Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

kab21

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,876

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Even Cubans and Asians are subject to the new international signing limits. Almedys Diaz was being investigated for lying about his age in order to be OLDER. If he was over 23 (or whatever the limit is) then he wouldn't subject to the spending caps.
  2. kab21
    Maybe it's Mayo's part then because I always find undated rankings and analysis. The biggest thing for me is that the 2nd half of the Twins team top 20 has always had guys like Angel Morales that hadn't been prospect relevant for a couple of seasons but it's like Mayo didn't have anyone else to put on the list. Their draft profiles are always great. Additionally what makes BA really good is the stuff other than the rankings. Ask BA, scheduled team chat every year that are easy to find, and stuff like this. BA of course only has most of the good stuff available to subscribers.
  3. kab21
    Callis and Mayo had to show somewhat controversial disagreement since it has generated complaints. One (Callis) chose Sano and the other (Mayo) chose Franco.
  4. kab21
    I think everyone needs to make less out of this Franco vs Sano issue. The players were chosen by best performance (not best prospect) out of legit MiLB prospects. Sano is absolutely the best prospect but Franco's season was also great. And most likely Mayo and Callis decided that making a controversial choice would cause more people to read their articles. It's too bad Callis left BA because MLB.com has always had terrible prospect info organization.
  5. kab21
    And I have already said that you use him as a trade chip if there is a deal you are working and he is essential to landing the starting pitcher that you want. But there isn't any reason to trade Rosario for the best starting pitcher (prospect or big leaguer) that you can get. There's no pressure to make the move now.
  6. kab21
    I really don't see how this is an issue until next offseason. I see Rosario going back to AA for a half season and spending some time at AAA unless the Twins desperately need a 2Bman next year. He's much more likely to be a September callup than to be a May/June callup.
  7. kab21
    There is more to home runs than distance. New Yankee Stadium supposedly has the same measurements as Old Yankee Stadium and they were completely surprised that it's a home run paradise for lefties. It would have been a good hitters lefties hitter park but not this ridiculous. Target Field on the other hand has a steady breeze blowing in from right most nights knocking balls down. Hughes might do quite well in MN.
  8. kab21
    This would be a terrible strategy for an opposing GM. If he has a WS contender then he would be far better off going after a better, younger MLB player than Willingham with a really good prospect like Rosario. If he wanted a willingham type then he can easily get him for a Harrison type prospect (or less) and keep his top prospect. The reality is that there are very, very few trades that happen like you are proposing. And there are very few prospect for prospect trades.
  9. kab21
    That's not mix and match. that's a one for one deal. I don't even understand why the Dodgers did it. You are proposing an aging frequently injured slugger and two marginal prospects for a decent arm. Teams just aren't interested when you start adding in a bunch of players that don't really fit into your plans. The running joke 3-4 years ago was that basically any trade deal would look better and teams would be more likely to accept if they included Duensing, Casilla and/or Perkins (when he sucked). That's not how trades work. And right now Willingham has basically zero trade value this offseason. If you want to acquire a good starting pitching prospect (and the Twins need several more) then you are going to have to put players with real value on the table. Putting players like santana, Harrison and Willingham on the table will get you back similar prospects. the pitchers the Twins need will cost a Rosario, Arcia or Perkins. Tough choices for sure.
  10. kab21
    It's clearly a better idea to not improve the rotation according to you. I would actually be more interested in trading Rosario (if we really think a grand total of 2 young players at a position is depth) for a solid MLB arm with 3+ yrs of control. Hellickson had a down year but he's the kind of arm I would like to add.
  11. kab21
    You can't just mix and match average prospects and old vets to get the prospect that you want. Quality> quantity. This is called the Duensing rule dating back to BYTO days. If you want a potential stud then you have to give up a solid return. And even if the Twins could they need more than just one more pitching prospect.
  12. kab21
    Uggla was 30ish, couldn't field his position and had something like 50M remaining on his contract. It shouldn't be surprising that he was traded for relatively little. The no-brainer is to worry about this when both of them force the Twins into that position. The other no-brainer is to at least try Dozier at SS since he does have the tools to play the position. Florimon is a fairly terrible hitter and Santana doesn't look much better. This is kind of painful to read. You do realize that the average 2Bman is not even close the MLB average hitter? If Dozier is for real he's an above average hitter at 2B and a good glove that is making peanuts. This is extremely valuable if he is for real and even if he isn't the second coming of Alomar (a HOF caliber player).
  13. kab21
    I don't think you put either on the block but instead call all teams that have the type of starting pitcher that you want (2-4 years of control) and relatively good. At some point you can mention that one of these guys is available if that is what it takes to land the pitcher. The team needs starters but I don't think the strategy should be to enter the offseason trying to trade one of these guys. Just let it be known that any offensive players not named Mauer, Sano and Buxton are available for the right pitcher (minors or majors).
  14. kab21
    A) Ryu is further proof of the stupid money that teams are throwing around (especially the Dodgers). I think Ryu was expected to be a 30M or so guy for the posting fee and FA contract. He got double that. That's the most I would bid but I also don't think that is going to win the bid.
  15. kab21
    You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter. If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).
  16. kab21
    There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.
  17. kab21
    I thought you were a goner also but his team kind of collapsed the 2nd week after an amazing 1st week. You were strong both weeks. Maybe next year for me... If Super Hanley is back for good that isn't a bad trade. We will see if any of my superstar prospect trades come back to haunt me. I'm not sure if I care enough about the scoring to have an opinion or even care. I have one proposal for completely overhauling the MLB cuts and draft. Basically the best teams (the playoff teams) have to make more players eligible for the draft and they have to include prospects. I have some good MLB role players that are going to get cut (or traded) this year but David Dejesus and Marco Scutaro won't help a rebuilding team. The worst teams would get more picks because that's the whole reason for doing this in the first place. At some point I will type it up (maybe - life is crazy right now).
  18. kab21
    Big difference between Dozier's stuggles and Arcia's. Dozier has the tools but struggled with fundamentals at SS. Arcia is 22 and simply doesn't move well already. He can improve his routes but the raw athleticism won't.
  19. kab21
    I think it would be easier to create scenarios where Joe Mauer doesn't make the hall. If his career completely ended right now he would likely get the Puckett treatment since he was an elite player while in the majors. If he is good but not great at 1B for another 6-8 seasons he will go in based on elite accomplishments and decent counting stats. The scenario where he might not go in is if he doesn't continue to hit well or play catcher but still plays. 4-6 seasons of .265/.350/.375 could bring down his averages without padding the counting stats enough. I don't think it's possible for Mauer to hit .265 though.
  20. kab21
    Right now I am not concerned about having too many GOOD players at the corners and catcher. A lot of ?'s if you ask me. I think Pinto makes Doumit completely expendable this offseason but that is slightly dependent on whether or not the team plans to have Joe catch 50-80 games next year. But Doumit just doesn't fit into the roster as I see it. Nothing against him but he's not good enough at catching to catch and he's not a good enough hitter to DH regularly. Willingham does fit in next season since he's a legit middle of the order bat even if he does block someone (probably nobody good) for half a season.
  21. kab21
    The value/WAR is set for the year once those contracts are signed. This is from a few years ago but they don't use a constantly changing set of stats to calculate value. It's either based on previous WAR's as stated here or possibly on their set of projections if they changed it. Dempster, Hamilton, and Upton tanking have no weighting on Correia's WAR value at fangraphs. Yet I'm not sure how Correia can rationally be considered an overpay at this point by anyone. If you don't want to use fangraphs WAR valuations to determine Correia's value then let's use my ballpark valuations since FIP isn't a perfect valuation method. I have posted this in another discussion stating that I think 180+ innings of the following are worth: 4.50 ERA - 5M/yr 4.00 ERA - 10+M/y 3.50 ERA - 15-20M/yr <3.00 ERA - 20-infinity/yr Right now Correia is solidly worth well more than 5M/yr and it's not because he is having a lucky season. The problem with Correia is that he was the best pitcher the Twins added last offseason but I think most expected Worley to be better. there is absolutely no way at this point that anyone can consider it a bad signing unless they expected him to perform like pitchers getting 50+M contracts in free agency.
  22. kab21
    I am all about Lincecum. His velocity is down but all of the important numbers (if you dig deeper) are where they need to be. Even walks (2.5 K:BB ratio). He's the type of pitcher that has a chance to pull a Liriano (regardless of his success it was time to part with him). At the end of the day (like last year) I'm all for spending 3yrs and 35-40 on the best pitcher the Twins can buy. I'm against the Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle level contracts. 4+ yr contracts for guys that are unlikely to have a sub 4 ERA (Buehrle could come close) over the life of the contract. No thanks. this is not how fangraphs values players. Fangraph valuations (like Correia's 5.6M) is calculated based on his WAR which is calculated using FIP. Each win (WAR) is worth about 4.5M. correia was an unimpressive signing but at the end of the day he is performing as well as a majority of the pitchers signed for <60M (basically everyone except Anibal and Zack). I think most of the board has basically put TR in a no win situation. He's too cheap if he picks a pitcher that does well but wasn't great in the first place and nobody would have given him a pass if his 30-50M signing flopped (even if you say that you would).
  23. kab21
    I don't think we can say for certain that Hicks will hit enough to be a corner OF'er regardless of how great his defense is. Arcia is a poor defender but I'm fairly certain that he can hit well enough to be a DH or corner OF'er. I hope Arcia is a lesson to anyone that ever says 'he played CF in rk ball so he must be a good defender'.
  24. kab21
    Moving OF to 1B is pretty rare if that player has basically never played IF so I don't think this is a likely solution. Arcia's role is likely RF/LF/DH just like Kubel. The absolute most that I expect Mauer to play at catcher is 50% of the time so it makes more sense for him to be at 1B in the other half of the games. Rosario to the OF is silly unless the team really doesn't think Dozier can handle SS. Citing someone's first 80 MLB games where he struggled at pretty much everything is not a good analysis. And after a decade+ of inept MI play I will be concerned about having too many good 2Bman when Dozier is still hitting next year and Rosario is tearing up AAA. There are a few warning signs that Dozier 'could' tumble next year. I think he's here to stay but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
  25. kab21
    This team typically carries two utility IF'ers so there is still plenty of room for a platoon especially if one part of that platoon can be the 4th MI'er as well as 3B/1B/LF/RF. It also wouldn't be difficult to pair Mastro with someone in a platoon since he is already on the roster in a role. Bench Escobar - futility IF Mastro - futility OF Plouffe/Parmelee - platoon OF backup C
×
×
  • Create New...