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markos

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Everything posted by markos

  1. markos
    Sure, your statement is a fact, but it can still be misleading. For one, ERA is context dependent. So it may make more sense to use FIP instead of ERA since ERA includes defense. And it is probably better to use FIP-, as it adjusts for league and ballpark. Since the Twins are in the AL and played most of those seasons in a hitters park, they move up to 21st by FIP-. Still bad, but better than your number. So the next question is what is the absolute difference between the teams. Turns out that the difference between 21st and 14th (above-average!) is less than 2% (~0.1 FIP), which amounts to roughly 10 runs per season. So I don't think it is a huge stretch to include them in the middle chunk of the bell curve.
  2. markos
    Sure, but those stats are the difference between Jepsen with a 1.60 ERA and a 3.00 ERA. With the Twins, his K% (23%), BB% (7%) and swinging strike rate (12%) were all similar to his 2012-2014 run (25%, 8%, 10%). I'm just an armchair analyst, so maybe I'm missing something obvious. But right now I don't see obvious reasons why there was any expectation (other than normal reliever randomness) for Jepsen to not be his usual solid but unspectacular self (3.00-3.50 ERA) and instead be the worst reliever in baseball.
  3. markos
    If the Nats are willing to deal Giolito and Turner, I'm guessing they would be fishing for someone who is already a star. Would that start the conversation for Trout?
  4. markos
    I would have included Perez if I thought the Twins were going to be serious competitors in 2017-2018. Right now I think their window has shifted to 2018+, at which point Buxton will probably eclipse Perez in value.
  5. markos
    Yeah, I definitely wouldn't trade Buxton for all of them, though my list is a little more expansive than yours (I'd include Pederson, Reyes and maybe Story). Odor is the tough one for me. It is crazy that he already has over 1200 MLB PAs and he is actually younger than Buxton.
  6. markos
    He did mention Buxton again in his Honorable Mention column this morning.
  7. markos
    This is the huge question for the franchise, and not just in regard to the Santana question. Basically: Where are we at with the rebuild? My opinion is, and always has been, that this front office has set themselves up such that they need (at least) two of the Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Kepler core to become superstars, and then they need just enough depth to avoid any blackholes on the rest of the roster. (And honestly, this stars-and-a-little-bit-better-than-scrubs roster construction was the basis for most of the 2000s success.) I think the offense is close. Sano has flirted with stardom, and Kepler looks like he might be ahead of Buxton right now. There were too many black holes in the first couple of months, but those have been more or less filled. And the past month has reflected that, as the offense has actually been above average. So it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that the offense is set up for 2017 where if one of Buxton/Sano/Kepler takes a leap, there is enough talent (and depth) to hopefully keep the offense around league average. (At the very least, they should have a much better idea of who is wheat and who is chaff.) If a couple guys take a leap, then we're talking about a legitimately good offense. Pitching is a different story, as the road to respectability in 2017 requires a lot more wishful thinking. But is that enough to write off 2017? I don't know.
  8. markos
    I think it depends a lot on one's outlook for the next couple of seasons. If one doesn't think that the Twins will be contenders next year, I think there is a very good argument that the current combination Santana's performance/health, few pitchers on the market and a crappy upcoming FA class may be the best opportunity for maximizing his value. It may only be some mid-level prospects, but frankly a team can never have too many. There is real risk that he may get injured or further deteriorate in performance, which may completely destroy his trade value in the future. As it's often said: it is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. I can definitely see arguments on both the sides of this debate.
  9. markos
    I've been thinking the same thing. Is Mauer a top hitter? No. Is he overpaid? Yeah. Is he below-average for 1B? Probably a little. But he is still a high-OBP, league average hitter, and he is perfectly fine so long as he is the 6th or 7th best hitter on the team. From a team run generation perspective, having him in the lineup and getting on base is a big plus. This isn't a disaster like Ryan Zimmerman with the Nationals or Prince Fielder with Texas. I really like the Grossman-Dozier-Mauer-Sano-Kepler block in the lineup right now. All are capable of .340+ OBPs, 10%+ walk rates, and together have the potential to extend innings and really make pitchers work.
  10. markos
    Teams do it all the time. Now, the following list is a little incomplete because titles (President of Baseball Ops vs GM) vary from team to team, but here are some of the most recent GM-ish hires: David Stearns, Mil, Sept 21 from Houston John Hart, Atl, Sept 22, internal promotion Matt Klentak, Phi, Oct 26 from Anaheim Andy McPhail, Phi, June 29, outside baseball AJ Preller, SD, Aug 6 from Texas Farhan Zaidi, LAD, Nov 6 from Oak Andrew Friedman, LAD, Oct 14 from TB Dave Dombrowski, BOS, Aug 18, outside baseball Billy Eppler, LAA, Oct 4, NYY Jerry Dipoto, Sea, Sept 28, BOS Late-September and October are the most common times.
  11. markos
    There has been a lot of discussion about this very question within the sabermetric community. I was just listening to a podcast talk about "ceiling" for position players, and how it just so difficult to predict power development for players. There is a long list of very good players who were supposed to be low-power guys who figured out a way to hit for power and went from mediocre (or even non-prospect) to All-Star. Just looking at the best hitters in baseball so far this year, guys like Matt Carpenter, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, Jackie Bradley Jr, Aledmys Diaz, Ben Zobrist, Mookie Betts all fall under this general category. Most of those guys are carrying ISOs above .200 right now with very little expectation when they were drafted (or even their first few big league seasons) that they would be 20+ homer guys.
  12. markos
    True, they all won't get huge deals. But they will probably get more than the 2yr-$26.4M that Santana has left. So I think it is reasonable that any team that can convince itself to answer 'yes' to the following questions would have a legitimate interest in trading for him: 1) Does Santana improve our current rotation? 2) Are we expecting to sign free agent pitching help next offseason? 3) If Santana was a free agent, would he get more than the 2yr-$26.4M that he is owed? 4) Is he better than anyone we could sign for that same 2yr-$26.4M? 5) Is he better than any internal options for the next year or two? 6) Are we hoping to contend during the contract? Off the top of my head, I can see Baltimore, Toronto and Miami all being interested for the above reasons. And frankly, my mind has changed a lot on this. Initially, I would have said that no one is trading for Santana as he has basically zero value. But looking at the weak current market (and next year's free agent lists), I can understand the potential appeal.
  13. markos
    From a certain perspective, he may have some decent value even without picking up any money. The free agent starters market is crap next year, and even last year guys like Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Ian Kennedy were getting 5+ years, $14M-$18M per year. Santana is comparable. So if a team is looking for help this year AND is expecting to need FA mid-rotation help for the next couple of years, it may make a lot more sense to trade for Santana (only a two year commitment) rather than locking in a guy like Buchholz, Hellickson, Hill or Kazmir a $70M+ deal.
  14. markos
    I think this trade is very telling of Arcia's value to the rest of the league. Even though he was available to all 29 other teams, the best* offer the Twins got was for a PTBNL or cash, which is basically the lowest offer a team can give. Teams around the league have figured out that 30-homer power, in and of itself, isn't terribly valuable. If a player doesn't have good plate discipline and/or some defensive value (which Arcia definitely does not**), then he needs a ridiculous amount of power (.300+ ISO, 50+ HRs) to make up for it. That difference is why Chris Davis is an MVP candidate and Pedro Alvarez gets non-tendered. * It is possible that there is some value/upside hiding behind the PTBNL. It could be that the player couldn't be named because he is currently can't be traded (like he is on the DL). Or it could be that the trade will depend on how much Arcia plays. ** It is also worth pointing out that Arcia is quite an outlier with his plate discipline. Looking at players in the last 4 seasons with K% > 30%, BB% < 8% and ISO > .180, Arcia has been given the most PAs by a wide margin. He is at 967, while the next highest is Tim Beckham, the Rays occasional backup infielder, with 320. He gets a lot of grief for being so aggressive, and that is definitely a problem (his is consistently among the league leaders in swinging at pitches outside the zone). But it is also important to note that he is also among the worst in the league at making contact on strikes. He swings and misses 17% (roughly 1 in 6) of the time on pitches IN THE STRIKE ZONE.
  15. markos
    The problem with trading Dozier right now is finding a buyer. Almost all of the good, contending teams are getting solid production from 2B right now, so there isn't an obvious fit. The best fit is probably KC, and Dozier might be a marginal improvement for Toronto. In a vacuum, it is easy to say that Dozier is worth X. But other teams aren't buying X; they are buying the marginal improvement that X provides over their current Y. And for most teams, X-Y is pretty small and not worth paying a lot for. And I don't understand than consternation that Polanco needs a starting MLB spot right now. Don't get me wrong, he's a good prospect. But he has less that 300 PAs in AAA under his belt, and had a .719 OPS in AA. Maybe his new power is real, or maybe it is a fluky spike. Given the past history of recent callups, hitting well at AAA for a couple hundred at bats should be taken with a grain of salt. My vote is to trade Nunez for whatever either this deadline or during the offseason, keep Dozier a more advantageous trading scenario arrives, and have Polanco as the primary infield backup until Dozier is traded or leaves via FA.
  16. markos
    I think there is a decent argument that Nunez is actually the more valuable player going forward. Nunez is younger, is significantly cheaper, offers the same amount of team control, has more positional flexibility, and has actually out hit Plouffe both last year and this year. Plouffe has the better track record, and when healthy should have more power and better fielding, so it isn't a slam dunk. But I could definitely understand a team willing to play more to get Nunez than Plouffe.
  17. markos
    Sure, but he was still 23 at the time of the trade. I was mostly trying to reframe expectations for a Suzuki (or Plouffe) trade. I read your comment that a C or D prospect would be someone in A-ball who might help the team 4 or 5 years down the road - basically, a 19-year-old with a little upside. I think the more likely return will be a 23-year-old in AA or AAA with (essentially) zero upside. Now, sometimes those zero upside guys actually provide some value (like Escobar). Basically, I don't think anyone should hold it against Ryan if he trades Suzuki and only gets a 24-year-old AA reliever in return. That's generally the market for marginal veterans.
  18. markos
    I think the most likely return for Suzuki is an old, mediocre AAA bullpen arm. Of all the end-of-contract trades over the past few years (Morneau, Liriano, Willingham, Morales, Doumit), the Twins haven't acquired a single player under 22, and the average age was 24.
  19. markos
    Both of them are examples that I was looking for. I think I might have underestimated the chance that Polanco or Kepler would have been selected.
  20. markos
    I was asking specifically about position players.
  21. markos
    I don't follow other organizations close enough to make a serious comparison about this, but it certainly feels like the Twins are overly aggressive with protecting players in the low minors. They protected Kepler and Polanco after the 2013 season when both were just 20 and neither had a single game above low-A. Given how reluctant they have been to play Polanco regularly in the majors, it would certainly be nice to have an additional option year in his back pocket for next season. And this year they protected both Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario when neither had pitched a single inning above low-A. Given their youth and inexperience, it doesn't seem likely that either would have been selected. And Landa in particular, as a full-time reliever at this point, hardly seams like huge loss if he would have be selected by another team. Roster flexibility is so valuable to teams trying to sort out young talent. I know its not exactly this simple, but if I had to pick between Arcia and Landa, I have to think that Arcia has way more future value. Can anyone think of a 21 or younger position player with zero at bats above low A that has been successfully claimed during the Rule 5 draft? I can't come up with anyone. Or is that just because every other team is protecting them as well?
  22. markos
    I completely agree with this assessment. I don't think this organization has realized that the hitting skills that produce box score success in the minors don't necessarily translate to success in the majors. Further, I don't think they make it a priority to develop big league skills at the expense of minor league success.
  23. markos
    I think Polanco's fate will depend more on Nunez than Dozier. If Nunez is traded, it should be easy to keep Polanco on the roster fulltime next year. It might be hard to get him 500 PAs, but they've given Nunez 200+ both of the past two years even with Eduardo Escobar as the primary backup infielder both seasons.
  24. markos
    For the record, I would definitely trade Dozier for a top-100 plus a lottery ticket and just roll with Polanco going forward. I just can't see what team would be interesting in dealing for Dozier right now, particularly at that price. Maybe if one of the rebuilding teams decides to "go for it" next season - think Atlanta or Philly - would a team pay that kind of price for Dozier. Otherwise I think 2B is going to be set for the vast majority of contenders next year. I fairly skeptical that the Twins will be competitive in the next two seasons, but I don't think it is the time to move Dozier at any cost. If he is only going to get a AAA bullpen arm (think Jim Hoey), then I would hang on and hope that he will be more valuable in a different market in the next two seasons. It makes it hard to give Polanco an everyday job, but he should be able to step into the Nunez roll after July 31 and for 2017 if needed.
  25. markos
    Assuming that you put Dozier on the block, what is the minimum level of return to actually move him? Or does that not really factor into the calculations?
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