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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    But if they say no and there aren't other acceptable options then the Twins don't add starting pitching. And that is as bad as a bad trade because this team won't truly go anywhere without adding starting pitching. The Twins are basically in the Sam Bradford situation. That trade was a necessary overpay because the Vikings had no options at QB. But they certainly overpaid in that trade. If you don't trade for it then you are going to have to outbid everyone for one of the few very good starters on the market that each have their own question marks on them.
  2. kab21
    There are 3 ways to add starting pitching for the Twins: 1) develop it - realistically only 1 (possibly 2) of Mejia, Romero, Gonsalves or Jorge become decent starters and it might take a couple of years of bouncing between AAA and MLB to accomplish it. If this is the plan then trade off everyone (and I mean everyone) and build for 2021 or later. 2) sign a FA - I have been told that the FA pitching market sucks (hopes and dreams) and the Twins won't add anyone good there. 3) trade for it - it is great to say that I would only trade a couple of our best prospects for actual elite starters but what is your plan B in case the very few options are turned down? And I am not sure if the Twins have the prospects for Archer or Stroman even if nobody is untouchable. At some point you will need to pick a path and make a risky move. The other option is to not make a significant addition to the rotation and repeat the 2017 season (and the ones before it).
  3. kab21
    Yes, I am perfectly aware that it is expensive to trade for good pitching. The elephant in the room is that this team has two better than average starters (hoping Ervin can withstand father time) and they will not go anywhere (significant) ever if they don't add pitching. And you are right, they aren't 1 pitcher away. That is why I would only target controllable starters (2.5 seasons). The absolutely most important part of the equation if the Twins want to be competitive in 2018-2020 is to first add a 3rd good pitcher because you can't add a 4th good starter until you have a 3rd one in place. So how do you propose the Twins add a 3rd good starter (and potentially a 4th) for 2018? Or do you tear it down and completely rebuild because the Twins aren't one starter away? Picking the middle route and just waiting (hoping) that Twins rebuild the rotation through prospects is going to take awhile or involve a lot of luck.
  4. kab21
    I find it frustrating when people don't want to trade any halfway decent prospect for good starting pitching. Or sign good starting pitching in FA. At some point you need to get starting pitching and it won't be cheap in prospects and/or salary. If you don't want to do either then you might as well tear down the team and completely rebuild (including Sano) because the Twins don't have the pitching prospects coming up in the next 2-3 seasons to be a playoff team. Losing Gordon would hurt but they can survive without a SS (Escobar/Dozier/Polanco with some prospects lower in the system).
  5. kab21
    Tired? Perhaps it is due to his workload. I wouldn't call the experiment failed. He has struggled lately for sure though. I think you underestimate the length of time needed to stretch out his arm after relieving for 3+ months. And I think you skip the issue of also needing RP'ers.
  6. kab21
    The point is that every year people start penciling in draft picks prematurely. The bust rate for late 1st rd picks is quite high and if that happens then it isn't really a black mark for the front office. And 2019 is probably the most optimistic timetable for all but elite level draft picks to stick in the MLB. There are of course exceptions but that is why they are exceptions. Vargas is so frustrating since I have been a big Vargas supporter. I think he can be a .800+ OPS, 25+ HR bat but he has pretty much run out of chances in MN. Especially on a team with Grossman and Mauer playing (and starting most games) the way they are. Vargas doesn't offer anything but hitting and if he isn't hitting then someone else should be up.
  7. kab21
    I think the criticism of Boshers is a little premature. I have been quite critical of the Twins recycling through 89 mph uninspiring relievers with mediocre MiLB K rates but Boshers has had strong K rates and some decent success in the minors. He is 29 and his velocity is off this year but he is more interesting than half a dozen of the guys so far.
  8. kab21
    I wouldn't call these low money signings but it seems like pitching is best acquired in a quantity of mid-tier signings. Ynoa - 800K Thorpe -500K Jorge - 330K Romero - 260K I really can't fault the Twins for their int'l signings since the Sano era of aggressiveness began. They have 4 pretty good pitching prospects listed above. It is still early but Javier, Minier and Diaz have done well enough so far. And I don't really care what position Marte plays. Optimistically he is 5 years away. A lot can happen in 5 years as far as team needs.
  9. kab21
    I don't really see the point of getting rid of Adrianza to make room for Granite. The moves that could make room for Granite A) Option Vargas - I am a big Vargas supporter and think he could be a .800 OPS 25-30 HR DH/1B but he is not doing well. Option Buxton - Yes, his defense is awesome but we are halfway into the season and he is OPS'ing .552. That is Drew Butera's career OPS. That is how bad that is. Granite definitely wouldn't be as good defensively but Kepler and Rosario are still plus defenders on the corner. He has been given 3 months and his hot month was a .701 OPS. I don't have high expectations of Granite. He looks like Revere statistically but Revere put up 4 .300BA/.700+OPS seasons. I can live with that as a 4th OF'er or until Buxton takes the role back.
  10. kab21
    I also got see one of his bullpen games in CR that year (one of my few trips home to MN). Looked it up - 5/29 Eades started and Jorge relieved. I remember wanting to see Stewart but my schedule was busy. No reason to make a 40 man move for a spot start in a doubleheader. I still think (more like hope) we see Romero in August in the bullpen. My bad - he is on the 40 man. This is a singular spot start and imo it is the perfect situation to call up a prospect that is likely still a year away. There is no pressure to pitch well enough to stay up since that isn't an expectation and he gets to be in the big league clubhouse with everyone.
  11. kab21
    That is correct now that I have done the math. I think I undercounted the senior underslot signings a little in my head. They do have a fair amount of money if they want to get 1-2 of the late round guys. That would be an extra bonus for this draft since I already like it.
  12. kab21
    Eyeballing it I think the Twins have already used most of the 5% extra and won't have anything left for post 10th rd selections. Maybe an extra 100-150K and they can snag one lower level guy. I think most of the interesting overslot picks later in the draft were protection just in case Enlow backed out of any agreement that they had. They still had somebody to sign with the extra money. The savings from Leach and Lewis roughly equal the overslot amount for Enlow (about 100K left over). rds 5-7 were all 180-300K overslot also and the savings on the rds 8-10 seniors were about 100K each.
  13. kab21
    I also think Escobar might be the most likely to be traded. Right now it is tough to find a trade match for Dozier since he is only a 2B. Polanco might possibly interest a team but he is struggling and I think the Twins don't want to sell low on him. And he is probably penciled into the IF somewhere if Escobar and Dozier aren't extended/resigned in 1.5 years. Can't trade Ervin unless they are REALLY blown away (and there have been way too many threads about that). Grossman is an intriguing piece to trade but the Twins could quickly find themselves without a 1B (mauer's contract is almost up) or DH if Vargas doesn't hit better.
  14. kab21
    Yes, the Twins have been rotating deckchairs on the Titanic with a myriad of mediocre RP'ers all season but Busenitz is not like Wilk, Wheeler, Tepesch (SP), Rucinski, Haley, Wimmers and Heston. Almost all of those guys have 90 mph FB and middling MILB K rates. It has been frustrating to see the Twins cycling through these guys that were unlikely to be anything better than a long reliever or mop up man. Busenitz OTOH has been in the 8+ K/9 range (not great) before spiking to almost 10 this year and has a mid 90's FB and a possibly some interesting offspeed pitches. This is the profile of a RP that could make a medium size impact (really good 6th/7th inning pitcher) for a team.
  15. kab21
    Rooker isn't actually a senior but a red shirted junior so he is older. I came away thinking the same thing though about drafting the 3 seniors in rds 8-10. But perhaps collectively they allow the team to land one of the higher priced lottery tickets they took in the later rounds
  16. kab21
    To much risk for the players with getting hurt imo. You would have most of the top 100 players not participating which lessens the benefit of the league. The one thing that I don't understand is why doesn't the draft take place after the final game of the CWS. I am surprised they didn't move things around when they adjusted the signing day a few years ago.
  17. kab21
    Looks like the Twins grabbed a collection of players as backup plans in case their overslot signings (Enlow primarily) in the top 10 rds don't sign. Hopefully they find a way to sign 1-2 of them though. That would really put an exclamation point on this draft imo. Assuming that the top 10 rds sign this has been pretty good imo.
  18. kab21
    Day 1 was a tad confusing but I think the Enlow/De La Torre picks fill out the draft nicely. Leach (and to a lesser extent Barnes) will remain the controversial pick but that could make sense when we see the overslot/underslot amounts for the players taken. These picks (and the later seniors) were probably necessary to sign Enlow and the other overslot choices. And there is still the possibility of another splash with 11-1. Initial grade = B+ (fairly happy with the draft) One good thing is that the Twins didn't spend most of their 2nd-5th rd picks on college RPs. Yes, Duffey has made it to the MLB and a few others could make it this year but I never really liked this strategy.
  19. kab21
    I have no problem taking all hitters in the draft. The Twins need pitchers in near future and even the college pitchers might not be as close as people think (in this org or other orgs). Wright up in September and McKay up next year? It is possible but unlikely imo. The faster path to acquiring good MLB pitchers is to have some top prospects to trade and be willing to trade them. The problem with this draft is that it seems as though the Twins could have taken many different combinations of prospects at 1/35/37 that would be more valuable than their choices. But maybe this group goes the Correa/McCullers/Ruiz route and the Twins look like geniuses in a year or two and pull off a big trade.
  20. kab21
    In general yes but the need for pitching is so dire this year and next year that downgrading to Escobar and getting back 1-2 very good AA pitching prospects is defensible imo. I can understand your stance also but this team needs pitching really bad.
  21. kab21
    Pitching is a big problem and that is why I don't trade Ervin away now (unless blown away). I don't try to make the problem even worse.
  22. kab21
    So far this is true but I am just saying that Dozier is somewhat expendable to the Twins while Ervin is at a position of dire need. Alternatively they could trade Escobar to a team needing a SS. The potential for that trade isn't as high but maybe a team offers a Nunez/Mejia type of trade for him. I think Escobar is better than Nunez but I think the Giants overpayed for Nunez so maybe that balances it out.
  23. kab21
    Prospect promotion shouldn't be determined by MLB need. I would feel confident that neither has developed enough to be ready to promote. For example, neither Gonsalves nor Romero have pitched a full season in AA yet and they aren't elite so skipping AAA would likely be a setback this year AND next year. Optimistically they are the AAA pitchers that replace whichever injured/ineffective pitchers the Twins have next year. Promoting them doesn't really speed up that timetable. The Twins will likely have to look elsewhere to fill the rotation imo. But at least there is the prospect of a pair of pretty good prospects coming up at some point next season. I would like to see one or both brought up in the bullpen at the end of the season to get an MLB taste and potentially add a useful arm down the stretch. I wish they had done this with Berrios also.
  24. kab21
    Few people want to trade Dozier but when your rotation includes Gibson and Turley and your MI depth includes Escobar and Adrianza in addition to a top prospect in AA. If I can land a good SP'ing prospect or two for Dozier then I would seriously consider the deal.
  25. kab21
    Nobody is saying to trade the farm system for a rental. The argument is that you don't take an overachieving team and trade one of its most important pieces when they are competing. That is a horrible precedent for both the fans and the players. Are you saying that the Twins will only get back an alright prospect for Santana now? Why is that worth it? Additionally nearly everyone at the time of the Mejia/Nunez trade was like 'Wow, we got that for Nunez!' Using that trade to measure what could be offered for Santana is futile. The Twins also have new management at the top. In addition to that they have the core (mostly offense and Berrios) that looks like it is getting ready to compete (and currently is). For the last 5 years they were cellar dwellers without a young core. Usually teams (most teams) don't go out and sign top FA's at that point in a rebuild. Situations have changed so I wouldn't make a statement as definitive as yours (not going to spend on top FA's).
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