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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Well that is the question. The Royals, where most of us hope the Twins are in a couple years, are paying $11 million in arbitration this year. According to B-Ref that will jump to $32 million in 2014 and $70 million in 2016. There is >0% chance payroll will be an issue when our players reach arbitration even if the Pohlad's open their wallets.
  2. Oxtung
    There is a long list of highly touted prospects that were rushed to the majors and struggled mightily as well. We should be familiar with 2 of them. Just because they're highly touted doesn't guarantee that they are ready for the jump. Looking at stats on a page can only tell you so much when you're talking about a 20 year old.
  3. Oxtung
    You don't think Sano will out produce 2014-2016 Morneau? If that is the case then it likely doesn't matter what the Twins do because their future would take a huge hit. The Twins need Sano, Buxton and Meyer to turn into stars otherwise.... If you don't like the internal option then sign an external one. The point is you don't have to lock yourself into multiple years of Morneau. There are other options.
  4. Oxtung
    Internal options include Plouffe, Colabello, Parmelee, Pinto, Sano, Romero, Vargas and DJ Hicks. Travis Harrison and AB Walker are probably too low in the system to make it within the next two years but in three they are possibilities. External options include Abreau, Napoli, Lind, Loney, Morales, Morse, and Reynolds in 2014. That doesn't include anything creative like signing Brian McCann and splitting 1B/C duties between he and Mauer so they both get time away from the dish keeping them fresher into their 30's. Some of those guys would be slightly better, some slightly worse, but all are potential options. The Twins can find someone for any length of contract they want without locking themselves into Morneau for multiple years. He is a risk they don't have to take.
  5. Oxtung
    Yes. That is out of 90 qualified pitchers.
  6. Oxtung
    We are now approaching 4 starts for Albers in the majors. So far he has faced James Shields, Chris Sale and is scheduled to start against Justin Verlander in his next bout. Welcome to the majors!
  7. Oxtung
    Buxton won't be up by midseason and might not be at all next season. If the Twins are as terrible as they are this season, which seems likely, Willingham hopefully won't be on the team after midseason. I actually think he was a good signing and like his bat but he won't be a part of our future, might be able to return some prospects and certainly will open up needed AB's. As much as I would like it, I don't think the Twins will sign anyone as good as Morales. Florimon is slowly turning into the player we all feared he would be offensively. Mauer, Sano, Arcia and hopefully Dozier would sure be nice to see. Slight nit-pick but I don't think the Twins would slot Sano, or any player just brought up, into the clean up role. Given your lineup I think it's more likely to be Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon. Or if they aren't comfortable with Buxton batting lead off immediately it might be Dozier, Mauer, Willingham, Morales, Sano, Arcia, Buxton, Doumit, Florimon.
  8. Oxtung
    Like the lifeline tossed to a man who fell overboard during a raging storm perhaps this will provide a glimmer of hope. Gibson's fastball averaged 92.3 mph this season. If he qualified that would place him with the 28th fastest in MLB. Only 11 players averaged >93.3 mph. Only 6 players averaged >94 mph. Batter's swung at 32.4% of Gibson's pitches outside the strike zone which would have ranked him 23. They made contact with his out of zone(OOZ) pitches 68.8% of the time which is average. Lohse, Cliff Lee, Gio Gonzalez, Greinke all have similar OOZ swing and miss rates. Where Gibson especially struggled was with In Zone Contact rate (91%) and First Pitch Strikes (50.9%), and Strike % of all pitches thrown (39.9%) all of which would be bottom 5 in the league. It seems to me that his IZC% could be driven by his poor FPS% which is in turn driven by his poor ability to actually throw strikes. If you're frequently starting behind hitters that is a problem. Poor command is a commonly stated side effect of TJ surgery; combined with only throwing 40ish innings last year I hope this will right itself next season. He is fooling batters into swinging and missing many of his pitches out of the zone so his stuff can't be that terrible. He won't become an Ace but a mid rotation pitcher still seems possible if he can improve his command.
  9. Oxtung
    We ain't talking about the game. We talking about practice, man.
  10. Oxtung
    I'm not sure that Florimon has earned anything. His line currently is .216/.273/.325/.598. That is terrible. If he continues to slump he could end up with an OPS in the .550 range. I think that Danny Santana will be given a opportunity to compete in spring training with Florimon.
  11. Oxtung
    There is another approach. The Twins could very quickly lock up most of their young players, even knowing some will fail, at low rates to try and extend the window of opportunity before arbitration and free agency rip the team asunder. This might have the added benefit of allowing a small amount of payroll late in the window for free agents. It would be like front loading a FA contract except that you'd be "front loading" your core instead. Without doing the math I'm not sure it would be enough for a tier 1 free agent but perhaps a 2nd tier? I doubt it. In fact I doubt the Reds would do a Cingrani for Buxton trade straight up. As good as we hope Buxton will be he is still a prospect at A-ball. Cingrani on the other hand, with all the "flaws" you attribute to him, is currently dominating as a 23 year old in the majors. He has 6 years of team control left and he is left handed. Even if he "only" turns into a number 2 starter there is still significant value in that. Look at what James Shields cost for just 2 years at a relatively high salary. Span, an average CF, cost the Nationals a very highly thought of SP at A-ball.
  12. Oxtung
    If he can stick at SS and play adequate defense. Of course at .760 OPS he would still be pretty good at 2B.
  13. Oxtung
    Nicksaviking & jokin, I think everyone can agree, or at least I agree, that the Twins have struggled to produce quality starting pitching for the past few years due to a variety of reasons. It is disappointing. But throwing AAAA pitchers into a rotation is not any better than signing a free agent. In fact if you go the AAAA route then you actually need to acquire even more AAAA pitchers to replace the ones in the opening day rotation as they inevitably fail. I wish we were in the position the White Sox are in. I wish we had 4 young pitchers with potential to populate the rotation but we don't and we won't for a couple of more years. AROG- Stats tell you exactly what has happened. You can certainly argue with the methodology and the applicability of a particular stat but it's not "lying" to you. You mention that a computer wouldn't be your choice for manager, why not? Computers consistently beat Grand Master chess players. A couple of years ago the computer Watson defeated Ken Jennings, the best human Jeopardy player of all time, head to head and won $1 million. If a computer was specifically designed to manage a baseball game I would have no problems letting it make game time decisions. After all baseball is nothing but a game of probabilities which computers excel at. To the bunting conversation. You dismiss ERT's as being too generic to give advice in specific situations and then point to slightly modified, and yet still generic, ERT's to prove your point. That seems illogical.
  14. Oxtung
    So you're making the argument that the twins should promote ______ to the rotation instead of signing vets? Coming into this season Meyer hadn't pitched above a-ball and May had struggled at AA. I guess the twins could have filled the rotation with two of Hernandez, De Vries, Darnell, etc but that isn't really going young either. Pat Dean? I guess I'm not sure what exactly you're arguing for here. It doesn't seem like the twins were in a position to call up a bunch of pitching prospects to start the season out thus they needed some veterans.
  15. Oxtung
    I can understand your point about relievers vs. everyday players. I'm not sure where I fall. My only problem with your previous post was your statement about pitchers not having dominant seasons.
  16. Oxtung
    You're not the first person to mention this. Does anyone have any evidence to support that assumption? That said the Twins have as many spots on the 40 man roster as they need. There certainly is a place available for all the Twins prospects that need protecting. If that happens with Kepler (or Polanco) then they really need to be on the fast track. Like the express lane being escorted by police vehicles with military helicopters flying ahead warning people to get out of the way after the whole freeway has been shut down presidential style. Kepler is likely going to start 2014 at Cedar Rapids. I would assume the Twins want to have an option year remaining when he gets to the majors so that when he inevitably struggles he can be sent back to AAA just like every other prospect. That means he needs to make it from A-ball to the majors in just 2 years. Polanco would be slightly better because he will start next season at A+ Fort Myers. Of course this all assumes that these guys pan out like we hope they will. If Kepler has hit his ceiling then the point is moot.
  17. Oxtung
    If you think a pitcher doesn't deserve it because they only pitch every 5 days or have limited innings out of the bullpen, I can understand that. I disagree but I understand that. I don't understand the idea that some of the pitchers haven't been dominant. For instance Zach Jones has a 1.81 ERA in 44IP with 24H and 62K's. That's means he's giving up a hit once every other inning and half the time his fielders don't even get to play because he's striking batters out at such an astounding clip. It doesn't get much more dominant than that. Frankly I don't get what he's still doing in Fort Myers. Tyler Jones has been nearly as dominant. Tonkin might be more dominant. Another pitcher that deserves consideration is Andrew Albers. He has a 2.28 ERA in 132IP with a 1.179 WHIP and 116K's (7.9/9IP).
  18. Oxtung
    Always fun when an OF gets involved in a double play!
  19. Oxtung
    Jorge Polanco, Zach Jones, Michael Tonkin, Josmil Pinto and Danny Santana are other names that I think should get consideration. If you're going to put Colabello up then you probably also need to add Kyle Gibson as well. They've both spent quite a bit of time at the major league level. If this was an open poll I think that Sano and Buxton would probably win on name recognition but I think there are others that are equally worthy. Wide open this year IMO.
  20. Oxtung
    In the last 10 years only 1 hitter has been taken below AA and played even 1 game in the majors before being returned. That was Everth Cabrera. Even at AA it is very rare for a position player to get drafted and stick. You can't just stash a position player like a pitcher. Everybody is needed to contribute. Cabrera for instance played in 100 games and had 438 PAs.
  21. Oxtung
    What's the criteria for an exception and how often is it granted?
  22. Oxtung
    In this thread about AFL predictions PseudoSABR listed the eligibility rules. One of them was: If that is correct then Meyer would not be eligible for AFL.
  23. Oxtung
    Pat Tillman's wife says HI!
  24. Oxtung
    I doubt if Doumit would get claimed. He isn't hitting well, is considered a poor defensive catcher by all measuring sticks, and has a year left on his contract. If Morneau doesn't get claimed I don't think Doumit does either.
  25. Oxtung
    Totally off topic but this just isn't true. Even today they would be exceptionally hard to build. It would take a first world country to fund the work and top architectural, engineering and construction companies to make it a reality. It would take many years of construction and considerable dedication to see the project through. Here is a nice article about this if you want to read more.
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