markos

I agree with this. The Twins have had a certain amount of luck in grinding out value from position prospects, but it certainly seems very unlikely right now that anyone currently in the Twins organization will be an above-average major league catcher in the near future. I'm not sure how to fix that, but I'm not sure that the draft is the right avenue to address the problem. It seems like they may need to try to acquire someone from outside the organization, either via trade or free agency. As an aside, the catcher position is evolving (more focused on pitch-framing and offense), and I'm not sure how quickly the Twins will recognize the value of the non-traditional catcher skills.

I think this is nothing but great news for the Twins. With no 2nd-round pick this year, there is absolutely no reason for them to try to play games with the #6 pick. The just need to rank their board based on talent, select whomever drops, sign him, and that's it. The more the top teams try to plays games by saving money on lessor players, the better off the Twins will be.

It sounds like Carlos Correa is getting promoted to AAA soon - next week or so.

I think Mike is right. The way I understand it is that if they call him up in September (or at any point in 2015), his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until late in the 2021 season, at which point he will become a free agent after that season. However, if they hold off in calling him up until next April 14th (or so), then his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until early in the 2022 season. So I agree with Mike's logic - it makes no sense (from an asset management standpoint) to exchange 30-35 games this September when he will be a 21-year-old rookie for the entire 2022 season when he will be a 28 and in the prime of his career. Or am I misunderstanding how the system works as well?

We've passed the threshold for this season, but I think discussion was more about waiting until next season. If Buxton is called up anytime between now and next April 14th (or so) he will under team control until after the 2021 season. However, if he is kept in the minors until after next April 14th (or so), he will be under team control until 2022. So as this season keeps moving along, it makes less and less sense to call him up (from the standpoint of maximizing team control). At a certain point (maybe August?) I'm not certain it makes sense to call him up to finish out the season in the majors.

One thing I noticed between the past two seasons is that last year Vargas was very, very good at making contact on pitches in the zone (~88% - close to Mauer-esque), but this season has been pretty terrible (~78% - close to Arcia-esque). I wonder if the mechanical/timing changes have caused him to be susceptible to certain pitches within the zone.

I am very skeptical that Plouffe would accept a 4-year, $30M offer. He isn't a poor pre-arb player. He's earned almost $10M in his career already. That's not quite set-for-life money, but its not a pittance, and therefore I don't think he has a dire need to exchange future earnings for security. The arbitration process basically ensures that he is locked in for at least $10M over the next two years unless he is released, and most likely he will get raises that will move him into the $15M-$20M range. If I was advising Plouffe, I would tell him to either sign a market-rate extension (at least 4 year, $40M+) with the Twins or get to free agency as quickly as possible. From the Twins perspective, I don't see the need for an extension at that price. There may be some need for him after the 2017 season, but in that case he should be good enough to warrant a qualifying offer.

Looking at 2000-2009, there were 20 HS pitchers taken in the top-10 picks: 3 top-of-the-rotation starters (Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke) 6 mid-to-back-of-rotation starters (Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Homer Bailey, Jarrod Parker, Zack Wheeler, Justin Turner). 11 did make the majors as a starter I'd say that your 10%-20% guess is pretty accurate. I'm pretty risk-adverse in general, so I'm not enthralled by the thought of drafting Aiken. As many have already pointed out, that TJ article doesn't address the specific recovery rates of pitchers of Aiken's age and caliber. However, the risk isn't zero. And for me, the biggest risk isn't that he will never pitch again. I'm more concerned that his stuff won't come all the way back. Is Aiken worth it if he only tops out at 93 instead of the 95+ pre-surgery? Or what if his control is shakier after surgery? There are several examples of really great pitchers who didn't completely recover. Liriano was never quite the same after surgery. Dylan Bundy is 2+ years removed from his surgery and his velocity still isn't back. Even Strasburg's velocity didn't come all the way back to what he showed his rookie year.

I actually like that tradeoff. On a 5-year deal, the pitcher gets an early opt-out clause if he avoids TJ surgery during the first 4 years. Team gets a veteran minimum 6th year option if he does get TJ during the 5 years. Seems fairly reasonable to both sides.

I disagree with this, though I have a fairly broad definition of "ace potential". My list of college pitchers with "Ace potential" includes: Tate Funkhouser Matuella Fulmer Ponce Buehler This is my reasoning. Other than a small handful of elite amateur pitchers (Strasburg, Prior, Price), the vast majority of Aces are developed over time in the minors and majors. So for me, having "ace potential" is more about having the raw tools needed, and questions about command, execution, durability, etc can be answered in the minor (and major) leagues. Off the top of my head, I consider the following tools that form the basis of an potential Ace: * maintain good velocity (93+) into the late innings * swing-and-miss breaking ball * ability to limit platoon splits * decent control Beyond that, the ultimate ceiling of a pitcher depends a lot on how exactly those skills refine, and (just as importantly) how well the pitcher stays healthy. Will a pitcher's command take the necessary steps forward to allow his stuff to play up? Will he stay healthy and durable? Will a new changeup grip eliminate a weakness against lefties? Those kind of questions are very, very hard to project, and are often only answerable after years of development. That's why one ends up having draft classes where Chris Sale is the 7th pitcher drafted or Max Scherzer is the 8th. Certainly some pitchers have few questions than others. But I'm not certain that the difference between best bet (say a perfectly healthy Aiken) and a good bet (say Tate) is incredibly meaningful given the huge uncertainty. And I don't think it is meaningful enough to say that one pitcher has "Ace potential" while another doesn't. It seems entirely possible to me that six years from now everyone will be wondering how Cy Young award winning Cody Ponce ended up falling to the #15 pick. Sorry for the long-winded explanation.

I'm not sure that I'm know enough to label this play as "very impressive." Lots of major-league shortstops have strong arms and quick releases. I can't really determine from the video whether or not Santana's velocity and release are significantly better (or worse) than his peers'. Is this a play that only 5 shortstops could make? Or 25? If it is the latter, then it isn't "very impressive" so much as routine, and a play that needs to be made to order for Santana to not lose value relative to his peers. Hopefully the Statcast data will help answer this question.

Alex Meyer

Where did you get your data from? I used Baseball Savant and searched for pitches in the 1-9 zones. From April through June, it was at 38%, and then from July through September it was at 41%. Of course, defining what is 'in-zone' or not is definitely open to interpretation.

But he didn't quite raise it enough to offset the loss in power. And it appears that a large part in the rise in OBP was due to pitchers throwing fewer strikes. It will be interesting to see how this interplay between Dozier and pitchers works out this year. Last year it was basically: 1) Dozier hits a bunch of home runs 2) Pitchers stop throwing strikes 3) Dozier stops hitting home runs, but walks more. It will be interesting to see if pitchers start throwing more strikes now that his power has subsided a little bit, and if subsequently Dozier starts hitting more homers again. It will be trouble if pitchers start throwing more strikes but Dozier isn't hitting homers (or at least getting extra base hits).

Walker made $8M in his third (not second) season of arbitration (he was a super-two player).

I did some fairly simple scaling of Santana's 2014 stats based on various BABIP regressions, and even with a .330 BABIP (which is completely reasonable for him) he ends up as a .700 OPS hitter, which is average production for a shortstop. Even with all the expected regression, his floor isn't terrible.

Prices would probably be higher, but I think the current situation (especially the previous iteration prior to the bonus pools) has definite advantages for the Twins. First, many deals don't come down completely to just a straight bidding war, but often are influenced by relationships teams have developed with the players, trainers and their families. Many of the top players (like Javier) already have deals arranged with teams, which indicates they aren't necessarily going for top dollar. A team that has made significant investments internationally (like the Twins) will be at a major advantage to teams that haven't (like the Orioles). If there is a draft, then that advantage goes away almost completely. Second, the current system allows teams to acquire top talent without having a terrible record. The Twins definitely took advantage of this in 2009 when they signed Sano, Polanco and Kepler. Had an international draft been in place at that point, the Twins would have had the #22 pick and definitely would not have been able to select Sano, and probably not Polanco either. This advantage has mostly disappeared with the new bonus pools, but since teams are willing to go over the limit (and acquire extra money via trades), it is still relevant.

I disagree with this. There may be little doubt that MLB wants an international draft, but I don't think it needs one. I think an international draft will predominately hurt the overall development and compensation of international prospects, and primarily benefit the owners and MLB players. Personally, I think the Moncada situation just shows how underpaid players are in the amateur draft. It seems rather unfair that these systems are negotiated as part of the CBA where minor league players are not represented.

I also think this. I was able to see Sano for a game back in 2013, and he is big but also moves pretty well. He may not have the specific agility/quickness for 3B, but he isn't a slow plodder either. I recall some prospect writer compare him to TE. I suspect that if Sano grew up in the US, he probably would be a TE/DE in college right now.

One of the baseball presentations at the Sloan Analytics Conference involved using spring training stats to improve pre-season projections. The presenter, Dan Rosenheck, was able to find a small but significant improvement if you adjust with spring training stats that stabilize quickly (K%, BB%, GB%, ISO, etc). So it seems that certain spring training stats are meaningful to a certain extent. http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=3608 Presentation slides: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gb92yc96fme14rr/spring%20forward.pptx?dl=0

I don't know how reliable those stats are, but there is the example of Corey Knebel. He was drafted #39 overall in 2013. In 2013 his walk rate was 8.6% in Rookie and Low-A. In 2014 his walk rate jumped up to 13% in AA and AAA. I don't know how much stock you should take in a single example (probably just slightly above zero), but it does seem to happen.

I did kind of say that, and I think for the most part I will stand by that, though with the caveat of having it be one more "serious" shoulder injury. I think for the most part we are basically saying the same thing. I am not advocating for Meyer to be moved to the bullpen right now. I too want Meyer to be a starter until he fails as a starter. However, I think we have different definitions of "fails as a starter" (and there is no "right" definition). I am probably on the more conservative end, and so if Meyer struggles with another shoulder issue this year (making it three years in a row), I would prefer to have him switch roles before suffering something catastrophic. But I can definitely see the viewpoint where "fails as a starter" means something much more serious has happened. And if I recall correctly, I'm pretty sure Perkins dealt with a couple seasons of fairly serious issues before he was moved out of the rotation.

Durability isn't just innings per start; it is also making starts and staying off the DL. I agree with you that it is completely fine if he could make 34 starts every year but only pitch 5 innings. However, the problem is that he has missed roughly 25% of the past two seasons because of shoulder issues. So even with his very restricted usage, he is injuring his shoulder as a starter. Luckily, so far these injuries haven't been season or career threatening. But at the same time, I don't think it is a good idea to have him constantly do something that is putting him on the DL. There are all kinds of reasons why this may just be a temporary thing. He could tweak his mechanics or change his training routine. Or maybe just getting older will help. I don't know, and it is possible that nobody really knows for sure. But if he injures his shoulder again, I do think it is prudent to try him in the bullpen rather than continuing to put him in a position where he injures himself. He might continue to get hurt regardless, but he might stay healthier (Perkins is a good example). He probably won't be as valuable as a reliever on a rate basis, but he is definitely more valuable as a very good (maybe great) reliever over six seasons than as an oft-injured starter who blows out his shoulder after two.

I'm not sure that is completely true. According to a Rhett Bollinger piece earlier this offseason, Meyer was supposed to get called up in September but was shut down with another shoulder issue: "All Alex Meyer had to do was get through one final start at Triple-A Rochester last season, and the Twins' No. 4 prospect (according to MLB.com) was finally going get to his chance to get called up to the Majors for the first time. But it wasn't to be, as Meyer left his start early and was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation, which ended his season on Aug. 30. So while Meyer has tried not to harp on his missed opportunity to come up and pitch in relief down the stretch, the 6-foot-9 right-hander believes he's now primed to make an impact with the Twins in 2015." http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/107369412/twins-alex-meyer-ready-to-compete-for-major-league-rotation Also, Rob Antony mentioned in his interview with Twinkietown earlier this week that they still have questions about his durability: "So with three pitches, if he is able physically to handle the workload of a starter, which is probably the biggest question mark just because he hasn't done it yet, but if he is then I don't see any reason why he can't start." http://www.twinkietown.com/2015/2/4/7974951/twinkie-town-2015-q-a-with-rob-antony-part-ii In my opinion, the biggest question mark with Meyer is his durability. That is the main reason why I think a future in the bullpen isn't out of the question. And that is why I think he will start at AAA. The Twins want their young pitchers to demonstrate some durability and consistency before getting called up (think Gibson and May). I would guess they send him to AAA with no pitch or inning restrictions, just to see if he can throw 100+ pitches multiple starts in a row (which he has only done once in his career) without any injuries or setbacks.

I'm a big fan a Turner. Two things really obscured how well he did last year. First, the Florida State League depresses batting stats and makes them look worse than they really are. Second, his slow start had everyone down on him right away. Despite the terrible start, he still ended up with league-average production in the FSL (101 wRC+), which is pretty good for a defensive-minded catcher. I think if his season had gone in reverse - started with 3 months of .787 OPS and then struggled to finished out the year - the entire narrative would have changed and there would be more hype about him. I wished he walked more, but he did limit his strike-outs pretty well. I'm really excited to see how he does in AA this season, as he might be my sleeper pick for this coming year.