markos

At the very least Buxton is fouling off more pitches. Overall, his swing rate is basically identical to last year, his chase rate is basically the same, and his swing-and-miss rate is actually higher. The reason he is "seeing more pitches" is because he is fouling off pitches instead of putting the ball in play. Last year, on contact, he was basically 50-50 between fouls and putting the ball in play. So far this season, it has swung to 5-1 in favor of fouls. A good thing? Sure. Sustainable? Who knows. Did I just waste 30 minutes of my day looking up stats that have essentially zero meaning in only 7 PAs? Yep. Worth it? It always is.

That is a good point. I still think he is going to have positive defensive value from his arm; I just don't think he will be 33% better than the next best outfielder.

I agree it is a huge miss. I think +5 is a good guess for this coming year.

That is how projection systems work. The only human work done is to divvy up playing time among the players. Has anyone asked anyone at BP for a comment on that projection?

Two serious and one not-so-serious thoughts about his defensive rating: 1) Maybe they factored into his projection their Buxton fielding ratings and just assumed Buxton would be running over and catching all the fly balls in left as well as center. 2) The vast majority of Rosario's value came from his arm. On a per inning basis, he was more valuable than basically any other outfielder in that category - even better than guys like Cespedes and Gordon. I'm guessing that level of performance isn't exactly sustainable, as either he will stop being so accurate with his throws and more runners will be safe, or runners will just stop trying to take extra bases. Either way his value from his arm is going to go down. 3) Their fielding projection system might still be factoring in his time at 2B in the minors. He was pretty bad in the infield, so it would surprise me if that extrapolated poorly to the outfield - that historically poor fielders at 2B in the minors make poor fielders in a corner OF.

A few quick thoughts from the games (mostly from Saturday's game. Friday's game was mostly spent chasing my toddler around the stadium): DISCLAIMER: Take these thoughts with an extremely large block of salt. I am not a scout, it was just a couple games, exhibition games, and the final exhibition games at that. - Park did not look good at all. Saturday he saw 11 pitches in 3 plate appearances, and he struck out in all three. He swung and missed at 7 pitches, and only fouled off one. All 7 were against off-speed stuff. - Sano didn't get many chances in right field, so it was hard to judge anything there. The only things of interest was one play where ball went into the right-field corner. He was kind of slow/tentative when going after it. It might be worth watching during the season to see how he learns about playing the balls in the corner at a bunch of new stadiums. Not a giant issue, but definitely something that will prevent a few extra bases over the course of the season if he can be more efficient with that play. - Trevor May mostly sat 92-93 on the stadium gun on Saturday, and he appears to be working on an offspeed pitch of some sort. I didn't have the best angle, but he was throwing something in the low-80s (probably changeup) that he wasn't able to get across for strikes. - Danny Santana played some 3rd-base on Saturday. It was a good example of some of the issues with him (beyond batting). First, he had to charge a ball and ended up bobbling/double-clutching and the runner was safe with no throw. Then a couple innings later Trea Turner (who is really fast) tried to bunt for a hit, and Santana made a fantastic bare-hand grab and throw for the out. It was a great defensive play. Another play involved baserunning. He was on first and Arcia was on second. There was a ball in the dirt and Arcia tried to advance to third but was thrown out. Santana stayed at first. Now, I'm not 100% what should have happened there, but I was very surprised that he didn't advance to second when he saw Arcia going to third. Or maybe he wasn't paying attention. Long story short, he showed off his defensive tools as well as his inconsistency and (maybe?) mental errors. - Eddie Rosario hit the ball really hard a couple times on Saturday. I have to admit that I've been very bearish on him for this seasons. But I will gladly eat crow if he continue to perform. He had a bases-loaded triple and also was thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple. - Nolasco was not good. He gave up 4 home runs. I think there might be a "he's in mid-season form" joke in here somewhere. - Arcia has a beautiful swing.

My original plan was to exchange real-life info (name/phone #/email) with anyone interested, but your method sounds a lot simpler.

The Twins are playing two exhibition games against the Nationals in DC this weekend: tonight (4/1) at 6:05pm and tomorrow (4/2) at 12:05pm. Weather permitting, I'll be at both games and would love to meet up with any DC-based Twins fans.

Projection Systems: Steamer: .256 .329 .487 .816 ZIPS: .266 .333 .463 .796 PECOTA: .255 .326 .442 .768 A lot of uncertainty here. My initial thoughts about Park were very negative: - Increasing strikeout and decreasing walk rates the past three years - Overall line last year was buoyed by a .403 BABIP last year (career average ~.320) - Turning 30 this year, so definitely leaving his prime But as the offseason wore on, there was been a lot more positive news. - The projection systems all seem positive. - Dan Farnsworth (scout for Fangraphs) really likes his mechanics and is optimistic. - He has hit okay this spring. The strikeouts - and lack of walks - have been worrisome this spring, but I'm definitely more optimistic now than I was in December. I think Seth's prediction is pretty close to what I would take.

Projection systems: Marcels .272 .368 .497 .865 Steamer .257 .345 .510 .855 ZIPS .249 .337 .491 .828 PECOTA .245 .339 .496 .835 What does everything think Sano's true talent BABIP will be? Last year he had a .396 BABIP, which I don't think is sustainable. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he regularly is in the .320-.340 range.

Projection systems: Marcels .244 .300 .386 .686 Steamer .259 .309 .400 .709 ZIPS .266 .310 .405 .715 PECOTA .253 .309 .401 .710 Please stay healthy.

Projection systems: Marcels .269 .304 .457 .761 ZIPS .256 .287 .415 .702 Steamer .257 .291 .411 .702 PECOTA .250 .280 .402 .682

I would add "without hurting himself," to the first sentence. My second-biggest worry with Buxton is that he is going to be a great player for 120 games a year but always have a stint or two on the DL.

ZIPS .256 .302 .409 .711 Steamer .261 .310 .393 .703 Marcel .250 .270 .444 .715 PECOTA .253 .294 .375 .669 I would take the OVER on Seth's projection. I'm not expecting Escobar to have an OPS below .700 at this point.

ZIPS .252 .315 .427 .742 Steamer .250 .315 .422 .737 Marcel .251 .313 .423 .736 PECOTA .246 .310 .418 .728 Though I'm not as optimistic as Seth, I think I would take the upper end of these projections. Also, I'm kind of expect that he will spend time on the DL. Last year was his first DL-free season, so I expect him to miss a few weeks and play, say, 130 games.

You beat me to it. Here is PECOTA: .279/.360/.387 (.747) I think Seth is a little optimistic (surprise, surprise), but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. It wouldn't take much (maybe a .340 BABIP instead of a .320) for Mauer to reach Seth's .790 OPS projection. I would definitely take the OVER on his .718 OPS from last year, and ... maybe... take the OVER on the ~.745 OPS from the projection systems. But the UNDER on Seth's .790. Regardless, if Mauer can keep his OBP above .330, he should still hit near the top of the lineup. Is it crazy to think he might be the best leadoff guy on the team?

Here is what the projection systems think: ZIPS Suzuki: .253/.305/.334 (.639) Murphy: .245/.295/.379 (.674) Steamer S: .253/.308/.354 (.662) M:.253/.306/.394 (.700) Marcels S: .254/.311/.351 (.663) M: .269/.323/.396 (.719) PECOTA S: .247/.299/.349 (.648) M: .254/.305/.390 (.695) Seth is quite optimistic about Murphy and middle-of-the-pack on Suzuki.

There is a decent chance that moving May to the bullpen - especially in a one-inning, high-leverage role - will permanently end his chances of being an effective starter. Some pitchers have been able to bounce back and forth effectively, but others (ex. Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando) were never able to get go back to starting. I don't expect Ryan to admit that publicly, but I do wonder if they understand that risk internally.

This quote really helps provide a framework for me: celebration=good, disrespect=bad, distinguishing between the two=hard. It is going to be very interesting to see how MLB handles this change - which is definitely happening. For the most part they have been hands-off regarding discipline of any excessive celebration or disrespectful behavior that goes on between teams/players that break the unwritten rules (they have instead trusted the players to police themselves) and haven't really done to much to define the celebration/disrespect dividing line. I wonder if player celebrations get too excessive, distracting or disrespectful that MLB will need to step in and make the unwritten rules written rules, much like the NBA and NFL. Those leagues have rules against specific behavior and have empowered the officials to call penalties/fouls when the players break them. I suspect the MLB will do something similar and attempt to define a line in that gray area between celebration/fun and taunting/disrespect.

I second REPETE's question: what is Hughes's velocity looking like? I have to disagree with the UP assessment of Hughes. For me, the fact that he hasn't gotten a single strikeout - or even a single swing-and-miss - makes it seem like he should be trending down, not up.

The Twins have quietly been very good over the past few seasons at keeping their players healthy: http://www.hardballtimes.com/2015-disabled-list-information-and-a-little-more/ I'm very glad to see that they are exploring new ways to improve player health.

Uberprospects aren't guaranteed anything, but at the same time they are expected to be the players to push the salary expectations forward. Your Sano extension is very close to Rizzo's, even though Rizzo signed his 3 years ago and after a less impressive season. I wouldn't be surprised if Sano got a lot of push back from the player's union on a deal with those parameters.

Farnsworth has received a fair amount of grief for these prospect lists (at least initially), but he had a pretty solid track record of identifying good bats prior to their breakouts (JD Martinez, Jose Abreu, Kang) as well as throwing some cold water on guys like Rusney Castillo. I am taking his Park analysis very seriously.

I was looking at wRC+ and wOBA, both of which indicate that Plouffe was better last year. And by those metrics, Rosario's stats from last year would be Plouffe's fourth best season. Also, I'm definitely not suggesting that they need to get rid of Rosario - I think he would be very useful as a 4th outfielder, pinch runner and defensive replacement.

My reasoning was twofold: 1) I worry that Rosario will struggle at the plate next year. 2) Even if Rosario isn't struggling and manages to duplicate last year's success, it is certainly possible that Plouffe will still outhit him. So if Kepler is crushing it in AAA, I think the odds are that Rosario is the weakest link. Now I can see an argument that a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler outfield with Sano at 3B might be better overall defensively than the Kepler-Buxton-Sano with Plouffe alignment, though a lot depends on how poorly Sano is in right field and how much better (or worse?) he would fair at third.