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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Yes, he would be an excellent 4th OF but in order for that to happen the Twins need to have 3 other OF'ers that are better than him. Right now the only players with that chance are Kepler, Buxton and Palka but they are far from proven also. I will wait to call him a 4th OF'er until somebody supplants him as a starter.
  2. kab21
    No, actually he is a 1.7 WAR player in 78 games. His numbers can drop considerably and he is likely still a 2 WAR player. Perhaps you missed my look at his stats but I completely expect his HR rate to drop. And even if it does he is still good.
  3. kab21
    And he is still a 2+ WAR player next season as a 24 yr old.
  4. kab21
    If you look at some advanced stats then Kepler can 'slump' in some areas and still be really good. One thing I really like is this swinging strike % is only 8.6%. Sano, Rosario, Buxton and Park are all 13.5%. Kepler is in Dozier, Plouffe, Nunez and Escobar territory and means that there shouldn't be a surprise in K rate next year. In BAPIP he is at .277 and his MiLB BAPIP was .322 so it is likely to rise a little next year. He did post a .254 BAPIP in low A so he might a <.300 BAPIP hitter (MLB BAPIP usually drops from MiLB average). The fangraphs projections expect about .290 (a slight improvement). The big area of concern is that his isoP is .243 right now. This is where his most likely regression takes place. Next year this almost certainly drops below .200 (fangraphs has him .160-.170) but this is where the mysterious 'projection' comes in. He is a big strong kid that hits the ball hard. Does he end up around .200 in a few seasons or does he only have an isoP of .150. But he is a solid bet for a .750 OPS next year. And I would take the over. Conservatively he is a 2+ WAR player next year with potential for more.
  5. kab21
    Buxton needs a reboot. I didn't think he should have been called like Brock mentions but I expected it because of lack of CF options in the org. My preference would be that he doesn't get a Sept callup nor does he get called up until mid season (or later) next year. Let's give him some real time in AAA to not only have a hot streak but also maintain that hot streak. His awesome 30 game streak this year still resulted in a 3:1 K:BB ratio, 20+ % K rate and an almost .400 BAPIP. Kepler is a classic case of a prospect that doesn't look like anything statistically but didn't outright fail. And he requires the mysterious words projection based on scouting analysis. Things don't always show up in stats. For example Travis Harrison has incredible power but he posts isoP's similar to a middle infielder.
  6. kab21
    Age 24 and he isn't going to get better... But the main point is that someone needs to take his starting position by playing better. Unless of course you think that the Twins are going to make a major trade or sign a big FA. I only have 3 possible names within the next 3 years so he might be starting for awhile. Maybe a Jacque Jones level player for the Twins. Ideally a 4th OF'er but there has to be a better option.
  7. kab21
    I certainly understand the pessimistic argument regarding Rosario. I think his ideal role on a playoff contender is as a 4th OF'er playing 100+ games all over the place and PH. But as the Twins are currently put together in addition to the upcoming prospects he is going to have every opportunity to keep his starting spot. And this isn't going to hurt the team much even if he isn't a plus player. For the next couple of seasons the only guys that I see with the ability to take away his starting spot are Kepler, Buxton and Palka. Kepler looks like he has secured his spot with solid peripherals (decent K:BB rates and low BAPIP with a .843 OPS) but even that isn't a lock for next season. Buxton has the upside but some question marks. Palka is intriguing (30+ HR power) but the K's are a concern. I don't see how Walker will contact enough balls in the majors. Granite could be a plan B in CF if Buxton actually does bust but he isn't going to push Rosario out of LF. Rosario will likely be starting for several years and that will be fine.
  8. kab21
    I bring up Palka for everyday AB's and not to be a 4th OF'er. I would rather have Grossman PH instead of Walker. I don't think Walker is a MLB player and wouldn't want a K machine as PH. But the more important thing is that if you cut Grossman to bring up Palka or Walker then he is gone. If 1-2 of the OF'ers gets injured or needs a demotion then OF depth gets really thin really quick.
  9. kab21
    Nobody is saying that he is a good fielder. His SSS this season that you derived your numbers from show him as one of the worst in the majors. That probably isn't true. WAR is a decent stat but I take it with a grain of salt when offense and defense are combined into one number. In addition different sites calculate WAR differently on one site he is 0.4 and on another he is 1.2 for his career (255 games). Why on earth are you signing 30 yr old FA role players to this team? That makes no sense considering where the team is. Take advantage of a guy like Grossman while he is cheap. It is likely that even to get a platoon player that is good defensively that it would cost more than a couple of million.
  10. kab21
    He posted a .327 OBP during his first 200 games during his age 23-25 seasons. That is fairly decent especially when considering his MiLB track record and his improvement this season. It isn't like I think he is a starter but he is a solid backup and the Twins haven't had solid backups for a long time.
  11. kab21
    Not with all of the DH and 3B that the Twins have. Nor would the distraction be good for the young players development.
  12. kab21
    His .392 OBP is but the .340 career number isn't. He had a .379 MiLB OBP. He had a .330+ OBP his first two seasons in the MLB.
  13. kab21
    This is his age 26 season and he has a .340 career OBP. Right now he comps to Gene Larkin. Not a guy that should be starting but a guy that you like to have on the bench.
  14. kab21
    The Twins shouldn't be spending money on OF'ers right now unless there is a good value for a starter. I have never really liked the combination of offense and defense into WAR and don't really believe that analysis. One flaw in your analysis (before the issue of offense and defense comes up) is that discrediting his SSS offense while not crediting him for better defense (more data is needed for a relevant SS). I would be happy to have a bench bat with a .340 OBP and some power that can PH or sub in sometimes.
  15. kab21
    I think this is a longer term possibility. Palka is very unlikely to open the season on the MLB unless there are injuries that open the door (or Buxton doesn't make the team). Nor do I think it is realistic that Rosario is essentially benched on opening day. But as we have seen with Buxton and Rosario this year it is important to have capable backups like Grossman when a prospect struggles. The funny thing about this is that Grossman is only 2 years older than Palka (and Walker). He doesn't have the power of either of those players but he isn't Jason Tyner at the plate and he has a .379 MiLB OBP. If the Twins continue to field an OF with 2-3 plus fielders that can also play CF then he is a really valuable backup that finally gives the Twins a PH'ing option off the bench.
  16. kab21
    How exactly do you think the Twins can sell high this month? We are talking about a 4th OF'er here. Why cut Grossman just to bring up Palka as a 4th OF'er? I am also not sure how Vargas ended up on the chopping block vs Grossman. If Sano is at 3B then Vargas is probably at DH although perhaps you are talking about Park but he has MiLB options left.
  17. kab21
    I think this might have happened regardless of him getting hit in the face. This doesn't sound unusual when considering the difference between short season ball, low minors, high minors and the majors. Rosario's natural talent led to him being able to post good K:BB rates even if he was a free swinger in the low minors and rookie ball.
  18. kab21
    You have Rosario and Kepler as stop gaps and Granite a little further off. I think signing another stop gap isn't necessary. I think you take value where you can get it though and if there is a Dexter Fowler type of value out there then go for it. Maybe that is Carlos Gomez. He has looked terrible this year but I would be very happy with 2015 Carlos Gomez and there is potential beyond that. I think Grossman is the perfect 4th OF'er considering how this team is built. Our KosherJew/Scott mentioned the defensive importance of the 4th OF'er but when your corner OF'ers are Kepler and Rosario then that is less important since you can always shift them to CF. In addition to that I think Santana is a lock to be back. Many will hate it but he can play every position but 1B and C. That positional flexibility allows you a lot of different options at the other bench spots. And as it relates to Grossman it allows for the Twins to keep a less defensive gifted OF'er since Santana is another CF option. Next years bench backup catcher Polanco Grossman DanSan I think the Twins roll with Grossman while he is cheap but keep him as a plan B in the OF since his numbers are fluky this year (and every GM believes this). He is probably a .240/.330/.370/.700 hitter. That isn't great but it is great for a backup making 500+K. postscript - please stop playing Santana so much. His versatility makes him a great 25th man. Stop playing him 3-4+ times/wk.
  19. kab21
    Let's just put the brakes on dealing Sano. I don't care if he only DH's.
  20. kab21
    This is what I prefer although I would probably start Escobar and let Polanco get 2 starts at SS (Escobar sit) and 2 starts at 3B (Vargas and Mauer sit one) each week. I also see everyone's favorite Danny Santana returning. I would actually like this if they would play him like a 25th player on the roster instead of starting him 3-4 times/wk.
  21. kab21
    I think he just needs time like Carlos Gomez did. My preference would have been to wait before promoting him the last time but Rosario fell apart, Santana was Santana and Kepler was just called up so they needed a true CF. Now I would send him to AAA until at least next july and make sure that he is working on the issues mentioned. It is easy to place blame on him not bunting well or having flaws in his swing but it is hard to fix those things when a player has never failed and is one of the best players in his league by natural skill. I think he is still a .800+ OPS hitter with elite defense but that requires patience just like it did with Carlos Gomez. The moves of Plouffe and Buxton should be separated though. Buxton needed to be sent down regardless of Plouffe. Plouffe needed to be called up regardless of Buxton. Ideally a different move could have been made but there really isn't a logical move other than combining the moves and dealing with it (too many corner/DH's) for 3 weeks.
  22. kab21
    Are you kidding? Santiago's ERA is a full run better over his career and more than a full run better in recent seasons.
  23. kab21
    Actually the Twins do lack #5 pitchers. The rotation depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA is that bad. But Santiago has performed better than a #5 pitcher.
  24. kab21
    FIP, xFIP and other advanced stats are useful but this is a gross misuse of them. There is a very significant sample size that says Nolasco performs worse than his FIP and that Santiago performs better.
  25. kab21
    I have seen this mentioned a few times but the other way (aside from Meyer defying all odds and being awesome) that the Twins lose this trade is by giving Santiago an extension. PLEASE NO! He is a solid pitcher that prevents the Twins from going out and giving a FA big money.
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