markos

Would extra guaranteed years move the needle very much? Say he got something along the lines of Jason Kipnis or Matt Carpenter, so ~$14M for his FA years. I'm not sure their is a ton of surplus value for a 32-33yo Dozier at that cost. There is probably some, as he would be slightly underpaid if he didn't deteriorate too severely into his mid-thirties. But that extra value, two seasons away, is dwarfed by the near-term value as a significantly underpaid elite player. Now, there is some value there - I'm not trying to deny that - I just don't think it is a huge amount. For example, I don't think adding two more years to his contract at $14M per - even as team options - would be enough to put Urias in play. Maybe the secondary pieces would be better, but I don't think it changes the basic framework very much.

Most definitely. They structured both Scherzer's and Strasburg's contracts with massive outlays in 2019 - ~$80M between the two of them. Adding Ryan Zimmerman's $18M and they will have almost $100M tied up in 3 players. Much of the rest of the roster will be gone (Murphy, Gonzales, Werth, Espinoza, Norris) or on the cusp of leaving (Rendon and Roark). I don't think there is any way to fit a Harper deal (assuming he gets the $40M+ he is looking for) and still be able to fill out a competitive roster, especially on the position player side. They have one blue-chip position prospect (Robles), but basically every other interesting prospect is a pitcher. My guess is that they go for broke for the next two years and then pick up the pieces after 2018.

Okay. I think we are on the same page here.

Is it really the conventional wisdom that Puig is a negative asset at this point? If he was a free agent this winter, I think he would get way more than a 2yr-$17M contract with a team option, which is essentially what his current contract is. Did he pass through waivers unclaimed last summer or something? Despite everything that has gone wrong for him the past two seasons, he has still been basically a league-average player when on the field. He's only 26 and clearly has a very high ceiling. Fangraphs is currently projecting him to be solidly above-average (3 WAR). I think teams would line up for him if he was freely available. Just so there is no confusion, I don't want Puig as part of any package for Dozier, particularly as the headliner. But that is because of roster fit and how he would fit in the Twins contention window, not because I think he doesn't have any value.

The more advanced models (like the one used by BP) do try to control for the ability of the pitcher. And, for the most part, framing ability (as they calculate it) remains fairly stable when catchers have switched teams. Rene Rivera, Russell Martin, Yasmani Grandal, Miguel Montero all remained very good with their new teams. And as I mentioned in a different thread, I don't think Cameron's indictment holds much water considering the Astros replaced Castro with McCann, who is arguably just as good of a framer and unarguably a much better hitter.

I thought the same thing when I saw that Espinosa may be non-tendered. His bat leaves a lot to be desired, but he has been legitimately above-average defensively at shortstop. Plus, on a one year deal he would be pretty easy to move at the trade deadline, especially if he has another decent season.

My answer is that the team's top priority should be improving run prevention, not just acquiring better pitching, and from that perspective the signing of Castro is a move in the right direction. As other people have pointed out, almost every team is trying to acquire good pitching right now. By every defensive metric, last year they were one of the worst defensive teams. Taking a holistic approach to run prevention opens the door for several smaller, non-pitching moves that could have, cumulatively, as big an impact as any trade for pitching. Some rough back-of-the-envelope calculations: If you buy into the various pitch-framing metrics, moving from Suzuki to Castro could subtract 25 runs. Adding a defensive 4th OF and ensuring that Grossman/Santana/Sano don't play another inning in the outfield could subtract 30 runs. Adding a defensively above-average SS could subtract 15 runs. Now, obviously the Twins still need to acquire/develop better pitchers, and any plan to get them to a 90+ win team will require a both-and approach to pitching and defense. But making a commitment to putting an above-average defense on the field everyday will go a long way toward improving run prevention, even with this current pitching staff. Getting to 90+ wins is a long haul right now - probably a multi-year project - and the Castro signing is a first step in that direction.

Definitely a concern, though they replaced Castro with Brian McCann, who has almost as good framing numbers and a much better bat. Hard not to see the swap as a net positive for the Astros, regardless of how much one values Castro's framing.

I think it is legitimate to question how "strong" this start has been for the new regime, or at least withhold judgement until we have more insight for the direction they are taking the franchise. Dumping Plouffe and signing Castro both (should) move the needle in the right direction, but the Castro signing kind of is a win-now move. He is solid, but given his age and strikeout rates it is certainly possible that he falls off a cliff in the next couple of years. If they end up moving Dozier and/or Santana for prospects next week, what was the point of the Castro signing? I'm not sure what their longterm plan is yet, but for me the Castro signing signals a willingness to keep Dozier and Santana and try to win now. And I'm not sure that is the right move.

I think lots of people would argue that Castro is better than Wieters. I've heard a lot of reports that he hasn't been the same after TJ surgery, both at the plate and behind it.

While I agree that the Cardinals are kind of an awkward fit for Dozier, it is worth remembering that the Cardinals did trade Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward - a trade, broadly speaking, that resembles the current Dozier situation. Again, the Cardinals don't seem like a natural fit, but they are one of the few teams that actually has a bit of a surplus of young pitching.

I'm going to stick with my original analysis for a potential Dozier return: - one of (league average regular with 4+ years of team control OR top 25-50 prospect) - one youngish below-average but above-replacement level pitcher (think 25yo 4th starter) - one A-ball youngster with upside. From the Dodgers, my guess would be: - one of De Leon or Alvarez - one of Stewart or Stripling - one of [pick a random 19yo with upside] For the record, I think Santana would return a top 75-100 prospect.

Sounds like Adam Brett Walker is available again.

Another national site imagined a Dozier-to-Dodgers deal over the weekend: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209527456/5-hypothetical-black-friday-trades/ "Twins trade 2B Brian Dozier to the Dodgers for RHPs Jose De Leon, Yadier Alvarez and Jordan Sheffield." Seriously? I would take that in a heartbeat as well.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how he does in Seattle. I'm a bit surprised that they were willing to move Walker without getting pitching back. As I was researching potential Dozier landing spots, Seattle did make my list (assumed moving Cano to 1B), and I did include Walker in the trade. But my thought was a Dozier/Santana package to help their rotation - even with Walker they are short on starters. FWIW, my return package was Walker, one of Tyler O'Neil or Drew Jackson, and then one or two interesting low-A arms. In light of this Segura trade, that might might have been light (IMO, Dozier > Segura).

Done. Who do you want instead of Barnes?

I think the Keller for Santana trade is very fair. The only change is that if you are paying some salary, I think you could fetch a little more. I think Keller + mid-20s 5th starter would make sense.

Yeah, it definitely hurts to have missed with Stewart and Jay. In the short term, the core is Buxton-Sano-Kepler-Berrios-Gonsalves. If they don't start to perform like above-average players, the new regime will almost have to start over.

Out of curiosity, what are some things you disagree with?

Automated ball/strike calls.

FWIW, fangraphs is projecting Dozier to be less than 0.5 WAR better than Kinsler in 2017, and PECOTA projects the opposite. Not sure about 2018.

It is a tough balance to be sure. I think there is space for 2 or 3 flip options. Bullpen probably has room for a couple. In a certain sense, Santiago already fits this profile - 15 decent starts and he could be flipped. Hard to determine if there will be room to sign another starter - depends on if they decide keep Santiago and if they trade Santana. If Santiago is non-tendered and Santana is traded, then they definitely have room for an arm like Holland. I don't have the option status for Rosario or Kepler off the top of my head, but I don't think it would ruin either to spend the first 3 months in AAA (or for Rosario, as 4th OF) to give room for a player like Gomez on a one-year-deal.

Looking at the recent history of similar minor-league catchers, I think odds are that he starts less than 100 big league games in his career and is out of baseball before he turns 30. My guess is that there is a 10-20% chance that he ends up as an OK regular. This isn't a knock on Garver; he has done well as a later round pick to continually move up and be on the doorsteps of the majors. But the reality is that he has almost 2000 PAs in the minors, but less than 100 at AAA. He still has a lot of development left to be successful in the big leagues, but that is going to be happening in his late twenties when his physical skills will be plateauing at best, deteriorating at worst. He might still be successfully - that's why the probability isn't zero. But it seems unwise to count on him right now.

I agree that age doesn't matter if he becomes really good, but age does effect the likelihood that he becomes really good! Looking back since 2010, there have been 21 catchers who have done what Garver did this past year (300+ PAs at AA, 24-26yo, at least 118 wRC+). One (Stephen Vogt) ended up as an above-average regular. Another, Caleb Joseph, is arguably a starter. The third best in the list is probably Chris Herrmann. The majority never made it to the majors, many only got a cup-of-coffee. In contrast, looking at the same criteria for catchers 23yo and younger, there were twelve total. Four (D'Arnaud, Norris, Realmuto, Contreras) look to be at least average regulars, and another three (Susac, Vazquez, Swihart) are backups to varying degrees. Now I'm not saying that Garver's chances are zero, but history suggests that they are not very high. Every year there are roughly three older catchers in the high minors who do as good or better than what Garver did last year, and the vast majority do not have an impact in the majors.

Sorry this is in a bit of a ragged state. I have always wanted to do an offseason blueprint, but life interferes and it always gets overcome by the offseason moves. Ideally, I would have stronger takes on roster details (this plan has 40-man issues...) and payroll (which I ignore completely), but there isn't enough time... Overview: As I see the current state of the organization, 2017 should be focused on determining whether or not the seeds of a 90+ win team exists. First, is there a core of 4-6 players that can be penciled in for 20+ WAR per season? Second, is there enough depth fill out the rest of the 25-man roster with better-than-replacement-level depth? Even the most optimistic projections indicate that the current roster isn’t very good. The early consensus indicates that the squad should be somewhere in the 75ish win range. This leaves a lot of work to get to the level of a perennial contender - enough work that realistically the organization is building for 2019 rather than 2017 or 2018. Given that, it is likely that Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana will not be part of the next good Twins team. My plan, broadly speaking, is has three areas of focus: - Give playing time to the potential core players - Clear out veterans and replacement-level fodder - Add quality depth to support (hopefully) elite core 40-man roster decisions: Removed everyone who is on the old side and who I consider replacement-level at best. Pat Dean Buddy Boshers Andrew Albers Alex Wimmers Logan Schafer James Beresford Danny Santana (legitimate case as the worst MLB player for the past two seasons…) Ryan O’Rourke Arbitration Decisions: Brandon Kintzler: No. Need room for to give younger bullpen arms a shot. Trevor Plouffe: No. Too expensive. Hector Santiago: Yes. Want 1 tradeable starter. At 1-yr/$8M, Santiago is as good as any other similarly priced pitcher on FA market. Tommy Milone: No. Eduardo Escobar: Yes. Kyle Gibson: Yes. Ryan Pressly: Yes. 31 spots if my math is correct... Rule 5 adds: Fernando Romero Felix Jorge Jason Wheeler Zach Granite Daniel Palka Mitch Garver 37 spots... Trades: Most of my blueprint hinges on the trades of Dozier and Santana. I am on record on being a Dozier optimist, and I am fully aware that both of these trades are on the optimistic side. And my own preference is to focus on depth rather than sell-out for upside. So your mileage may vary on these trades... Dozier -> Dodger Most obvious fit right now. Dodgers have a big hole at 2B; they are in a win-now mode; and they have plenty of prospects to burn. My return is: Jose De Leon - top-50 pitching prospect. May not have #1 upside, but dominated AAA. Ready for majors. Brock Stewart - backend starter with 6 years of team control remaining. Has potential to be an average starter. Chris Taylor - 26yo SS. 5 years of team control remaining. Like Stewart, should be above replacement-level, but league-average is probably his ceiling. Santana + Vargas -> Texas Texas had the worst 1B/DH combo in the league, and they also need starting pitching. It seems like a good fit to clear out some of the DH/1B logjam and move Santana. In return: Jurickson Profar - 24yo SS. 3 years of team control remaining. Former #1 prospect, but multiple shoulder injuries have derailed career. Cole Ragans - 19yo LHP. 2016 #30 pick. 38 spots... Rule 5 pick: Definitely pick someone in the Rule 5 draft 39 spots... Free Agency: 1 - Sign Jason Castro. He has the potential to be a great fit. He has really struggled against lefties, but a smart platoon with Murphy or Garver could mitigate that weakness. He receives top marks for his pitch-framing and defense. 2 - reclamation bullpen arms One or two ‘used to be good’ arms on 1 or 2 year deals. Options include Greg Holland, Neftali Feliz, Drew Storen, Luke Hochevar. One or two ‘hey, maybe something will happen’ arms on minor league deals. Options include moving Mat Latos to bullpen, reclamation of former top-prospects Casey Kelly and Jacob Turner, trying Jorge de la Rosa as a LOOGY. 42 spots… Not sure how to count Perkins and Hughes. With Hughes in particular, there is a decent chance that his career is over. Perkins is a question mark as well. Starting Lineup: C - Castro 1B - Mauer 2B - Polanco SS - Profar 3B - Sano LF - Rosario CF - Buxton RF - Kepler DH - Park Bench: Murphy Escobar Grossman Taylor I like this lineup because it has a ton of flexibility and depth. Four switch-hitters. Four guys who can play shortstop. I envision Profar in a Zobrist-esque role, playing all over the diamond, including as the nominal 4th OF. Grossman is primarily a backup DH, PH and occasional OF. He has a short leash; at the very least, he needs to crush lefties. The roster also has lots of good options for late-inning defensive replacements. Without Dozier, the lineup relies a ton on Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco developing. But that is kind of baked into the cake right now anyway... Granite, Palka and Walker provide OF and DH depth if needed. Starters: Gibson Santiago Berrios May Stewart ---- De Leon Meija Gonsalves The team will mostly likely need more than five starters, so I don't think it will be a big problem to get everyone enough trial innings. Trevor May is moved back to the rotation. He, Berrios and newly acquired Brock Stewart get the starts out of spring training. If any of the falter, De Leon is the first guy up. One way or another, Santiago is traded in July. That makes room for Meija or Gonsalves. The hope is that by the end of the season, the Twins have 3 or 4 spots in the rotation locked down with at least average arms. Bullpen: FA #1 FA #2 Pressly Rogers Tonkin Chargois Light The plan here is to provide innings to the FAs, and hopefully one or more will be flippable at the deadline. Joe Smith, Tyler Clippard, Brad Ziegler all returns some interesting pieces at the deadline last year. The Twins should try to take advantage of that. Beyond the free agents, the hope is that the long list of minor league relievers will finally start to have a positive impact with the big league team. At the very least, there will be room for them. If either Perkins or Hughes ends up returning to good health, they probably end up here as well.