markos

If I'm correctly remembering their explanations of the minor league framing stats, they are just approximations based on rates of ball-strike calls. It correlates pretty well when using big league data (where one can compare to the actual PitchFX results) but it is unclear exactly how well it extends to minor league results. It probably points in the right direction, but the actual value is a little suspect. Also, the FRAA is the amount a player is "above-average", but I'm not sure what is the "average" for the minor league stats. It doesn't necessarily mean much for a AAA catcher to be "above-average" if the average AAA catcher is way worse than the average MLB catcher. For example, JR Murphy has been among the best defensive catchers in the minors the past four seasons, averaging almost 20 FRAA per season when in the minors (as a comparison, that is better than Russell Martin during the same time-span). However, Murphy's 6000+ framing chances in the big-leagues (basically one full season) indicate that he is league-average - total FRAA of -0.6.

I'm not advocating this, but I think the hope is that he would be healthy and effective, especially if he primarily hits against lefties, and in a part-time role has ~250-300 PAs by the end of July. Then at the trade deadline he would fetch a decent prospect, much like Aaron Hill and Steve Pearce did this past year. Of course, having Vargas on the roster without options complicates things...

Fangraphs uses a combination of Steamer and ZIPS, and they do their own playing time projections as well.

I'm not sure it is completely obvious how the positional filters work. For example, for individuals, if you filter by DH, does that include all hitters that had at least 1 at bat as a DH? Or is there a certain qualification level (min PA? games?)? Or maybe majority PAs or games at DH? And does it just show their stats as DH, or include their full-season stats across all positions? At the team level, how are the above decisions aggregated together? Example: AL teams, 2011-2016, DH filter, sorted by wRC+: Twins are #6 with 111 wRC+ http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d Click on 'Twins' in the list, and you get this list of players: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0 AL teams, 2011-2016, Split - DH, sorted by wRC+: Twins are #8 with 102 wRC+ http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=44&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d Click on 'Twins' in the list, and you get a very different list: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=44&season1=2011&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0 I think the latter list (Split - DH) is the correct list for this discussion. In general, I ignore the filter position options and only use the Split - <position> dropdown box when trying to look at performance at a single position. It's not that I don't trust the Fangraphs data; I just don't know the nuances of their filtering algorithm and so I'm never exactly sure what it is displaying.

Random thought: I wonder if a Santana-for-Holland+Profar trade makes sense for both clubs.

That makes sense to me. A lot depends on the direction the team goes. As you said, if they decide on a tear down and Santana is traded, they still need innings. Holland is a pretty decent lottery ticket. A decent 3-4 months and they could easily get more value back at the deadline. But if they decide to try to get better this year, I don't think he makes as much sense.

The problem with that line of thinking is that there are generally a ton of players available at 1B or DH that can provide 80%-90% of the offensive value as Dozier. Guys like Napoli, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Matt Joyce, Steve Pierce, etc are available on affordable 1-year deals and are capable of 110-120 wRC+ - maybe more in a platoon. Sure, Dozier probably projects slightly better than them. But if I was a team with a hole at 1B, I'm trying to fill it with one of those guys rather than trading away a bunch of top prospects for the marginal improvement Dozier would provide.

Maybe? Somehow the Cardinals ended up with 4 WAR at 2B last year, at least according to Fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=37&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 I think the Cardinals are in a fairly large group of contenders that have a more-or-less average incumbent at 2B, and so would require some additional roster moves to make it work. Includes Blue Jays, Orioles, Giants, Pirates, maybe Yankees and Royals as well. They are kind of in a different class than teams like the Mets, Dodgers and Angels who will absolutely need to fill the position.

The Cardinals have several infielders under contract besides Wong that they played at 2B: Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko. Dozier is better than Peralta and Gyorko, but they still need to move them. The Cardinals aren't the type of team that eats bad contracts. That is unfortunate because they are the one team that actually has the young pitching (and prospects) that would match up well with the Twins. It might require a three-team trade.

I would pull the trigger on #1 for sure, but for the record I don't think the Dodgers would give up both. Maybe one or the other. #3 and #4 need more support. I'm a firm believer in building a pitching staff through depth, and any Dozier deal needs at least two arms. #5 is a no. #2 is a decent start. I think adding one of the Yankee's high-end pitching prospects gets this a lot closer. Maybe Severino, Sheffield and Montgomery.

I completely agree with this assessment. Further, I think that if the Twins want to target young major-league pitching for Dozier, teams will be much more willing to part with it if Santana is included as a replacement. Mets are a good example. They are probably more likely to give up a guy like Matz if Santana is included as a partial replacement in their rotation.

If I'm the Twins FO, I'm call the Royals and Mets as well.

I don't think a Dozier/Santana combo makes much sense for the Dodgers, but I do think it makes a lot of sense for other teams, especially if the goal is to get MLB-ready pitching back.

I don't think this makes much sense for the Dodgers. Their financial resources allow them to get average players (like Santana) almost at will in FA, so I don't see how a guy like Santana adds much to any trade. Or Felix for that matter. What they need are All-Star level players and elite prospects. Now that isn't necessarily the case for other teams, but the Dodgers are unique in that regard.

These are both very legitimate concerns. I think that Dozier (with his combination of health/perofmance/contract) has similar value to the five guys I listed. But that definitely isn't the consensus. If Dozier isn't part of this top tier, do you have any trade example for second tier players? I haven't looked closely. Off the top of my head I might include Neil Walker and Howie Kendrick. Others? Regarding waiting until the deadline, I'm not sure the reward outweighs the risks: Dozier could regress or get injured, the pool of buyers will potentially be smaller, and in general team will be receiving only 66% of team control than they would get if they traded for him right now.

Looking at all these trades, I think the framework for any Dozier deal should be: 1) A headline piece: elite prospect (like Brinson or Mejia) or young, average regular with upside (like Wheeler, Miller, Lawrie) 2) A support piece: another top-100 prospect, probably in the 50-100 range. 3) A depth piece: back of rotation, bullpen, utility infielder or 4th-outfield type. Either in majors or high-minors.

I thought it would be useful to look at recent trades to attempt to get a sense for the expected return in a potential Dozier trade. I specifically looked at trades involving position players who had at least one team-friendly season of control remaining. Unfortunately, there isn't an exact mirror to the Dozier situation, but hopefully these past trades (or attempted trades) will provide a decent outline. Also, there is a strong possibility that I'm missing some trades. In reverse-chronological order: Jonathan Lucroy to Rangers – Trade Deadline 2016 > Jonathan Lucroy (2016-2017) > Jeremy Jeffress (2016-2019) ------------------------------------------------------------- < Lewis Brinson (top 20 CF prospect) < Luis Ortiz (top 50-75 RHSP prospect) < Ryan Cordell (24yo OF @ AA) Jonathan Lucroy to Indians (aborted) – Trade Deadline 2016 > Jonathan Lucroy (2016-2017) ------------------------------------------------------------- < Francisco Mejia (top 50-75 C prospect, potentially much higher now. 20yo. might be best C prospect) < Yu-Cheng Chang (20yo SS @ A+) < Greg Allen (23yo CF @ A+) < Shawn Armstrong (26yo RHRP @ AAA) Carlos Gomez to Astros – Trade Deadline 2015 > Carlos Gomez (2015-2016) > Mike Fiers (2015-2019) ------------------------------------------------------------- < Josh Hader (top 100 LHSP prospect. 21yo @ AA) < Brett Phillips (top 50-75 CF. 21yo @ AA) < Domingo Santana (22yo corner OF. 2016-2021) < Adrian Houser (22yo RHSP @ AA) Carlos Gomez to Mets (aborted) – Trade Deadline 2015 > Carlos Gomez ------------------------------------------------------------- < Zack Wheeler (25yo RHSP. 2016-2019. TJ-surgery) < Wilmer Flores (23yo SS. 2016-2019) Jason Heyward to Cardinals – Pre-2015 > Jason Heyward (2015) > Jordan Walden (2015-2017) ------------------------------------------------------------- < Shelby Miller (24yo RHSP. 2015-2018) < Tyrell Jenkins (21yo RHSP @ A+) Josh Donaldson to Blue Jays – Pre-2015 > Josh Donaldson (2015-2018) ------------------------------------------------------------- < Brett Lawrie (25yo 3B. 2015-2017) < Franklin Barreto (top 75-85 prospect. 19yo SS @ A-) < Sean Nolin (24yo LHSP @ AAA) < Kendall Graveman (23yo RHSP @ AAA) Justin Upton to Padres – Pre-2015 > Justin Upton (2015) > Aaron Northcraft (24yo RHRP) ------------------------------------------------------------- < Max Fried (20yo LHSP. TJ-recovery. top-50 prospect pre-injury) < Dustin Peterson (20yo LF @ A) < Jace Peterson (24yo 2B. 2015-2020) < Mallex Smith (21yo CF @ A+)

I don't disagree that the Twins can't exactly mimic the Cubs when it comes to building a pitching rotation. But almost every good rotation has pitchers that are still under team control that were acquired from other organizations. The majority of Cleveland's rotation are all guys acquired from other organizations: Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer. The Mets have Thor and Wheeler. The Nats have Roark and Gonzales. The Red Sox have Pomeranz and Rodriguez. Given that they aren't going to go out and sign a Price/Lester/Cueto/Scherzer, they will almost assuredly need to successfully identify, acquire and develop pitchers that are currently in other organizations. Also, I do think that if the Twins win 97 games with a super-young roster, there will be free agents like Lackey interested in coming to Minnesota.

I think it is a little light, but a lot depends on your projection for Dozier going forward. If you think he continues to be a 5+ WAR player for the next two seasons, it is probably light.

As a rebuttal, I might ask you how do you ever create a winning team by trading 3-WAR position players for 2-WAR pitchers. It's not passing out of fear - it's trying to make an informed decision based on the risk/reward of different player profiles. Personally, I think developing pitching is all about casting a broad as net as possible rather than focusing on one or two singular talents. In the case of the top of the draft, I think the evidence shows that there is traditionally much better luck with hitters than pitchers. And selecting a really good position player with the top pick is a great way to free up a lot of resources to focus on pitching via other avenues (other draft picks, trades acquisitions, free agency, international markets). Lots of teams (ex. Cleveland) have put together excellent pitching staffs without using top picks. While there isn't a definitive study that I'm aware of, the general consensus from a wide range of research is that pitchers are riskier and have lower expected value at an equivalent pick/ranking. For example, see http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/ http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ The first article, looking at first round picks, showed that pitchers (college and high school) end up producing roughly 50% less value than position players: College hitters– 1.336 WAR/year High School hitters– 1.204 WAR/year College pitchers– .649 WAR/year High School pitchers– .878 WAR/year The second article focuses on prospect lists rather than draft picks, but even with the additional year(s) of knowledge of the players' performance in pro-ball, the results show that equivalently ranked pitchers produce less WAR in total and are busts more often. I think there are a lot of limitations with all of the draft analysis over the past few years for a number of reasons, so please don't assume that I'm taking these numbers as gospel truth. But I do think there is enough evidence that SOME discount needs to be applied when trying to calculate the future value of pitchers. The 1-1 pick is super valuable - expected value of 15-20 WAR during pre-free agency seasons - so applying even a small discount (say 20%) to that, and you end up losing 5 WAR by picking a pitcher over an equivalently talented hitter. That's a lot of value - by some measures that's equivalent to a pick in the 10-15 range, or trading a 3-WAR player for a 2-WAR player. But if one thinks that Greene (or any other pitcher) is significantly better than any other position player, then by all means take him.

Something to think about with regard to high school pitchers: How often does the consensus best high school arm going into the draft actually turn into the best pitcher? For some examples: 2007: Best HS arm (according to BA) was Rick Porcello, who was #2 pitcher overall after David Price. 4th best HS pitcher (9th best pitcher overall, and 6th pitcher taken) was Madison Bumgarner. 2010: Best HS arm was Jameson Taillon, who was considered neck-and-neck with Manny Machado for #2 prospect behind Bryce Harper. At pick #34 and #38 the Blue Jays draft Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard. 2011: Best HS arm was Dylan Bundy (and best overall pitcher according to BA) in loaded 2011 class. 5th best HS pitcher (12th best pitcher, 20th best overall, 7th pitcher taken overall) was Jose Fernandez. I'm not say that the Twins should avoid Greene at all costs. If it turns out that he is clearly the best player in a lackluster class, then by all means pick him. But if there is serious doubt about the best player, I think the better strategy is to take the position player 1-1 and load up on high-upside arms in the later picks.

FWIW, they had a 71-91 baseruns record this year.

Me too, but unfortunately it's not unlikely if Dozier and Santana are traded.

Does anyone know how Greene stacks up against other top HS pitchers of the past few years? Guys like Giolito, Bundy, and Taillon.

There are a few. It is hard to go back and compare against different eras, but guys like Jake Westbrook, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark all found success with below-average minor league strikeout rates. Sonny Gray (in his limited minor league career) also struggled. So it definitely isn't a death sentence, especially since it sounds like his stuff is more or less still intact from high school. I've been very low on Stewart for a years now, but I have to admit that there were some encouraging signs this year. First and foremost, he stayed healthy and threw almost 150 innings. Considering that so much of the battle for HS pitchers is staying healthy, this is an encouraging sign. Second, he did show improvement when repeating A+. Third, he continued to limit homers and get ground balls in AA. I wasn't sure how much of that was a product of the suppressed offensive environment in the Florida State League, so it was nice to see that continue at AA. All in all, I think signs are now stronger that he will contribute at some level in the big leagues. His ceiling is still low - certainly lower than you would expect with a #4 pick.