kab21

I would have envisioned a 36/30/30 playing time split before the season. I think Taj is a great get and should play but Bjelica/Shabazz? Gorgui should be getting every minute that KAT or Taj doesn't play.

That was awesome. A little frustrating since they controlled the whole game (or at least the 2nd half) and still needed a buzzer beater but still awesome. Dieng and only 12 backup C minutes continues to frustrate me. I didn't like the pairing of Dieng and Towns last year but he was still the best 4 that they had and he still is the best 4 that the Wolves have.

I don't see a lot to like in his peripherals last season or any season. He has always had a high walk rate going all the way back to the minors. His home/away splits (peripherals) aren't great even though he had better results (ERA) on the road. He is younger though. That is in his favor but I would prefer to gamble with Gibson on a 1 year arb contract than sign him to 3-4 years at 8-10 M/yr. With Lynn the gamble is whether or not he fully returns to his pre TJ level. That level is higher upside than Chatwood has imo.

Once again - How other teams did it isn't really relevant unless you are playing for 3-4 years down the road? You have to assess where the Twins are right now and what is possible to be done in this offseason to improve the Twins without totally mortgaging the future. Right now the Twins have a very shaky rotation with some very good but not great pitching prospects hitting AAA. We could get lucky and find a #3/4 next season or they could initially struggle for a year or two in the MLB like many rookies do. The reasonable upside of the pitchers is 'mid-rotation' although Romero has higher upside but considerably higher risk (injury or bullpen move). If your answer in this thread is 'to develop the pitching rotation' then we might have to rebuild in a couple of years as the current team's core starts getting close to FA and the rotation continues to hold the team back. Signing/trading for a high upside but struggling arm (like Arrieta or Bauer) is great but this approach typically results in a getting a pitcher that continues to struggle and the continued blow-ups hurt the team. If it was easy to find an Arrieta then every team would have one. This should be viewed as a 'great if it works but not a significant part of then plan' option. Signing/Trading for FA's is where this team is at. They absolutely need to add 1 (and depend on Gibson again next year) or 2 arms this offseason. There are options but ALL of them have negatives. Even Darvish. He has pitched A LOT and has had TJ recently. I think his payday goes higher than the mentioned 6/152 prediction. At some point people are going to need to actually name their preferred option and not just use a general: sign Darvish or develop better pitchers or find a diamond in the rough like Arrieta. None of those options are likely to help for next season. I like potential for a Cole trade as structured in the other thread. I could live with Lynn as a fallback option and he would probably be my #3-5 pitching target this winter. Where does Chatwood fit into this? I see him as a riskier option that would be an alright second signing but I am inclined to roll the dice with Gibson (and his late season improvement) and Mejia in the #4/5 slots personally. Not excited about that but take note that there would be a bigger signing/trade in the rotation in this scenario. If Chatwood is the best addition to the Twins rotation then my entire hope for the 2018 season is going to be based on the rotation WAY OUTPERFORMING expectations. Either Gibson or Chatwood pitch according to their Aug/Sept or road splits or Gonsalves/Romero are dynamite callups to replace whoever is struggling. This better not happen.

I think one of the starters in this scenario would have to be acquired via trade with a salary <10M/yr. I can't see the Twins adding 35-50M/yr in salary for two pitchers. And as much as I want to say that Darvish should be signed, it will likely cost 30m/yr for 5-6 years to get it done. I certainly won't complain if that happens but I consider it very unlikely and the Twins should have a plan B that is essentially plan A for the offseason.

You most definitely don't go year to year with someone like Sano (or Buxton). If he realizes 75% of his potential (a very good player) then he goes FA when eligible and you are left competing with the big market teams. If you wait until he has 2 or fewer seasons left before FA then you are getting a small discount on what basically becomes a FA sized contract. The proposed contract is a steal for his potential and he doesn't even need to improve much to be worth it. Staying healthy would be needed though. I would increase the arb years a little (add 2M to each) and make this deal without thinking long about it.

Losing is disappointing but the bright side is that it looks like the Wolves are now 10 deep and won't get killed when they bring in the bench. Unfortunately, the starters got really outplayed today and Dieng got used mostly as a backup C instead of being paired with Towns part of the time. Or at least the boxscore indicates that. Here is what I was hoping for this season. - Dieng starts at PF while Taj subs in for either big with roles being swapped based on current lineup - Wiggins and Butler both start but their minutes are staggered such that one of them is always in the game. - Crawford gets most of the backup wing minutes - Bjelica and Shabazz fill in where matchups dictate

Your frustrated that I keep pressing you on alternatives but I am frustrated in every single pitching target being picked apart and called not good enough or too expensive for the Twins. This happens in every single thread. I completely understand that Lynn didn't have a great season peripherally. It was also his first season back from TJ. And it is why he will be available at a relative discount. I would love it if the Twins outbid the league for Darvish or managed to convince Otani this was the place to be. Those seem unlikely but I will certainly put them above Lynn. The problem is that I don't think the Twins have the pieces to go big in a trade and soon that doesn't leave a lot of other options. There needs to be more of a plan than 'get Darvish'.

So the Twins have one option? And I thought age 31 was one of your arguments? This doesn't mean that I am against Darvish but he might cost 2x Lynn.

I could back Zach Lowe's crazy prediction of Jerad Dudley for Aldrich and a 2nd rd pick. This is the type of player the Wolves need instead of Shabazz (still a great bargain that you sign regardless). He just shoots 3's.

I think you might need to start naming names since spending big would be done on a 31 yr old starter or a 28 yr old that has recently gone the rest and rehab (and arthroscopic surgery) from a strained UCL. And a couple of options might not opt out and enter FA. I am not sure if any potential target meets your criteria. As far as trades go, the board didn't like Sonny Gray this season and getting something better than Gray will require multiple of the Twins best prospects since they don't have a top 10 overall type. I find that it is easy to pick apart starting pitcher targets when names are put out there but very hard to put a name out there that satisfies the criteria that everyone has. There will be a negative to every option.

I meant his career averages and not single season which is prone to the sample size issues that you point out. I would love to get someone even better than Lynn but are you really going to spend megabucks on Arrieta, Darvish or Tanaka? Cueto?

You also posted in one of the first comments about your Lynn doubts. And again there are many reasons why a pitcher returning from TJ might fade in the second half. One big part of your analysis that you left out is that Lynn has been much better than FIP/xFIP throughout his career. The opposite has been true of the pitcher you just compared him to though. But the biggest point is that every single option the Twins have to add to their rotation this winter can be thoroughly picked apart like this. There is no doubt that the Twins need to add somebody (good) though.

You do realize that pitchers don't immediately return to their pre-TJ form? Before TJ he would have expected to sign for 20-25M/yr. But it is clear that the Twins need to sign somebody this offseason. I keep seeing Gibson and Mejia in rotations. They are reasonable option as the 4th and 5th starters with some good prospects coming up but the Twins desperately need someone better in front of them. And the options are limited. Lynn might present the best combination of reasonable cost and some level of upside

I can dig that. Just stop with this all yellow or all white from head to toe nonsense.

I think the important part here is to remember that Gibson is one of the best five SP'ers for the Twins this year. And I think everyone expects him to struggle at time. I am just thankful that he has managed to put up some good numbers (and get wins) against the bad teams.

It is nice to see that they can actually play football this year but are they going to wear horrifically ugly jerseys every week?

I am not sure if there is a pitcher in baseball that won't look good if you start omitting enough results using some arbitrary split. Gibson's nice little run that he is having is why I disagreed those with pitchforks that were ready to cut him despite no viable replacement being on the MLB or AAA roster. There is some level of competence and he is showing that he can be successful against awful offenses but I don't really believe in any significant change from his previous 700+ innings of mediocrity.

It is also right in line with most of his starts in April and May.

His increase in whiff rate is result based and still very much SSS. Even the swstr% is SSS. He started the season with 3 out of 4 games with similar rates. He had 4 straight games >10% in late May/early June. His velocity has held steady between 91 and 92.1 during all 5 of his MLB seasons. I wouldn't put much hope in that improvement. And if you aren't basing this on results then is it just hoping?

I am sorry but this article is way over optimistic about Gibson due to his success against two thoroughly mediocre teams. Also included in his 'great' month is a 3.90 ERA and 2 games where he didn't make it through the 5th inning. I need to see a little (I mean A LOT) more before he is even an option for next year. That bridge has been burned for me to be honest. The Twins need starting rotation arms of any kind to finish the season and somehow stay in the playoff hunt but they should be completely prepared to find better options than a starter finishing his 4th full season with a very high 4's ERA that is trending higher. Taking a split from the all star break is just a little too convenient for me. He just happened to throw one of his worst games of the season immediately before the AS break.

Dozier with his 9th HR in his streaky August (1.122 OPS and going higher after the DH). He is definitely the best MI player on this team and shouldn't have ever been considered an option to bench in favor of either Polanco (also smoking hot right now) or Escobar (still very good).

I hope that you never used FIP against Santiago. With the amount of data (almost 300 IP) that Kintzler has I believe that he very likely will pitch better than his FIP (about 0.50 difference). I tend to not trust low K pitchers but he has been an effective pitcher so far and I don't think someone should expect him to turn into a lemon.

Belisle has only given up 6H, 2BB and 0 R (or ER) in 1.5 months (15 IP). Hildenberger with a 2.70 ERA and a (near) 10 K rate and 1.35 BB rate is a lot more than serviceable or what was expected. Good to see though. I think we should expect both of these pitchers to regress. But the point remains - the Twins pen is better because the Twins finally found a few other pitchers to step forward. They didn't have to subtract Kintzler to make that happen since plenty of mediocre-ness has existed all season (for example Breslow).

This was all possible with Kintzler on the team. The key here is that Gee has pitched very well and Belisle has been lights out for two months (who saw that coming?). When more RP'ers are pitching well then the bullpen does better regardless of what roles they are in. Unfortunately the RP'ers aren't actually better but are riding hot streaks. Hopefully this expected regression doesn't occur anytime soon though.