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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    This is one of the things that drives me crazy regarding Ryan as a General Manager: He knows and admits that Santana's 2014 was an aberration. He also admits that it is not sustainable. So: put 1+1 together: Santana was at the peak of this value and that peak was not sustainable. And trade him. Sell High. Re: Santana's BABIP. This season in AAA (.365) , 2014 in AAA (.377) and 2013 in AA (.353) has been in the ballpark. It is not like a jump for .300 to .400. You look at his 2015 AAA season and .322/.348/.500 is a nice slash. As you say (same with Buxton btw) making contact for hits is the culprit here. He needs to get the singles. That's the only difference between 2014 and 2015 for him in the majors...
  2. Thrylos
    Hard to tell about this one. He had a .413 BABIP in AAA with the Twins and his MLB average BABIP is around .350; so luck was probably about 40-50 points with him, which would give him a .280/.325 average OBP and I don't think that his doubles number was exaggerated (19 vs 13 previous season of .308 BABIP with Twins; remember HRs are not BIP) That gives you a .280/.325/.520 or so slash normalized for his average BABIP. Not Too Shabby.
  3. Thrylos
    Based on most defensive metrics, DRS and UZR (which are cumulative so players with less than a full season's experience are compared to those with full season's experience), there was a single Twins' player on top 3 of their positions: This is Eddie Rosario at L, second to Cespedes in both. Only one who deserved it. But he is a rookie with less than a season experience, so managers and coaches... Eye test? Up to the beholder.
  4. Thrylos
    I really would not use the aforementioned company as an argument of ranking Jay in the top 5 of the Twins' prospects list; it detracts from the argument, because it exposes Big Ten as not quite the baseball powerhouse That said, I agree, he is the second best Twins' pitching prospect other than Berrios, if you count players with no major league experience (that's where I draw the line.) If you do, Meyer is still better than both of them. Hard time seeing Buxton in this list with 92 days of MLB service... More than half on the DL and riding pine, but that is more than half of an MLB-season...
  5. Thrylos
    The Rays and the Royals (the last 2 seasons) have proven that the "small market" talk was just an excuse for inability/ineptitude/caringlessness (pick your poison.)
  6. Thrylos
    Cannot tell "Under" or "Over" if you do not give a baseline Where do I see Walker? Somewhere in the: Steve Balboni, Pete Incaviglia, Rob Deer, Jay Buhner spectrum. And it depends on taking some balls. I don't think that he can be a higher average hitter because he will always pull the ball. Whether he will be a .229/.293/.451 hitter (Balboni) or a .254/.359/.494 hitter (Buhner) or in-between, has yet to be determined, because he is still developing, but pretty much this is his range...
  7. Thrylos
    Ryan has proven "sustained competitiveness"? 17 years as a GM, the Twins made the post-season 4 times (3 of which went out in the first series), 10 seasons were 4th or 5th in their league and 3 seasons were 2nd or 3rd. 4 seasons of competitiveness is not sustained. It was a peak and then dropped off. Could be like Toronto, could not. Also, that peak was very likely because of the weakness of the division, unlike Toronto. What Ryan sustained (10/17 seasons) it is not anything anyone would like sustained, unless they are not Twins' fans.
  8. Thrylos
    That's an urban legend. Here are a couple of quotes on his defense (from here. this season) Molitor: "I think a lot of people have bought into the fact that what he's done in terms of improving both footwork and arm strength, and believe he has a chance to stick at that spot. I don't think that's unanimous, but I think it's a greater percentage than it used to be. Mientkiewitz: "This is just his second full season at shortstop and we've had some speed bumps," "He's made a lot of careless mental errors, but they don't really have anything to do with him not being able to play the position. He's making the more athletic plays and starting to get a feel for what it means to be a shortstop." Bit different than "struggling". If someone, like Blyleven, is looking at Errors and FP, sure he has several of those... but he is not struggling according to people who have seen him play every day. Not long ago, BA rated his as the best defensive infielder in the organization FWIW...
  9. Thrylos
    Last time I checked, he did.
  10. Thrylos
    2 numbers about Meyer's 2015 that are missing in the list: .378 BABIP and 3.28 FIP < 3.66 FIP of 2014. K% dropped a tick (27% to 24%) but BB% was the same (13.1% vs 13.5%) Consider me not concerned. Amused by the fact hat some people give Buxton a Mulligan for 2015 because of "potential" while the root of his problems is inability to hit a breaking ball (which is a defect) but not doing so for Meyer whose bad 2015 driver was a high BABIP (which is not a defect.) Highest potential than any pitcher in the organization (haven't seen Jay pitch), I hope he gains a rotation spot with the Twins this Spring.
  11. Thrylos
    http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-phew-.png
  12. Thrylos
    I did not insult anyone's kids, unless they take themselves to the ballgame... To me, parents who are bringing their kids to a baseball game, while the kids are not interested in watching the game or do not care about the game, plus demanding the ballpark to be a babysitter, while ignoring the needs of the people around them who want to watch the game in peace, are at fault. If your kid cannot watch the game, get a babysitter or take them to a place that will amuse them instead of a ballgame. You will be doing everyone a favor. You do not expect kid-friendly stuff within a movie theater while watching a movie, why should you expect that in a ballpark? That's the point here. It is a ballgame, not playdate.
  13. Thrylos
    I'd trade them Pinto 1-1. About fair value there. if they didn't want it, I'd add Navaretto or Turner. Nothing more (unless they want Nolasco, Fien, or Milone ). LuCroy is about as much of a gamble as Pinto is, he is just a bit better fielder.
  14. Thrylos
    So you want an amusement park? Ball parks are for baseball. The game is very child friendly. If you don't want to bring a kid to the ballpark to watch the game, there are better things you can do with your kid. And if your kid is not enough to concentrate to the game, there are more nice things to do that bring a kid who will disturb everyone around you all to the game. Bars make $. Free amusement parks do not. Of course the Twins are in it for the $, otherwise the Metrodome was a fine venue to watch baseball and a great home field advantage when the fans went there to watch baseball. Now that people go there for the "experience", instead of the ballgame, things have changed and people start demanding teams to have even more irrelevant to baseball stuff, in addition to mascots, costume races etc. Really glad that the Twins are not making the ballpark Club Snoopy or Chucky Cheese's... Gee.
  15. Thrylos
    Those have to be cutters not changeups.
  16. Thrylos
    So far so good. However: The point of the experiment was to get a bunch of 95-100 mph relievers to turn into starters and hope they sustain those velocities: Duffey's average fastball velocity in 2015? 90.2 mph. Faster only than Milone's as far as Twins' starters went...
  17. Thrylos
    That happened in 3 drafts: 2012, 2014 and (Maybe) 2015 the crazy part was wanting to convert them into starters. Last time I checked, still hasn't worked out...
  18. Thrylos
    That's indeed a good thing But. If his change is at 89 and his FB bottoms at 94, he needs to work on his change. That has to sit at -10 mph from FB or below to be effective in the majors.
  19. Thrylos
    To me the most interesting name in that list is Pineda. His ERA and W-L was mediocre, and really did not produce in NY. Wonder if someone like Dozier might be interesting to them as a bait enough to center a trade around those 2...
  20. Thrylos
    This kinda blows my mind To explain: The criteria to have someone as a prospect in my list are: a. not to have played in the majors and b. the season e.g. 2016 to be at most his age 26 season. As far as the Twins go, they are 185 players (91 position players and 94 pitchers from the DSL to AAA) that satisfy that criteria. This excludes the ones who retired, traded or were cut (about a dozen or so) There are a handful more who have not yet played with the organization but are eligible. So 150 is pretty much everyone in the organization but 10-15 people..
  21. Thrylos
    Top 10% SP is a very tall order. Here is the math: 30 teams, lets say 7 SP each = 210 SP in the majors. Top 10% means up to number 21. Here are the SPs ranked by xFIP in the majors in 2015 (100 IP + so you take care of the 6th and 7th pitchers of each team. And need a rate measurement like xFIP and not a cumulative one like WAR.) Greinke, Price and Harvey are ranked 19th-21st, so they round up that 10%. (Highest ranked Twins' pitcher was Gibson at 66 FWIW.) SIERA is probably a bit better measurement and the results you get are pretty similar. Where it gets interesting is that even with the 100 IP, the total list is 133 pitchers, which is much less that 6 or 7 by each team. (so the cuttoff for top 10% is 13... Tough list.) To get a bit more realistic sample size, you have to drop all the way to 50 IP where you get 186 SP and the top 10% is 19. Still very tough list that top 10% (but the Mets have 3, which tells you a lot for the reasons they are there.) (highest Twins in that latest exercise are Tyler Duffey at 53 and Trevor May at 57. More like top 30% Gibson Drops at 93 (50th percentile) and Hughes and Santana are in the 65th-75th percentile.
  22. Thrylos
    Top 100? Wow. That sure takes a lot of work (and does not leave many minor leaguers out )
  23. Thrylos
    Definitely not the not-good-enough-is-success guy... Sure. But you got to make it to the post-season and to the World Series to have a chance to win it, no? It applies to all of them. Ask the Pirates' fans or the Cardinals' fans about how they feel? Ask them how they would have felt had they not made the post season. Not black and white. Even in Hell Inferno there are gradations http://jballi.qwriting.qc.cuny.edu/files/2011/11/Dantes-Inferno.jpg
  24. Thrylos
    Neal Cotts: 5.99 FIP, 1.390 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.80 K/BB (replacement level or below - yes I am calling that one nothing) Kevin Jepsen: 2.56 FIP, 0.893 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 3.57 K/BB (thumbs up) JA Happ (SP) : 2.19 FIP, 1.026 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 5.31 K/BB (rather have that or Milone? or Pelfrey?) Joakim Soria: 1.93 FIP, 1.163 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.50 K/BB (better than Jepsen) Joe Blanton: 2.11 FIP, 1.019 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 4.33 K/BB (better than Jepsen) And no need to compare to Jepsen. Compare to Perkins, and Tonkin and Fien and Cotts and O'Rourke and whomever the Twins were trotting (other than Jepsen and May) in their pen after the deadline. One above average arm and a replacement level arm does not cut it (and apparently it did not.)
  25. Thrylos
    ok. The Angels did not make the post-season. And I said significant to major. Aramis Ramirez, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Joakim Soria (Pirates) are nothing? I'd take them all to the Twins at the deadline. The Cubs got Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter. Pretty significant. I'd take both to the Twins at the deadline...
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