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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I could see Rooker going to High A to be at the Twins complex. I think Low A is unlikely. They might surprise us and send him to AA though. That would be atypical of the Twins but there is new management in town.
  2. kab21
    If Buxton follows the path of Gomez and Hicks (two comparable toolsy CF'ers) then the Twins will only need to wait 4 more years (age 27) for Buxton to be great. We should also expect Buxton to be traded around 2020 (1-2 years before the breakout). Fun.
  3. kab21
    Rooker isn't actually a senior but a red shirted junior so he is older. I came away thinking the same thing though about drafting the 3 seniors in rds 8-10. But perhaps collectively they allow the team to land one of the higher priced lottery tickets they took in the later rounds
  4. kab21
    I am sticking with mid to upper .700's. This might be gradually climbing but I am trying to stay consistent and not jump all over the place like others. At least we won't see any more threads about whether or not he should be cut since he isn't that good of a hitter and is poor defensively. Gene Larkin has solidified his place on the team.
  5. kab21
    To much risk for the players with getting hurt imo. You would have most of the top 100 players not participating which lessens the benefit of the league. The one thing that I don't understand is why doesn't the draft take place after the final game of the CWS. I am surprised they didn't move things around when they adjusted the signing day a few years ago.
  6. kab21
    Looks like the Twins grabbed a collection of players as backup plans in case their overslot signings (Enlow primarily) in the top 10 rds don't sign. Hopefully they find a way to sign 1-2 of them though. That would really put an exclamation point on this draft imo. Assuming that the top 10 rds sign this has been pretty good imo.
  7. kab21
    Day 1 was a tad confusing but I think the Enlow/De La Torre picks fill out the draft nicely. Leach (and to a lesser extent Barnes) will remain the controversial pick but that could make sense when we see the overslot/underslot amounts for the players taken. These picks (and the later seniors) were probably necessary to sign Enlow and the other overslot choices. And there is still the possibility of another splash with 11-1. Initial grade = B+ (fairly happy with the draft) One good thing is that the Twins didn't spend most of their 2nd-5th rd picks on college RPs. Yes, Duffey has made it to the MLB and a few others could make it this year but I never really liked this strategy.
  8. kab21
    This post is quite premature imo. He should get more chances since he wasn't awful and the Twins only have awful replacement options but it would be great if he was as successful as Scott Diamond (one solid season). 24 IP of video game numbers...
  9. kab21
    I have no problem taking all hitters in the draft. The Twins need pitchers in near future and even the college pitchers might not be as close as people think (in this org or other orgs). Wright up in September and McKay up next year? It is possible but unlikely imo. The faster path to acquiring good MLB pitchers is to have some top prospects to trade and be willing to trade them. The problem with this draft is that it seems as though the Twins could have taken many different combinations of prospects at 1/35/37 that would be more valuable than their choices. But maybe this group goes the Correa/McCullers/Ruiz route and the Twins look like geniuses in a year or two and pull off a big trade.
  10. kab21
    In general yes but the need for pitching is so dire this year and next year that downgrading to Escobar and getting back 1-2 very good AA pitching prospects is defensible imo. I can understand your stance also but this team needs pitching really bad.
  11. kab21
    Pitching is a big problem and that is why I don't trade Ervin away now (unless blown away). I don't try to make the problem even worse.
  12. kab21
    So far this is true but I am just saying that Dozier is somewhat expendable to the Twins while Ervin is at a position of dire need. Alternatively they could trade Escobar to a team needing a SS. The potential for that trade isn't as high but maybe a team offers a Nunez/Mejia type of trade for him. I think Escobar is better than Nunez but I think the Giants overpayed for Nunez so maybe that balances it out.
  13. kab21
    Prospect promotion shouldn't be determined by MLB need. I would feel confident that neither has developed enough to be ready to promote. For example, neither Gonsalves nor Romero have pitched a full season in AA yet and they aren't elite so skipping AAA would likely be a setback this year AND next year. Optimistically they are the AAA pitchers that replace whichever injured/ineffective pitchers the Twins have next year. Promoting them doesn't really speed up that timetable. The Twins will likely have to look elsewhere to fill the rotation imo. But at least there is the prospect of a pair of pretty good prospects coming up at some point next season. I would like to see one or both brought up in the bullpen at the end of the season to get an MLB taste and potentially add a useful arm down the stretch. I wish they had done this with Berrios also.
  14. kab21
    Few people want to trade Dozier but when your rotation includes Gibson and Turley and your MI depth includes Escobar and Adrianza in addition to a top prospect in AA. If I can land a good SP'ing prospect or two for Dozier then I would seriously consider the deal.
  15. kab21
    Nobody is saying to trade the farm system for a rental. The argument is that you don't take an overachieving team and trade one of its most important pieces when they are competing. That is a horrible precedent for both the fans and the players. Are you saying that the Twins will only get back an alright prospect for Santana now? Why is that worth it? Additionally nearly everyone at the time of the Mejia/Nunez trade was like 'Wow, we got that for Nunez!' Using that trade to measure what could be offered for Santana is futile. The Twins also have new management at the top. In addition to that they have the core (mostly offense and Berrios) that looks like it is getting ready to compete (and currently is). For the last 5 years they were cellar dwellers without a young core. Usually teams (most teams) don't go out and sign top FA's at that point in a rebuild. Situations have changed so I wouldn't make a statement as definitive as yours (not going to spend on top FA's).
  16. kab21
    You're banking on the lottery ticket (prospect) that the Twins get back becoming part of the 1-2 punch. That is the definition of needing a lot of things to break the Twins way. In summary Nobody is against trading Santana if a GM puts a Francis Martes level prospect out there (upside and near MLB ready). Nobody is against trading Santana (for less than the above) if the Twins are 3 games under .500 due to a relapse in the next month and a half. But opinion is split on if to trade him when the Twins are winning.
  17. kab21
    Matt Belisle - ugh - When can this end?
  18. kab21
    As long as the team is winning this is something you don't do. Keeping a very good pitcher that is signed for next year is not mortgaging the future as some seem to be claiming. Perhaps Ervin falls off and isn't even a mid-rotation starter next season but that is just guesswork. Of note - Ervin should only be considered a very good 3 (or poor man's 2) that is enjoying a career season right now. The other GMs know his career and his age and that will be reflected in the package of prospects.
  19. kab21
    The Yankees as part of this discussion is a tired comparison and essentially meaningless. The Yankees have winning seasons almost every year and have a sold out stadium regardless. The Yankees also had 3+ elite rentals last trade deadline and brought back elite prospects. They also had replacements at some of the positions they traded. The Twins have zero rentals and negative depth at starting pitching. Trade Dozier for pitching (young MLB or prospects) if there is a deal since there is depth but don't knock a team down that is trying to turn the corner.
  20. kab21
    And this is the argument that I have continually made in favor of Santiago, Gibson and Hughes taking up space in the rotation and 'blocking' Berrios at the beginning of the season. The Twins were going to get to AAAA starters in a hurry like Tepesch and Turley and any others we see this season. None of Santiago (I still like him as a solid 4-ish ERA guy), Gibson or Hughes were going to be great this year but they are at least potentially a big step above AAAA pitchers.
  21. kab21
    It isn't a comp. It is a performance level with a name. Lester (3.47 career ERA) is outside of the elite pitchers but still really, really good. That seems to be where the sentiment here and in the scouting reports seem to view his upside. That is pretty good imo. Greene however certainly has higher upside. I am not comping him to Kershaw but Greene's upside is that of a top 5 dominant pitcher (thus Kershaw). There is almost definitely a lower chance of Greene reaching this upside and a lower chance that he becomes a useful MLB pitcher in any role. That is the balancing of risk with this pick. It is great to go for broke (an ace) but completely missing on the 1-1 pick also really hurts. Scott continues to point out the downside (if he doesn't improve at all) then he is like Gibson or Pelfrey. That is fair to point out as the downside and that is ultimately (non-injury related) where the floor likely is. But that is only one part of the equation. I would not be upset if Greene was the pick FWIW. I can certainly see the argument of picking Wright and don't think some are giving credit that there is a fair amount of upside possible. It isn't like Minor, Leake or Nola who were safe top ten picks that come to mind in the last decade. Higher floors than Wright but not much upside either.
  22. kab21
    The thing I don't like about trading Rubio (and it was a Knicks interest led rumor) is that it makes the Wolves worse next year and the clock has started to tick with regards to the young core. The gamble could pay off and the Wolves might take that money and sign a top FA (with the rest of the cap room) and one of the 3 PG's (Dunn, Jones and the drafted one) could become as good as Rubio but there is downside risk.
  23. kab21
    I was tempted to put Berrios #1 on my list but I need to see a little more to say that he is actually this good RIGHT NOW. After all you said that Tepesch was better than Berrios a month ago. Rogers concerns me for the same reasons that you mention Santana. He is a RP that doesn't strike many out. He has been good so far but could still go Pressly on us.
  24. kab21
    You do know that I wasn't comparing Wright to Santana nor Lester do you? I was putting a performance level target for them. By your analysis you don't seem to like Wright and I would conclude that you don't think he should be an option in the top 10 or perhaps even the first rd if that is where you project him. That is fair but that seems to be in disagreement with many others.
  25. kab21
    Top 3 are easy 1 - Ervin 2 - Berrios 3 - Duffey - Next 4 - nothing great but quality MLB pitchers 4 - Mejia - still not consistent enough but has looked good so far 5 - Kintzler 6 - Santiago 7 - Rogers The rest are nothing special Note - Breslow has been effective so far.
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