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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I think you let this play out for another month or two (i.e. closer to the trade deadline). - there could be an injury (C or MI) - Escobar or Dozier are a prime trade chip for a MLB for MLB type trade (for a SP) if the right situation aligns. Don't be in a hurry to get rid of a good utility IF (Adrianza) - Gimenez's 45 PA (vs Castro's 100+) are not exactly killing the team - Garver shouldn't be relegated to a non-catching role (3rd catcher/PH/DH) this early in the season
  2. kab21
    The Twins are pretenders unless Berrios emulates Liriano (minus the injury) and two of the hard throwing RP prospects solidify the bullpen. Maybe (a reach for me at this point) they can compete for the wild card with the expanded playoffs but a rotation of Ervin - Hector - ? followed up by a bullpen of ????'s isn't going to advance any significant distance in the mostly crapshoot of the playoffs.
  3. kab21
    What is a Plan C if one of Mejia, Berrios or Tepesch fail or any of the starters get injured? Until Hughes implodes he will have a spot in the rotation because there aren't other alternatives available. Mejia is pretty much the only (halfway talented) option the Twins have unless the Twins have Jorge or Romero skip AAA (with only 2-3 months in AA). This is what I am wondering. Does he get stronger as the season progresses? Possible
  4. kab21
    No, it wouldn't be easy but it looks like 2-3 more years for the internal improvement to happen. I am waiting for an non-conventional move from this FO that really kicks TD into debate overdrive.
  5. kab21
    This is the big point here. The Twins need to start showing some urgency because getting competitive 3-4 years from now is just about when Sano is getting ready to leave.
  6. kab21
    WAR is meaningless in the sense (for Sano) because it isn't a predictive stat. Sano putting up a 3.3 WAR in his first 216 games is not the reason that this thread was started. This thread was started because many are convinced that Sano is a future star and want to make sure he can't immediately leave in FA. That is what makes Piscotty and Yelich (fine players) non-comparables and Harper a comparable. People aren't talking about Harper breaking FA records because he has one season over 5 WAR in his career. They are betting that he will be in the 6-10 WAR range for most of the next decade. Piscotty and Yelich might break 6 WAR once or twice in their careers. I could see your middle (100M) offer being considered except that there would be no buyouts. 100M fully guaranteed. The other issue is that his agent could say no to buying out any FA years (like Boras typically does) or offering one year and then go to FA.
  7. kab21
    Harper (and actually Stanton is closer or MCab) are far closer comparables to Sano than Piscotty and Yelich. WAR is meaningless in this comparison. Sano has a chance to be an elite power hitter and he knows this. Piscotty and Yelich are nice players and closer to Polanco or Kepler as mentioned.
  8. kab21
    Like Giancarlo Stanton or Michael Trout? Sano has a chance to be Stanton and he signed for 325M (with opt out) and bought out FA years for 25M/yr. You can't expect Sano to sign a year or two earlier than Stanton did for 35M guaranteed when there is a chance that a 200-300+M extension could happen in a year or two. Either the Twins back up one truck right now or they back up 2-3 trucks in two years if they want to keep him. And he might not be open to signing an extension at any price.
  9. kab21
    The phone call isn't even getting answered if there isn't 100M guaranteed and the last arb year and FA years aren't being bought out for 20-25M/yr. Yelich and Piscotty are your comparables? Yelich signed his deal after a 9HR, .764 OPS and 4.4 WAR season. Piscotty signed his deal after a 22HR, .800 OPS and 2.8 WAR season. A closer comparable to Sano is Bryce Harper (prior to 2015) who has basically said 'no, thanks' to any deals. Whether or not he is actually that good doesn't matter but he is more in that realm of player when money starts getting talked about.
  10. kab21
    It is quite interesting how quickly things change. During the offseason some/many didn't see the need any additional #3 upside starters in the high minors and now the Twins have literally nobody behind Berrios (or Mejia) to call up. During the offseason there was a sentiment that since Ervin was older and not likely to be part of winning teams that he should be dealt regardless what the return was. The same was said of Santiago, Hughes and Gibson to some extent since we needed to get prospects into rotation to see what they had. May is injured, Duffey might be staying in the pen, Gonsalves is injured and Jay moved to the pen. Nearly zero depth. Now the Twins have no depth at SP and retaining Santana and Santiago look like great moves. Gibson and Hughes are rather indifferent moves but somebody needs to pitch and the Twins don't have many options. For the record I would trade Santana (and would have this offseason) for a top 50 prospect and a top 200-ish (or two) flyers. With a strong preference towards starters obviously. Otherwise definitely hang onto Santana but the end will come harshly. So far he has gotten better with age but 35+ pitchers don't have a great track record.
  11. kab21
    They only see him once/game and his fastball is 1.7 mph faster this year and might be an okay pitch now. It is quite common for starters with limited pitches and mediocre fastballs to become very good in the bullpen. For example Glen Perkins.
  12. kab21
    Of course the current ERA (and other stats) aren't sustainable but I have reached the point where I am happy if the pitching is merely a little below average vs historically bad like previous seasons. The question should be whether or not a little below average is sustainable. Santana and Santiago have long enough track records that they can be considered solid to good pitchers. Hughes and Gibson (and especially Gibson) haven't shown much so far this year and that is the big concern going forward. Mejia is a wild card with modest upside this year. The reasonable best case is that he is a solid pitcher but there is considerable downside for this season. Berrios is the Twins one big potential change but he hasn't shown the ability to translate that to the MLB yet. The outlook changes considerably if he takes that step this year. But with Gonsalves's injury and Jay's switch to relief the upper minors is depleted of pitching and most likely we see the next version of Albers, Pino, Jason Miller, etc... if an injury occurs or a trade happens. Or multiple pitchers get demoted/cut due to ineffectiveness. Imo the upside this year is an average rotation and the downside is something looking like last year if there is just a bad break or two.
  13. kab21
    But the money was spent on Santiago (+/- 1M). The Twins might have plenty of money to spend but that has nothing to do with Nolasco other than they are getting something useful out of Santiago.
  14. kab21
    He was nowhere near a top 100 list and was outside of Sickels' top 20 (but a sleeper alert). #20 at Twinkie Town and #16 on this site. That is pretty much out of nowhere for prospects during a season. The amount of information distributed to hitters was exponentially better the following season after he had 10 great starts and was getting talked about.
  15. kab21
    Not really. The new sheriff decides how the money is spent. Pohlad decides how much is spent each year. And how exactly did this start? About the 1M difference between what the Nolasco is being paid (including the part the Twins pay) and what Santiago is being paid?
  16. kab21
    But the point that should be made about this is that Duffey was a solid MiLB'er that came almost out of nowhere and teams didn't have great scouting reports like Brock says. They came back in 2016 with that information and Duffey couldn't adjust. It doesn't really matter if he has two different curveballs and even a changeup if hitters don't respect his fastball. I don't think it is set in stone that he can't succeed as a starter but all signs point to his pitch repertoire being much better suited to the bullpen. If what people say is true (smarter than I about pitching) then I don't see much reason to stretch him out and risk not getting anything out of him. At this point in his career I want to get something out of him instead of him being cut due to another lackluster year.
  17. kab21
    You did say .800+ and the .750-.770 number was only for BAPIP drop. I said I expect him around .750. In addition his SLG is still higher than expected. And he is getting rested a lot vs RHP. And don't discount what a 50 points of OPS is. It is the difference between a very good to great player and a good one.
  18. kab21
    So your optimism depends on him ranking around the 10th percentile of all (qualified) batters in BAPIP? Good luck with that. I will take it also. In fact it is what I projected BEFORE the season began when some people wanted to cut him.
  19. kab21
    .370 BAPIP Let's consider him an above average BAPIP hitter and he can maintain a .320-.330 BAPIP. The reduction in BAPIP will knock 60-80 points (or thereabouts) off of his OPS along. Now we are talking about .750-.775 hitter. I can see .750-ish out of him. But .800+? Not really. And multiple projection solidly put him around .730.
  20. kab21
    600 PA's is still just one full season and players have lucky seasons all the time. Santana had 430 great PA's his rookie year. Rosario had 480 pretty good PA's his rookie year. But maybe 600 PA's is the magic number.
  21. kab21
    But Robbie-freakin-Grossman OTOH
  22. kab21
    I would normally agree but I believe the many people that his pitches don't project well as a starter. If this is true (certainly debatable) then just leave him in the bullpen. I do like the idea of having higher leverage multiple inning pitchers available though instead of this one (inning) and done concept. No reason that Duffey couldn't be a 7th/8th (and even 9th) inning guy but it would challenge bullpen usage as we know it.
  23. kab21
    Of course a 1.47 ERA is a mirage just like the 5.58 ERA last season with the Twins was a mirage. I think nearly everyone in this thread expects him to revert back to the average 4.00 (career ERA is a little lower) that he has always been and your stats do nothing to refute that. I think we should all have the expectation that every GM knows that Santiago will go back to being Santiago. There is no find a trade partner fast because he has had 3 great starts. The issue that I see the Twins facing is somehow clinging to a .500 record and not selling Santana or Santiago. Of course as a fan of MN sports I expect an 6 game losing streak at some point breaking our hearts. But winning would be great even if we weren't able to pawn off a couple of veterans for mediocre prospects.
  24. kab21
    There is a good chance I still have my BYTO shirt in a box at home. I wasn't real happy with the complete closure of BYTO but we were a shrinking forum that was becoming less inviting to any potential new posters that wandered by. Congrats to Nick and Brock that ignored all of the criticism and to all of the others they partnered with like Seth and John and countless others.
  25. kab21
    Because of 200 PA's in 3 different seasons?
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