TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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Cost is always an issue. I like the Kopech idea. He has closing experience and tremendous stuff. "There is much 'upside' with "the Kopech" Weedhopper." But how much would he cost? The Twins wouldn't even pay Jhoan Duran $7 million per year. What would be the cost to sign Kopech?? Otherwise, I really like the idea of Festa closing. His stuff is electric and the Twins using him out of the pen this coming season is one of the more interesting storylines of the season. Will he thrive? Will he crash and burn?
- 56 replies
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- taylor rogers
- cole sands
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Nate, I get that it's hard to come up with an article, especially with the hangover of a protest vacation day on Friday, but Jeffers for Connor Wong? Jeffers has a BBTV of 15.3. Wong has a value of 1.6. It just doesn't work, and with Caratini and Jackson (and Perada and Cardenas waiting in the wings), there is no need for Wong in any possible trade. However, after the Caratini signing, it makes sense to speculate about entertaining trade offers for Ryan Jeffers. Logically, the longest Jeffers could be a Minnesota Twin would be about July 1st of this year. His agent is Scott Boras and signing an extension to remain with the Twins just ain't happening. So the question to answer is this: What trade of Ryan Jeffers could make the Twins a better team in 2026 and beyond? And would sooner be better than later? Here's an idea. Trading Jeffers by himself makes it difficult and the Twins have too many DH types on their roster at this time as it is. The goal is to improve defense, either in the IF or OF and adding some better hitting would be a plus as well. Trade #1: Boston gets Jeffers 15.3 (29 years old this season) and Larnach 3.8 (29 years old this season) 19.1 Total Value and the Twins receive either Kristian Campbell 19.4 value (24 years old this season. Plays 2B and CF) or Franklin Arias 22.1 value (Plays SS or 2B). Campbell played in 67 games with an OPS of .664 for the Red Sox last year. Arias has a .723 OPS over 3 levels, A, A+ and AA in the Red Sox system. Both are good defenders with burgeoning offensive potential. Trade #2: Boston gets Jeffers 15.3 and Matt Wallner (28 years old) 20.5 for a total Value of 35.8. The Twins get Wilyer Abreu who will turn 27 in late June, a 27.4 value and Tristan Casas 26 years old with a value of 7.2. Total value for the Twins 34.6. Abreu has won Gold Gloves in RF the last 2 years for the Red Sox. He hit 15 HR's in 2024 and 22 HR's in 2025 with OPS's of .781 and .786. He would be a massive upgrade over Wallner defensively and is a more consistent hitter. Casas is just 26 and should be fully recovered from a major knee injury suffered last April in a game against the Twins. He's had bad luck injuries the last 2 seasons but slugged 24 HR's with an .856 OPS in 2023. That's more HR's than Wallner (22) or Larnach (17) have ever hit in a single season. And Casas can actually play 1B as opposed to those suggesting that Wallner and Larnach just buy a 1B glove. The Twins get younger. They get MUCH better defensively. And they add a couple of hitters with positive power potential going forward. This would keep Josh Bell at DH the entire 2026 season which would be a good thing. This trade adds a Gold Glove OF next to Buxton and hedges the Twins chances that one of Walker Jenkins or E-Rod don't set the league on fire right away. It also clears a path for Gabe Gonzalez to get his first look in the big leagues as a DH, which is where he probably fits anyway with only occasional games in a corner OF position. This is the detail and work you need to put into posting an article on TD. To simply suggest the Twins give Jeffers away for a vastly inferior player (and a Catcher) is just lazy. Judging by the comments in response to your post, not many on TD want to trade Jeffers anyway, but you at least have to set up a scenario where it compels Twins fans to consider the possibility.
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If the timeline "WHEN" a player could make their MLB debut with the Twins is the primary consideration as to who should be the Twins #2 prospect behind Walker Jenkins, I'm on board with the guys being listed. If the timeline is not the primary consideration, to me it's Tait if he stays at Catcher. Otherwise, my sneaky pick for #2 would be LH SP Dasan Hill. So far, he doesn't have the injury bug of Connor Prielipp and I like his potential. I have to admit I am VERY intrigued with the possibility of him in a future Twins rotation. He kind of reminds me of Jim Merritt/Dave Boswell when they first came up from a youth/potential standpoint.
- 36 replies
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- eduardo tait
- kalen culpepper
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I have to admit my heart rate jumped a couple of beats when I saw this headline ! I agree with every poster on TD who said: "He's not the guy he used to be, but still pretty decent. He's a great signing at $2 million when projections were double or triple that. He could actually close some games for us with his previous experience. We still need a solid veteran RH option" (both Kopech and Dominguez are good suggestions). But Kopech is "projected" to get a contract between 2 years $14 million ($7M per) or as much as 2 years $22M (waaay too expensive at $11M annually). Dominguez is in the 2-years $15M to $20M, so $7.5 to $10M annually. That just doesn't seem remotely within what the Twins would do. But adding one of them is "possible." But if I expect David Festa to have some sort of high leverage role in the Twins BP this year, the addition of Taylor Rogers helps with depth and track record.
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This kind of stuff is always an interesting topic. I have a few disagreements: First, if you're considering "The Franchise" you have to include the Washington Senators and that puts Walter Johnson at the top of the heap. If you're only considering "Minnesota Twins" I can't argue with Johan Santana being #1 and Bert Blyleven #2. Jack Morris had one glorious year and you could argue he's more Detroit Tiger and even Toronto Blue Jay than a Twin. It was a glorious year, but Morris doesn't deserve to be on any "Twins" list. Neither does Brad Radke when the competition would include a Hall of Famer (who went in as a Twin) in Jim Kaat, a CY Young Award winning, World Series Champion in Frank Viola, and a Cy Young Award winning Twins mainstay of the 1960's and early 1970's Jim Perry. Radke won 20 games one time and finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting. The following year, he made his only All Star appearance in route to a 12-14 record and a 4.30 ERA. He gave up 238 hits in 214 innings pitched. Hardly the stuff of legends, much less worthy of an All Star nod. He was awarded that All Star nod based on the previous season. He basically had ONE good year and a lot of middle of the pack years. To me, that doesn't qualify for any "All Time Greatest Twins" list. Nathan is the greatest closer in Twins history. It's not even close. But neither is the comparison of Rick Aguilera to Jeff Reardon. Reardon had a so/so first year with the Twins, but in the playoffs and World Series was stellar in closing out games for the 1987 World Series Championship. He was also tremendous the following year with 42 saves. He then had a poor 3rd year in 1989 and moved on. Aguilera was also stellar out of the pen in 1991 and was integral in helping the Twins win the World Series again in 1991. But Aguilera spent about 10 seasons with the Twins and had a much bigger impact than Reardon. You could make a valid argument that even Al Worthington had a bigger impact on the Twins than Reardon. Reardon has the World Series Championship that Worthington doesn't however. Let the debate begin on this least.
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- johan santana
- bert blyleven
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I agree mluebker, pitchers and catchers talk constantly about what's working and what is not. Pitching coaches have regular sessions with the pitcher going over video of what worked and what didn't work. It's not just last year, it's also the year before. This 6 pitch mix has been suspect for quite some time. That cutter sailed in at 93 mph right down the middle, and frankly, it's a small wonder Vinnie P. only hammered it for a single. In effect, when Zebby throws his cutter to LH hitters he's making each of them into a 1961 version of the Tigers Norm Cash. (look up his stats from his 1961 season, it was his greatest season ever for a solid career). Zebby can hit 98 with his 4 seamer. That 5 mph increase is significant. How could it be taking this long for the Twins and Zebby to realize some "adjustments" need to be made? Normally, I would expect these adjustments to take place "in game." Not after the season. Pete Maki is back. Is Pete aware of this? Of course he is. Why haven't adjustments been made before? I think Matthews has the ability to be a pretty solid SP. That's why I wouldn't have him closing to begin this season. In a sane world, the Twins would have signed a proven closer already. But with Zebby's pitch mix I'd give him 2026 to be a SP. David Festa is the guy I'd like to see start off in the 7th inning, graduate to the 8th inning after a couple months and possibly turn into the Twins closer sometime later in the season. Young SP's like Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Rojas and Prielipp (and Dasan Hill in a year or 2) all have excellent potential. But the rough edges need to be smoothed. The command sharpened. And pitches that are highly ineffective need to be dropped from the arsenal in favor of pitches that have a high degree of success.
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2026 Minnesota Twins International Signings
TopGunn#22 replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They had a sizable amount of money and signed a LOT of guys. I might have preferred seeing them sign about half as many and aim higher for better quality over quantity. I know that at the age many of these kids are signed it's virtually impossible to project what they will grow up to be, but sometimes talent is so obvious you just have to pay a little more to ensure you get it.- 42 replies
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- enmanuel merlo
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With Jackson out of minor league options I think this greatly increases the odds of Ryan Jeffers being traded before opening day. Caratini and Jeffers would have made a decent tandem, but now the Twins can bring back something of good value with a Jeffers trade without losing him for nothing. It's too bad the Realmuto news broke before the Twins signed Caratini. It would have been more interesting with the Phillies bidding on Jeffers as well. Interesting note by chpettit19 about the Twins having the 10th and 12th highest paid catchers in baseball for 2026. I don't think that's the plan going forward, thus making a Jeffers trade all the more likely. All in all, I like this move, especially if it results in a Jeffers trade that brings a worthy return.
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I agree bean5302, and that is assuming that Joe Ryan is healthy and pitching at an All-Star level. If the probable destination is a tear-down and rebuild with young players, why are Twins ownership and FO playing this charade?? I understand the "pressure" of trade deadline deals and maximizing your return, but I also acknowledge the incredible risk of injury to Ryan, Buxton, Pablo and Jeffers that could gut their value. Stranger things have happened in the world of baseball (and sports in general) but I just don't see the Twins competing in a very winnable division. And I don't think the "average" Twins fan is being fooled by this "keeping our core together" pseudo-strategy. Cody didn't have to write an article that states the obvious (but I'm glad he did). The Twins are still going to see very tepid attendance throughout this season. Fans see an acute lack of effort or strategy and just aren't going to show up.
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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The Twins' Pursuit of "Value" is Hurting Their Roster
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This roster as currently constructed is not a winning team. If Falvey doesn't think bullpens aren't important or impactful, I have a question: What did he think of the role the Cleveland BP played in their 2024 Division Title?? -
It's not disdain arby58, it's what the Twins have done with the Bell signing and what they have coming up in the pipeline very soon (Walker Jenkins, E-Rod, Gabriel Gonzalez). Wallner would have been an excellent option for DH. But they signed Bell who shouldn't play more than 10 games at 1B (making Bell a switch hitting, full time DH). Almost every pitcher on the Twins had a better ERA when compared with FIP. Larnach and Wallner are not good OF. They have poor range, so many balls that should be caught fall in. Wallner is a star in OPS, but OPS tends to overrate guys like him who crush the ball when they hit it, but whiff far too often. A guy who projects to hit fewer HR's but make consistent contact and still supply power like Gabe Gonzalez is a better DH option (to me) than matt Wallner. With Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe coming soon, I'd like to capitalize on a team desperate for power (say the White Sox) and make a trade that could bring back a Teel or Quero to be our #1 catcher post Ryan Jeffers. I think Wallner HAS talent. But I think the Twins should use that allure of 30 HR power to fill a void that is sure to come once Jeffers is gone and Tait isn't ready.
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That's a good point DJL44, and I probably wouldn't have used the money they did to sign Josh Bell. That said, they have made their bed and in 2026 there is no realistic benefit to having Larnach, Wallner, Ober and even Jeffers on this roster. The Twins need to get something for Jeffers before he walks in FA. With Scott Boras as his agent, he's not signing an extension. The Twins FO knew this situation long ago, yet have failed to address it. Ober should not be blocking the young SP's. He still has value and it should be leveraged to improve the team in other areas. With young OF's like Jenkins, E-Rod and Gonzalez knocking on the door it's time to get more athletic in the OF and improve the defense. After this season, Gonzalez could emerge as the primary DH who fills in at corner OF occasionally.
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GREAT article Cody. I have been a big believer in Matthews since he first came up. He's got great stuff. He's just got to locate it more consistently and rely a little less on his fastball. It's interesting, in the above video he strikes out a guy with a 98 mph fastball low in the zone and with a slider at 91 mph with great movement. If his slider sits 88-91 with movement like that it would be hard for a RH hitter and even some LH hitters if it busts them inside on the hands that hard. It seems like every pitcher in the Twins rotation had a better ERA with FIP than what their actual ERA was. This goes directly to a team that provides sub par defense at every position other than CF. This team MUST move away from Larnach and Wallner in the corner OF positions and put guys out there that have better range. The infield needs to take a massive step forward. Lewis is looking better at 3B, but Lee lacks range and we're looking so/so at 1B. Keaschall might get a bit better if his arm continues to improve after TJ, but he's not being described as a future Gold Glove candidate. I'll continue to say that there is no room in the Twins rotation for Baily Ober. Ryan, Lopez and SWR should be in there. Matthews, Abel and Bradley should be competing for the final 2 spots. Ober should not be blocking any of these young pitchers. Especially when he still has a BBTV of 21.0 With Josh Bell becoming the primary DH there is no room for the lumbering Wallner (20.5) on this roster. Take that 41.5 value, and maybe the 15.3 from Jeffers (56.8 total value) and make a trade for a bona fide catcher and other talent whether that would be BP, OF or IF talent to provide better athleticism in the field. If there is one area that could give the Twins a hint of a chance of competing in the A.L. Central it is the rotation. If these young pitchers take a step forward this year and their defense helps them instead of hurts them, the Twins would be competitive on a game by game basis provided the BP gets one or two veteran arms and the offense gets a little better.
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I have noticed this as well arby58. With all those young pitchers stacked up behind Ober, Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, and you can throw Prielipp and Festa in there as well even if they might be in the BP, the Twins should be opening opportunities for THEM to be a part of the rotation behind Lopez and Ryan. With a value of 21.0 Ober COULD bring back something of substance. Here's a list of players that have a similar "value" to Ober: Jordan Lawler (SS/2B) 20.6. Edgar Quero (C) 17.8. Kyle Teel (C) 20.7. Tristan Casas (1B) 18.1. Franklin Arias (SS) 22.1. Kristian Campbell (2B/CF) 19.4. Heliot Ramos (OF) 16.0. Jared Jones (SP) 14.9. Jefferson Quero (C) 20.8. Colt Cowser (OF) 26.1. Colby Mayo (1B/3B) 18.1. Brandon Sproat (SP) 22.5. Jonah Tong (SP) 26.1. I'm not suggesting any of these players be traded straight up for Ober. But I'd rather see the young pitchers compete for that #3 spot in the rotation and get something of value back for Ober. If Ober could be moved for a young, Major league Catcher, the Twins would be able to trade Jeffers (15.3) to a team in need of catching and get something else of value back before Jeffers walks in FA. Looking at some of the young SP's, you have Jared Jones coming off of Tommy John surgery who has a lower value (14.9) but a higher ceiling. Why would the Pirates make this trade? For the same reason the Mets might consider Tong (26.1) or Sproat (22.5)...Ober is a veteran with a track record and the Mets are expected to compete for the division and the Pirates WANT to be more than a last place team with Paul Skenes. No matter what the "potential" for a young SP, a solid, veteran #3 SP in a rotation has VALUE.
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I don't think there's there's anybody on Twins Daily who doesn't feel Marek Houston needs to show consistent improvement with his bat. He will never be a power hitter, but if he's able to make contact and have a reasonable OBP, with a glove like that, he WILL be a big league ballplayer some day. The Orioles of the 60's and 70's won a lot of ballgames with guys like Luis Aparicio and Mark Belanger playing SS. Belanger might be a good comp for Houston. Aside from Walker Jenkins, my favorite Twins prospect is Dasan Hill. I'm very impressed with what I've seen of him, albeit in a very limited sample size. I see him as a future #1 or #2 for the Twins. And while our BP was burned to the ground, and not much has been done to resurrect it, the farm system is well stocked with interesting prospects. It doesn't hurt to have the #3 overall pick in next year's draft. I'll agree with those who have suggested the Twins end up with the High School SS Emerson as our #3 overall pick.
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- marek houston
- charlee soto
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Thank You Cody for putting this out there !! As a Twins fan, watching the bullpen candidates blow away to other teams on a day by day, week by week basis it's frustrating. There have been some "diamond in the rough" sort of guys that the Twins let get away, but you've just listed 3 guys who, while they have some concerns, are each very capable. Phillips is the guy who absolutely just jumps out. He was dominant in 2022 & 2023. Had a serviceable but "down" season by his previous standards in 2024 and then lost nearly all of 2025 to TJ. He has been a CLOSER. I think it would be well worth the gamble to give him a 2-year deal to allow him to rehab and come back. The Dodgers likely won't "wait" for him. They've got a 3rd consecutive World Series to win after all. If I had to choose one of the other two it would be Dominguez. He could begin the season as the closer while the Twins challenge Festa with some 7th and 8th inning work. If Festa flourishes in the BP you've got a good competition to determine who closes games. Throw someone like Matthews or Prielipp into the conversation (if they aren't in the mix for the rotation) and you've got the potential for a BP that can be a plus rather than a minus. But my experience with the current Twins ownership and FO is that they will continue to "study the issue" until suddenly there is no one left to dance with. Maybe the new minority partners will cause some aggressive action that I'm not accustomed to. That would be a pleasant surprise.
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The jump for Gabe Gonzalez last year was exciting. If he has a solid spring training and gets off to a good start at St. Paul, he could crack the Twins lineup faster than any of us expected a year ago. I tend to forget that Rosario is just 23 years old. He finished the year at AA so I'm not sure if the plan is to leave him there to begin 2026 or promote him to St. Paul to start the year. I can see why nobody picked him up in the Rule 5 draft. He's 23 and hasn't risen above AA. But I'm glad he's back in our system and interested to see how he does once he's at St. Paul. While Gonzalez is the clear #1 for interest and excitement, I'm really intrigued with Fedko, and I'm not sure why it appears the Twins are NOT. Yes, he's 25 years old, but his apparent defensive flexibility (playing all 3 OF positions and 1B) as well as the numbers he put up at AAA St. Paul got MY attention. For a team craving some kind of RH hitting (in fact, ANY kind of consistent hitting) in a corner OF position or 1B is puzzling to me. He must have huge holes in his swing, and while he plays 4 positions, maybe he's just sub-par at each of them. But it will be really interesting to me to see what the Twins do if Fedko continues to punish the baseball at St. Paul and our offense continues to fizzle. Olivar is interesting primarily if he can stick at Catcher. He's been a solid hitter, not a great hitter in the minors. If his defense at Catcher improves to begin the 2026 minor league season and he earns a promotion to AAA, he may make a deadline trade of Jeffers possible.
- 55 replies
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- gabriel gonzalez
- kalai rosario
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Wallner as DH would have worked had they not signed Bell. Unfortunately, now that Bell is on the roster the Twins should really look to move him for a SS prospect like Jordan Lawler or a young catcher like Edgar Quero. Either of those young players would have a much bigger impact on Twins success in 2026 than Wallner. The Twins also need better OF defense, and Wallner doesn't help there either.
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I'd be actively looking to trade Larnach AND Wallner. The addition of Bell means he's going to play DH...a LOT. The Twins need to bring in the younger wave of OF soon. Roden in RF would be a big step up from Wallner defensively. Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall in LF would be a big step up from Larnach. There should still be trades involving Ober, Wallner, Larnach and possibly even Jeffers if a trade brings back someone like Edgar Quero (a young Catcher who the White Sox are reportedly listening to offers for). A power bat like Wallner would get the Twins Quero and open up a trade of Jeffers. Guys like Ryan, Buxton and Lopez being kept is O.K. as long as the Twins admit they have more moves to make and make them. Putting a better defensive team on the field should be a goal. Until they replace the poor fielding, LH hitting corner OF they have, that won't happen. Even Buxton can't cover for the acute lack of range Larnach and Wallner have. With Bell, neither of these guys has a place on the 2026 Twins roster.
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5 Ways to Remember the Twins’ 2025 Farm System
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Grading farm systems is about as tough a project as I can think of. There's so much "projection" that mistakes, sometimes BIG mistakes are built into the system. On the surface it would seem easy...watch this guy run, he's FAST. This kid really hits the ball HARD. This kid has a great fastball etc...but this is why the system created levels for players to continually prove their worth. It's better to have a highly thought of farm system than not, but how often has an entire infield made it to the majors and played a long time together (Garvey, Lopes, Russell and Cey). How about the Alou brothers with the Giants back in the 60's? And none of the Alou brothers stayed with the Giants and all enjoyed good success AWAY from the Giants. And it's always hard to compare "Prospect Value" with actual, productive, track record worth "Major League Value." With Prospect Value" a short stint of success can skew it even further. The late season success of Nolan McLean has him becoming the next Tom Seaver. Just like Francisco Liriano gave Twins fans hope for a 2nd Johan Santana, Jacob Misiorowski gives Brewers fans hope of another Corbin Burnes, Liriano never really came close to his 2006 debut and couldn't stay healthy much of the time. What will McLean or Misiorowski turn out to be? It really is the ultimate crapshoot. Even guys with decent track records in the major leagues struggle from season to season, so it's really hard to have confidence predicting how Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez will debut, much less what a career could hold. Still, I'd rather HAVE a guy like McLean, Misiorowski, or Jenkins than NOT have them. MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone on TD !! Let us all look forward to a Happy and Healthy New Year in 2026.- 28 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
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Should the Twins Deal from Their Rotation Depth?
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have been on the same page as tony&rodney in this debate. Yes, we do have some depth from the rotational side, but we so gutted our BP that some of that depth (Festa, Prielipp, Raya) needs to be seriously considered for important BP roles. Here is a list of these pitchers and a ballpark trade value based on BBTV: Abel 10.1 Has shown flashes. Needs better command. Morris 4.1 I agree he's shown little to be even listed. Throw in guy in a larger trade at best. Taj Bradley 43.1 Griffin Jax had a value of about 24-26 at the time of the trade. Ober 21.0 While his velocity is down, his value for trade purposes is still solid. Matthews 25.3 Love his stuff, but like Abel and Bradley better command is needed. Festa 12.2 His raw stuff is the equal of Abel, Matthews and Bradley. Needs to spend 2026 in the BP. Lopez 16.5 Value is down due to injury marred 2025. I suspect he would bring far more value back. Connor Prielipp 15.6 Decent value. Like Festa needs a season in the BP to stay healthy. A healthy, effective season out of the BP would build value for Prielipp and Festa. Both are STILL rotation worthy. Dasan Hill 13.6 I list this guy because he's one of my favorite prospects. Drafted in 2024 his ETA is 2028. Marco Raya 4.2 His inability to consistently throw 3-4 innings limits his value and makes BP his ceiling. I also hold the view that we are a terrible fielding team that can't make consistent contact. We can hope Jenkins, Culpepper, E-Rod, Marek Houston and others make the jump and succeed, but what are the odds the Twins go 4 for 4? A strategic trade of an asset like Ober, who still should have value to teams looking to fill out a rotation should at least be explored. I liked what I saw from SWR down the stretch last season and as a guy who was pushing to trade him OFTEN, I wouldn't deal him now. Ober should be moved to open opportunities for Bradley, Abel and Matthews. I already consider SWR IN the rotation. It's interesting to see the value we got back in the Jax for Bradley trade. Taj Bradley is allegedly our 2nd most valuable SP behind only Joe Ryan. Even if the season goes off the rails by June 1st (which I think is more likely than the Twins being 2 games behind the Tigers in 2nd place) I still think there is a high probability that Ryan gets traded. I would expect that trade to return at least one position player and a young replacement SP/another position player. If Lopez is pitching well and we're still floundering in 4th place, his value will go from 16.5 to somewhere around 25-35 and some nice, young talent can come back in that deal. The trade partners at the top of the list would remain the Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, Yankees and Cubs. There could be rotation injuries that spur need well before the trade deadline. Of course, the Twins could be in last place with injuries to Ryan, Lopez and Ober and left holding the bag for a much harder rebuild after the 2026 housecleaning. -
I don't think Tom Pohlad would have said what he did unless there was steel behind it. I think nicksaviking's take really makes a lot of sense. Falvey's job for 2026 was secured the day the season ended. However, we haven't really been given (as fans) any indication of specific benchmarks or goals for the 2026 season. How will Tom Pohlad define success? The say they want to compete in 2026, but nothing bold has been done to make that realistic. (to this point of the off-season). Unless you want to allow the idea Tom Pohlad stated he was against. That being, running it back with essentially the same core: Ryan, Lopez and Ober in the rotation and a lineup built around Buxton, Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner and Larnach. So that brings us back to the primary question. How will Tom Pohlad define success or the lack of success in 2026? Won-Loss record? Attendance? The Business Model? Growth by young players? Bounce Back seasons from veterans? A Playoff Appearance? Do we have to win a playoff game? Or even a playoff series? I doubt we will ever get any kind of idea how the Twins will determine success or failure. As a result, and especially with the high probability that there will be some kind of work stoppage for the 2027 season, if things go particularly poorly in 2026, I could envision a complete housecleaning, starting with the architect of how we got to this point, Derek Falvey. If THAT domino falls then I could envision Shelton being let go and possibly the entire coaching staff. Honestly, it would be a raw deal for Shelton, but if the Twins clean house whoever takes over as POBO may burn it all down and start over. That would trigger the major rebuild that probably should be taking place for 2026. But if things don't go horribly bad in 2026, if some but not all of their internal goals or benchmarks are achieved, I just don't have any kind of idea or sense where that leaves the Twins for 2027 going forward.
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The Ober for Lawler trade keeps getting suggested on here because Lawler has a BBTV of 20.6 and Ober 21.0. Lawler is stuck behind Ketel Marte at 2B and Geraldo Perdomo at SS. He's been rumored to be traded for quite some time now. The Twins interest would be in seeing him compete for SS with Lee and 2B with Keaschall (who could be moved to LF). Lawler has hit at AAA but struggled in a couple of looks in the majors. He's not a "Top 30 Prospect" but he does regularly show up in Top 100 lists. Here's how the D-Backs themselves ranked their prospects at the end of the 2025 season: 1. Ryan Waldschmidt OF. 2. Slade Caldwell OF. 3. Kayson Cunningham SS. 4. Demetrio Crisantes Infield. 5. Druw Jones OF. 6. Jordan Lawler SS. 7. Daniel Eagen RHP. 8. Yordin Chalas RHP. 9. Tommy Troy INF/OF 10. Mitch Bratt LHP. Source: MLB.com and Prospects Live. As I always qualify: BBTV is not the be all, end all. But if 2 players are valued THAT close it's not as unlikely as you think. The D-Backs have massive needs in their rotation. 37 year old Merrill Kelly was just re-signed and Zac Gallen is a Free Agent. The D-Backs may, or may not be interested in Ober, but he fits as a veteran presence at #3-#5 in their rotation.
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I don't usually disagree with you bean5302, but I will in this instance. Larnach hit 17 HR's last year. His high had been 15 in 2024. Clemens hit 19 HR's last year. His previous high was FIVE. Clemens could very well struggle to hit 10 this year and Larnach will be playing for somebody else. Bell's career high for HR's was 37. Throw that out as an outlier. His last 2 seasons he's hit 22 and 19. In 2024 Vientos hit 27 and last year matched Larnach's career high of 17. It is highly unlikely that Larnach and Clemens would come close to Bell and Vientos in HR's. My preferred trade is Ober for Jordan Lawler. My absolute WISH trade is Ober for White Sox Catcher Edgar Quero. (Word is the White Sox are listening to offers. If I could get Quero for Ober or SWR, I'd deal Ryan Jeffers before losing him to FA in 2027). I could see accepting an Ober for Vientos trade, if Vientos played 1B and Bell DH'd. But it would be at least 3rd on my list of what I'd like to see in a trade for Ober, and I could probably find a few others that would be better than Vientos.

