Karbo

In past articles, I previewed many of the top trade deadline targets. However, it is frustratingly obvious that ownership won’t allow much (if any) additional salary. As the TV situation remains an issue, it doesn’t look like much will change next year either. This leaves cheap rentals as the only option for the Twins at the deadline, and even that is far from guaranteed. That said, I will list my top 3 targets (that are left) that the Twins could realistically pursue. Then, I will outline some pieces on selling teams that could be interesting, low-risk, and low-cost. 
 
Jack Flaherty I previewed the case to trade for Flaherty two and a half weeks ago, and he’s only gotten better. The 28-year-old righty is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. Through 18 starts, Flaherty has a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 106.2 innings pitched. His advanced metrics match these numbers, as his whiff rate (33.2%) is in the 94th percentile, and his breaking run value (8) is in the 95th percentile. His xwOBA (.272) and chase rate (31.2%) are by far the best marks of his career. Flaherty is only owed around $4.7 million for the rest of the season, and then he’s set to reach free agency. Unfortunately, the Twins will likely have to unload payroll or overpay with prospect capital to get Flaherty, but he remains the best obtainable starter for the Twins on the market.
 
Andrew Chafin Tanner Scott is the best leftie reliever available at the deadline, but the Twins likely won’t offer a good enough package to compete with teams like the Orioles, Dodgers, and Yankees. Andrew Chafin is a solid backup option, though. Chafin is enjoying a good season, playing for his fifth team across ten MLB seasons. He’s 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA across 37 innings pitched. He has 50 strikeouts in those 37 innings, but he’s also walked 16 batters. Chafin doesn’t have the velocity he used to, but he still has elite underlying metrics. He’s in the 93rd percentile for xERA (2.76), 96th percentile for chase rate (35.4%), and 95th percentile for whiff rate (34.4%). He has the highest strikeout rate of his career (30.9%) and the lowest xwOBA of his career (.264). Chafin is owed a little under $1.6 million for the rest of 2024, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins spending that much on a reliever. They don’t have a reliable leftie in their bullpen, and they don’t necessarily need one, but it’s a hole on their roster that they should fill if they genuinely have championship aspirations. 
 
Luis Garcia In his second stint as an Angel, Luis Garcia is quietly enjoying a nice bounceback season. The 37-year-old reliever is 5-1 with a 3.71 ERA across 43.2 innings pitched. Garcia throws hard, averaging 96.3 mph on his fastball, and this season, he has the highest chase rate of his career (31.2%). His 22% strikeout rate is about league average, but he generates ground balls at a 51% clip (86th percentile). Garcia’s stuff has diminished at this stage in his career, but he’s still very effective at generating weak contact. He’s only owed around $1.4 million for the rest of 2024, making him a good option to compete with Jorge Alcala, Brock Stewart, and Cole Sands in middle relief/set-up man duties. 
 
Other Angels:
After sitting out the entirety of the 2023 MLB season, Hunter Strickland is back, and he’s been surprisingly effective. Across 49 innings, his ERA is 3.12, with his xERA being even slightly lower (2.98). Strickland has regained success this year through his ability to induce weak contact, with his 5.8% barrel percentage (80th percentile) and his .216 xBA (81st percentile). Strickland is owed just over $800k for the remainder of this season, and he would be a cheap depth piece if the Twins feel they need one.  
Although Manuel Margot has played 23 more games, Kevin Pillar has outproduced him in almost every way. Despite having 36 fewer plate appearances, Pillar has the same amount of hits, more home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and doubles than Margot. 
Margot was brought in to play defense and hit lefties. His defense has been bad, as his -4 outs above average ranks in the 11th percentile, while his 80 mph average arm strength ranks in the 23rd percentile. Pillar hasn’t played the defense he’s known for, but his -1 outs above average is better (30th percentile), while his arm is still strong (87 mph average arm strength). Margot has been decent against lefties, with a slash line of .290/.348/.420 and an OPS+ of 115. On the other hand, Pillar has killed left-handers. He has a slash line of .375/.416/.625 with an OPS+ of 188. As a bonus, Pillar offers speed off the bench with his average sprint speed of 28.6 mph (84th percentile). Margot is 7% better than the league average with his 27.6 mph average sprint speed. Pillar signed a one-year $1 million contract going into 2024, making him a cheaper, better option than Margot down the stretch. The Twins could dump Margot’s salary and attach a prospect to entice the Angels ahead of this year’s deadline. 
 
Washington Nationals:
Old friend Dylan Floro is having his best year since the 2021 season. He has a 2.06 ERA through 52.1 innings with the struggling Nationals. Floro gets ground balls 47.7% of the time (72nd percentile) and has an unreal barrel percentage of just 2% (99th percentile). His fastball and breaking ball grade well, with run values of 7 (83rd percentile) and 3 (70th percentile), respectively. He’s not very exciting and doesn’t fill a big hole on the Twins, but he’s adequate bullpen depth, which is always needed during playoff pushes. 
 
Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds have a pair of veteran lefties on cheap expiring contracts: Brent Suter and Justin Wilson. Suter has a 3.68 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 51.1 innings pitched. He’s been used mainly as a reliever, but he’s also started three games. Tyler Rogers is the only pitcher in MLB with a lower average fastball speed, yet Suter has still gotten the job done. His 86.4 average exit velocity is in the 92nd percentile, while his 31.1% hard-hit rate is in the 94th percentile. His fastball is deceiving, as his 7.3-foot extension is tied for ninth in baseball. He also doesn’t walk anyone, with his 4.7% walk rate falling in the 93rd percentile. Suter is owed around $900k for the rest of the season, with a team option at $3.5 million that the Twins would almost surely decline. 
Justin Wilson’s stats don’t look good at first. He has a 4.50 ERA and has given up 31 hits across 28 innings this season. However, many of his advanced stats are elite, albeit in a small sample. Wilson is holding batters to an xBA of .192 while averaging 86 mph exit velocity. His chase rate is 34.1%, yet he only walks 5% of batters faced while striking out 26.1%. It’s hard to analyze Wilson due to his low amount of batters faced, but he’s only owed around $500k for the remainder of the season, and if he performs well, his upside is a playoff-caliber leftie, which the Twins do not have. 
Although not lefties, the Twins could look toward Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims if they want more bullpen depth. Neither have been too impressive, but they’ve been staples in the Reds bullpen this season. Sims broke out last year, owning a 3.10 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched. This year, he’s enjoyed a similar production. He has a 3.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 24.1 innings pitched. Sims gets a lot of weak contact, as his average exit velocity is 86.5 (92nd percentile), and his hard-hit rate is 34.1% (80th percentile). He consistently generates swings-and-misses, as his chase rate (30.3%) and whiff rate (27.7%) are in the 69th percentile. He’s owed just under $1 million for the rest of the season, but the front office may feel like there are better places to allocate that money. 
The Twins are very familiar with Buck Farmer, as they saw him in Detroit for seven seasons. Now in his third year with the Reds, he’s having arguably his best season to date. He has a 2.68 ERA with just four homers allowed across 47 innings pitched. However, many signs point to regression. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 40:19, while his FIP is 4.09. His xERA is 4.18, and he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff. His fastball has a run value of five (75th percentile), while his breaking ball has a run value of four (84th percentile), but walks have ultimately derailed his production. He’s only owed around $750k for the rest of the 2024 season, but he may not be worth the prospect and salary in the Twins Bullpen. 
 
Per Aaron Gleeman, only two teams have yet to make a trade at this year’s deadline: the Oakland A’s and the Minnesota Twins. Despite self-imposed financial constraints from ownership, the front office must find ways to bring reinforcements, even if they’re marginal improvements. Although the return of Justin Topa and a potential switch to the bullpen from Louie Varland and Chris Paddack may help, they shouldn’t be relied on. Minor league starters such as David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shown immense promise, but no one knows what to expect from them if given a more extended look in the rotation. Jack Flaherty seems like a pipe dream, but players like Andrew Chafin, Luis Garcia, Kevin Pillar, and others offer upgrades and depth in critical areas. These are cost-effective players, which is non-negotiable at this deadline. Ultimately, the Twins’ potential to improve their roster will depend on finding extreme value in this seller’s market, which seems increasingly unlikely as the hours pass. 
 

Very soon, you will be able to update your Top 20 Minnesota Twins prospect rankings again (so watch for that!). In thinking about it over the past week or two, I actually ended up ranking my top 203 Twins prospects. Again, I include only players who remain a "prospect." It's the same criteria used the MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and any other credible prospect ranking site. 
This won't be a real deep dive into these prospects. In fact, I will attempt to keep the Top 10 prospect summaries to 3-4 sentences. The goal will be to keep the reports on prospects 11-20 to 2-3 sentences. For prospects 21-30, I'll limit myself to just 1-2 sentences. My hope is that you will use this as the starting ground and ask me a ton of questions. Ask questions on these 30 players, or ask about other players that don't appear on the list. (My hope is that I didn't miss anyone, but that is possible too.) Update - I didn't keep anywhere near my goals of keeping it short!
What do I consider in my rankings? In my opinion, the biggest factor is upside and ceiling. Just how good can this player be? But also, what is the players' floor? How likely is that player to get to the big leagues. Have they been hurt? For pitchers, I consider their velocity, stuff, reports on spin, etc. For position players, I consider athleticism, speed, defense, arm, ability to hit and the potential to turn doubles into home runs down the line. What level is the player at? How old is the player relative to level of competition? Was the player drafted out of high school or college (because that will effect age-to-level)? What types of decisions are being made regarding the player in terms of promotions, timing, place in batting order, how the teams take care of the players, etc.? And then ultimately it comes down to comparing a player versus another player and which I would have higher. 
Let's get started! When you get to the end, let's discuss the rankings, the players, who was snubbed, who's too high or too low? 
#1: Walker Jenkins - 19 - OF
It was just over a year ago that the Twins used the #5 overall pick in the 2023 draft. When he has been on the field, he has hit very well. Hurt in the Mussels first game of the season, he is hitting .265/.402/.398 (.800) with five doubles, a triple, and two homers in 27 games. Most impressive has been his patience. He has 23 walks to just 15 strikeouts. The sky is the limit. Jenkins has all five tools. 
#2: Brooks Lee - 23 - IF 
After impressing throughout spring training, Lee missed the first two months of the season with a back injury. He was brought back slowly with five rehab games in the FCL and five more in Fort Myers. He played 20 games for St. Paul and hit .329/.394/.635 (1.029) with five doubles and seven homers. He got off to a fast start, with eight hits in his first four big-league games. Since then, he has three hits over his past six games. A solid contact hitter, line drives from gap-to-gap, with potential for more power, Lee can also play solid defense across three infield positions. 
#3: Emmanuel Rodriguez - 21 - OF
In the offseason, E-Rod was added to the Twins 40-man roster. In 37 games at Double-A, he has hit .298/.479/.621 (1.100) with 12 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. He has 42 walks in 166 plate appearances. His on-base skills are incredible for his age. His power is legit. He has great speed and does a very nice job in center field. You may have noticed... Twins prospects get hurt, and Rodriguez has not been able to avoid that. He has missed time two or three times due to a hand/wrist injury that keeps coming back. When he can play, he's as talented as anyone. 
#4: Luke Keaschall - 21 - 2B 
One of the biggest risers among Twins prospects this season, Keaschall represented the Twins in the Futures Game recently. He began the season with 44 games in Cedar Rapids where he hit .335/.457/.644 (1.001). In 42 games at Wichita since, he is hitting .315/.415/.457 (.872). Combined, he has 21 doubles, a triple, and 11 home runs. He has 53 walks already. he is also 20-for-25 in stolen base attempts. After seeing him hit early in the season, I compared his approach, set up and swing to that of Mike Trout. He's big, strong, and he's got a ton of potential. 
#5: Andrew Morris - 22 - RHP  
The next guy on the list is getting all the headlines, but Morris is putting up very similar numbers. Sure, a few more walks, but some impressive overall numbers. He was the Twins fourth-round pick in 2022 from Texas Tech. He began the 2024 season in Cedar Rapids. In seven starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA. He moved up to Wichita. He has pitched nine times and has gone 5-2 with a 1.19 ERA. In 83 combined innings, he has 87 strikeouts and just 16 walks. He's got the numbers, but he also has the stuff. He's got a mid-90s fastball. He also has a really good slider and a slower, 12-6 curveball. 
#6: Zebby Matthews - 24 - RHP
Matthews was the Twins eighth round pick in 2022 from Western Carolina. Like Morris, Matthews started in Cedar Rapids. After four starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He moved up to Wichita and has pitched in 10 Double-A games. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA. In a combined 78 innings, he had 91 strikeouts and just six walks. Morris fills the strike zone. Matthews just picks the spot within the zone and throws it there. And it's worked because he now has the stuff to get whiffs in the strike zone. His mid-90s fastball also touches 98 mph now. He's also really, really worked to improve his secondary pitches. He has four strong pitches. 
#7: Austin Martin - 25 - UT 
After struggling in his transition to professional baseball and fighting some injuries the last couple of seasons, Martin has shown exactly what type of player he can be in the big leagues. He may not hit a huge number of home runs, but he hits a lot of line drives from foul line to foul line. He can run well, and run the bases well. And, defensively, he is at least adequate at second base, left, and center field. He will soon lose prospect eligibility, but the on-base machine has shown that he can be a productive big leaguer. 
#8: Charlee Soto - 18 - RHP 
A year ago, the Twins made him the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Reborn Christian Academy in Florida. He made his pro debut in 2024. A look at his overall numbers is fair, but not necessarily indicative of what he's done. In 15 starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.73 ERA. In 48 2/3 innings, he has struck out 60 and walked 22 batters. Soto is all about projection. First, he is huge; tall and very strong. He throws hard, touching 98 and 99 at times. He's also working on his secondary pitches, but each of them have shown some potential. Despite the lack of numbers, he's worked and improved and his most recent start was the best of the season.  
#9: Kaelen Culpepper - 21 - SS/3B
The Twins selected "KC" with the 21st overall pick this month in the 2024 MLB draft. The Memphis native was not recruited heavily out of high school, but he went to Kansas State and got the opportunity to play right away. In 2023, he hit .325/.423/.576 (.999) with eight doubles and 10 homers. He had the opportunity to play for Team USA last summer, playing for Larry Lee. This season, he played 61 games and hit .328/.419/.574 (.993) with 15 doubles, six triples, and 11 home runs. Culpepper is a contact, line-drive hitter who puts the ball in play and makes things happen. He played third base his first two years before moving to shortstop this season. I personally think that Culpepper is a great example of a prospect with a high floor but also has the tools to become a high-ceiling performer too. 
#10: Yasser Mercedes - 19 - OF 
A top international signing in 2022, he put up a great stat line in the DSL that summer. Last year, he moved up to the FCL, but a shoulder injury cost him performance before finally being shut down. Now healthy again, Mercedes is back. In 49 games, he has hit .337/.426/.577 (1.003) with 17 doubles, two triples, and six homers. He also has 18 stolen bases already. Mercedes can hit for average and doubles, but he'll get bigger and stronger and could add significant power. He's got really good speed, and he has the ability to play strong defense in center field. 
#11: David Festa - 24 - RHP 
A bit of a drop for Festa since the most recent prospect rankings, but honestly, for me at least, it's a lot more about the players that made big jumps in the season's first half. Sure, he had a couple of rough starts in the big leagues. He went 1-1 with an ERA over 10. I don't care about that at all. He gave up too many homers, but what did I see? I saw a fastball between 95 and 99. I saw a slider that was sharp and got some swing-and-misses. He also had some really good changeups. He's got three potentially big-league pitches. He just needs to get to St. Paul and keep working on the consistency and command of each of his pitches in and outside the zone. The stuff is definitely good enough. 
#12: Gabriel Gonzalez - 20 - OF
Did we place Gonzalez too high before the season started? Maybe. But what did we know? All we saw were his numbers, stats, and other information available online. Now he has been in the organization for a little over half of a season. Unfortunately, He missed nearly two months with a back injury which cost him valuable development time. Should he have been a Top 100 prospect as some in the industry had him? Maybe. He struggled a bit early in the season with his new organization and then got hurt. Overall, he is hitting .267/.303/.437 (.740) with 10 doubles, two triples and three home runs. So yes, he drops for now, but he is very young for the level. He is incredibly strong with a quick bat. He likes to swing. He's got things to work on, as does everyone on this list, but he's got a ton of talent and power potential.
#13: Marco Raya 21 - RHP 
It's just really hard right now to rank Raya. His "stuff" is as good as anyone's in the system, and I don't have a big problem with how he's been used. The other day when he threw 78 pitches in a game and it was the most he's thrown since 2022, it definitely gives pause. He has fought injury early in his career. He is not a big guy. He needs to continue gaining strength. I have no problem if his "future big league" roll is seen more as a 3-4 inning reliever where he just throws his big fastball and sharp breaking pitches and changeup at max effort. That can be an immensely valuable pitcher. But how do we rank that type of pitcher? Not as high as a full-time starter, but ahead of relievers. The stuff is good. The numbers haven't matched this year. 
#14: Rayne Doncon - 20 - IF 
Doncon came to the Twins this offseason with Manuel Margot from the Dodgers in exchange for SS Noah Miller. Doncon was a big international signing in 2021. He hit in the DSL, and then in the ACL. However, in 2023 at Low A, he hit just .215/.283/.368 (.651), and while those numbers aren't great, he hit 21 doubles and 14 homers. He began this season with 38 games and hit .283/.374/.464 (.838). He moved up to Cedar Rapids and in 43 games, he has hit .253/.333/.446 (.779). Combined, he already has 21 doubles and 10 home runs. Doncon is a really great athlete, very strong and quick. He's got a solid approach at the plate and does a decent job defensively around the infield. 
#15: Brandon Winokur - 19 - IF/OF
Winokur was the Twins third-round pick just a year ago out of high school in California. Winokur just might be the most athletic player in the Twins system. He stands 6-6 and is lean. Right now, he's able to play shortstop and third base as well as center field and right field. He's got a ton of power potential on his frame. Right now, he's got really good speed as well. In 56 games this season, he has hit .252/.347/.393 (.740) with 13 doubles and five homers. He has 23 walks, but he's also struck out a lot. He also have 14 stolen bases. 2024 is about getting him games and at-bats and time at each of the defensive positions. He'll have an offseason to work on things, so I believe 2025 will be a bigger year for him. 
#16: Dasan Hill - 18 - LHP 
Hill was the Twins fourth pick in last week's draft, a competitive balance pick following the second round. The lanky lefty had committed to Dallas Baptist. At 6-4 and 175 has plenty of room to add some weight and mature. He's already throwing 95 mph at times. He also has the makings of really good slider in the low-80s and high-70s slower curveball. He also has a changeup. He's all about upside. 
#17: Kala’i Rosario  - 22 - OF
Rosario was the Twins' fifth and final pick from the 2020 draft. The Hawaiian-born slugger was the High-A Midwest League's home run and RBI champ and the league's MVP. He went to the Arizona Fall League and tied for the league lead in home runs. Rosario only recently turned 22, so he is very young for the Double-A level. In 52 games, he hit .241/.342/.417 (.759) with 15 doubles and six homers. Unfortunately, his season came to an end due to injury. 
#18: Cory Lewis - 23 - RHP
Lewis was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2022 out of UC-Santa Barbara. He made his professional debut in 2023. He made nine starts in Fort Myers and 13 starts in Cedar Rapids. He went a combined 9-4 with a 2.49 ERA. In 101 1/3 innings, he had 118 strikeouts and 33 walks. He was named the Twins minor-league pitcher of the year and the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. Unfortunately, he missed the first two months of this season with injury. He is now back and with the Wichita Wind Surge where he has made five starts. 
#19: Ricardo Olivar - 22 - C 
The Twins signed Olivar in July of 2019 which meant that his professional career really didn't get underway until the 2021 season. He had a breakout season in the FCL in 2022. In 40 games, he hit .349 (1.046) with 12 doubles, three triples and five homers. He validated that season by hitting .285 (.855) with 28 doubles and 10 homers in Fort Myers. He has played in 75 games for Cedar Rapids .He is hitting .294/.403/.489 (.892) with 15 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. He's a good athlete for a catcher and can play some left field. He's got a strong arm. He takes very good plate appearances and is willing to walk. He also has the talent to be a solid all-around hitter. 
#20: Danny De Andrade - 20 - SS 
De Andrade was a top international signing for the Twins in January of 2021 from Venezuela. He has generally held his own offensively while playing very strong defense at shortstop. In 2023 in Fort Myers, he hit .244/.354/.396 (.750) with 21 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He was also 20-for-24 in stolen base attempts. In 29 games with Cedar Rapids this year, he hit .243/.333/.359 (.693) with six doubles, two homers and five steals. Unfortunately, his season came to an end after a high-ankle injury. 
#21: Kyle DeBarge - 21 - SS 
Barely recruited out of high school, the Louisiana native stayed in-state and played for the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana-Lafayette. He played in 60 games that first season and hit .293 (.750), a solid freshman season. In 2023, he hit .371 (.994) with 15 doubles and seven home runs. He spent last summer in the Cape Cod League. This spring, DeBarge was the Sun Belt Conference player of the year after hitting .356/.418/.699 (1.117) with 19 doubles, three triples and 21 homers. At the same time, few question his ability to stay at shortstop defensively. He's just 5-9, but it's fair to call him a "ballplayer." 
#22: Jose Rodriguez - 19 - OF
Rodriguez is a big, strong youngster with a ton of power potential. He's shown it at various times. As a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2022, he hit .290 (.966) with 15 homers, three triples, and 13 home runs. In 2023, he came to the FCL and really had to adjust but by season's end, he had. He hit .262 (.737) with 10 doubles and six homers. This year, he played 33 games with the Mussels and hit just .186 (.569) and struck out about 33.3% of the time. But few in the organization have as much power potential as Rodriguez. Unfortunately, his season came to an early end as well which is costing him valuable development opportunities. 
#23: Jair Camargo - 25 - C 
Camargo signed with the Dodgers out of Colombia in January of 2015. In February of 2020, he was traded with Kenta Maeda to the Twins. It's been a slow progression through the Twins system ever since. Last year in St. Paul, he hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 homers. This year, he's been injured a couple of times and was called up for a little while. The burly backstop is a good athlete, and he's quite strong. He has improved his plate discipline and contact rate the past couple of years. 
#24: Yunior Severino - 24 - IF 
It's been an interesting career for Severino, going back to signing with the Braves, being deemed a free agent, and signing with the Twins to a second seven-digit signing bonus. He could always hit, and he's made himself playable at the corners. In 2023, he played 84 games for Wichita and 36 games at St. Paul. Combined, he hit .272/.352/.546 (.898) with 17 doubles and a minor-league-leading 35 home runs. His 2024 started out very slowly. That makes his .253/.362/.451 (.813) stat line look better. He's got nine doubles and 16 home runs. Tons of swing and miss, but a lot of pop in his bat too. 
#25: Dameury Pena - 18 - 2B 
A right-handed Luis Arraez? Probably not fair, but Pena is a really good hitter as a very young player. Signed in January 2023, he hit .382/.453/.496 (.949) with eight doubles and three triples. This year, as an 18-year-old in the FCL, he has hit .294/.400/.431 (.831) with four doubles, a triple, and three home runs in 33 games. Over the two years, he has 32 walks to go with just 18 strikeouts. Hard contact, uses the whole field, lots of singles and doubles. Pena is a very intriguing prospect. 
#26: Rubel Cespedes - 23 - 3B/1B 
Cespedes has been in the organization for a long time, but I would bet most people really didn't know his name before this season. He signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic back in April of 2019. He made his pro debut in the DSL that summer. In 2021, he hit just .158 in the FCL. However, in 2022, he was doing well in Extended Spring and got an opportunity with Fort Myers. He stuck, hitting over 74 games. He remained with the Mussels in 2023. In 115 games, he hit .233/.313/.398 (.711) with 26 doubles and 13 homers. He played some winter ball this offseason which he said really helped him prepare for this year. In 71 games with the Kernels, he is hitting .289/.361/.459 (.820) with 12 doubles and 10 home runs. Cespedes has really cut his K-Rate. He's got a fairly smooth but strong left-handed swing that can generate a lot of power around the field. Defensively, he's solid at both corner infield spots and possesses a tremendously strong arm. 
#27: C.J. Culpepper - 22 - RHP
Culpepper was the Twins 13th round pick in 2022 out of Cal-Baptist. He split 2023 between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. In 21 starts, he went 6-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He had 89 strikeouts per inning. This offseason, he found himself featured in national publication's Top 10 Twins prospect rankings? He isn't a flame-thrower, though he sits 92-94. What makes him so intriguing is that he has six pitches, and he's been encouraged to continue working with all of them. This season, he's been limited to just seven starts. He's been fine, posting a 3.26 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. However, he has been on the IL when forearm/elbow issues. 
#28: Billy Amick - 21 - 3B 
A South Carolina native, Amick stayed in-state out of high school and went to Clemson. His first season, he had just 19 plate appearances over nine games (and had 11 strikeouts). However, as a sophomore, he played in 46 games and hit .413/.464/.773 (1.236) with 17 doubles and 13 home runs. After spending time in The Cape, he took advantage of the transfer portal and went to Tennessee and the SEC. In 65 games, he hit .306/.387/.639 (1.026) with 14 doubles and 23 home runs. He helped lead the Volunteers to the College World Series championship. The Twins used their second-round pick on the slugger, and he could move swiftly once he gets acclimated. 
#29: Spencer Bengard - 22 - RHP
This is the Cal-Baptist section of my prospect rankings. Bengard was the Twins 15th round pick in 2023 from the same school as CJ Culpepper. (No, I couldn't quite fit FCL right-hander and 2023 Undrafted Free Agent signing into this range.) Bengard, to some degree has become this year's Day 3 Find. He began the season working out of the Fort Myers bullpen. He's made six starts and six relief appearances, but even coming out of the bullpen he works 3-5 innings at a time. He is 6-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 55 1/3 innings, he has 57 strikeouts to just 10 walks. Bengard throws a low-90s fastball (90-91, touch 94), a low-to-mid-80s changeup, a mid-80s slider, and some upper-70s curveballs. 
#30: Eduardo Beltre - 17 - IF 
At the 30th spot, it's always fun to consider the youngest players in the organization. In January, the Twins signed Beltre out of the Dominican Republic with a bonus just shy of $1.5 million. Only Daiber De Los Santos received a larger bonus this year ($1.9M). His DSL season got going a little bit late due to a wrist injury, but once he got in the lineup, he's been unreal. In 22 games, he is hitting .339/.500/.554 (1.054) with two doubles and four homers. He's also got 18 walks to go with just 14 strikeouts, something I sure like to see. He's got huge power potential, but he is also a very good athlete. He likely has the speed to stay in center, but he's been getting a lot of time in right field too. 
The Next 20 (in alphabetical order)
Adrian Bohorquez - RHP 
Darren Bowen - RHP
Matt Canterino - RHP 
Noah Cardenas - C 
Byron Chourio - OF 
Miguel Cordero - RHP 
Khadim Diaw - C
Daiber De Los Santos - SS 
Jaime Ferrer - OF
Tanner Hall - RHP 
Ronny Henriquez - RH RP 
Kyle Jones - RHP 
DaShawn Keirsey - OF
Cesar Lares - LHP 
Jeferson Morales - OF 
Jaylen Nowlin - LHP 
Pierson Ohl - RHP 
Connor Prielipp - LHP 
Tanner Schobel - IF
Patrick Winkel - C
 

Welcome to part three of this series, in which we look at the all-decade teams comprised of only guys selected to an All-Star team in that decade. You can refer to part 1 for the full methodology. Without further ado, let’s dig into the 1980s. Can they overthrow the 1960s all-decade team?
The 1980s Twins Teams
Oh, the 80s. We saw the introductions of franchise greats like Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, and others. In 1988, the Twins set a league record for making the fewest errors in a season. They also won the World Series in ’87. Aside from those few bright spots, it was not the Twins’ finest decade. We saw the opening of the Metrodome, in all it’s astroturf and bathroom trough glory. 1984 saw the Pohlads attempt to take advantage of an attendance clause in their lease that said if they didn’t draw enough fans, they could vacate the lease and move the team. Sound like the plot of Major League? Yeah, I thought so too. The decade also featured several pretty bad seasons.
How did the all-decade team stack up? To this point, the 1960s all-decade team is pacing every other decade’s team. Can the few 80s superstars get it done? Let’s dig in.

Starting Pitchers
SP1 - Frank Viola - 1988. He was the ace. Fresh off his epic 1987 World Series run, Sweet Music went 24-7 en route to his only All-Star selection as a member of the Twins. He had a 2.64 ERA and a 154 ERA+, a 1.1 WHIP, and a minuscule 1.8 BB/9. He won the Cy Young for his efforts. In the midst of a four-year peak, he won more games as a lefty than anyone else in baseball, and the third most overall behind Doc Gooden and Jack Morris. Over that stretch, he won 19 straight home games. Not too shabby. He had a contract dispute and was traded midway through the season in a blockbuster with the Mets that brought three players, includingRick Aguilera and Kevin Tapani, who would go on to be members of the '91 World Series team.
Unfortunately, after Viola, there were no other SP selected for an All-Star nod. The ace stands alone.
Relief Pitchers
CL - Jeff Reardon - 1988. The ‘80s did bring a bullpen ace into the mix as The Terminator found his way into 63 games, pitching to a 2.47 ERA. He was 65% better than league average, and received down-ballot MVP votes as a reliever. He had an 80-54 SO/BB ratio. That year, he was featured on the cover of Street & Smith’s annual Baseball Yearbook. A few years later, he would eventually become the all-time saves leader, although he didn’t remain on top for long. In 1988, he was also the first pitcher to record 40-save seasons in both leagues.
Lineup
Here we saw a number of mainstays that were also on the ’91 WS team.
C - Tim Laudner - 1988. This was his only All-Star nod, and even in this season, he was just sort of mediocre. Despite only accumulating 3.2 career WAR and just 1.1 in his All-Star year, he’s the only catcher selected to an AS team that decade. He was a league-average hitter, but performed poorly when it mattered, finishing the season with a -1.2 WPA. There was nothing notable about this season, or about him as a player. Sorry Tim. He was fine on broadcasts and did go to my High School, so there’s that.
1B - Kent Hrbek - 1982 in his lone selection. Notably, he told MLB not to pick him moving forward. However, in 1982, along with finishing 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting, he was an All-Star. As a 22-year-old, he hit 28% better than league average, hitting .301 on the year. He also swiped three bags.
3B - Gary Gaetti, “The Rat” - 1988. A member of the ’87 World Series team, he won a Gold Glove in the 1988 season, the third consecutive season in which he accomplished that. He also had a .905 OPS, hit over .300 for the only season in his career, and clubbed 28 homers. He was known for being the energy-bringer to the clubhouse. After the season, Sports Illustrated ran an article in which they surveyed all AL Managers who they thought the best third baseman in the league was, and 10 of them said Gaetti. Fun fact, he recording his final major league hit off of Johan Santana.
OF - Kirby Pickett - 1988, his third time making the team. It was a great season for him as he led the league in hits (234), total bases (358), hit .356 (the best RH batting average since Joe DiMaggio in 1941), hit 24 home runs, and won the Gold Glove in centerfield. He also won the Silver Slugger, and finished 3rd in MVP balloting in his 7.8 WAR campaign. He notched his 1000th hit in ’88, in just his 5th season. He was the 4th player in history to reach that accomplishment. And, maybe most importantly, I ran into Kirby in 1988 at a Red Owl grocery store. That was the highlight of my 5-year-old life to that point, as I got his autograph on a napkin. He was a lot of fun to watch, and to meet. As Twins fans know all-too-well, he was yet another Twins superstar whose career was cut short by injuries.
OF - Gary Ward - 1983. While he didn’t put up any standout metrics, he was solid across the board offensively and defensively, above average everywhere you look. With Puckett’s emergence, Ward was traded after the season for a couple of starting pitchers that didn’t do much other than eat innings.
OF - Tom Brunansky - 1985. Similar to Laudner, Bruno didn’t really deserve to be an All-Star. His lone AS season featured slightly above average hitting with decent power at a 104 OPS+, but well-below-average defense. He finished with 1.4 WAR, below the threshold of being an everyday player. He did participate in the first-ever Home Run Derby, finishing sexond. He had two claims to fame, but neither fell in this All-Star season. First, he was a part of the ’87 World Series team. Second, he once hit an inside-the-park grand slam.
On the whole, the 1980s all-decade team finished with just 32.5 WAR, with half of that belonging to Puckett and Viola. With the 52 replacement-level wins, the all-decade team finished at 84.5 wins, just above .500. Advantage: 1960s.

Before looking at the remaining decades, do you think the 80s all-decade team was the worst? Comment below, and stay tuned for tomorrow’s look at the 1990s.

Relievers are a different then starters so judging a reliever by just his ERA doesn’t tell the whole story.  So lets look at Theilbar and see if he has been successful for the season or not so far.  We are going to start by going through game logs and comparing to a reliever with a similar ERA and another who is getting the job done and make notes.
As of the All-Star break Theilbar has pitched in 31 games with 22.1 innings and given up 14 earned runs for a 5.64 ERA.  In his 31 games he has 8 games where he has given up runs.  Or just in 25.8% of his games.  He has the following breakdown of Earned Runs given up in his appearances.
1 game with 4 earned runs
1 game with 3 earned runs
1 game with 2 earned runs
5 games with 1 earned run
I wanted to point out that half of his earned runs came in two appearances spanning 1/3 of an inning.  He gave up 3 runs in his first game of the season coming off of the disabled list. And 4 runs in another appearance.  Without those two appearances his ERA is under 3.00 which is almost in half.  
Lets compare with Funderburk who has appeared in 26 games with 33.2 innings and a 5.61 ERA.  Funderburk has given up runs in 13 or half of his appearances.  Now to be fair he is averaging over 40% more innings per appearance than Theilbar.  But at the end of the day.  Theilbar has a significantly better rate of pitching a scoreless appearance.
Funderburk has the following distribution of runs given up. 
1 game of 4 earned runs
1 game of 3 earned runs
3 games of 2 earned runs
8 games of 1 earned run
for comparisons sake, if you take out Funderburk's two worst appearances his ERA is still over 4. which is a reduction in ERA of around 1.5 ERA vs Theilbar's almost 3 ERA improvement from taking out his 2 worst appearances.  
Now lets look at a reliever who is deemed to be having a great year in Jax.
Jax has pitched in 44 games and given up earned runs in 8 of them.  18.2% of his appearances he has given up earned runs. 
His distribution is
1 game with 2 earned runs
7 games with 1 earned run.
The difference between these two is 2 appearances with an earned run by Theilbar more that Jax and that two of his appearances he was blown out with 3 and 4 runs during his appearance.  So that is those 2 appearances with 7 combined earned runs out of his 31 appearances makeup the difference between Theilbar and Jax level effectiveness in terms of % of appearances without giving up an Earned Run.  also pointing out that taking out Jax's 2 worst appearances amounts to 3 earned runs in 1 inning, so his ERA drops from 1.91 to 1.31 which is only .6 earned runs per 9 innings compared to the almost 3.ERA drop from Theilbar's two worst appearances.  Thus, making Theilbar's 2 worst appearances more costly to his overall numbers.
And lastly let's look at Theilbar vs previous Theilbar and see how he fares against last year's record.  Last year Theilbar gave up earned runs in 8 of his 36 appearances or in 22.2% of his appearances.  He had the distribution of
3 games with 2 earned runs
5 games with 1 earned run
The difference between this year's Theilbar and last year's Theilbar is 5 more scoreless appearances, and in two of them he gave up more runs.  With a few more scoreless appearances he could be just as successful at run prevention per appearance as last year.
Why then do we feel like Theilbar should be on the chopping block.  Here is an observation.  By June 12th he had 3 out of 6 appearances where he gave up runs including one where he gave up 4 earned runs in an appearance.  At that point he had given up runs in 8 of his 23 appearances, which is in 34.8% of them.  He was looking like a candidate to be reassigned.  He only had 3 more appearances in June.  And he has 5 more in July where he has not given up an earned run.  Also, his two worst appearances skew his ERA more than the other 2 examples by a long shot which also makes it seem his season is worse than it is.  It seems like he has turned a corner and being more effective overall.  I think it says that Thielbar is having more of an OK season that a bad one.  He was having a borderline bad one and then it seems he has turned a corner. 
I do not think this method of evaluation is the only way to look at a reliever’s success, but it does help to remove or minimize the view of the damage 2 bad appearances do for a reliever.  How does this view affect your view of his season so far?  Is his season more just OK then awful? 

The Twins front office and scouting department have done a really good job in recent drafts in finding talent later on, essentially throwing darts at a lot of strike throwing, but low velocity pitchers and this draft class was no different. 
Christian Beccera, Xavier Kolhosser, Jacob Kisting, Cole Peschl, Aidan Haugh, Michael Ross, Merit Jones and Logan Whittaker were 8 of the 10 picks the Twins made on day three, all that were starters at some point in College. Air Force third basemen Jay Thomason was the only position player taken. But the other player I've not mentioned up to this point is probably my favorite pick the Twins made in the late rounds. That being 11th round pick in LHP Michael Carpenter. Committed to Eastern Carolina as a JUCO transfer out of Madison College, Carpenter put up video game like numbers at just 19 years old. Carpenter was named an NJCAA All American after posting a 1.03 ERA and broke the school's single season record for strikeouts with 111 in 78.1 innings pitched with just 11 walks. He also threw 7 complete games. And just look at this stretch he went on in the middle of the season.
In the 11th round in last year's draft, the Twins took Iowa RHP Ty Langdenberg, who was already promoted to Cedar Rapids this year after posting a 3.68 ERA at Fort Myers. Langdenberg is obviously a bit more polished, coming out of Iowa and also being older at 22 years old. Carpenter is intriging to me because of how young he is at just 19, a three-pitch mix that starts with a fastball that tops around 93 with what scouts describe as "deceptive".  It feels like that despite the level of competion that will jump for Carpenter depending on if he signs and where he plays to finish out this season, he feels like an arm to really keep an eye out on in the system. The Twins don't really have a strong left handed pitching prospect outside of Connor Prielipp and the underrated Cesar Lares, so Carpenter's development is even more key to follow. 
Who was your favorite Twins draft pick? Follow me on X @JuhnTroy and stay followed on my blog, where hopefully I post even more this year. 

In 2023, the Twins starting rotation was the strength of the team. So far in 2024, that has not been the case. Last year, Twins starters combined for a 3.87 ERA (6th in MLB), 1560 strikeouts (led MLB), and 1451.1 innings pitched (3rd in MLB). This year, the team’s ERA has ballooned to 4.14 (19th in MLB), while their starters have pitched 822.1 innings so far (6th in baseball). Their starters still lead MLB in strikeouts with 842, which could be a sign of good things to come. 
Joe Ryan has looked amazing so far, but he’s struggled after good starts in the past. Pablo Lopez is worse in almost every way compared to last season, but some advanced metrics point to future positive regression. Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson have been very good, but the Twins may not feel confident about sending them out to start a playoff game. The lineup and bullpen have carried the Twins despite some inconsistent starters, but once October comes around, the Twins will need another front-line starter to pitch in the playoffs.
Rangers Starters:
In my last article, I previewed the Rangers’ all-start reliever, Kirby Yates. Since then, the Rangers have improved to a 44-49 record, sitting seven games back of the AL West and 7.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. The Rangers are a poor stretch away from their playoff hopes becoming increasingly unlikely, which is very possible with their next six games coming against the Astros and Orioles. If they become sellers, they may have the two most sought-after starters on the market: Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer. 
Nathan Eovaldi is synonymous with playoff success. In 17 career playoff appearances, he’s 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. Eovaldi has a 3.10 ERA this season with 85 strikeouts across 87 innings. The hard-throwing righty generates swings-and-misses 32.5% of the time (85th percentile) while inducing ground balls 48.9% of the time (77th percentile). BaseballSavant’s run value, which is an accumulation of a pitch’s effect on an offense’s chance to score a run, qualifies two of Eovaldi’s pitches as some of the best in baseball. 
In 2024, Eovaldi’s fastball has a run value of 10 (95th percentile), and his offspeed has a run value of 4 (94th percentile). Eovaldi’s breaking ball run value is -2 (24th percentile), which leaves some room for adjustments. The Twins have played around with pitch splits in the past after acquiring new pitchers, potentially giving Eovaldi more upside than he already has. He is making $16 million this year and has a vesting option at $20 million next year if he throws 69 more innings this season. His potential extra year of team control would make it difficult for a team to pry him away from the Rangers, but the Twins have the ammo to do so if they’re willing to take on his contract. 
Max Scherzer is likely the best true rental among starters available at the deadline. Although he is owed $43.3 million in the last year of his three-year deal, the Mets are paying $20.83 million of that salary. Scherzer missed most of the first half of the 2024 season with a back injury, but since returning, he’s been solid in 23.1 innings pitched. Scherzer owns a 3.09 ERA with 17 strikeouts and just three walks. 
Although he doesn’t have the velocity he had earlier in his career, Scherzer still gets opposing hitters to chase 31.3% of the time while holding them to an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph. Despite this small sample size, Scherzer has an xERA of 2.74 and an xBA of .218. Scherzer has 171 strikeouts in 143 career playoff innings. Most contending teams should call the Rangers regarding Scherzer, but the Twins must do their due diligence on the 39-year-old starter (despite his no-trade clause), as they are in need of another playoff-caliber starting pitcher.  
Jack Flaherty:
After starting out hot, the Detroit Tigers have fallen back down to earth. They sit at 45-49 and will most likely be sellers at the trade deadline. Their recent regression has nothing to do with their new starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has enjoyed a career resurgence after signing a one-year $14 million deal this offseason. Through 95 innings, Flarhety has a 3.13 ERA with 119 strikeouts and 16 walks. Although his ERA is still great, Flarhety’s underlying metrics are even better. His xERA is 2.91 (89th percentile), while his xBA is .220 (79th percentile). His whiff rate (33.3%) and K% (32.1%) sit in the 94th percentile, while his BB% (4.3%) sits in the 95th percentile among major league pitchers. He has some of the best breaking pitches in baseball, as they’ve racked up a run value of 8 (96th percentile). With Flaherty heading for free agency after this year, one must think that the Tigers have no reason to keep him. The Twins should do everything in their power to go after Flaherty, especially if they strike out on the starters mentioned above. 
The Twins’ playoff success in 2023 was highlighted by strong starting pitching. Although others have stepped up this year, the Twins don’t have a starter that’s replaced Sonny Gray’s production. Starters like Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Jack Flaherty offer a veteran presence and prior playoff success that the Twins rotation lacks. The expanded playoffs ensure a seller’s market, and the scarcity of frontline starters available at this year’s deadline will make it difficult for the Twins to swing a deal. Ownership had the opportunity to replace Gray in free agency, but instead, they opted to cut $30 million of payroll. This is their opportunity to regain the trust of the fanbase by going all-in on a talented roster filled with upside.  



 

Since posting my first trade-target article, the Twins have remained hot. Although they trail Cleveland by six games,  Minnensota’s 48-37 record further cements them as buyers at the trade deadline. Other teams, however, are struggling as the trade deadline approaches. Three potential trade candidates from these teams could be on the move: the Texas Rangers’ Kirby Yates, the Washington Nationals’ Robert Garcia, and the Miami Marlins’ Tanner Scott. Each player is enticing for different reasons, and they could all strengthen contenders’ bullpens down the stretch. 
 
Kirby Yates
The reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers are struggling, with a 39-46 record. They already find themselves seven games back in the AL West and are in contention for the last Wild Card spot. If their struggles continue, they may be one of baseball’s most shocking sellers. The Rangers have a surplus of talent, including right-handed reliever Kirby Yates. Yates is on his sixth team in ten years as he finishes his one-year $4.5 million deal with Texas. Although Yates averages only 93.1mph on his fastball, his underlying metrics are incredible. He’s in the 96th percentile for whiff rate (34.5%) and strikeout rate (34.2%), and he’s third in MLB in ERA (0.95) among pitchers with at least 100 batters faced. A 0.95 ERA isn’t sustainable, but few signs point to regression. Yates leads baseball in xERA (1.93), and he’s in the 99th percentile for xBA (.164), barrel percentage (1.7%), and xSLG (.214). As a 37-year-old reliever on an expiring contract, it’s unlikely that Yates shouldn’t fetch a massive package at the deadline if the Rangers decide to sell. 
 
Robert Garcia
Garcia has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season. At first glance, his 4.44 ERA doesn’t stand out. His xERA, however, is 2.57 (96th percentile), a whopping 1.87 difference from his actual ERA. This difference is explained by his .375 BABIP, which is 11th out of 389 pitchers with 100+ batters faced. Garcia is already 28 years old but hasn’t yet accumulated an entire season of service time. He makes only $743k this season and is under team control until 2030. I can’t imagine that the Twins will assemble the type of package needed to snag Garcia, and ownership must decide between paying or trading prospects. Garcia meets a need for the Twins, as he has enormous swing-and-miss stuff (33.3% strikeout rate) from the left side. He could help offset Caleb Thielbar’s regression and replace him as the dominant leftie out of the Twins bullpen down the stretch.  
 
Tanner Scott
The Miami Marlins are just one game ahead of the NL-worst Colorado Rockies, with a 30-55 record. Few things have gone their way during the 2024 season, but Tanner Scott has been a bright spot. Miami has already begun selling (former-Twin Luis Arraez), and there’s no sign that they’ll stop there. Scott, like Garcia, is another dominant leftie. He has the lowest average exit velocity in baseball (83.4 mph), and he averages nearly 97 mph with his fastball. Along with his elite ability to induce weak contact, Scott is more than capable of getting swings and misses, with his 31.7% whiff rate (90th percentile). He also generates ground balls at a 51.7% clip (87th percentile). Scott is finishing his one-year $5.7 million deal with the Marlins, meaning the Twins won’t have to give up as much prospect capital as they would for other relievers who are under team control for more than one year. The Twins can afford to take on the rest of his deal, making this a possible fit. 
 
The trade deadline often brings unforeseen moves that shape the future of both buyers and sellers. For the Texas Rangers, Kirby Yates’s performance could yield some MLB-ready prospects to retool for next year. Despite his age and expiring contract, Yates’ absurd underlying metrics could land him in the back end of a contender’s bullpen. For the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, the performances of Robert Garcia and Tanner Scott could land them some much-needed talent for their farm systems. Garcia’s unlucky BABIP and xERA could lead to some positive regression, while Scott’s ability to induce weak ground balls makes him a prime candidate to be a set-up man for a winning team. As the deadline inches closer, these players could be on the move, potentially changing the outlook of Major League Baseball’s postseason race. 

 

As we have recently crossed the halfway point of the 2024 season, my next two posts will be taking a look at our most (and least) valuable players by win probability added (or subtracted). We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!
We will begin by looking at the five least valuable players of the first half. Nothing here surprised me based on the eye test, or looking at their WAR. Without further ado, we will start with the player who has helped the team the least so far this season. 
Christian Vazquez - C - (-1.75 WPA) 
Vasquez has not been good, by any measuring tool. He’s been the worst hitter by WAR, and it’s not close. In fact, his OPS+ has been historically bad. Think Drew Butera territory, then lose another 50 points of OPS and you are in the ball park. Somewhat interestingly, he hasn’t even really had any individual good games. His best single game increased the team’s chances to win by just 11%. Most of his games have been negative. To compound things, he has come up to bat in some key moments. Spoiler: he generally has not come through. And, by WPA, he has cost the team three and a half wins so far. 
 
Steven Okert - RP (-.78 WPA)
Okert hasn’t been great, but he also has been very un-clutch. So far this season, in limited action, he has had four bad games. The worst was on 5/6, when he decreased their chances to win by 44% - almost an entire loss on his shoulders. Okert came into the game against the Mariners with the Twins up 4-2 and the bases loaded. It began as Jay Jackson’s mess, but Okert immediately gave up a grand slam and the Twins went on to lose.
 
Louis Varland - SP (-.76 WPA)
It’s telling that despite Varland’s last two spot starts being solid or better, he is still very negative in WPA on the season. His first starts of April prior to his demotion were just that bad. Consider the following: in three of his four April starts, he cost the team at least a 25% likelihood to win the game. The worst was on 4/15 against the Orioles, when his WPA was -.34 due to allowing 11 hits, 2 HR, and 4 runs over 5 innings. Tough to win against a good team in that situation. Of course, he was demoted immediately following this start, and may be figuring out his form again after his stint at STP.
 
Kyle Farmer - IF (-.66 WPA)
Team leader? Yes. Versatile? Sure. A good hitter? Maybe not any more. Similar to Vazquez, the problem is he just hasn’t had many good games to balance the bad ones. His worst, in limited action, was on 4/13 against the Tigers. While the Twins won, it was no thanks to Farmer’s performance. He struck out with the bases loaded in the top of the 12th inning. Luckily, the rest of the team showed up to batting practice and the Twins scored 7 runs in the 12th for the win. His playing time has slumped along with his performance, and the end may be near for him.
 
Manny Margot - OF (-.63 WPA)        
Yes, Manny Margot has been much better for the past month. However, it will take him a couple more months at this level just to reach a neutral WPA. He was just that bad for April and May. Funnily enough, his worst game was the same as Farmer’s. He went 0-fer and left runners on base multiple times.
Stay tuned for tomorrow, and the recap of our top-5 WPA leaders in the first half.
What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the bottom performers turn it around in the second half? Comment below to start the discussion!     

Twins fans of a certain age still bear the wounds of Terry Ryan non-tendering David Ortiz prior to the 2003 season prior to his first year of arbitration. Ryan was infamous for this — saving ownership money even when he didn’t have that specific mandate. After the non-tender, Ortiz, of course, went on to become Big Papi. He led the Red Sox to multiple World Series titles. Over his career, he was a 10x All-Star, and won Silver Slugger at DH no fewer than 6 times. He’s in the Hall of Fame, and went on to accumulate over 50 bWAR.
This article is not about David Ortiz, however. It’s about another player who was non-tendered, and this time, the Twins were the beneficiary. We are, of course, talking about Willi Castro. As you read on, you will see a direct side-by-side comparison of the two players who found themselves in similar situations, for similar reasons, two decades apart.
To be clear, Ortiz and Castro are not similar players. One was a hulking slugger with a great eye at the plate, and the other is a toolsy, speedy utility player. As such, we won’t be looking at hitting profiles or batted ball data. What we will be looking at are some commonalities in the value they provided (and in Castro’s case, continue to provide) their respective teams.
First, let’s look at Ortiz’ last season with the Twins, and the first two seasons after the Red Sox signed him.

Next, here’s the same time window for Castro - his last season with the Tigers, and his first season and change with the Twins.

Looking just at this data, a few things stand out.
The bWAR they produced over the three year stretch is strikingly similar. Ortiz was slightly more valuable over that stretch, but it’s close. If Castro continues his production for the first half of this season, he is set to outpace Ortiz’ first All-Star season in 2004, during which he won Silver Slugger and received down ballot MVP votes. The teams’ winning percentages are also almost identical when they are playing. Again, Castro has a very slight edge over Ortiz. Castro is a year younger than Ortiz was in his second season with the Red Sox, and Castro is just hitting his prime. Castro, of course, has also been much cheaper - this season, he’s making maybe a third of what Ortiz was making, adjusted for inflation, in 2004. After unpacking all of this, it seems that Willi Castro is deserving of a new nickname - Little Papi.
Will he have a HOF-worthy career like Big Papi, or is this the best he has to offer? Realistically, the latter is more realistic. However, it’s great to be the recipient of another team’s self-scouting error, and it helps the Twins’ changes for a deep postseason run when they can find this kind of surplus value - and in general, when they can sign a borderline All-Star for next to nothing. He has been one of the Twins’ most consistent - and valuable - players over the past year of a half, and his style of play brings a different dynamic than many of their other players. He has also brought tremendous defensive flexibility, playing every position so far this season except 1B and C.
Should my Little Papi nickname stick? Is it a fun comparison? What do you think about the surplus value he has added with his bat, speed, and versatility? Comment below with your thoughts!

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that Chris Paddack has been placed on the 15 day Injured List. The corresponding transaction is a call up of Ronny Henriquez. With the Monday off day, Ober can start on Thursday in Arizona on regular rest. Boushley and Dobnak would also be on regular rest to start Thursday, while Varland and Festa both pitched "within the last few days" and would not be available to start Thursday. That obviously doesn't mean they couldn't start Ober on Thursday and bring someone up to start Friday or Saturday if they wanted to stretch the rotation a day. My guess is he Henriquez is up because he can be easily sent back down on Thursday or after the Arizona series, and that they will call up a starter for one of the games in Seattle The corresponding move for a starter call up would be either sending Henriquez back to AAA or perhaps putting Thielbar on the IL.

We are closing in on Trade deadline season, that time when we all can fantasize about trading mid-level prospects for other team's stars. Before we get there though, we need to decide what this team actually needs and evaluate whether there are in-house options that can fill the bill. Trading at the deadline is always high-risk and very expensive in terms of prospects. It always cost more than you think to get another teams solid, mid-level veteran and they're often on expiring contracts making them mere short term rentals.
What Do We Need?
I think our needs are pretty straightforward. We have a pretty good rotation that lacks backend depth, about 75% of a good bullpen, and about 80% of a strong lineup that could really use another middle of the order bat or leadoff hitter. An addition in each of those areas be great. It would be helpful if the starter was left-handed, the reliever a viable seventh or eighth inning option, and if the hitter could play 2B or corner OF. I say the latter on the assumption that if we could bring up a hitter that can play well at second base, Willi Castro could be an everyday corner OF. He is actually pretty good out there in the field.
Who Should We Try In-House?
I actually think we may have solutions to all three spots presently on our AAA club. Looking at them from most likely to fill in house to least likely, at least in my view:
Let's start with the hitter. Brooks Lee has been tearing up AAA since he came off the injured list - .367/.421/.561 (.982), with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 9 walks against only 14 strikeouts in 107  PAs, 98 ABs. Published reports say that he had basically made the team out of Spring Training before his back seized up so he must've held his own against major league pitching, at least this spring. He could come up and be an everyday 2B and our primary backup SS, with Castro moving to basically an everyday job in LF. We could create space for him by either putting Kepler on the IL to give Lee a try, shutting down Larnach through the ASB so he can actually recover from the turf toe problem, or parting ways with Farmer through a trade or DFA. Also, another injury opens the spot. This run of good health won't last forever.
I don't think that Matt Wallner is likely to be the answer, at least not now. He is absolutely hitting better at AAA than he was but he has 86 strikeouts in 250 AAA at bats, an almost 33% strikeout rate at the AAA level. Over the last two seasons he has struck out 97 times in 269 plate appearances at the MLB level, an over 36% rate. I think you have to wait until the strikeout rate goes down in AAA to at least around 25% before you can give Wallner another shot, especially when you remember how bad he was in the playoffs, how bad he was in Spring Training, and how horrendous his line was at the MLB level to start the season (.080/.273/.240 (.513)) before he was sent down. I believe in Wallner as a future solid MLB player but I do not think he is a short-term solution and probably not a solution for this season IMHO.
Bullpen help? I think the answer is actually pretty obvious - Louie Varland. I understand why they keep him stretched out at the AAA level as rotation depth. I do think there's a way to do that at the MLB level by having him pitch some long relief like he did last week against Oakland. If the need arises for him to become a starter, you can start with having him as the "bulk" pitcher on the bullpen day and slowly build him back up. At this point, the best we can hope for from him as a starter at the MLB level is a series of 5 or 6 inning starts and his track record this year suggests an ERA over 5. I don't think he's the answer for the rotation help. I know he's trying to learn a changeup so he can be an MLB starter. He can do that in the off-season and next year's spring training so he can help the Twins now. I would call him up now and put him in the bullpen while telling him that they'll stretch him out and give them another chance as a starter next year. Again, putting him on the roster shouldn't be too hard considering how bad Thielbar is pitching which suggests an injury that should result in an IL stint through the ASB. He could also come up and take Cole Sands place. Once again, any sort of injury would provide the opening.
How about the rotation? That may be a toughest one of all. I don't think Louie Varland is the answer. Festa might be and Boushley could be the kind of guy who has that one great career year and we catch lightning in a bottle. If either one can come up and give us some innings with an ERA even the 4.5 – 5 range, that would be perfectly okay for a number 5 starter. I just read that even Paddack thinks he needs a break as he comes back from a second TJ surgery. Now is the time. Put Paddack on the 15 day IL through the ASB and call up Festa (my choice) or Boushley. Give him three starts before the ASB and see what you have. Only way to know if we need to trade for a starter. 
What To Do and When
I think we need to try our in-house options before this FO gets fleeced again at the trade deadline for a mediocre veteran or a pitcher with arm trouble. To me, the moves are pretty clear and the time to make those moves is NOW, not two weeks from now, NOW. Let's give ourselves a chance to really evaluate these guys so a month from now we know whether there's any chance that any of our in-house options can work, whether we need to be out in the trade market,  or whether we should just decide that this isn't our year to do much more than sneak into the playoffs and get bounced early.
In sum, here are the moves to make:
Brooks Lee up, either Kepler or Larnach to the IL (or, if possible, a trade of Farmer)
Louie Varland up for the bullpen, Thielbar to the 15 day IL
David Festa up, Paddack to the 15 day IL
I would make the move with  Lee today on an off day so he is available in Arizona. I would bring up Festa for Thursday's start place of Paddack, and would Il Thielbar later this week to bring up Varland since Louie just pitched and got blown out yesterday. Varland's probably not available till at least Wednesday or Thursday. The latest I would make these moves is next Monday when we return from this road trip but I think that is too close to the ASB to be helpful.
What you guys think of these moves? Are there others that should be made in addition or instead of these? Inquiring minds want to know your thoughts . . .

Is Royce Lewis for real?
If you were to survey every Twins fan around their favorite current player, Royce Lewis would likely be near the top - and for good reason. So far this season, Royce Lewis has been doing very Royce Lewis things - being a spark plug for the offense, hitting a ton of bombs, and generally doing everything right. On a nearly daily basis, he is being recognized on the TV and radio broadcasts for doing things that just aren’t done. For example, he’s been hitting HRs at a higher rate than Barry Bonds. He’s one of just a handful of hitters to hit 10 HR in their first 16 games of a season. He’s been worth 1.6 bWAR in 16 games. You can go on an on. But, is he for real? Can he keep this up?
No. At least, probably not. Regression will come eventually. However, the drop-off may not be as big as you would think.
Looking at his batted ball data on Baseball Savant, there are a few things that stand out. First, check out all the red. Makes sense, since he’s been crushing. However, he’s also walking at an elite level, and striking out at an elite level too. He’s barreling up in the 100th percentile, and his bat speed is great.
Second, this isn’t a case of a young player being thrown a bunch of prove-it fastballs. Royce has been crushing pitches of EVERY type. As you can see, his expected batting average is over .300 across the board, and his actually performing the WORST against heaters. That’s unusual, and it’s a sign of his maturity at the plate, his pitch recognition, and his quick hands.

Third, his homers have not been wall-scrapers. Of his 10 homers so far this season, 70% have been no-doubters, and the others would have been out in most ballparks.

Fourth, looking at his year over year progress, we can see that this is a case of a young player, not yet hitting his prime, showing real improvement year over year, across the board. He’s swinging less outside the zone, he’s ambushing pitchers, and he’s optimizing his launch angle. In short, he’s got a sweet swing.

Finally, let’s take one gratuitous look at some player comps. Yes, this is a VERY small sample size. But, the comps on this list are also the short list of MVP favorites.   

Looking at the batted ball data, and combining in with the eye test, what do you think? Is Lewis the best player on the team? Does he have MVPs in his future? Or will he fall back down to Earth? Start the discussion below!

Hey, I hope everyone is enjoying the Twins' 9-2 beatdown of the Sacramento A's of Las Vegas by Way of Oakland (even though it's the 5th, but you can join in the official TD Game Thread), but a few questions for everyone as we look ahead to the 2nd half of the season and beyond...
1. Which Twins will represent the AL in the All-Star Game at Globe Life Field next month?
2. Will there be better Pablo (Lopez) Days for number 49 in the 2nd half? (I say yes!)
3. Will Byron Buxton return to 2022 All-Star form in the 2nd half?
4. Who do you think can carry the Twins to the postseason, and FINALLY help Minnesota beat those Darned Yankees in October?
5. How about this for an idea: how about a contingent of Twins Daily members come to Cooperstown, NY for American Idol Joe Mauer's Hall of Fame induction speech? (I still get a kick out of Sports Illustrated calling Mauer the American Idol in their 8/7/06 cover)
6. Which player struggling in '24 must step up in the 2nd half for the Twins to have a deep playoff run, maybe a World Championship?
Well, I believe the Twins can catch the Guardians and win the AL Central again, and this time, we CAN beat the Yankee$ to claim the pennant, and maybe with the right tools and luck, we can win it all (just like the '87 World Series champs that went 85-77 and won it all)!
Let's have the spirit of 1987 come through in these 2024 Twins, and don't forget to wave your Homer Hankies at Target Field...hope they can bring them good luck when we return home from this road trip!
 

I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
 
But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.

Generally speaking, I traditionally buy-in to the theory that the AL Central is historically, and remains the worst division in baseball. The typical format we centralites live by is 3-teams who are so incredibly mediocre (often fighting for an 87-win division title), then two teams who routinely battle for the crown of worst team in baseball. Miraculously, that is not the case in 2024. 
This year, though we still have a team fighting for the worst team in baseball (Sorry ChiSox), we have something else as well. We are the only team in baseball right now with 3-teams with 40+ wins. In fact, only one other division (the AL East) has two teams with 40+ wins. 
Is it time to reevaluate the Central? 

The Athletic just published an article about "FIve Trades I'd Like To See" before the MLB trade deadline. One of them involved the Twins trading for Pete Alonso:
Twins get: Pete Alonso
Mets get: Alex Kirilloff, David Festa, Luke Keaschall
I for one would be very irritated if the Twins made this trade. Let's start with what we get. Pete Alonso is a great hitter and would be a great fit in the middle of our lineup for the next two or three months. After that, he is going to a high revenue team for 2025 and beyond, most likely returning to the Mets. He likes it there, he likes New York, and it's only a matter of whether they will pony up the money. If the Mets won't pony up the money, another East Coast team will. I have to think the Yankees are looking for a first basemen for next season given Anthony Rizzo's struggles. Alonso is the very definition of a short term one season rental. And that's before we think about whether ownership would be willing to part with the about $8 million he still owed for the rest of the 2024 season.
Now let's think about what we would give up. I am down on Kirilloff as are many others, but he still has high end upside. I wouldn't mind using him as part of a trade given his redundancy with Larnach and Wallner (I think Miranda has won the first base job starting next season unless he falls off the table), but not when you have to give up two quality pieces to go with him. Festa is probably our best starting pitching prospect and certainly the one closest to the Majors. Keaschall is only 21 and looks to have some real upside in the middle infield. That's important when we remember that Correa is only going to be the starting SS for another 3-4 years, when he will age out. Lewis' knee injuries probably leave him at 3B for the foreseeable future. Lee or Keaschall may be the Shortstop starting in 2026 or 2027. Way too big a package for two or three months of Pete Alonso, way too much. I might give up one of the three as long as it wasn't Festa plus a less heralded prospect or two like Schobel or Rosario, but not the three listed. 
My conclusion is this is classic clickbait from a New York homer wanting to improve his team. What say each of you?

I’m sure that we all have a relative who says that they could run a professional sports team better than a real sports executive. Today, that person is me. I will be taking over the Minnesota Twins and I will be making this team a winner. I am discussing some potential trade scenarios for the Minnesota Twins come July 31. I kept in mind the payroll but, most of the deals were pretty small payroll increases that I did ignore the payroll a little. July 31st is the Trade Deadline so let's look at some moves that the Twins should explore.
NOTE:  For this article, we are assuming the Minnesota Twins will be competitive at the deadline and be buyers rather than sellers. I took the role of General Manager after the Pohlads decided that Derek Falvey was too expensive! So who did they decide to hire? An X user (@wyattsversion) with 0 background. This is purely fiction but I studied how Falvey did trades and I considered his style. However, I decided to focus on what I felt was fair and being more aggressive than typical.
First, let’s analyze the previous General Manager. The Minnesota Twins under the Derek Falvey regime have been buyers in 2023, 2022, 2020 and, 2019. Analyzing all of the trades, most were typically for pitching help which is something you can always use. There were no batter trades that I could find in the transaction log which leads me to believe that Falvey doesn’t enjoy trading for batters on rental deals.
Criteria: Trades will be realistic and the value is purely based on what I feel is fair. I will be making 2 trades for each position (Starters, Relievers, and Batters) with one being a superstar/top end player and a bench/depth player. For batters, I am going to throw an extra trade in. Let’s get into the fun!
 
Starters: 

Credits: (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Twins Get: Jesús Luzardo and Cash Considerations
Marlins Get: Gabriel Gonzalez (MLB’s #4), Tanner Schobel (MLB’s #10) and, CJ Culpepper (MLB’s #8)
Twins get a top-end starter and give up 3 top 10 prospects which may put many on edge with the trade but, the trade makes perfect sense. Gonzalez is still young and is the headliner of the Twins deal but don’t discredit Cullpepper and Schobell. Both are having pretty good seasons, Schobell has started to turn the year around a bit but, Culpepper has proven the Falvey late-round pitcher pipeline. It would be sad to lose him but we have Festa, Raya and, even pitchers such as Cory Lewis who should be ready for a big-league role before Culpepper. Luzardo gives the Twins an extra year of control and a chance to see what he’s made of before they decide if they want to extend him or not. He would be a great addition to the Twins rotation that is in need of another firepower pitcher.
 

Credit: (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
Twins Get: Frankie Montas (Reds retain 50% of the deal)
Reds Get: Ben Ross (MLB’s #28) and Cash Considerations
Frankie Montas’s underlying metrics are far from good but that is what makes him a depth trade. Frankie has been decent so far, he belts a 4.6 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. These numbers are not great but compared to what the Twins have, if a pitcher is not performing well at the deadline or the Twins want another veteran pitcher with experience he is a great pick-up. The Reds would likely need to carry a bit of his salary to keep the Twins’s payroll in check, he does come with an option. This is why I chose him over someone such as Austin Gomber, Sean Manaea, or Cal Quantrill. They all had been options I thought of but none had as much experience as Frankie did.
 
Relievers:

Credit: (Thomas Shea/USA TODAY Sports)
Twins Get: Ryan Pressly (Hou retains 75% of 2024, 25% of option)
Astros Get: Caleb Boushley, PTBNL
I initially considered Ryan Helsley or JoJo Romero but the Twins would not want to pay that much for the hefty price of their control. Pressly is a great reliever who has history in Minnesota. Pressly would likely not be worth much and the Astros may want to pick up some players to counteract for the loss of the reliever. Boushley gives them experience as a major leaguer. He may not be valuable but, how valuable is a 35 year old reliever with a 5 era? The PTBNL is there as I feel that Caleb isn’t enough and another prospect would fit but I couldn’t decide which. We make real MLB Trades here with players to be named later. Pressly gets a shot at a new venue and the Twins get a reliable reliever with a great playoff history that could be vital come October.
 

Credit: (Getty Images)
Twins Get: Wandy Peralta, Cash
Padres Get: Yunior Severino (MLB’s 22) and Jose Salas (Not Ranked)
The Twins give up two infield prospects that have not lived up to their promise (Salas being a top 100 prospect and Yunior’s 2023). They get a fresh start and Jose gets reunited with his brother, Ethan. Wandy signed a new deal but has been stellar this year and will likely opt out after this year. It would not shock me if the Padres try and get something out of him. The trade would make sense as the Twins get a nice middle relief pitcher and the Padres can reload the farm system. His metrics are not great but at the end of the day, a rental piece is purely a rental piece.
 
Batters:

Credit: (Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Twins Get:  Mark Canha
Tigers Get: Keoni Cavaco (Not Ranked)
The Keoni Cavaco experience as we know it needs to end. It is sad but, he needs a change of scenery. Mark Canha gives you a decent glove and a good bat that can hit righties and lefties (ahem. Margot). He also is 35 which is why his value to me is quite low. I am fine parting with a former draft prick that did not work. It is sad that the Twins went with Cavaco instead of some of the better options that were the next few picks. Canha has been very good in his age 35 season and could be resigned while the Twins wait for Kepler to resign or whatever happens this offseason.

Credit: (Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)
Twins Get: Luis Rengifo
Angels Get: Luke Keaschall (MLB’s #9) and Andrew Morris (MLB’s #20) 
Assuming the struggles from Farmer and Julien continue, the Minnesota Twins NEED a second baseman. While Rengifo is not a .300 hitter he is hitting his way into a prime trade target. Keaschall and Morris are both having great years but sometimes you need to trade these prospects to get the help you need in the majors right away. Rengifo also comes with a year of control that the twins could utilize to get some prospects back next deadline or earlier. The Twins would need to be willing to get rid of Farmer or let Julien sit in Saint Paul for this to work but, that is not part of my criteria. He is a candidate the Twins should consider if they still need help come July.
 
 
Credit: (Sports Illustrated) (SportsNet New York)
Twins Get: Pete Alonso and Nick Morabito (MLB’s #26)
Mets Get: Brooks Lee (MLB’s #3) and Gabriel Gonzalez (MLB’s #4)
 
This deal may seem like what may just be Pete Alonso but, Nick has improved each level he has jumped. He sports a (.350/.472/.469) line and has a plus arm. The Twins give up 2 of their biggest prospects but I argue that Nick could meet or exceed the status of Gonzalez. I am not GM however and I am merely going off of stats and watching tiny bits of film. I think that if Alonso agrees to stay, the Twins could be a contender as soon as this season. Alonso was a pure fun idea I had and I really doubt they would go for him unless the Mets agreed to pay part of his contract. I do not think I need to rationalize how great he would be for the Twins. You could argue Vlad and I almost did, I felt as if Vlad has the higher upside but his value is likely a lot more and I did not feel comfortable doing that trade.
This was a fun idea for me to spend the Twins game doing as they defeated the Astros. If you guys are interested in this type of content, let me know! I would be happy to discuss more trades and even the draft… 
I AM OPEN TO CRITICISM AND COMMENTS. PLEASE DO COMMENT YOUR IDEAS SO I CAN IMPROVE MY WRITING STYLE AND IMPROVE THE SERIES.
 

With the recent good news that Royce Lewis it's just about ready to start an assumedly short rehab assignment, one's mind turns to what happens when he's ready to rejoin the Twins. You have to think that he'll be playing 3B at least three or four times a week and probably more, and we have Castro as a potential 3B backup. What happens to José Miranda in that scenario?
First, the facts. Miranda is hitting .276/.315/.457 (.772) with 4 HRs, 7 Doubles, and 12 RBIs in 105 ABs. He has 16 SOs and 4 walks, (14.5% SO rate, 3.7% walk rate). He's better against LH pitching – .807 OPS – but still respectable against RH pitching with a .722 OPS. His defense at 3B, once a weakness, has improved to a little below average average, with a -2 OAA at 3B and a 0 OAA at 1B. His Statcast chart is not particularly impressive, above average in some things but very little red other than being on the 74th percentile in whiff rate in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. In other words, the stats so far indicate a little better-than-average player at age 25 with about 750 at bats in MLB so far. Those latter two facts suggest that there is room for improvement to a solidly above average hitter who is an average or slightly above fielder, but those results are far from assured.
I think the Twins have to keep Miranda on the roster and I think he needs to play. His team needs quality RH hitters in the worst way, and Miranda is really the only reinforcement option. Lewis can obviously hit, Correa is a quality hitter, and both Buxton and Jeffers are streaky. The rest of them? Not much there. Margot and Vasquez are well below average hitters even if you only count Margot hitting from the right side. Santana can hit right-handed but is a black hole left-handed, and from a hitting standpoint should only start against left-handed pitching. Farmer can hit left-handed pitching or at least could in the past but he's nearing the end of his career and it's unlikely he's going to have a big pop during this season. he's also somewhere else next year. I think you have to keep Miranda around for his bat and hope his defense improves.
So where do you play him once Lewis is back to play 3B? I think the answer is pretty simple. Miranda plays 4 to 5 days a week, 3 to 4 of them as the 1B against right-handed pitching, a day or two at 3B for Lewis when he is the DH, and he can be the DH once a week, maybe twice. I would also look at him at 2B as the RH alternative to Edward Julien unless Rocco comes to his senses and starts playing Julien every day. Miranda was a 2B in the minors, he's here for the long term, and he's a better hitter than Farmer. I would suggest trying him in LF, but I know they did that in the minors and I hear it was an unmitigated disaster. So my view is Miranda needs to stay, play regularly, and do it in a combination of 1B and 3B. 
This decision is coming in is coming within the next couple weeks hopefully. What he is everybody think?

SO yet again  Baldelli pinch hits  for the lead off batter and the#2 batter in the 5th inning!!!????
 
you have your starting lineup for 4 out of 9 innings.
you pinch hit a guy hitting under .200 and an OPS under .500 for your leadoff guy, and you pinch  another guy under .200 BA and under .500 OPS for a guy hitting .354 &.928!!
 
Thsi SHi....  This CRA....  This STUFF  has to stop!!!!

Is Twins' sausage magical? Short answer, No. So why the Twins' turnaround? Let's look at what led up to the winning streak.
Shortly after the '23 season, Falvey credited the "all or nothing" approach for the team's success. BTW it has been the Twins' hitting approach since '19. During the off-season, Baldelli was questioned about their hitters' SO record. He responded with "SOs are not important and they weren't changing anything". Spring training, "all or nothing" was implemented again with poor results. Twins started '24 with 2 wins against a promising KC team, Lewis's injury, later followed by Correa's. Without Lewis & Correa (archetype to Twins hitting philosophy & best hitters) & the league adjusting; the losses & SOs started to pile up w/o the HRs. The turnaround started with the revelation that the "all or nothing" wasn't working. Baldelli stated that they had changed to a more balanced approach. Kiriloff, Martin & Miranda were hitting, Larnach & Kepler returned from the IL with a revamped swing, one by one they started to hit. In the middle of all that the winning streak started before the rally sausage appeared.
Does the rally sausage have anything to do with the streak? Yes, because even with the right approach the pressure to hit was still there. The sausage joke brought levity to the dugout, being more relaxed the hitter could execute. As heart-breaking it was to lose Lewis, it turned out to be a blessing disguised because the following slump opened the eyes of management. IMO we have a great lineup & see no need to try to go outside to change it. Our problem at the beginning of the season wasn't the lineup but the approach & we can't get distracted from that fact with the rally sausage. While I encourage to ride the rally sausage as long as we can, IMO using it as a HR trophy is in bad taste.

April 9
Happy Birthday, Luis Arráez
Happy birthday to 2022 American League and 2023 National League Batting Champion Luis Arráez.
The legend of Luis Arráez began back in 2019, when the rookie entered for the injured Jonathan Schoop down 0-2 in the count to Edwin Diaz—who was throwing 98–100 miles per hour. Arráez fouled off four pitches and took four for balls to work an electrifying walk. (If you don’t get how a walk could be epic, look up the video and I think you’ll understand.)

April 9
Happy Birthday, Joe Brinkman
Happy 80 birthday to 1962 Holdingford graduate and 35-year AL umpire Joe Brinkman. He was the crew chief for the 1987 ALCS, and at third base for Laudner and Gaetti‘s famous pickoff of Darrell Evans.
He worked three World Series: 1978, 1986, and 1995.
He famously ejected Cleveland manager Mike Hargrove and pitcher Doc Gooden in the top of the first inning in Game 2 of the 1998 ALCS.
Playing football for St. Cloud State, he kicked the game-winning field goal for a 15-14 Huskies win over Bemidji State on October 20, 1962.
April 9, 1962
“Rocky” Johnson’s Big Opening Day
President John F. Kennedy threw out the ceremonial first pitch in front of 44,383 fans assembled in the nation’s capital for the first major league game at D.C. Stadium on this date in 1962.
Playing for the Senators, Edina-Morningside graduate Bob “Rocky” Johnson went 3-for-4 with the first homer in the new stadium’s history in a 4-1 win over the Tigers.
Later in life, that home run ball was the most prized memento he had in the lower-level family room of his home on the east side of St. Paul.
April 9, 1995
Allison Passes Away
Bob Allison passed away on this date in 1995 from the effects of ataxia—a rare, incurable disease that affects nerve cells in the brain. He was just 60 years old.
Read Gregory H. Wolf‘s SABR BioProject biography of Allison, which first appeared in the 2015 book, A Pennant for the Twin Cities: The 1965 Minnesota Twins.
April 9, 2000
Twins and Royals Go Back-to-Back-to-Back
After Corey Koskie singled to lead off the top of the sixth, Ron Coomer, Jacque Jones, and Matt LeCroy hit three consecutive home runs on a total of four pitches, extending the Twins lead to 10-0.
Coomer homered again in the seventh inning, again with Koskie on base.
Eric Milton retired the first 20 batters in order and had a two-hit shutout going into the eighth. With two out and two on in the eighth, however, TK relieved Milton and before the end of the inning the Twins bullpen had surrendered three-straight home runs to Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye, and Mike Sweeney.
It was the first time in MLB history that both teams hit three consecutive home runs.
The Twins are one of seven teams to have hit four consecutive home runs, with Tony Oliva, Bob Allison, Jimmie Hall, and Harmon Killebrew doing so to start the top of the 11th in Kansas City on May 2, 1964.
The Twins set an American League record by hitting five home runs in a single inning on June 9, 1966, also against Kansas City, but this time at home in Bloomington, with Rich Rollins, Zoilo Versalles, Tony Oliva, Don Mincher, and Harmon Killebrew homering off three different Athletics pitchers.
Four National League teams have hit five home runs in an inning between 1939 and 2006, all four against the Cincinnati Reds.
April 9, 2010
Drew Butera Makes MLB Debut
Catcher Drew Butera made his major league debut in Chicago on this date in 2010, making him and his dad Sal the first father-son duo in Twins history.

And here is the Twins Almanac for April 8th, featuring:
• Paul Molitor
• Will Clark
• Dan Gladden
• Kirby Puckett
• Byron Buxton
April 8, 1978
Molitor’s Career Off to a Hot Start
The day after hitting an RBI-single in his major league debut, St. Paul native Paul Molitor went 3-for-6 with a three run homer, five RBI, and two runs scored in his second major league game. Guess he was Cooperstown-bound right out of the gate.
April 8, 1986
Bonus Fun Fact
This one isn’t Minnesota-related, but Will Clark homered off Nolan Ryan on his very first major league swing on this date in 1986.
April 8, 1988
Gladden Has Hot Home Opener
Gotta imagine the home opener the season after a team wins a championship would be a pretty festive environment, right? Well, in the Twins case, the left fielder led off the home half of the first inning with a home run—Dan Gladden in 1988 and Shane Mack in 1992. That’s right, the Twins’ very first at-bats back at the Metrodome after winning both the 1987 and 1991 World Series were home runs. Can you imagine the pandemonium inside the Dome?
 
What’s more, both Gladden and Mack went 4-for-5.
Gladden had two home runs, four RBI, and three runs scored including a straight steal of home in a 6-3 win over Toronto in the ’88 home opener. The straight steal of home came off David Wells with Kent Hrbek batting in the seventh inning. It was the first of three straight steals of home in his career.
Gladden had also gone 4-for-5 in the Twins’ previous game two days earlier at Yankee Stadium.
April 8, 1994
Puckett Collects 2,000th Hit
After striking out in his first at-bat, Twins right fielder Kirby Puckett connected for five-straight hits, including his 2,000th hit with an opposite-field single driving in Pat Meares in the bottom of the third.
 
 
Trailing 8-4 in the bottom of the eighth and Oakland closer Dennis Eckersley on the mound, Chuck Knoblauch hit a two-run double followed by a Puckett two-run single to tie the game, giving Eckersley his first blown save of the season.
After Oakland took a 10-8 lead in the top of the tenth, Puckett drove in Knoblauch with a double, but the Athletics held on for a 10-9 win. Altogether, Puckett was 5-for-6 with a double, four RBI, and a run scored in the game.
1980 New Ulm graduate and Golden Gophers all-time great Terry Steinbach homered in the game for Oakland.
April 8, 2021
Buxton Comes Into Home Opener on a Roll
Byron Buxton homered and doubled in the 2021 home opening, setting a new Twins record with an extra-base hit in six-straight games to start the season.
The previous team record for consecutive games with an extra-base hit to start the season was five by Doug Mientkiewicz in 1999 and José Offerman in 2004. (In Offerman’s case, it was his first five games in a Twins uniform.)
The MLB record for consecutive games with an extra-base hit to start the season is eight by Alex Rodriguez and Sandy Alomar Jr.
Buxton’s four home runs through the team’s first seven games were second-most behind Kirby Puckett in 1987. (It was a good year.)

Here is the Twins Almanac for April 7th, featuring:
• Harmon Killebrew
• Brant Alyea
• Jack Morris
• Dwight Evans
• Kent Hrbek
• David Ortiz
• Tsuyoshi Nishioka
April 7–13, 1962
Killebrew on Cover of TV Times
If you were wondering what was on channels 2, 4, 5, 9, and 11 the week of April 7–13, 1962, you could look it up in this issue of TV Times with Harmon Killebrew, Ray Scott, Frank Beutel, and Halsey Hall on the cover.

April 7, 1970
Alyea Ties Team Record in Twins Debut
In his first game as a Twin, outfielder Brant Alyea tied the team record with seven RBI, powering Jim Perry to a 12-0 shutout on Opening Day in Chicago. Alyea went on to drive in 20 runs in the Twins’ first 12 games of the season. But here’s the crazy thing: 19 of those 20 RBI came in Jim Perry’s first four starts. Incidentally, Perry won the AL Cy Young Award in 1970, perhaps thanks in part to Alyea’s run support.
Heckuva start to Alyea’s Twins career. His major league career got off to a hot start, too, homering on the first MLB pitch he saw with the Senators on September 12, 1965. (Worth noting that the manager he was playing for at the time was none other than the Splendid Splinter himself, Ted Williams.)
Alyea equaled the team single-game RBI record again on September 7, 1970, going 3-for-4 with two home runs and driving in all seven Twins runs in a 7-6 win over the Brewers at Met Stadium. It was the beginning of a team record nine-game RBI streak for Alyea.
Glenn Adams established a new team record with eight RBI on June 26, 1977. 
Rod Carew also made Twins history that day, going 4-for-5 with a walk and a team record (since tied) five runs scored, raising his season average to .403.
Randy Bush tied Adams’ team record with eight RBI on May 20, 1989.
April 7, 1984
Morris Pitches No-Hitter
St. Paul native Jack Morris pitched a no-hitter for the Tigers in Chicago on NBC’s nationally televised Game of the Week on this date in 1984.
Some members of the Minnesota sports media, including Jeff Passolt, were actually at the game, being in town for the North Stars versus Blackhawks playoff series. “I remember it being colder than you know what,” Passolt said in 2018. “Hitters didn’t have a chance against Jack’s fireball!”
Morris did get into a jam in the fourth, walking the first three batters before inducing a P-C-1B double play from DH Greg Luzinski, playing in his final major league season. Morris then struck out Ron Kittle to end the inning. He walked six White Sox batters altogether in the 4-0 Tigers win.
Twins lefty Francisco Liriano also issued six walks in his no-hitter on a chilly 42° night in Chicago on May 3, 2011.
In addition to the no-hitter, Morris also pitched three one-hitters in his career, including against the Twins on August 21, 1980.
Perhaps even more impressive than Morris’s no-hitter was a one-hitter he threw against the Royals at Tiger Stadium on July 6, 1990, when he did not issue a walk and faced the minimum. (After surrendering a single to Kurt Stillwell in the top of the first, he promptly induced a 4-6-3 double play from George Brett and was perfect the rest of the way.)
April 7, 1986
Morris Gives Up HR on First Pitch of Season
Dwight Evans hit Jack Morris’s first pitch of the season 400 feet on Opening Day 1986.
Sidenote: Kirby Puckett homered on Morris’s very first pitch of the game on May 2, 1986, and did the same thing to Walt Terrell the next night! 
Morris’s 14 consecutive Opening Day starts (including with the 1991 World Series Champion Minnesota Twins) are the most by a pitcher in MLB history.
April 7, 1987
Hrbek Hits Walk-Off in Opener
After tying the game with his second RBI groundout in the eighth, Kent Hrbek hit a walk-off single in the tenth to give the Twins a 5-4 Opening Day win over Oakland at home in the Dome.
Kirby Puckett homered and doubled, and in the top of the 10th, he robbed Mickey Tettleton of a go-ahead home run.
 
April 7, 2002
Ortiz Season-Starting RBI Streak
David Ortiz homered in a 10-6 win in Toronto on this date in 2002, giving him an RBI in each of the Twins’ first six games of the season—the second-longest RBI streak to start a season in Twins history.
Tony Oliva had an RBI in each of the Twins’ first eight games to start the 1970 season.
April 7, 2011
Nishioka Breaks Leg
Twins second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka broke his leg attempting to turn a double play on this date in 2011.
On the Twins telecast (below), Blyleven immediately rejected any notion of Nick Swisher’s slide being dirty. “That’s the way you play the game,” Blyleven said, “That’s one thing that Nishioka should have known . . . he’s gotta try to get out of the way.”
“He was just breaking up the double play; no issues there,” Ron Gardenhire said after the game. “[Nishioka] just got caught a little flat-footed. Swisher’s a clean player. That’s just a good baseball slide, trying to break up a double play. There’s no intent there.”

TABLE OF CONTENTS:
• Happy Birthday, Bert Blyleven and Joe Barbeln
• Twins Trade Stigman
• Oliva Hits First HR by DH
• First Regular Season Game at Dome
• Puckett and Winfield Thrill the Home Fans
• Offerman's Memorable Twins Debut 
April 6
Happy Birthday, Bert Blyleven
It’s the birthday of two-time World Series Champion and noted flatulence enthusiast Rik Aalbert “Bert” Blyleven, born in Zeist, Holland in 1951. He grew up in Garden Grove, CA, and was drafted by the Twins out of high school in the third round in 1969. 
Bert recorded 3,701 strikeouts during his 22-year Hall of Fame career, which ranked third-most in MLB history at the time he retired, and is still good for fifth all-time behind Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens*, and 1987 teammate Steve Carlton. 
A FEW FUN FACTS:
Bert earned both the 1,000th and 2,000th wins in Twins history—in 1972 and 1985, in between which he played for Texas, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland, and won a World Series with the Pirates in 1979. 
In 1973, Bert set teams records that will likely never be broken with 25 complete games, nine shutouts, and 325 innings pitched. His 258 strikeouts that season stood as the team record for 31 years until Johan Santana K’ed 265 in 2004. (For a little perspective, Nolan Ryan led the majors with 383 strikeouts in 1973 . . . 125 more than Bert’s longtime team record.) 
He pitched a two-hit shutout at Met Stadium in his very first start against the Twins after being traded to the Rangers prior to the 1976 season. 
He was in spring training with the Twins in 1993, attempting to come back for a third stint with the team, but was beat out for a spot in the rotation by Willie Banks and Pat Mahomes. (Mike Trombley made the team out of the bullpen.)

April 6
Happy Birthday, Joe Barbeln
Happy birthday to 1988 St. Michael-Albertville graduate Joe Barbeln. He pitched 4.1 innings of pro ball with single-A Yakima in the Dodgers organization in 1992.
Nice 21-year townball career with the St. Michael Saints. Who can share some interesting stories or fun facts about the North Star League Hall of Famer? Tell me what you know in the comments below. 

April 6, 1966
Twins Trade Stigman
The Twins traded Nimrod, MN native Dick Stigman to the Red Sox for Russ Nixon and Chuck Schilling on this date in 1966. 
Fun Fact: Schilling (along with teammate Carl Yastrzemski) starred for the Minneapolis Millers in 1960—the Millers final season at Met Stadium before the Twins came to town and took over. On May 7 the following year, Schilling was back at Met Stadium with the Red Sox, and hit a grand slam off Camilo Pascual for his first major league home run.
Schilling never played at Met Stadium as a member of the Twins, though. After the trade, the Twins wanted to assign him to the minors, but he opted to retire and put his college degree to use instead.

April 6, 1973
Oliva Hits First HR by DH
With Rod Carew aboard in the top of the first on Opening Day in Oakland, Tony Oliva hit the first regular season home run by a designated hitter in major league history off Catfish Hunter. Coincidentally, it was Oakland owner Charlie Finley who spearheaded the movement for the AL to adopt the DH.
Bert Blyleven pitched the first of his team record 25 complete games of the season as the Twins beat the A’s 8-3.

 
April 6, 1982
First Regular Season Game at Dome
St. Cloud legend Jim Eisenreich was batting leadoff and playing center field when the Twins hosted the Mariners for the first regular season game in the Metrodome on Opening Day 1982. 
Right fielder Dave Engle hit the first home run that counted* in the new ballpark in the first inning.
*Kent Hrbek hit two homers in an exhibition game against the Phillies three days earlier.
Gary Gaetti was thrown out at home trying to stretch a triple into an inside-the-park home run in his first at-bat, but then homered the old-fashioned way in each of his next two at-bats, going 4-for-4 with four RBI and two runs scored in an 11-7 Twins win.
Gaetti’s performance in his first regular season game at the Dome reminds me of his first postseason game at the Dome, when he homered in his first two at-bats off Detroit’s Doyle Alexander.
April 6, 1993
Winfield and Puckett Thrill the Home Fans
After stressing everyone in Minnesota out by testing the free-agent market the previous winter, Kirby Puckett electrified the Metrodome fans by homering on his very first swing of the 1993 season off White Sox ace Jack McDowell, who went on to win 22 games and the AL Cy Young Award that season. 
Kirby homered in three of the first four games of the season. 
 
In addition to Kirby being back, Opening Day 1993 was also the Twins debut of St. Paul native Dave Winfield (age 41). Winny hit a go-ahead home run of McDowell in the third, driving in fellow Minnesota native Kent Hrbek. 
The Winfield signing was exciting for Twins fans. In addition to being a local legend destined for Cooperstown, he was coming off a very good season in Toronto in which he came in fifth in AL MVP balloting and had several highlight hits in the ALCS and World Series.
Kirby Puckett finished runner-up to Dennis Eckersley for the MVP in 1993, so between him and Winfield there was certainly cause for enthusiasm in Minnesota. 
April 6, 2004
Offerman’s Memorable Twins Debut
José Offerman made his Twins debut on this date in 2004, entering as a pinch runner for Matthew LeCroy in the bottom of the 12th inning. (He was stranded on third.) Then, in the bottom of the 14th, he came to the plate for his first Twins at-bat and doubled, moving Jacque Jones over to third with nobody out . . . but Cleveland again escaped the jam. Offerman came up again in the 15th inning with two out and the bases loaded and hit a ground-ball single to center, bringing home Doug Mientkiewicz with the walk-off run.
Offerman had an extra-base hit in each of his first five games to start the season, tying Mientkiewicz’s team record established in 1999. Byron Buxton broke their record with extra-base hits in his first six games of the 2021 season.

TABLE OF CONTENTS:
• Longest HR to CF in Metrodome History
• Molitor’s Three-Year SB Streak Snapped
• Big Comeback in 2000
• Two Minnesotans Make MLB Debuts
• Manager Wins 1,000th Game
• Eleventh Cycle in Team History
April 5, 1994
Muñoz Hits Epic Blast
Pedro Muñoz hit a 473-foot bomb to center field at the Metrodome on this date in 1994. It was the longest homer ever hit to center at the Dome.
The longest homer at the Dome overall was 481 feet to right field by Milwaukee’s Ben Oglivie in 1983. Kent Hrbek crushed a Charlie Hough knuckleball 480 feet to right the following season.
As imprecise of a science as home run measurements are, they couldn’t find an extra foot or two for the hometown kid?!
Mark McGwire hit a 475-foot homer to left field in 1996. 
April 5, 1996
Molitor’s Stolen Base Streak Snapped
39-year-old DH Paul Molitor was caught attempting to swipe third in his first stolen base attempt with the Twins, snapping a streak of 36-straight successful attempts dating back to 1993.
The Twins were trailing the Orioles 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth when Molitor connected for his second double of the game (third hit overall). With one out and Roberto Kelly at the plate, Molly was nabbed attempting to swipe third. It may seem ill-advised to risk being caught stealing when you’re already in scoring position representing the tying run, but Molly had previously scored the Twins’ only run of the game on a Roberto Kelly sac fly.
Molly began his first season in Minnesota with an eight-game hitting streak, over which he went 14-for-33 (.424).
He had 39 hits in the team’s first 25 games, ending the month of April with a .386 average. He only went 0-fer three times all month.
He finished the season batting .341. He had 22 games with 3+ hits and SEVENTY-TWO games with 2+ hits.
April 5, 2000
Come-From-Behind Win
The Twins trailed the Devil Rays 7-1 with two outs in the bottom of the eighth before tying it up with a six-run rally. Then, in the bottom of the ninth, Matt Lawton hit a three-run walk-off homer for a 10-7 Twins win. Remarkably, nine of the last 11 Twins to come to the plate scored. The only out in the last 11 batters was a David Ortiz strikeout pinch hitting for nine-batter Torii Hunter to end the eighth. 
It was the Twins’ second-straight walk-off. They blew a ninth-inning lead the next afternoon to split the four-game series to start the season. 
April 5, 2004
Wuertz and Mauer Make MLB Debuts
1997 Austin High School graduate Michael Wuertz struck out the first two batters he faced in his major league debut, pitching a 1-2-3 sixth in a 7-4 Cubs win on Opening Day in Cincinnati.
2001 Cretin-Derham Hall graduate Joe Mauer also made his major league debut on this date in 2004, going 2-for-3 with two walks and two runs scored, including on Shannon Stewart‘s walk-off home run in the 11th inning giving the Twins a 7-4 Opening Day win over Cleveland.
Mauer also tagged out Cleveland’s Matt Lawton trying to score the go-ahead run in the top of the 10th. Jacque Jones made the throw from right field, hitting the relay man, second baseman Michael Cuddyer.
April 5, 2014
Gardenhire Wins 1,000th
Brian Dozier homeed on the second pitch of the game, leading the Twins to a 7-3 victory in Cleveland for Ron Gardenhire’s 1,000th managerial win. The milestone victory didn’t come without a few new gray hairs, however, as 2001 Stillwater grad Glen Perkins gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth before securing the Kyle Gibson win.
April 5, 2019
Polanco Hits for Cycle
Using Eddie Rosario‘s bat, Jorge Polanco went 5-for-5, hitting for the 11th cycle in Twins history in Philadelphia on this date in 2019.
He finished a double shy of the cycle just four days later.
Fun Fact: Ehire Adrianza used Rosario’s bat to hit a big pinch-hit double when both were playing for Atlanta in the 2021 NLCS.