old nurse

1987 Twins won 85 games during the regular season. Led the division or was only behind in percentage point the whole season. It was a team that won when it needed to. The Phillies on a tear could be a dangerous team in the playoffs. Are they a mediocre team when their star player are injured. If they win it all it does not matter. Can the Cardinals do likewise? They have the starters to do it. Mediocre? Not if you win.

You might want to take a look at what statistics oriented people have said about Twins players/moves and then compare them to the moves the Twins have made this season. In some cases, those projections agree, and both groups have been wrong about different players. I've followed things pretty closely, though, and the Twins management could certainly use more statistical analysis. You don't think the Twins are more interested in the skills of the developing player? Somewhere in the files is all the information charted from the game. They ought to know what pitches the players hit, what they miss. As they go up a level there should be less mistakes to hit. Likewise they know how good they are doing against the better pitchers. That should be what they are basing decisions on. It explains Buxton moving up despite the overall bad statistics in the GCL. If it were only batting line that mattered in the minor leagues, there would be no need to chart games. This year there was a lot of movement upwards midseason. Given the nature of injuries the last two years it would appear that AAA is not being used as much for development from AA as it is tuning up major league experienced players and sorting through to find the extra outfielder, emergency infielder, next arm to trot out of the bullpen, etc. The reluctance to let some of the players go that did not work out has some explanation. One could speculate why, but if someone does not like the answer, you get savaged.

Glen Perkins gave up 22 runs this season. Jeff Gray 34. Roughly 2 runs a MONTH. The whole conversation about Jeff Gray seems silly. Right....because runs and hits are the same thing.... Because the margin of difference between winning and losing in major league baseball is paper thin. Small advantages, or disadvantages, may not be apparent when you view individual games, but add up over the course of 162 games and turn 90 wins into 60 wins. Every roster spot matters, right down to the last man in the bullpen and the last man on the bench. Not as much as front line players, obviously, but they matter. "He's just fine if everyone else does their job," "he won't play much, he doesn't count," and "he'll only pitch innings that don't matter" are three sides of the same poorly reasoned line of thought. Are you really trying to say that Herrmann's potential 8 extra trips to first base, and at this point I'm being generous because I think his slash line would drop jumping from AA to MLB on top of the fact that he'd only be playing a few times a month, is the difference between 90 and 60 wins? How many games do you think the Twins win because of those extra 8 base runners? Of course you also have to think about how many games they lose because of the drop off in defense. In the end I can't see this being anything more than a wash. Without one way above average and two above average starters added to the team, all of the comments about who the 5th outfielder, third string catcher and 11th person in the bullpen is trivial. With no real solution to the pitching forthcoming, that is what is left to discuss, trivial matters.

Interesting thought processes out there. Comparing Hicks and Arcia, two players not even AAA ready at midseason to Clete Thomas. If next year Arcia and Hicks are AA and Thomas is around Shane would have a valid point. Hicks got better as the season progress at hitting AA left handers. Hermann a fine outfielder? Why would you convert him to catcher. As a backup Hermann should be useful, but don't expect a lot. Hitting wise in the minors he put up worse numbers than Clete did at the same levels.

The Twins would be far better off trading pieces away to get starting pitching and using their money to sign replacements for the traded pieces. The current crop of free agents per dollar is as wretched as the Twins staff. In my opinion the Twins would have to overpay for pitching. The second tier free agent will cost in the 9-10 million a year range for 13-14 wins. For the same money you would get a better outfielder/first baseman type, as that is all the Twins really have they can trade. The Twins trade low level prospects for potential help, not as packages. To get a quality pitcher for one of the middle infielders defies logic, but there is always hope that there is another bad trader out there.

What are Hermann's abilities as actually being a cacher, calling a game?

Glunn is spot on here. Voter fraud is a LAUGHABLE joke. It is so so rare. Purging voter registration is a much bigger problem (see Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004). The war on drugs, like the war on crime, and certainly the war on terrorism are all complete shams. They aren't wars to end those problems, they are wars to exacerbate those problems. There is too much money in "corrections" and the military-industrial complex and drug trafficking. The electoral college situation is merely another reason for Americans to demand powerful and broad electoral reform from limited financing to instant run-off voting to proportional electoral vote counts. And yes the poor and middle class will be screwed and they WILL NOT KNOW it. They do not vote in their self-interest, which amazes me. This is not to say that I am a big government fan. If you ever search my name you will find out why. The point is that there is so much manipulation while there is a squashing of real education in this country that effective democracy is completely obsolete. Evidence? That the people still vote for these assclowns again and again and again. I complete agree with Shane Wahl on something. this post

First off, I said overqualified. Benson had very good numbers at New Brittain. They were not good enough to make him an All Star for the Eastern league. All reports I read and can go back and find deal with Benson having an attiude at Rochester. There is no mention of an injury. The hand soreness developed after he was a New Britain and could have well been caused by him punching a wall yet again. His performance with a bat at Rochester was poor. 100 plate appearance is an adequate sample size to give him a chance to work it out. Your comment about 'Benson having an attitude at Rochester' is not an accurate description of what I understand the problem was. This statement tells me he was a problem and 'having an attitude' would indicate something negative. To discuss the problem, one needs to begin with discussing Benson's very competitive nature. The problem at Rochester as I have heard from their announcers and people writing in the Democrat and Chronicle was that his competitive nature combined with an early slump caused him to get very down on himself as he tried to improve his results, ie, he was putting tremendous pressure on himself to do better. To me, that is not an attitute problem. Perhaps to you it is. He dealt with two injuries this year. The hand injury was not soreness, it was a broken hamate bone which required surgery. Again referring to local writers, they referred to a specific game when it happened. Making a statement about 'him punching a wall yet again" is throwing things out on the internet that just should not be there. If you have something to support such a claim, please let us know where it came from. As for not being injured at Rochester, we don't know if that is true. We know when his hand was injured and that was after he was demoted to New Britain. He later had knee surgery. I have not seen anything telling us about when his knee was injured, perhaps Seth knows more. What I can gather is that it was something he was dealing with and the doctors went in to clean it out. When in surgery, they found it was more serious than they thought and instead of being a few week recovery he was shut down for at least four months. Without knowing exactly what was involved with the surgery, it appears he had been dealing with a knee problem for some time which may, or may not, have been present while in Rochester and may, or may not, have affected his play. Twins Daily is an exciting and wildly successful blog with tremendous readership. Please don't put things out there that are merely speculation. Again, if you have specific information supporting your position please provide it so we all will know more about what really happened to a very talented and athletic young man. Getting down on yourself because you are not performing well and saying it is because you are so competitive is an attitude problem. Many people on this board read a slash line, never see a player play and call management stupid for the handling of the players. Through the year the Twins do promote players that are playing well despite what the statistics oriented people think. Look it up. So why didn't they move up Benson last year midseason when they moved him up midseason before? You can speculate and call the Twins stupid. You could speculate the Twins saw a hole in his game that got exposed with a call up the next year. Competitive nature or used to being better than everyone else? No story mentioned what he did to try to make himself better, only that he got down on himself. The story was his mindset or attitude. Call it what you want. Hand soreness is the listed reason they took him out of the lineup at New Brittain. No cause listed as to why there was hand soreness like being hit with a pitch. Yes your hand will be very sore with a broken bone in it. That is what they discover investigating the hand soreness. When it is a game caused injury, it is listed. There are people who track these things. There was no injury listed. Past behavior has been reported. If people on this board did not put speculative ideas out there there would not be much out here. When you agree with it, you call it analysis.

Well perhaps that goes back to developing too slowly . . . The Twins approach with Parmelee and Benson was fine up until 2011 when they both should have gotten a taste of Rochester. Hicks' movement through has been good. Arcia's movement is much better. They could have kept him in Fort Myers for the whole year in the name of proper development and "seasoning" but they rightly didn't. Joe Benson's cumulative at New Britain in 2011 was not so great as to say he was overqualified to be there. His 28 games at Rochester this year showed he did not belong there this year. Prior to 2011 he moved through a couple of levels every year. Developed too slowly? Don't think so. In 472 plate appearances in 2011 at New Britain: .285/.388/.495, 28 doubles, 3 triples, 16 homers. Not sure what on earth you are talking about. Between 2010 and 2011 he had 900 damn plate appearances at New Britain with 39 homers and an OPS around .874. So, again, I don't know what you are talking about. With regard to Rochester in 2012, first he was injured, second he has 108 plate appearances. The appropriate decision was to let him overcome struggles in AAA. AAA still is the closest to the majors. He's a top prospect . . . demoting back to a level where he was great at for 900 plate appearances prior to 2012 is terribly stupid. First off, I said overqualified. Benson had very good numbers at New Brittain. They were not good enough to make him an All Star for the Eastern league. All reports I read and can go back and find deal with Benson having an attiude at Rochester. There is no mention of an injury. The hand soreness developed after he was a New Britain and could have well been caused by him punching a wall yet again. His performance with a bat at Rochester was poor. 100 plate appearance is an adequate sample size to give him a chance to work it out.

Well perhaps that goes back to developing too slowly . . . The Twins approach with Parmelee and Benson was fine up until 2011 when they both should have gotten a taste of Rochester. Hicks' movement through has been good. Arcia's movement is much better. They could have kept him in Fort Myers for the whole year in the name of proper development and "seasoning" but they rightly didn't. Joe Benson's cumulative at New Britain in 2011 was not so great as to say he was overqualified to be there. His 28 games at Rochester this year showed he did not belong there this year. Prior to 2011 he moved through a couple of levels every year. Developed too slowly? Don't think so.

This is true if you also think that a team playing with a 24 man roster (often 23 because of the "day-to-days" ) against teams with 25 men, does not matter much The 25'th person on the roster would matter on playng other teams when they have a number 1-4 starter and the Twins do not.

DeVries has pitched more than one game against several teams. DeVries continues to put up quality starts. Same for Deduno. There is no need to go out and sign a 4/5 starter as they continue to perform. DeVries is well below league average on bb/9 so he definitely pitches the Twin's way.

Part of my problem with how we run the minor leagues. We NEVER have a young player that succeeds in the majors .....EVER. Justin was 26, Hunter 26, Span 25, etc. Players are not given the propere instuction to be up at a young age & MN is NOT goin to give them that time during the majors. How many teams go with young players, but not MN. We love the 25yr old Pedro Florimon/Brian Dozier, 31yr old Matt Carson type of rookies cause they DONT push their younger guys (who KNOW they have no shot of reaching the majors till 24/25) Yep. Repeat seasons at Beloit and New Britain are the big killers besides being slow as hell to promote to Beloit in the first place. Arcia's trajectory is great, though. Benson and Parmelee were ok, Hicks is good, and Revere's was a forced move (and a mistake in 2011, certainly). Again, as I have said a bunch of times, there was a study of minor league PAs and IPs and through 2010 the Twins were the slowest promoters in baseball for position players and top 3-4 in slowness for pitchers. This has changed somewhat thanks to Revere and even Parmelee, but it remains true that something is just off. Getting legitimate prospects up at 25 or higher for the first time is a WASTE of time, namely the 23-25 years. The recent statistic for slowness may be indisputable, but the reason is disputable. Are they poor at developing prospects or are they poor at picking prospect?. The latter would account for the slow development times. True talent will rise, see Arcia as the best recent example. You cite Revere and Pamalee's rise. Mauer rose quickly as have others. Talent will rise through the Twin's system, they just have to do a better job of picking it. The last draft had plenty of players shuffled up a level.

Both should have been moved to Fort Myers in early August. And they should both be there for most of the 2013 season until an August promotion (assuming all goes as expected) to New Britain. But alas . . . the Twins think that the low A-to-high A promotion isn't worth it for even the BEST prospects. They were wise with Arcia, but not with Sano and Rosario. If Sano and Rosario were outfielders you would have a case. Neither is very accomplished as an infielder. Are you forgetting or ignoring the defensive half of paying baseball?

@DPJ Your flawed thinking is what I am talking about. You do not seem able to observe that history repeats itself. Teams have won in the past with less than perfect teams. Baltimore this year, the 1987, 2003, and 2009 Twins are examples of that. Baltimore patchedworked a staff this year that allows them the chance to win, just as the Twins have done in those years. In terms of what the other teams do, it is a variable you can't control. They could add like Detroit did last year. It is not working, Did Chicago find stability finally? Don't know. Just as you don't know if the Twins make astute additions that they can't contend. Short term fix while they figure out how to rebuild a pitching pipeline. a potential 20 plus improvement in games won is a little more than luck.

Neither of us know what's gonna happen with either teams roster. Maybe Mike Ilitch loses his mind again and signs everyone, who knows what to expect outta the Sox and Kenny WIlliams. The point is I don't see how bringing up 2003, 2009 seasons or current stats has to do with this. Do I think it's impossible...no, but do I see it happen...**** no!! If I read your logic correctly I would assume the following. Nothing that anybody does before makes any difference going forward. Don't pay any attention whatsoever to what was done before because you can't replicate those conditions. Past performance and history makes no difference for the future. It is not a well managed team of mediocre talent playing well, it is blind luck that the Orioles will win about 20 more games than last year. For the Twins going forward then it would not pay for them to sign a stopgap free agent like Willingham to bridge until the next wave of outfielders come up, nor would it have made sense to sign a Floriman or a Deduno to a contract. I don't think a team you would run would be very successful

There is no such thing as sustained luck. The 87 Twins had a negative run differential. They found ways to win when they needed to. What the Orioles are doing now as a formula for success is not for the long term. Nowhere in the article does it say it is for the long term. Right now I really doubt that many Twins fans are concerned about the long term success as much as they are avoiding another decade of failure. Small and mid sized market teams need to have continued player development and not have their stars signed to long term contracts have issues.

Another outing like tonight's should remove any doubt about Perdomo's future.

I think they guy really thinks there are Twins players that would net mutiple B prospects. I think he was trying to find people that think like him.

The Red Sox are more likely to shop for players in their fifth or sixth year that the small market teams can't afford.. They will hope for better success than they did with Gonzales. A contract like Mauer's would only make sense if was the final piece to a championship. If Mauer wanted to waive a no trade contract it would not be to a team in Boston's current situation.

Try some other comparison if similar players in playing in the systems actually make it to the major league. The goal is developing a major league talent. If you can find similar players that did not develop under the Twins but did in other systems you might have an argument.

No Twin player on the major league roster will get you a "haul". Overpriced or aging players do not get you a haul. Above average outfielders do not get you a haul. At best in a straight up trade any Twin player will get you a b- prospect. If you are paying part of the contract, then you are buying the prospect.

Two earlier clunker starts have pushed his season ERA higher. Of the pitchers currently on the roster not named Diamond, he has the most quality starts. He has earned a scholarship for next year. Maybe scouting will catch up to him but it has not been so. The league has seen him for half a season. The scouts know what he can throw. He would appear to know how to pitch.

Greg Maddux, Cole DeVries, and Luis Perdomo are all listed as the same size and throw right handed. They all throw the same baseball with very different results. If someone knew the why of it they could make a lot of money being a coach.

Look at all the numbers you want to spin what you want, but you have to consider the conditions in which the numbers were generated. If in 2011 Gibson was playing slightly injured to total wreck, then any statistics about him for that year are worthless. 2012 is about rehab. 3 starts in 2010 is not a large enough sample size. Whatever really. Check his pure healthy AA numbers. As far as other Twins' pitchers go, his success in the minors has been very limited. Here are Kevin Slowey's MiLB numbers, here are Glen Perkins', here are Nick Blackburn's. Compare those with Gibson's. We all know how all those 3 turned out as starters in the majors. And Slowey's numbers were hideous in the minors. Gibson's are at the Blackburn scale. just sayin' Gibson is reported to have a little bit faster fastball than Slowey or Blackburn. A little better movement, too. Again, arguments with numbers. Is a 16 game, 51 inning season at AA a large enough sample size to determine ability at that level to compare it to others? Here is a former Twin's A season in a minor league. Statistically much worse than Slowey at a comparable level. Younger than Slowey by a year for the same level, but close enough. [TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center][/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center] [/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]W[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]L[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]W-L%[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]ERA[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]G[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]GS[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]GF[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]CG[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]SHO[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]SV[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]IP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center] H[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]R[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]ER[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]HR[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]BB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]IBB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]SO[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]HBP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]BK[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]WP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]BF[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center][/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]WHIP[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]H/9[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]HR/9[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]BB/9[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center]SO/9[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center] SO/BB[/TH] [TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, bgcolor: #DADCDE, align: center][/TH] [TR=class: minors_table] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TD][/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: sortable stats_table] [TR=class: blank_table partial_table, bgcolor: #DADCDE] [/TR] [TR=class: full] [TD=align: left] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right].500[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.14[/TD] [TD=align: right] 27[/TD] [TD=align: right] 26[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right] 1[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [TD=align: right] 160.1[/TD] [TD=align: right]162[/TD] [TD=align: right]94[/TD] [TD=align: right]83[/TD] [TD=align: right]14[/TD] [TD=align: right] 55[/TD] [TD=align: right] 0[/TD] [TD=align: right] 150[/TD] [TD=align: right] 10[/TD] [TD=align: right] 1[/TD] [TD=align: right] 10[/TD] [TD=align: right]688[/TD] [TD=align: right] 1.315[/TD] [TD=align: right]9.1[/TD] [TD=align: right] 0.8[/TD] [TD=align: right] 3.1[/TD] [TD=align: right] 8.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.73[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: blank_table partial_table, bgcolor: #DADCDE] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The next year this pitcher was in the major leagues. Pretty much stayed there, too. It isn't the numbers per se, it is the talent. Perkins for his talent is better suited as a reliever. What is Gibson's talent going to be? We don't know. Development in baseball isn't always reflected in their minor league statistics. If Gibson can go on and have a better career than the former Twin, that would be great, but not likely.