Oxtung

Are you really making the argument here that drew Butera and $150k in salary is more valuable than Justin Morneau is free of charge? I can't believe that is true. At a bare minimum the twins could get back some A-ball flier. That to me is worth more than 30 days of Morneau at the end of a lost season where potential replacements are already sitting on the bench. Major League- the problem with your theory is that every day that Ryan holds onto Morneau he loses value. At this point the only things that can change his value in a positive manner is an injury. The chances of that seem unlikely. Look at I this way. If you were trying to acquire 60 days of Justin Morneau and offered up "Prospect A" and the Twins said no but came back to you a month later, now only 30 days of Justin remain, and said well we've reconsidered we'll take "Prospect A" now. Would you still give him up? I sure wouldn't. Many of you also said we just hold to Morneau because the return isn't good enough. How does that help the Twins return to the top of the division?

But their return in production is decreasing at the same rate. So in the end it is a wash. Waiting until close to the deadline does not change the ROI in a trade. At this point the only change will be an external one. Injury, odds of contention, etc... Other teams spend most if not all of their budget to sign players to begin the season. Perhaps a small portion is withheld for a deadline trade but the vast majority is spent. That said, the Twins aren't really cheap in this instance. If they were cheap the Twins would pay the absolute minimum and move Morneau for the salary relief. I do think the Twins are overvaluing Morneau's, well I don't know what they're overvaluing but something, otherwise he would be moved for the best package available. It's clear they believe there is a benefit derived by having Morneau on this team for another 35ish games. I'll be damned if I can figure out what that is though.

If you want top of the line statisticians it would be considerably more than "a million" for "a team" of them. In the world of finance these guys can make big bucks. As professors they typically make a little less but have other benefits. Your point is still valid though, the Astros pay their Decision Sciences division considerably less than their players and that is a very small amount in the ocean that is MLB.

I think you're misunderstanding what top level statisticians do. My friend would look at a problem where there is no direct data available, if there is direct data available then you don't need him, and he would create a model to predict a solution to that problem. For instance, there is real no data on arm injuries. He would create a model that would allow teams to predict the probabilities of how a particular player's delivery will impact his career 5, 10 years after being drafted. It's "easy" to take known data to make a prediction. Highly accomplished statisticians will make a prediction where no or limited data is available.

1) I don't believe his attitude has much bearing on whether he is ready to continue his development at the major league level. If that was the deciding factor then he probably should have just signed a major league contract at 16 and this would have been solved long ago. 2-3) You answered these questions by basically saying "I believe ...." with out giving any reasons why you believe. There is some underlying reason I'm guessing and not just a gut feeling.

K% and BB% are currently usually defined as per plate appearance, not per at bat. I think that is where your disagreement lies. When you look per plate appearance he is at 28.3%. Somebody once mentioned, and I can't remember who it was on this board, that Fangraphs used to define % per AB but switched to per PA at some point in the recent past.

Your point is well taken about OPS versus more component specific stats. Still, let's take K% to look at his contact rate. He is striking out at a rate of 28.3% right now in AA (yes I'm sure that's coming down from his rough early stretch) that is approaching a dangerous level of strikeouts. Even for sluggers there is a point at which the strikeout rate becomes prohibitive to their over all value. So, 28%, what does that tell you? Is he having trouble with breaking pitches? Is it fastballs up? Is he caught looking because he's too patient? Before a judgement can be made on how he will handle major league pitching one must first know the cause of the problem and that is something we just don't have available to us, unless you are aware of much more detailed statistics for the minor leagues than I am. Let's look at BB%. Is he walking at a good clip because minor league pitchers are scared to throw him strikes? Or does he actually have a good eye at the plate? Both? Again, the statistics I have don't have that kind of precision. Is his babip high because he crushes balls and therefore more gets through for hits or because he's just been lucky? How will he handle failure, because it is guaranteed at some point in the majors? Is he mature enough to handle the fame that is going to follow his ascension? As soon as he is called up he will be front page news on ESPN (perhaps not for a Sept call up but he will be when he gets called up next season). Statistics can tell you quite a bit especially with major league players that have years of detailed track records. I think that if the underlying data were available the entire game of baseball could be described using probabilities, but that data doesn't exist at the minor league level, at least that I am aware of. Perhaps you know where to find it?

What database? Do you think that the Astro's decision sciences division just spend all day on Fangraphs? Teams that are pushing the envelope are hiring professors from Ivy League schools. You don't do that to just look at stuff publicly available. Teams, like the Astros, are trying to create their own metrics and databases that they can then use as an advantage versus teams, like the Twins, that don't have the desire or ability to push the envelope. My best friend is a professor of statistics at a very highly regarded school. I asked him once what he thought about statistics in baseball, his response was, "What statistics in baseball?" He thought that what was publicly available, and he has attended lectures and seminars on baseball statistics, was so elementary that it should hardly be considered statistics. Teams looking for a competitive edge are going to be pushing this field creating their own, much more sophisticated models, and we will not see them for quite a while. Don't let that fool you into thinking that what you and I have available is the pinnacle of Sabrmetrics.

You are certainly right that his K rate is not a problem for national analysts and even for the Twins at this point since they keep promoting him. I wonder if that changes when he gets to the majors though. Arcia has seemingly been benched a couple of times after he strikes out a bunch.

Nice article! I wonder how that power has translated to the majors. I assume it transfers well but it would be interesting to have a more objective look if you're searching for another pet project.

In order for there to be a rebuttal we have to be at odds. Since I haven't taken a position on whether Sano is ready to face major league pitchers (yes I know you don't like this phrase) how could I be rebutting you? Since you didn't like my previous vocubulary, why do you think that Sano is ready to continue his development at the major league level? Why do you think Sano is the best 3B in the organization? Why does he give the Twins the best chance to win in September?

I agree with everything you've said here. I think you and I were just talking past one another when in reality we were trying to say the same things. I would guess that there are prospects that have waited too long and failed because of it. Laws of probability and all. For the same reason I also think there are prospects that have failed because they've been pushed too fast. I don't have a clue who those are because, as you said, we don't have time machines. If the Twins choose to hand Sano the reigns to 3B to start 2014, great! If they decide he needs some time at AAA, ok no problem. Let me know when he's ready.

Let me try a different tack. Why do you believe that Sano is ready to be called up to the majors?

Again, I'm not arguing he isn't ready. My point is not I, and I would guess you, have any direct knowledge of if he is ready or not. People pushing for his advancement in this thread seem to be wanting him pushed because they look at his stats, his placement as a prospect or a couple of quotes and assume they know everything there is to know. In a perfect world those would be enough to judge a prospect. We could just slot him in at 3B and call it good for the next decade. But reality is not that neat. Just because a prospect puts up impressive numbers doesn't mean he is ready. Vernon Wells seems to be a pretty good comp here. He started his age 20 season at A+ FSL where he OPSed .946. He was promoted to AA where he OPSed .919 which earned him a promotion to the International League and AAA. After posting a .837 OPS there he got a September callup to Toronto where he put up an .646 OPS in 24 games. Beginning his age 21 season he was ranked by BA as the #4 prospect. He hardly played in the majors over the next two seasons and wouldn't be an everyday player until 23. Even then he OPSed .762 which, while decent, is not destroying the league. It wasn't until he was 24, 4 years after his first taste of the majors, that Wells put up a great season OPSing .909. Here was a player the same age, played in the same leagues and put up almost the same numbers. He was called up and it was determined he wasn't ready. And he wouldn't be for another 4 years. Even though his stats and prospect rankings said he was ready he still had things to work on and improve on before he could conquer the majors. The only people who know if Sano has holes in his game are the Minnesota Twins. Maybe he is ready, in which case great that will be exciting, but maybe, despite his lofty status and great stats, he still has holes in his game like Wells that need to be ironed out so that when his time comes he can dominate. Ultimately that is what we all want, Miguel Cabrera part two.

Actually what was being discussed is if Sano is ready for the majors. My point has been, he might be or he might not be, but I certainly don't know that from 1000 miles away looking at box scores and reading a few quotes. The only ones with that kind of knowledge are the Minnesota Twins. They haven't been perfect with predictions, this is where Hick's comes in, but they are still the only ones with the requisite information to make the determination. Elite prospects can succeed, you pointed out several, but being elite is no guarantee. I submit, according to Baseball America, #1 prospect Delmon Young, #3 Jesus Montero and #9 Mike Moustakas. Claiming that Sano is "an elite prospect with success at every level" means nothing when it comes to the majors. The pitchers there don't care. Let's look at Delmon Young's minor league statistics. A- .926 OPS as an 18 year old. AA - .968 OPS as a 19 year old. AAA- .814 OPS as a 20 year old in half season before being called up. Delmon hit better at every step so far and was a year younger. Sano could be Machado or Moustakas. We don't know. The difference between the two lies in the intangibles, those things that I have no access to. It isn't about trusting the Twins, it's that there is no way I could know if Sano is ready. Literally no way.

So you think that 37 games of Morneau is better than a chance to help the team in 2015+? I guess that is where I disagree. I'll take whatever has a chance to help this team become competitive. That isn't Morneau at this point.

You are absolutely right that they can. It's also true that top prospects, like Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Jesus Montero or Mike Moustakas, can struggle. It doesn't matter how highly they are ranked, it is a big jump to the majors. Moving prospects up the ladder is less about their statistics and more about the intangibles. How does his swing look? How is his footwork defensively. Will he be able to handle failure and learn from it? Will he be able to handle success? There are many questions that need to be answered and most of them aren't found in a box score. The only ones who can offer an educated guess are those with personal knowledge of Senor Sano. The Twins aren't always correct, Mr. Hicks says hi, but they are still in the best position to make the decision.

Do you mean Chris Herrmann? I haven't seen Hermsen pitch in a while but that would be quite the transformation!

Even you seem to think that Justin isn't a part of our long term solution. What is the point of a multi year deal? There will be similar options, some perhaps a bit better some perhaps a bit worse but similar none the less, available this off season for 1 year deals. There is no need to sign Morneau to a multi-year deal, even if it is for just 2 years. So if you want to go to 2+ years what advantage does that bring to the Twins?

Jon Morosi at FOX Sports has another article up stating money is the sticking point. I'm not sure why this is such a hard thing to see. If there was demand and money wasn't an issue than he would have been claimed. Since he made it through waivers than we know teams don't want to pay the $3M.

You're misrepresenting my points so I'll lay them out again. 1) Justin is a below average 1st baseman at this point in time. He will be 33 next year and 35+ when the Twins are next competitive and as such will not be helping this team win in the future. 2) There are many internal options that have some chance to be helpful in the future. Whether that chance is big or small is irrelevant. Any chance is larger than zero. 3) There are many external options. These range from long term solutions to cheap 1 year deals. 4) Given the range of options there is no reason to sign Morneau to a multiple year deal. I would prefer a long term solution, which probably means a FA but that seems unlikely given the Twins reservations. So an internal candidate seems the next best option. Perhaps one will turn into a long term solution. If the Twins will not sign an upgrade and have given up on the young guys then we should be looking at 1 year contracts so we can reassess the situation during the '14-15 off season, again looking for a long term solution. Resigning Morneau to a multi-year deal guarantees 1B will not be upgraded for the length of the contract.

Since there hasn't been an update lately I'll just write up his stats. Santana has been having a quietly nice season. After struggling in April with a .522 OPS, as you can read in previous posts, he has turned his season around. Over the last four months his OPS has been .761. He currently is riding quite the hot streak with a .923 OPS in his last 16 games. For the season his line is .294/.330/.382/.712. He is a switch hitter and hits much better from the right side, .843 OPS, versus the left, .661. Surprisingly he has one at bat as a lefty hitter to a lefty pitcher and one at bat as a righty hitter to a righty pitcher. He has 21 BB's (3.9%) and 86 K's (16.2%). On the season he has 25 SB's and 11 CS. He has 31 errors on the season for what it's worth. At 22 years old Santana is very young for AA. He has only 21 PA's against younger pitchers and 511 against older competition. While he could work on upping his walk rate and perhaps hitting for a bit more power, all in all it has been a pretty successful season so far for Mr. Santana.

Thanks for that information. It seems the velocity reports from BA, ESPN, etc... are often inflated. It's nice to have first hand information.

That's a simple question to answer, IMO. Morneau will not be a contributor when the Twins are next competitive. There are others who have a potential to be useful in the future. Even if that potential is small it is still greater than zero. I can't see a reason to keep him.

I couldn't care less if Sano and Morneau play together. There are plenty of players that can provide guidance and are able to scoop a ball. If one of those is a good player and speaks Spanish all the better.