Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Oxtung

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    I agree that article was terrible, however, Kill could very easily be 13-24 (4-20) after his 3rd season. For comparison Brewster was 15-30 (6-21) before he was fired. Wacker was 16-39 (8-32). I don't think he will be fired after this offseason but I think he will be on an extremely hot seat. To this point he has been the same as everyone not named Glen Mason. I think another important piece here is that Teague is not the AD that hired Kill. It is entirely possible he is eager to put his stamp on the football team like he did basketball (whether that turns out to be for better or worse remains to be seen).
  2. Oxtung
    Well he was well above a 5 in 2011 (3.01 ERA in 21 starts) and the first half of 2012 (2.92 ERA in first 12 starts). Then he got hurt, he tanked (5.80 ERA in last 11 starts) and had offseason surgery. Queue the trade to the Twins and the terrible 2013 year he had. Do you think his arm will never recover from that surgery? I'm not trying to be argumentative here, just curious.
  3. Oxtung
    I'm a huge Gopher football fan, I like them more than the Twins frankly, but they are getting extremely hard to watch. I don't think the Gophers need to worry about the epilepsy at this point. Kill could be fired following this season based on production alone. At this point a 4-8 (0-8) season is looking very possible. In year 3 that should be unacceptable. I also look at their roster and only see 2 or 3 young players that I point to and say, "he has a chance to be an All-Big 10 player in the future." I think Kill is going to be on the hot seat after this season and it will have nothing to do with his epilepsy.
  4. Oxtung
    How about something as simple as some small shock absorbers. If you think about it that is exactly what they are designed to do; absorb energy so that the resulting "bump" isn't as large. I completely agree that MLB should be putting a lot of money into designing new safety gear, not just for the catcher, but batting helmets and perhaps pitching helmets too. How many comebackers do pitchers need to take off the head before we do something about it?
  5. Oxtung
    I have a gut feeling that Worley is going to be significantly better next season and win a spot during ST. Correia is a lock and I would guess we add 1 pitcher via FA or trade. So: FA/Trade Correia Worley Lefty (unless this is the FA/Trade) Deduno if healthy or Hendriks or AAAA starter or potentially another 1 year carpy FA pitcher. I think Meyer is a long shot to make the opening day rotation. I actually think May will be brought up before Meyer because of his options status. He burned his first year this season and will certainly burn his second next season whereas Meyer doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man until after 2014.
  6. Oxtung
    When you're looking at next season revenue is irrelevant. What matters is how much they have available to spend. Sure there are teams that have more revenue but they also have large commitments already to 2014 for the most part. Look at the Phillies. Their payroll this season was ~$140MM. That is certainly more than the Twins could field indicating they have significantly higher revenue. However, they also have between $130MM and $160MM committed to 2014 already. On the other hand the Twins have ~$60MM committed. They could spend somewhere between $90-$110MM next season, depending on what revenue figures you want to use. So, while the Phillies have a higher revenue, the Twins actually will have more money available to spend this offseason. When it's all said and done the Twins have somewhere between $50MM and $75MM to spend this offseason. How many teams could match that buying power? I don't know but I would guess it's only a handful.
  7. Oxtung
    You can make all the excuses you want but it still stands that all those players were either not ready until 25 or were not good until 25. Kepler has long been considered very raw but talented. It should be no surprise if he doesn't start jumping levels quickly and instead takes him a while to put it all together. Taking an "if he isn't ready by 24 he should be cut anyways" attitude is to ignore reality (this wasn't necessarily your point but others have made it in this thread).
  8. Oxtung
    There has only been 1 position player that was drafted from A-ball and went on to play a game with their new MLB team in the last 10 years. That was a defensive minded shortstop with speed. A not great defensively OF/1B that can't pinch hit, can't pinch run, can't be a defensive replacement is not going to get drafted let alone stick with a team. The options are a very important consideration. Most players aren't able to stick by age 23. Cuddyer, Bartlett, Mientkiewicz, Koskie, and Span all had their first full season at the age of 25. Morneau, Hunter and Jacque Jones had their first success at 25 as well. Jason Kubel was 26. Committing to a course of action that tosses a player under the bus because they aren't ready at the age of 23 seems foolhardy.
  9. Oxtung
    Like Icy Hot? They can make the pain go away? After 3 crappy years I could go for that.
  10. Oxtung
    As others have stated he wore down considerably in the second half. His first half numbers were very good. [TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]ERA IP K/9 BB/9 babip 1st Half 3.05 56 10.4 2.4 .353 2nd Half 4.93 49.1 6.4 4.6 .310 [/TABLE] When you take his babip into account his 1st half numbers were truly amazing. I'm glad that BA recognized that he wore down over the second half of the season. Does anyone know how many innings he threw in HS in 2012? He only threw 31 innings for the Twins in 2012 vs. 104 innings in 2013. Seems like that is a big jump to make.
  11. Oxtung
    In the last 10 years only 1 position player has been drafted from A-ball and not been returned or traded for. That was the Padres SS. Can someone explain the minor league portion of the draft because my interpretation and what others have said here aren't the same.
  12. Oxtung
    I think it was the meaningful games in September.
  13. Oxtung
    I don't know that he would either but I would certainly be on the phones trying to make it happen. I would be willing to give up a prospect in return to balance out the trade if that would help. I would also be willing to eat Perkins' already small salary if that would do anything. Another route I would look at is adding overpriced but still good players. Off the top of my head I'm not sure who still fits this bill though.
  14. Oxtung
    Since Smurf brought it up I'll clarify my position a bit. I differentiate between Aces and #1 starters. To me Aces are the elite of the elite, the guys that are in the conversation of "Cy Young Award" more often than not. Kershaw, Lincecum (pre-2012), Santana, etc... there are probably only 6-10 guys I consider Aces at any point in time. On the other hand #1 starters, while they might be in the Cy Young conversation for a year or two, are not consistently dominating. This isn't a knock, there are many very good pitchers that fall into this category like Greinke and Sabathia. Without looking again I would say there are perhaps another 10-15 pitchers that fit this description. So all told there might be about 20 pitchers that are true top of the rotation pitchers IMO.
  15. Oxtung
    I think Aaron Gleeman hit the nail on the head when he said Perkins has less value at the trade deadline because teams are looking at relievers as 3 month rentals that don't cost much. They want the biggest bang for the littlest buck. I think Perkins value will be greatest during the off season because teams are making their longer term plans which would maximize his contract status. I would move him this off season probably.
  16. Oxtung
    Swarzak is 1st year Arb eligible in 2014. Duensing, who was similarly Arb eligible in 2013, made $1.3MM. Swarzak shouldn't receive more than $2MM this offseason.
  17. Oxtung
    That statement probably needed further explanation. He will definitely cost something of value but he has hardly pitched in the last 2 years after hurting his arm in HS that required TJ surgery. He only threw 36 innings this season and hasn't pitched in full season ball yet. He has some very serious risks attached to him currently. So if one is trying to acquire potential front-line starters, which I was looking for, he might be "cheap" in comparison to say Kyle Zimmer, Aaron Sanchez or Robert Stephenson. Dylan Bundy could be another "buy low" candidate coming off his surgery. Given the Twins' current "stockpile" of tradeable talent it is going to be hard to acquire a top tier pitching prospect and so looking for a risk might be required.
  18. Oxtung
    Many of you have mentioned that he has had his chances and he needs to go. I assume that applies to all the other random pitchers the Twins have trotted out recently like De Vries, Pelfrey, Walters and perhaps Worley as well. The Twins will have Correia and Gibson in the rotation with, presumably a spot for a left hander, one of Albers, Diamond, Hernandez, Darnell. That leaves 2 (or potentially 3 if you think they'll go without a lefty) spots open. Realistically the Twins aren't going to sign anyone good (sorry Thyrlos). Would you rather have Pelfrey/Correia/Marquis make those starts instead of Hendriks? Bring May or Meyer up straight from AA? I don't see many better alternatives that Ryan would consider acceptable. IMO at the very least he should be given a chance out of the bullpen.
  19. Oxtung
    I haven't put my plan together yet but some ideas: I would go after Tanaka and sign Josh Johnson and/or Tim Lincecum. Both have the potential to be #1-3 pitchers on a staff. Even with Lincecum's "problems" he still is averaging 1 strike out an inning and his FIP and xFIP are in the 3's. I would toss money at them to entice them to a shorter contract then, if we're not competing, eat that salary in a trade (assuming they have pitched well enough to garner a trade). Or if they are amenable and they are pitching well look at working out a longer term contract. I also think I would start asking about Chris Owings, Jurickson Profar, Alcantara (although trading with the Cubs is unlikely), and pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Luis Heredia, Lucas Sims, Julio Urias and Lucas Giolito. Giolito and Urias are both very intriguing, Giolito because he might be a good buy low candidate (and he plays for the Nats with whom Ryan has a good working relationship) and Urias because he just seems destined to be a stud. He dominated A-ball as a 16 year old that already has a low 90's FB. I don't know if we match up well with any of those teams in particular but I would put Perkins and Mauer on the table, though I'm guessing Mauer's ship has sailed with this concussion. On a longer term note I'm really hoping that Stuart Turner turns into a pitch framing stud and that he can hit enough to start.
  20. Oxtung
    Baseball is a zero sum game. Your loss is my win. Right now teams are doing more and better than the Twins and consequently we are losing the game. In the highly competitive world of MLB a team needs to find a competitive edge and right now the Twins don't have one. The Twins won't win the World Series until they find one.
  21. Oxtung
    I've acknowledged each of those points in previous posts then pointed out how the Cubs, Astros and Marlins are all doing those same things (and in many cases better than the Twins are). In addition those three teams have also taken further steps to return to contention. Yes the Twins are doing some things for the future but they have yet to make a creative move that wasn't written down in the "this is how you rebuild" playbook. If you want to call that "quibbling over the i's and t's" that is just fine. The other bottom feeders have each made a creative move which means the Twins aren't doing as much as the other rebuilding teams are doing.
  22. Oxtung
    Great, the Twins have one of the top farm systems this season. Does that mean that Fernandez and Stanton don't exist for the Marlins? Or that Castro and Rizzo don't for the Cubs? How about the 5 players aged 22 or 23 for the Astros? So yes, it's great that the Twins have a strong farm system, but the more pertinent question is who has the most young and impactful talent. That isn't the Twins. And I'll lay this out there one more time hoping you pick up on the difference. The question isn't "do the Twins have a plan" but rather "are they maximizing their opportunity?" Disagree with their approach but the Cubs, Marlins and Astros are definitely trying to maximize their returns from their respective approaches.
  23. Oxtung
    There are several options. 1) The Twins could follow the Astros and trade Mauer and Perkins (Willingham too if he'd bring anything back) go young, suck and receive a top 1 or 2 draft pick. 2) The Twins could spend in FA, even if that means overpaying, with the intent of flipping those guys a la the Marlins of 2012. 3) The Twins could spend in FA on long term high upside contracts to bring in talent so that when our minor league talent arrives there is a solid core already in place and we could contend immediately. 4) The Twins could go in on Cuban or Japanese FA's. 5) The Twins could have been creative like the Cubs on international FA's covered by the spending cap. 6) The Twins could have put their excess cash to work by hiring some of the best and brightest analytical minds available to create an edge in identifying talent for the future. I'm sure there are more options but those are off the top of my head. I have my preference but right now that doesn't matter. I just want the Twins to stop wasting resources; to do everything in their power to return this team to competitiveness.
  24. Oxtung
    My favorite quote: I would love to know what that free thinking is! Can anyone point to an example of outside the box thinking?
  25. Oxtung
    The Cubs, Marlins, Astros and Twins have all had top 10 picks the last 2 seasons and will again in 2014. The talent brought in is going to be similar though not exactly the same. The Cubs have traded for 2 top 100 prospects and a very intriguing C.J. Edwards. The Astros have traded for 4 top 100 prospects. The Marlins have traded for 5 top 100 prospects. The Twins have acquired 1 (perhaps 2 if you include May) top 100 prospect. Looks like the Twins are actually behind in the prospect accumulation race. The best farm system is almost a worthless accolade (and quite frankly it is debatable if the Twins have the best). It is a snapshot of exactly 1 moment in time. The more pertinent question is who has the most young, impact talent? IMO that is hands down the Marlins followed by the Astros. The fact that some of the Marlins talent is already successful in the majors is actually a bonus but isn't accounted for in the minor league analysis. So again, what are the Twins doing to gain a competitive edge?
×
×
  • Create New...