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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    I think previous posters have pretty well covered the options. I will just say that I think one of the guys at Elizabethton or GCL (other than Stewart obviously) will become a very highly regarded prospect getting into the top 100 prospect conversation at some point. That said my guess is it won't be until after Cedar Rapids or Fort Meyer. Unless you're a big name international or draft pick it takes a while to get noticed.
  2. Oxtung
    Major League Leaderboards » 2013 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball There is a list of rookies in the last 40 years who have over 300 PA and a wOBA close to Hicks. You'll notice #5 is our esteemed Ronald Gardenhire! Those aren't inspiring names. Let's all hope Hicks can succeed where many of those listed failed. Cameron actually had a pretty good rookie season, Hunter, while struggling was significantly better than Hicks has been. Gomez was pretty poor in his rookie season, though he only got 139 PA's. If you compare Gomez to Hicks' first 139 PA's, Gomez is significantly better than Hicks. Similarly if you compare Hicks' season with Gomez's first full season, Gomez is again significantly better. Hicks has been really, really bad. There is no way around it. Here is to hoping next year goes better!
  3. Oxtung
    Twenty something days.
  4. Oxtung
    Pushing players to the majors just to get them there seems to be a poor developmental path. Going young is fine, if the guys are ready for it but there is no way to know that from the outside looking in.
  5. Oxtung
    Seth do you consider rookie ball pitchers? If yes, do you differentiate between Elizabethton and GCL since GCL pitchers don't throw near as many innings? I imagine that a few of Jorge, Thorpe, Landa, Rosario, et al have put up similar numbers to the pitchers above.
  6. Oxtung
    Nobody worth watching where? Both those teams have pitching Talent. That's right....Talent with a capital T. Elizabethton Felix Jorge Yorman Landa Randy Rosario Ryan Eades GCL Lewis Thorpe Kohl Stewart Stephen Gonsalves Fernando Romero Luke Bard
  7. Oxtung
    According to ESPN's SoS analysis: 2011: .503 2012: .500 2013: .505 So relatively comparable to this point.
  8. Oxtung
    The Twins starting rotation has 4 of the 6 worst starting pitchers in the Central by ERA. That is packaging Gibson, Hernandez, Walters and Worley as only 1 pitcher and counting Deduno as a starter even though he has only made 12 starts this season. Correia, the Twins second best pitcher, would not start in Detroit, Cleveland or Chicago. Blech....
  9. Oxtung
    I, just like everyone in this discussion, have made some underlying assumptions based on how I perceive the future playing out. For me I don't see the Twins being competitive in 2014 (another 90 loss season), 2015 I think they'll be around .500 and in 2016 we potentially start our window of contention. Of course this all assumes that the prospects pan out. It is entirely possible that we become the Royals and have to restart the rebuild 4 years from now. As such I don't believe Perkins is as valuable an asset as an everyday player or starting pitcher. Since he is likely to decline in production and his contract will only lose value moving forward I see no reason to keep him. I would trade him for the best offer I could find. I would probably also not limit the return to just pitchers, though it would be preferable. Every prospect added increases the probability of the Twins returning to contention in the future.
  10. Oxtung
    When do you think the Twins will have a >30% chance of winning the division?
  11. Oxtung
    If he isn't going back down once he comes up then what does it matter if he burns an option year in 2014? There are no bonus points for players with options left at the end of their career. I think it is more likely that Sano gets called up at some point in 2014, plays poorly and is sent back to AAA for a time burning an option year anyway. The jump from AAA to the majors is a large one for both elite and not elite prospects. Arcia has been sent down, Hicks should have been sent down if there was anyone to man CF and Gibson looks like he will need to be depending on how his innings limit turns out.
  12. Oxtung
    Perkins is ripe for regression. It is very rare for relievers to maintain elite levels for many years. So yes, Perkins could be traded in future years, but it would likely be for a lesser package of prospects. Perkins value will never be higher than it currently is.
  13. Oxtung
    So it's been a month now and I was wondering how his K% and babip have started to play out. I think it will be interesting to track this as we go along.[TABLE=class: grid, width: 450] [/TD][TD]PA K's K% babip Avg April-June 315 60 19% .399 .330 July 105 17 16.2% .373 .308 [/TABLE] Joe has seen an almost 3% drop in his K rate this month along with a 26 point drop in his babip leading to a 22 point drop in his batting average. Mauer still had a fantastic babip rate since the original post in June but, unfortunately, he still carried over the higher than average K%. At this point it seems his drop in babip has had more of an effect than his drop in K% on his batting average. It will be interesting to track this going forward.
  14. Oxtung
    I've never really understood this philosophy. Just to flesh this out a bit, why would you want a #3 starter from 2016-2022 instead of a #1 starter from 2019-2025? Either way you get 6 (or 7) years of control. I understand that is a simplified view and nothing is that cut and dry but that seems to be the general argument being made and I've just never understood it.
  15. Oxtung
    2014 would still be an option year either way. The only way it matters is if, as you mention, he gets hurt and misses significant time or if the Twins don't plan on him making the majors until September 2014. IMO both are unlikely and a September call up this year, assuming he picks up the pace at AA, is within the realm of possibility and certainly wouldn't be irresponsible.
  16. Oxtung
    Agreed he probably couldn't even with a prospect back. Many people have stated they want a top prospect in return for Perkins and I'm just trying to hammer down what that means exactly.
  17. Oxtung
    Was Berrios held back this season in EST because of an innings limitation or because he pitched relief in the WBC and then had to be stretched out to start delaying his debut?
  18. Oxtung
    Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying: Pirates Prospects » Previewing the September Call-Ups
  19. Oxtung
    I think you're looking at this all wrong. Cross isn't looking at relievers as whole, from my understanding having not read the whole piece. Instead he is stating that Perkins is elite, young and healthy currently. He is just showing that as these kinds of pitchers age there is a high probability that they will get injured or no longer be elite. He is simply using this as a way to say the Twins should strike while the iron is hot.
  20. Oxtung
    That is a very interesting question. Perkins isn't likely to bring back a healthy arm like Bundy's who made it from HS to the majors in just 1 season and has a fastball that sits mid 90's and touches 98-100. He was a top 10 prospect in baseball before the injury. On the other hand there is significant risk with TJ surgery and at this point Bundy is only 1 month removed from the knife. Would people want the Twins to take a risk on Bundy's elite but injured arm? I think I would say yes.
  21. Oxtung
    Guthrie has been a better pitcher than Pelfrey. He's had WHIP as low as 1.161, hasn't had TJ surgery and had 6 straight seasons as an innings eater before signing his contract. His ERA+, at 102 for his career, has been much better than Pelfrey's He also signed with the Royals who were in "win now" mode which the Twins certainly are not.
  22. Oxtung
    I am certainly not a Nats aficionado so perhaps I am unaware of something but I don't think Duensing is a fit. The Nats have two left handed RPs. ERA's 1.61 and 2.12. Both have K/9 >7.9. On the other hand they have 2 right handed relievers that are struggling.
  23. Oxtung
    Do you think that Pelfrey is going to learn to throw a knuckleball?
  24. Oxtung
    I think the additional revenue will result in higher yearly salaries not additional years. As such perhaps Pelfrey will make $8M/year but still only get a 1-2 year deal (assuming of course he continues his 3.5ish ERA). Prime or not Pelfrey hasn't been a good pitcher. He's had a couple of good years as you point out but his other years have been really bad. He's had ERA+ of 81, 78 and 81(so far this year). He's never had a WHIP below 1.36 and his K/BB rate is 1.62 for his career. None of that screams "lock me up!!!" He is what he is, a 4/5th starter that will, hopefully, eat innings. Those guys don't get long term contracts. In short, half a season of good pitching wouldn't outweigh 4 seasons of mediocrity.
  25. Oxtung
    I'm amazed that people think Mike Pelfrey is going to get a 3 year guaranteed contract let alone people wanting the Twins to be the one offering. Even when healthy he isn't a particularly good pitcher. I would trade Pelfrey for anything you could get in return and if it isn't obvious by now I would advocate signing a pitcher with actual upside this upcoming off season. Since we know that isn't going to happen I don't care what the Twins do with Pelfrey as long as it isn't a 3 year deal. I vomited a bit in my mouth just now thinking about it.
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