Oxtung

"Signing decline phase players", as you put it, is just one avenue that money could have been spent. If you don't like that particular road then pick another. There is more than one way to skin this cat.

John, Pilgrim, Old Nurse- As I said, you can justify any of the individual points if you try hard enough. Let me ask you just one question: Do you think saving $60 million has helped the Twins return to contention?

Didn't we say the same things about Plouffe last year during his power binge though? I am pretty sure I remember an article by Parker breaking down Plouffe's approach at the plate and showing how he changed something and that was leading to more power and contact. It would be interesting, if Parker were to break Plouffe down again, if something has yet again changed in his mechanics. I guess I fall into the optimistic but wait and see catagory with Dozier. Plouffe....well I don't know what to think about him.

After a day of not looking at this thread I've decided it all comes down to this: 2011-2012 Off season. Ryan decides not to resign Nathan, Kubel and Cuddyer. Payroll drops ~$18 million. 2012 Trades. Ryan receives ~$2 million in salary relief by trading Liriano. 2012-2013 Off season. Ryan decides not to resign Pavano, Baker, Marquis, Capps, Casilla and trades Span. Payroll drops ~$18 million 2013 trades. Ryan receives ~$3.3 million in salary relief by trading Carroll and Morneau. Since Terry Ryan's return the Twins have saved ~$60 million on payroll. You can look at any individual transaction above and make an argument that money wasn't the driving factor but in the end, when you step back and look at the larger picture, Ryan has chosen time and again to cut payroll and save the Pohlad's millions of dollars. Now you can couch that in terms like "that's what rebuilding teams do" and "he doesn't want to spend just to spend" (whatever that means) but how has that helped the Twins? Here we are 2 years after Ryan returned and the Twins are going to lose 90 games for a 3rd straight season. 2014 isn't looking much better. The starting rotation is much worse. The lineup is worse. In fact the only player that I can point to and say, "here is a part of the solution" is Brian Dozier, and even that should come with an asterisk. So here is what I see. A Twins team that is floundering with players that will not be a part of the solution. A team that is bad defensively, a lineup that is near the bottom in the league and a rotation that is racing towards the title, "Worst rotation in the history of major league baseball." And I see $60 million dollars sitting on the table because "the Twins aren't cheap" and "that's what rebuilding teams do".

My problem with last years FA pitcher signings was the lack of upside. Even if Correia and Pelfrey pitched as well as they could, and admittedly Correia has, they are still 4th or 5th starters. I do not want the Twins to go with that approach again because it does nothing to help this team return to contention. Either sign a good pitcher like Garza, a high upside reclamation project like Josh Johnson and The Freak, or let our in house options see what they can do over a full season. We need to start finding long term options and Correia, Pelfrey, et al are not it.

That is certainly a possibility. On the other hand many teams go from losing many games to winning a bunch in 1 season ('91 Twins and the Rays turnaround come to mind). I haven't looked at what causes the difference but if anyone is interested in a research project that would be interesting!

In your scenario it is the Pirates coming down from their original offer by taking on Morneau's full salary. The problem here is that the Pirates GM said the Twins lowered their asking price, not the Pirates.

Is there a way to avoid 90 losses, allow the youngsters to play and still make Ryan comfortable? To me that is the key question.

How you view the Pirates is irrelevant to the facts of the trade. You can call it whatever you want but in the end the Mets had to include cash in order to receive the prospects they wanted. The Twins did not do this. I'm not sure how much more clear that can be made. You're both implying that the Pirates GM immediately went to the owner and said, "Can you cover this $2 million?" That is a big supposition that has no evidence to support it. It is just as likely that TR was unwilling to pay any of the salary and the Pirates GM said, "In order for this trade to happen we need to take on the salary, will you cover it?" In fact I think that is the far more likely scenario given Ryan's trade history (and trades in general). We're clearly spinning our wheels here so I'll just recap my point of view and move on. 1) The Pirates accepted money for prospects just this week. 2) The Pirates owner had to dip into his own pocket to finance this trade. 3) TR has only 1 time included money in a trade. 4) TR didn't spend ~$20 million this off season that was available to him. Saving money is a priority for this FO. The Pirates used their money to improve the team. The Twins did not, instead choosing to save $2 million. This trade could still work out as we don't know the PTBNL. If the Twins get a prospect with some upside it won't be a waste of a resource but I will still always wonder what if...

From Ryan's POV he netted $2 million for a 1 month rental of Morneau, prevented an off season of anguish over Morneau's place in the future plans of the Minnesota Twins, opened AB's for potential replacements and got those scratch off tickets. I can see what he liked about the deal. As a fan I am not pleased.

Do you think Ryan would go for a rotation full of righties?

No, I'm not working off inference here. That came directly from the Pirates GM. The Twins were asking way too much and their asking price came down at the deadline to an acceptable level to make a deal. The link is within the last few pages of this thread if you care to search it out. I guess I don't believe that a major league baseball team would donate money to a direct competitor. Certainly my theory is supposition. However it is based on some known facts. I have asked you several times but as yet you have not responded with any facts to support your position. Willingham had another year on his contract and as such still had value to the Twins. Morneau did not.

Neither of your Morneau trade suppositions are correct. The Pirates GM said they were interested in Morneau for quite a while but the Twins asking price was way too high. The Twins decreased their asking price as the deadline approached. This is logical because Morneau's value was also decreasing every day he wore a Twins uniform. The Mets trade was Byrd, Buck and cash for Herrera and Black. There isn't a question about it, the cash helped the Mets get the prospects they wanted. I think the most likely scenario is that the Twins were asking for a good prospect and the for the Pirates to pick up the salary. The Pirates countered with the prospect but not the salary. When it was obvious the Twins were not going to get their way they eventually decided on lower tier prospects if the Pirates took on the salary as well. At which point the Pirates GM had to go ask the owner for more money to make this happen. The idea that the Pirates wanted to pick up Morneau's full salary is strange since they already had asked the Mets to pick up part of the $1.2 million owed to Byrd and Buck. If the Pirates were that attached to their prospects why wouldn't they have paid the $250k and sent a lesser prospect to the Mets? After all $250k is considerably less than $2 million.

I think you should watch because my uncle is a huge Rangers fan and you, and the collective Twins Nation, want to help me thumb our noses at him. At least that could get you through this afternoon.

Is it possible he said in 2015? If Stewart follows the Buxton path he could make it late in 2015.

Not that I disagree with your overall premise but I think you're off base with you Garza for prospects trade characterization. Archer has a 2.8 BB/9 rate this season and an ERA of 2.81, which btw is considerably lower than Garza's 3.69. We have no idea what Lee ultimately will turn into offensively but he has a .750 OPS in the minors. The average OPS for SS in the majors this year is .677. I'd say Lee has a good chance to be above average with the bat.

That's why I put ???. In which case 2 Marginal prospects + $2 million > 2 Marginal Prospects + $0. I don't know why, but I do know they did it just this week in the Mets deal so it certainly isn't out of the question. So again, there is a little bit of evidence suggesting there might have been more available if the Twins paid Morneau's salary. Do you have any evidence supporting your suppositions?

Fair enough, that was a bit over the top. Sorry. I found an interesting interview I linked to above that mentioned some unexpected sources of data (I think you might even like these ): I would assume, since the article is specifically about statistical analysis, that they are trying to dig deeper into those sources using statistics. These are unlikely to be found in a useful format. These would have to be converted into the necessary format that can then be incorporated into a database. So it isn't all just "plug and play" with databases.

Here is a very interesting interview with Keith Woolner the head of the Indians analytics division (and Ben Alamar, OKC Thunder). I found this passage to be the most interesting but there are a few more nuggets if you care to finish reading the Q & A.

Here is what we know from the Twins perspective: 2 marginal prospects (assuming the Welker reports are true) + ~$2 million (Morneau's remaining salary)> ??? prospect(s) The Twins left ~$20 million on the table this off season when FA upgrades were available and needed. This implies that somewhere in the upper management money is a very real factor in the decision making process. From the Pirates perspective They had to ask the owner to dip into his pocket to pay for Morneau's salary. They gave up a better prospect to the Mets in return for cash considerations just this week. Money clearly is an issue to both teams. The Pirates used that money to improve their team. The Twins did not. The Pirates have accepted cash back for prospects. None of this is concrete evidence there was a better return waiting for Ryan had he picked up most of Morneau's remaining salary, but it is more than "no evidence" as Seth put it. On the other hand, there has been absolutely no evidence presented that eating Morneau's salary wouldn't have improved the trade. If somebody has some I would love to read it. What is best for the organization (ie Ryan and the Pohlad's in this case) is not necessarily what is best for the on the field product. The Twins, first and foremost, are a business and ~$2 million is nothing to sneeze at. So, while I think we can assume he did what he felt was best that doesn't mean he didn't also leave an upgraded prospect on the table in favor of the cash.

Sulbaran's full season splits can be found here. There is nothing alarming in his Righty/Lefty splits other than that his babip against left handers was .401 which in turn drove their BAA up to .293. Even with that they still only OPSed .689 (vs. .651 verus RH).

I don't know, I heard Correia was a darn good pitcher.

Can you explain why you think the Twins are similar to most teams when it comes to starting pitching? I think current rotation results alone would eliminate all but about 2 or 3 teams. When you add in "payroll flexibility", lack of long term commitments/answers and our lack of internal options for next seasons rotation I would guess that number drops to 0. I haven't looked this up but I have a strong hunch the Twins are the only team in the bottom 10 of ERA, will have $60+ million available for FA's, and have 1, possibly 2, pitchers "locked" into the 2014 rotation to start the season (even those come with big questions).

I agree. Many of the Twins not elite prospects had significant season ending slides. From Mayo's list Berrios (will still be ranked higher than May though), Kepler, Eades, Harrison, Melotakis, Bard, Chargois and Goodrum all struggled significantly at some point this season. My guess is Kepler, Polanco, Santana, Sulbaran and Gonsalves pass him up. Harrison and Felix Jorge also have an outside shot IMO. Entirely possible. I look at that split and think, "There is something wrong here."

What a coincidence. My winter nightmare is Morneau and Sano manning the corners next May!