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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    There are a lot of advanced batting stats that automatically adjust for ballpark. On fangraphs, it is wRC+, so we don't have a go around guessing how much his performance will change after moving out of Coor's field. The stat does that for us. For 2015 so far, Tulo's wRC+ is 122, which is the 3rd highest SS with 200 ABs (Peralta at 133, Crawford at 123). His ZIPS projection for the rest of season is 136, which is almost identical to Dozier's wRC+ (137). So one would expect him to hit as well as Dozier. Different hitting profile, obviously, but the overall value will be similar. Peak Tulo is more in the 140-150 range, which is just as good as Mauer has ever hit outside of 2009.
  2. markos
    I'm barely old enough to remember. Its kind of odd, but Gagne was my favorite player for a while growing up. I was an 8-year-old aspiring shortstop in 1991, so of course I gravitated to player on my favorite team that shared my position. Good times... ...unlike the recent times, with all the random misfits that have been sent out to man short.
  3. markos
    Gagne was definitely the best, and he doesn't belong on that list at all. In the last 30 Twins seasons, he has the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 11th and 17th best seasons at SS based on bWAR. He was a solidly above-average SS for 5 straight seasons, accumulating 18 bWAR in a Twins uniform.
  4. markos
    Cherry-picking dates a little bit, but... ...since he came back from the DL on June 1st, he has as a 104 wRC+. ...since June 12, he has a 120 wRC+.
  5. markos
    I say this tongue-in-cheek, but I have to disagree. It would appear from Gonsalves's performance that the low to high A difference is more of a 3.9 K/9 to 11.3 K/9 jump.
  6. markos
    I think much of the recent research on pitching aging would argue otherwise. While the probability of him gaining velocity isn't zero, from (at least) age 21 onward, the average pitcher experiences a slow, steady decline in velocity over the rest of their career. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age
  7. markos
    Are you guessing that 10 hits were stolen just in 2014? If so, that is pretty significant - adding those hits back in would increase his batting average to .299. And if you assume that half of the hits stolen were potential doubles, that would up his OPS to .780.
  8. markos
    It would be really interesting if someone was able to quantify exactly how many hits have been taken away due to aggressive shifting. Yes, Mauer's drop-off in production has coincided with the brain injury, but it has also coincided with his decline years and with a significant league-wide uptick in defensive shifts. It is hard to know exactly how much each factor is contributing to his decline. I've always thought that Mauer is one of the most shiftable hitters in the league (flyballs go opposite field; grounders get pulled). I recall a post (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-mlb-playoffs-exploiting-kansas-city-royals-ultimate-outfield-jarrod-dyson-alex-gordon-lorenzo-cain/) showing how Mauer basically had to hit the foul line against Alex Gordon in order to get a hit down the line. Granted, that is just one example, but in general I think that there have been a lot of balls in play that three or more years ago that would definitely have been hits but now outfielders are getting to. Mauer has been hitting well with RISP. With runners on base, infielders are much less likely to be able to shift (or shift as aggressively). So maybe it isn't just small sample size luck that Mauer is hitting better with runners on base.
  9. markos
    I noticed this same thing as Seth was going through the system depth-chart posts a few weeks ago. I have two questions for the crowd: Who is the most exciting player in the Twins system that: 1) Plays an up-the-middle position (CF, SS, 2B, C) 2) Is at High-A or lower 3) Not named Nick Gordon ?? Does that player make your top-20 prospect list?
  10. markos
    I agree that Jay was definitely not a reach at #6, but I do think it is important to recognize why he was available at #6. If he had started all year, stayed healthy, kept his stuff, and performed as well as he did as a reliever, then he probably goes 1-1. But the risk is that nobody knows for certain how his arm is going to react to being a starter. Sure, he has performed well in longer outings this year, which mitigates some of that risk. But the risk isn't zero, and it is perfectly reasonable for different people to rate that risk differently. I personally think it is a big risk, despite what the experts are suggesting. But I am biased toward pitchers who have demonstrated durability and stamina.
  11. markos
    My concern is that there is basically zero evidence to prove that his stuff will hold up when switching to a professional starter schedule - 6+ innings every five days. He only pitched 60 innings this year, which is his career high. Will his stuff stay when he gets to 80, or 100, or 150 innings? Or will his 95 MPH fastball drop down to 91 MPH when in a starters role? It wouldn't be the first time that a reliever loses velocity when moving to a starter.
  12. markos
    It kind of sucks that it is the Indians. I really wanted to cheer for him to do well.
  13. markos
    I'm not thrilled about this pick, but there wasn't anyone left who I liked a ton better. I'm definitely going to cheer for the kid, and I hope that he makes the adjustment to the rotation without any issues. But he has only picked 122 innings total in his college career, so it will be a big question mark if he can adjust to 180+ innings per season.
  14. markos
    Tidbit in McDaniel's last post: I find it interesting that Aiken has a home, and I wonder what his price is.
  15. markos
    This isn't too surprising. I looked at Meyer's stats for the first few innings of each game while in AAA: 1st inning: 24% K%, 11% BB%, 2.31 ERA, .600 oppOPS 2nd inning: 29% K%, 10% BB%, 4.41 ERA, .674 oppOPS 3rd inning: 20% K%, 8% BB%, 6.25 ERA, .848 oppOPS
  16. markos
    I would argue that Bregman's power baseline is significantly higher than Michael's. Michael lost a lot of his power when the NCAA switched to composite bats between his sophomore and junior seasons. His junior year he only had a .455 SLG, .150 ISO and only 4 HRs. Bregman, in contrast, currently has a .548 SLG, .230 ISO and 9 HRs. Even though Bregman will probably lose some power transitioning to pro ball, his current baseline is high enough that he should remain effective (especially as a middle infielder) with even a moderate drop in power.
  17. markos
    I always subtract 1-2 MPH from any college starter to account for the difference between pitching once a week versus pitching every five days. So if Tate is 93-98 right now, I'm guessing he will be 91-96 as a pro, which is still really good for a starter (averaging 93 MPH gets one into the top-30) I think it is reasonable to do a similar adjustment for bullpen-to-starter conversions. That is the big question I have about Jay - will he be able to maintain his stuff during the grind of pitching every 5 days?
  18. markos
    Pitchers with 30% or higher during their first season in Low-A: Matt Cain (30%) Cole Hamels (43%) Scott Kazmir (35%) John Danks (32%) Clayton Kershaw (32%) Madison Bumgarner (30%) Shelby Miller (32%) Dylan Bundy (40%) Jose Fernandez (34%)
  19. markos
    I disagree. I think there are a lot of reasons to be very concerned. I looked at the top HS pitchers drafted from 2001-2013 (40ish pitchers) during their first full season of pro ball. The average K% for that group was 24%. Stewart's K% was only 17.22% last year, the 6th lowest. The only pitchers with lower K% were: Chris Gruler (14.29%) Matt Hobgood (14.60%) Trey Ball (15.11%) Colt Griffin (15.31%) Chris Volstad (15.57%) The only other names that were under 20%: Zach Lee (19.44%) Nick Travieso (17.53%) It is completely unprecedented for a pitcher drafted as highly as Stewart to struggle to get strikeouts as much as Stewart has and become anything more than a backend starter. Maybe he will be the exception, but right now he looks a lot more like the next Zach Lee than the next Jose Fernandez. And this isn't taking into account his injury issues. The strongest predictor of future injuries is past injury history, and he has already been hurt a lot. I am very concerned that he won't be able to hold up over a full season. I understand that he has a lot of good excuses to explain away his poor performance thus far. But until he starts missing bats consistently, I'm going to stay pessimistic.
  20. markos
    I agree that defense is the real key here. If he is a legitimate plus defender in CF, then he has a strong case for BPA at #6. If he serviceable at best - and most likely will move to a corner - then pass. I haven't seen him play, so I can't judge one way or another.
  21. markos
    I know that one expert (I think Jim Callis) considered Bregman similar to Trae Turner from last year, not in style but in overall talent. And most experts had Turner ranked slightly below Gordon last year. If the transitive property holds with prospects, then I think it is reasonable to think that Gordon would be ranked ahead of Bregman if he was in this draft.
  22. markos
    Jeremy, I think your top-5 prediction is completely reasonable. Is it your personal opinion that the Twins should pick between Tucker and Jay, or do you think that is what the Twins are thinking right now? I have a hard time believing that Tucker is the BPA in this scenario... but I can't make a really strong case that it should be someone else. Such is this draft.
  23. markos
    I think the Twins deserve a lot of credit for Gonsalves's development. Two years ago, he was a kid with inconsistent velocity, bad control and a non-existent breaking ball. Today, he is demonstrating excellent command, has a more than serviceable breaking ball, and good enough (and seemingly consistent) velocity. And maybe he will add a couple of ticks to his fastball, which certainly would help. Hopefully he will continue to be durable and hold up over the course of his first full season.
  24. markos
    Did you happen to note Gonsalves's fastball velocity during the game?
  25. markos
    Regarding the Twins (non)investment in catchers... 1) With the #78 pick in 2013, the selection of Stuart Turner was the highest draft pick used on a catcher since Mauer was selected #1. Since the Mauer pick, they have drafted 13 catchers in the first 10 rounds, with the average pick being #210. 2) Other than Wilson Ramos, I am unaware of any other Latin American prospects of note at the catcher position. There may have been a few catcher signings, and maybe even some high-profile signings, but I'm certainly not aware any catchers in the Twins organization who has shown any serious development from Latin America since Ramos - who was signed in 2004. I get it that developing catchers is not easy, but it certainly seems to me that the Twins have neglected the position for years now.
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