70charger

Quite interested in this. Seems like a great idea, honestly.

I do. These stats are stochastic. Who would you rather have? A pitcher who is consistently excellent for 50 outings minus 2 or 3 blowups and who ends up with mediocre stats, the worst of which are bunched into those 2 or 3 games? Or a pitcher who is consistently mediocre for 50 games and ends up with mediocre stats because he's mediocre? I know who I'm picking. Edit: Also, was the "I'm willing to give a free pass" a pun on his walks? If so it totally went over my head the first time. Well done.

They had a segment on the betting lines on a recent Gleeman and the Geek. I think the highest they saw at one particular casino in Vegas was 100:1, which I'd do because what the hell, why not? More typical was something like 40 or 50, I think. These things do have a tendency to change pretty regularly, though.

He's got one, and even if he decided to give a hometown discount, it had better be pretty damn steep given the middle infield talent we have waiting in the wings, combined with my natural wariness at extending a second baseman until he's 36.

If Brandon Weeden tells us anything, you're probably right. But if Brandon Weeden tells us anything, he's probably best grinding it out in baseball for another year or two. He's got the pedigree. The Twins would love nothing more than Stewart making the the MLB. Even - especially - the new front office. But if it won't happen, it won't happen. Take a big step forward in 2018, Kohl Stewart, and you're on the 25 man in a cinch. This year, I'm not sure you're sticking with any team.

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John Lackey is a bad person and a bad teammate. I don't care if he's free. Hard pass.

Can we have him scratch out the part that says "Second Base" and give it to Mauer? I kid (a little). Congratulations to him.

I agree, leaving the amount of regression predicted by the models aside. How do you "expect" a defensive performance like Buxton's? It is certainly unreasonable to expect transcendent every year. That said, if Buxton's peak was 2017, his (healthy) decline should still be pretty impressive, and I'll be happy to watch it.

Their algorithm must bake in regression to the mean, and since 1) he's so young and doesn't have much of a year-over-year track record, and/or 2) his numbers are such outliers compared to the rest of the league, that regression looks pretty severe. I like the stats as much as the next guy, but we're pushing toward the fat tails of the bell curve with Buxton's defense, and things are just going to be more volatile than an algorithm that works for 90% of the rest of the league. So I get why it's happening, but if you're a Buxton fan, I wouldn't let it worry you too much.

Deals with the angry parents whose kids sit on the bench. I've heard Mrs. Garver is quite formidable.

He’s very well-spoken, isn’t he? I enjoyed that.

I'm really excited to see what Benninghoff can do. He's one of those guys you gamble with after the 10th round if you've got the pool money to do it. He got mid-third round money, so there's got to be some real projection there.

I think Escobar just got some job security.

Your counterpoint is a catcher? Who was, by all internal accounts, defensively excellent?

Unless his bat plays in the majors right damn now you don't add him. He has no positional value, he's not a pitcher you can stash in the bullpen, and you can't hide him as anything other than a black hole in your offensive lineup. I doubt there's a team that bites on his bat being major league ready. Even if they do, I doubt he lasts a season.

As long as the loss would be to Houston...

Obviously a business decision. And a big thank you to Perk from Twins fans everywhere.

My man.

Well then we are probably more or less in agreement. Should we argue about something else, then? Uhh... red enchiladas or green?

I agree that we should not be going into next season with the same situation. Go sign, say, two very solid shutdown types. I just want to pedantically argue, because iit is an Internet forum, about your characterizations of some of the guys you mentioned. "Curtiss? He was terrible in his call up." Eh, not really. Sure, his ERA was tragic, but His FIP was about half of what his ERA was, and he only had 10 appearances, so it's not like the numbers have stabilized. Also, his WHIP was 1.26 (which is almost identical to the career WHIP of the Twins' closer for most of the year, FWIW), and his strikeout rate was around 10K/9IP. I actually think he's a great candidate to take that step forward next year. "Hildenburger? He's more of a solid Neshek type of guy, not a closer." I think you're underrating Neshek. Compare him to the guy who closed most of the year for the Twins, and he's better in basically every single category. The only reason Kintzler has more saves than Neshek is that the Twins didn't employ Neshek (or, by extension, anyone better suited to the role) last season. "Busenitz? He was pretty good but is also 27 and did absolutely nothing up until this year" He had a WHIP under 1.00 in half a season in the majors. 26 years old (he was 26 this season, by the way) for relievers doesn't mean anything to me. Going back to Neshek, take a look at when he debuted in the majors. Looks like he was 25, turning 26 that same September. Age doesn't seem to be nearly the same concern for relievers, especially ones under team control at serf salaries. Busenitz will probably regress a bit, along with his sub-2.00 ERA, but I don't see why he's not a candidate to be a solid bullpen member next year. Am I off base here? I think the Twins have solid options, without even relying on the sick bay that is our minor leagues. The cupboard isn't bare. Just put a couple of top guys at the back end of this pen and I think we're good to go.

Duensing, mainly for the trade proposals.

Here, you dropped this: "/s"

We had discussed before on this board the idea that the Twins' best chance against Severino might be patience, running up the pitch count, and knocking him out early. Seems like Grossman has a good chance of doing that, since his game is strike zone control, and he sees a lot of pitches. For what it's worth, he's also got better numbers against righties than lefties this year. I'd still have liked to have Sano at least on the bench for intimidation purposes - an eleventh pitcher just seems unnecessary - but I really don't think it would be a no-brainer to play him over Grossman in his current condition.

I always just assumed ¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿ was Australian.