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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos

    Machado

    Thrylos replied to cmoss84's topic in Other Baseball

    Word in the street is that the owner, 88 year old, Peter Angelos, has stepped back a bit since this off-season and his sons, Louis and John are actually running the team since then. Expect changes.
  2. Thrylos
    A couple of caveats regarding this: - the data is good starting 1974, so lots of players including Oliva, Killebrew etc are excluded. - This is like WAR, so it is cumulative measurement, so people who played more seasons have higher. Also, it is a situational measurement, so it is relative to other players. So a Clutch/season might be a more interesting measurement. To that point. Mauer is ranked 9th with a 2.55 clutch measurement. Arguably, the number 10th ranked Twins player, Delmon Young wiht a 2.52 measurement, but in about half of Mauer's seasons is twice as "Clutch" as Mauer, per that measurement So not sure how it can help with granular quantifying comparisons of outcomes between players. Of course, as far as perennial negative "Clutch" hitters like Hunter, Cuddyer, and Dozier go, it can be very informative... It is more of a trend measurement (overall positive or overall negative) vs. quantifying...
  3. Thrylos
    This is an interesting "what if" question, but the write up does nor really answer it, but goes into tangents, instead of examining that hypothetical situation. If Prior instead of Mauer, likely no Santana and definitely no Liriano or Nathan, because they needed a catcher. So what happened in the 2010s, would had happened a decade earlier and would had resulted in changes in the Twins' FO and management, that would had resulted to a dynasty starting at about 2009 or so that would had given them a new ballpark with a roof without a second thought, and probably a few rings. Bad move drafting Mauer, because it perpetuated the mentality of "good enough"
  4. Thrylos
    Kinda hate seeing math-based arguments that are kinda almost calculated all the way but stopped in the middle. Based on the above, you can calculate the numbers for someone who has played 64% of the time as C and 36% of the time as 1B (and I kinda doubt that this is accurate, since he DHed a tad too.) So the numbers for a HOF guy who played at those 2 positions with Mauer's percentages are: 58 career WAR, 37.3 WAR Peak 47.6 JAWS Mauer's 54.5 career WAR, 39 WAR Peak, 46.7 JAWS. FWIW. But the discussion on whether Mauer deserves to be in the HOF or not, is too premature, since he is still playing. Cannot make math-based arguments with incomplete data. Give it a few years.
  5. Thrylos
    Got to have an open mind...
  6. Thrylos
    You know, this had the bones for a really good, compassionate article, other than it's beginning: Sorry, but unless you give the proper respect to Puerto Rico and treat it as part of the United States, as it is, whatever else cannot sound anything but forced and patronizing... It ain't another country. It is a US Territory.
  7. Thrylos
    FWIW the Twins can clear a 40-man spot by moving E. Santana to the 60 day DL retroactively, so the Vargas playing at home hypothesis still can be in play. Not sure why they would need yet another pitcher when they will not be playing due to weather and travel for a while...
  8. Thrylos
    Even Napoleon had his Watergate
  9. Thrylos
    You'd rather see the Twins re-sign Mauer than win a World Series? If so, you are Mauer fan and not a Twins' fan.
  10. Thrylos
    Facts: In 2017, among 28 qualified first basemen, Mauer ranked: 16th in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, 20th in OPS, and 5th in batting average In other words, in metrics that reflect overall performance, he was in the lowest third in the league. Yes. Having a first baseman who is in the bottom third of the third basement, hurts a team that wants to compete in the post-season.
  11. Thrylos
    This should not be about Mauer, it should be about the Twins. If they feel that there is not a ready replacement out there, they should try to sign him for a one year contract, if he performs this season (and 11 games a season do not make 2K hits or not). Fans prefer wins and world championships to the ghosts of their heroes past.
  12. Thrylos
    Is this post for real or just trolling? (*) Sano's numbers this season: .985 OPS, 158 OPS+, .399 wOBA, 156 wRC+ Worry? Wish every Twins' hitter hit like Sano. (*) Unless Sano is a typo for LoMo
  13. Thrylos
    Kinda stuck with not firing the manager who got the MoY award, though...
  14. Thrylos
    This is an interesting point that shows the difference in parity between the two leagues: A 6-4 record (.600 winning ratio) or 97 win baseball team is a very highly performing team and has the chops to contend deep into the post-season. Only 4 mlb teams had that record last season A 4-6 record (.400 winning ratio) or 65 win (or 97 loss) baseball team is horrible team that will pick on the top 5 next draft A .600 football team with a 10-6 record could lead the division and likely make the post season but it is nothing special, since 13 NFL teams had that record last season. An NFL team with a 6-10 record is not the worst team since 11 NFL teams had that record or worst last season... So the difference between .200 winning points is much bigger in the MLB than in the NFL
  15. Thrylos
    I'd say that 7/7 runs inherited scored is statistically significant even with sample size = 7. As is calling something that might be over one's head "nerdy", instead of making an effort to understand what it might mean. As far as trends go, you only need 3 data points to have one...
  16. Thrylos
    gmLI is really a measure on management trust and not pitching performance. It is all about Molitor's belief on his pitchers. A couple days ago, I used Situational Run Expectancy (RE24) which measures how close to the average pitcher in a particular situation (bases loaded or empty, 8 runs up etc) a particular pitcher performs and Fangraphs "Clutch" which measures how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment, to analyse the Twins' pen. They are both WPA-based measurements. Results and conclusion here. These 2 measurement offer an interesting insight. I did not check them after yesterday's game, but I think that the conclusion is pretty close...
  17. Thrylos
    Eight games Give it eighty and then we can start formulating hypotheses. Sub "Buxton" (who has not been that much better with the stick) for "Morrison" on your title, and 3/4 of the Twins Territory will cry in protest Regarding this: You can quantify that. His BABIP is 0.100 today and his average BABIP 0.271 (and last season .268; BABIP has nothing to do with HRs). Assuming that he will continue to be the hitter he was, adding that .171 to his BA and OBP, he's got .245 BA and .338 OBP. I could live with that. And, again, if he starts hitting HRs in his regular clip, those will also increase and BABIP does not reflect this Game temperature is a huge thing and it has been pretty nasty. And that really effects hitting. Give it till June, before start thinking about his performance
  18. Thrylos
    Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...
  19. Thrylos
    Worrying? Why? There are two pitchers in the organization, one available now (Fernando Romero) and one available later (Trevor May) who are likely better than Santana, with a third (Michael Pineda) who will be ready to come during the final sprint of the season. Wasted money this season and he should had been traded when he had some value after last season that was an aberration. Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins anyways, with Lance Lynn's addition...
  20. Thrylos
    Mauer is close to reaching a milestone... Dozier is not close to any milestones as far as HRs go. Pushing it juuuuuuuuuust a tad on that respect... On the other hand, Dozier is 157 hits away from 1000. That, along with Mauer's 2000, might had made a better story.
  21. Thrylos
    I really would not mind if Duke is relegated to mop-up duty and Hildenberger goes to Rochester when Hughes returns. Neither has been pretty effective this season. Couple more games left with Seattle. Hope that they Twins got giving up runs out of their system.
  22. Thrylos
    8 hits and 3 ER against high A hitters in warm Florida translates to not surviving the first inning in the majors in cold Minnesota against the defending World Champions. Not.That.Good. The Twins need a plan B, quickly, otherwise they might as well forfeit that game.
  23. Thrylos
    Agreed; however Mejia and Slegers have already auctioned. May did too, and fared better than the other two, but he is a new pitcher now. #FreeFernandoRomero
  24. Thrylos
    No way he gets to that date. He will need: a. to get throwing b. to get throwing in game velocity c. to get stretched to 75-100 pitches which will be the equivalent of 5 starts with 5 days rest in between. So just to get stretched, it will take 30 days before his official start. And he cannot start that unless a and b happen. So we are looking at a minimum of 45 days from when he gets the clearance to throw. Were that 2-3 weeks ago, as they hoped, the May 1st situation was correct. Now we are looking at late May. May may actually be ready before Santana. He is throwing and in the processes of throwing in game velocity.
  25. Thrylos
    Sounds like the earlier reports of him playing light catch were false. Still not cleared to throw and about to seek another opinion...
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