies into 3 result categories: underperform expectations (poor rookie year), meet expectations and far exceed reasonable expectations. Sophomore slumps are basically a regression that you should expect from rookies that far exceeded expectations. Rosario is exceeding expectations right now and there are a few advanced stats that should give us at least a mild warning. But this is all the more reason that the Twins should have a plan B in AAA (like Kepler) since none of the 3 starters next year (HIcks, Buxton and Rosario) are sure things.

Jackson was DFA'd in his 3rd season with the Cubs after pitching over 300 horrible innings and 58 GS. Santana has made 9 starts after missing half of a season due to a suspension. Hughes has had an up and down season but he has only had moments when he was dreadfully awful (Jun/Jul were fairly good). There is no way that either of these guys would have been DFA'd by any team in the majors. I could see a team stashing one of them in the bullpen for the remainder of the year but nobody would give up on either of them at this point. Nolasco OTOH has looked terrible for 2 seasons both of which were hampered by injuries. He is getting close to Edwin's level.

Of course you can also win trading prospects. I like the idea of trading prospects for proven players but everything I read in this thread is more of the 1st situation below. 1) We have a surplus of OF'ers (which could easily not be true in a year) and we need to trade one for the best (young) player that we can this winter. This is a way to almost guarantee that you get the short end of the stick. 2) This is how you approach trades. Pick the 3-4 guys that you want and don't include Kepler, Plouffe, Hicks, Rosario, Polanco and anyone else as untouchable for your trade targets. Let the dialogue progress from there.

This is not very different from what I proposed in the thread 1-2 weeks ago but I think I had included even more money and not a 3rd year. I think it is doubtful that a potentially elite player sells 3 of his FA seasons. Two years is probably the max unless the numbers are ridiculous like Trout and Stanton.

Players guys like Santana or Hughes would not have been DFA'd regardless if they were paid the minimum. That is the absolute extreme in knee jerk reactions considering how well they have done in the past.