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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    In the 2016 Hardball Times Annual, Jeff Zimmerman wrote an article that looked at historic scouting grades from the Baseball America top-100 and calculated the subsequent WAR for each specific grade. While everyone can always disagree about how to correctly calculate value, at least this methodology looks at the historical record and comes up with values that are better than arbitrary. And I think it will provide more intuitive results to your work here.
  2. markos
    At the very least Buxton is fouling off more pitches. Overall, his swing rate is basically identical to last year, his chase rate is basically the same, and his swing-and-miss rate is actually higher. The reason he is "seeing more pitches" is because he is fouling off pitches instead of putting the ball in play. Last year, on contact, he was basically 50-50 between fouls and putting the ball in play. So far this season, it has swung to 5-1 in favor of fouls. A good thing? Sure. Sustainable? Who knows. Did I just waste 30 minutes of my day looking up stats that have essentially zero meaning in only 7 PAs? Yep. Worth it? It always is.
  3. markos
    That is a good point. I still think he is going to have positive defensive value from his arm; I just don't think he will be 33% better than the next best outfielder.
  4. markos
    I agree it is a huge miss. I think +5 is a good guess for this coming year.
  5. markos
    That is how projection systems work. The only human work done is to divvy up playing time among the players. Has anyone asked anyone at BP for a comment on that projection?
  6. markos
    Two serious and one not-so-serious thoughts about his defensive rating: 1) Maybe they factored into his projection their Buxton fielding ratings and just assumed Buxton would be running over and catching all the fly balls in left as well as center. 2) The vast majority of Rosario's value came from his arm. On a per inning basis, he was more valuable than basically any other outfielder in that category - even better than guys like Cespedes and Gordon. I'm guessing that level of performance isn't exactly sustainable, as either he will stop being so accurate with his throws and more runners will be safe, or runners will just stop trying to take extra bases. Either way his value from his arm is going to go down. 3) Their fielding projection system might still be factoring in his time at 2B in the minors. He was pretty bad in the infield, so it would surprise me if that extrapolated poorly to the outfield - that historically poor fielders at 2B in the minors make poor fielders in a corner OF.
  7. markos
    Projection Systems: Steamer: .256 .329 .487 .816 ZIPS: .266 .333 .463 .796 PECOTA: .255 .326 .442 .768 A lot of uncertainty here. My initial thoughts about Park were very negative: - Increasing strikeout and decreasing walk rates the past three years - Overall line last year was buoyed by a .403 BABIP last year (career average ~.320) - Turning 30 this year, so definitely leaving his prime But as the offseason wore on, there was been a lot more positive news. - The projection systems all seem positive. - Dan Farnsworth (scout for Fangraphs) really likes his mechanics and is optimistic. - He has hit okay this spring. The strikeouts - and lack of walks - have been worrisome this spring, but I'm definitely more optimistic now than I was in December. I think Seth's prediction is pretty close to what I would take.
  8. markos
    Projection systems: Marcels .272 .368 .497 .865 Steamer .257 .345 .510 .855 ZIPS .249 .337 .491 .828 PECOTA .245 .339 .496 .835 What does everything think Sano's true talent BABIP will be? Last year he had a .396 BABIP, which I don't think is sustainable. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he regularly is in the .320-.340 range.
  9. markos
    Projection systems: Marcels .244 .300 .386 .686 Steamer .259 .309 .400 .709 ZIPS .266 .310 .405 .715 PECOTA .253 .309 .401 .710 Please stay healthy.
  10. markos
    Projection systems: Marcels .269 .304 .457 .761 ZIPS .256 .287 .415 .702 Steamer .257 .291 .411 .702 PECOTA .250 .280 .402 .682
  11. markos
    I would add "without hurting himself," to the first sentence. My second-biggest worry with Buxton is that he is going to be a great player for 120 games a year but always have a stint or two on the DL.
  12. markos
    ZIPS .256 .302 .409 .711 Steamer .261 .310 .393 .703 Marcel .250 .270 .444 .715 PECOTA .253 .294 .375 .669 I would take the OVER on Seth's projection. I'm not expecting Escobar to have an OPS below .700 at this point.
  13. markos
    ZIPS .252 .315 .427 .742 Steamer .250 .315 .422 .737 Marcel .251 .313 .423 .736 PECOTA .246 .310 .418 .728 Though I'm not as optimistic as Seth, I think I would take the upper end of these projections. Also, I'm kind of expect that he will spend time on the DL. Last year was his first DL-free season, so I expect him to miss a few weeks and play, say, 130 games.
  14. markos
    You beat me to it. Here is PECOTA: .279/.360/.387 (.747) I think Seth is a little optimistic (surprise, surprise), but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. It wouldn't take much (maybe a .340 BABIP instead of a .320) for Mauer to reach Seth's .790 OPS projection. I would definitely take the OVER on his .718 OPS from last year, and ... maybe... take the OVER on the ~.745 OPS from the projection systems. But the UNDER on Seth's .790. Regardless, if Mauer can keep his OBP above .330, he should still hit near the top of the lineup. Is it crazy to think he might be the best leadoff guy on the team?
  15. markos
    Here is what the projection systems think: ZIPS Suzuki: .253/.305/.334 (.639) Murphy: .245/.295/.379 (.674) Steamer S: .253/.308/.354 (.662) M:.253/.306/.394 (.700) Marcels S: .254/.311/.351 (.663) M: .269/.323/.396 (.719) PECOTA S: .247/.299/.349 (.648) M: .254/.305/.390 (.695) Seth is quite optimistic about Murphy and middle-of-the-pack on Suzuki.
  16. markos
    There is a decent chance that moving May to the bullpen - especially in a one-inning, high-leverage role - will permanently end his chances of being an effective starter. Some pitchers have been able to bounce back and forth effectively, but others (ex. Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando) were never able to get go back to starting. I don't expect Ryan to admit that publicly, but I do wonder if they understand that risk internally.
  17. markos
    I second REPETE's question: what is Hughes's velocity looking like? I have to disagree with the UP assessment of Hughes. For me, the fact that he hasn't gotten a single strikeout - or even a single swing-and-miss - makes it seem like he should be trending down, not up.
  18. markos
    Uberprospects aren't guaranteed anything, but at the same time they are expected to be the players to push the salary expectations forward. Your Sano extension is very close to Rizzo's, even though Rizzo signed his 3 years ago and after a less impressive season. I wouldn't be surprised if Sano got a lot of push back from the player's union on a deal with those parameters.
  19. markos
    I was looking at wRC+ and wOBA, both of which indicate that Plouffe was better last year. And by those metrics, Rosario's stats from last year would be Plouffe's fourth best season. Also, I'm definitely not suggesting that they need to get rid of Rosario - I think he would be very useful as a 4th outfielder, pinch runner and defensive replacement.
  20. markos
    My reasoning was twofold: 1) I worry that Rosario will struggle at the plate next year. 2) Even if Rosario isn't struggling and manages to duplicate last year's success, it is certainly possible that Plouffe will still outhit him. So if Kepler is crushing it in AAA, I think the odds are that Rosario is the weakest link. Now I can see an argument that a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield with Sano at 3B might be better overall defensively than the Kepler-Buxton-Sano with Plouffe alignment, though a lot depends on how poorly Sano is in right field and how much better (or worse?) he would fair at third.
  21. markos
    Yes. Like Jose Fernandez good. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if the player he replaces in June is Rosario.
  22. markos
    One other point to add about Jay's role last year at Illinois: when their season was on the line against Vanderbilt in the super-regional, he started that game. They knew he was their best pitcher.
  23. markos
    I don't think Dunn is as bad of an example as you claim. Most of his terrible fielding numbers occurred in the back half of his 20s. Your query cut out a couple of his better seasons (2001 & 2003) and the Rfield value includes both his outfield defense AND his 1B defense (a position at which he was significantly worse on a per/game basis). Focusing just on his outfield defense, it was mostly competent up through age 25: Age | OF Games | OF Runs 21 | 63 | +1 22 | 118 | +1 23 | 102 | -1 24 | 156 | -4 25 | 133 | -10 26 | 156 | -17 27 | 144 | -26 28 | 141 | -19 29 | 84 | -20 Carlos Lee had a similar trajectory, though he didn't fall off until he got closer to 30. Given Sano's relative youth, and how other big players performed at a similar age, I'm cautiously optimistic that Sano will be competent in the outfield for the next year or two, at which point there should be openings for him in the infield.
  24. markos
    Context is important when looking at his home run rate. Yes, fewer homers is better, but the Florida State League is brutal on power in general, and Fort Myers is in particular. The entire Miracle team gave up only 35 and hit only 27 in 139 games. The 'average' Miracle pitcher would have given up 4 homers when pitching the same amount of innings as Stewart.
  25. markos
    Worse than Stewart - few Ks, lots of BBs but also lots of HRs.
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