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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Protect that hammy, Miggy!
  2. jokin
    I was "thinking it" because of who was throwing and the situation, but Bert practically called it just before it happened- the pitch he hit was 96 MPH, just after he had laid off of a 97 MPH FB just off the plate. And good interview after the game. Buck's been working hard with Bruno and the first results showed today. Not surprisingly, it doesn't sound like he's getting down on himself, at all. Probably has yet to completely turn the corner and "flip the switch"... but by July of next year, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he will be regularly considered for MLB Player of the Month honors.
  3. jokin
    The concept of WAR was developed in part, to put some qualitative quantification on what actually constitutes what "good" is and separate facts from myth, rumor, legend and "conventional wisdom". Fact is, Meares was not all that good relative to the SS of his era.. Despite playing the 11th most games for all SS from 1993-2001, and the 20th most PAs, he ranks 45th in fWAR for all SS during those 9 years. To put that number ranking into further perspective- Do we consider Jeff Reboulet to be "good"? I was actually somewhat surprised to find that Reb ranked 28th over the same time frame- with more than double the fWAR @ 5.3 Defensively, no doubt Meares was decent, but his TZ score of 5, grades out on the scale used for that metric as exactly "above average" (with a 10 score being "great" and 15 being "gold glove caliber"). In Meares' 3 best years with the Twins, 1995-1997, he did accumulate 4.8 WAR, but that still only ranked 12th among all qualified SS in those 3 years. That sounds like more "slightly above average" production, even during his peak career 3 years.
  4. jokin
    At this point, haven't we all learned to be very wary of overvaluing "absolute monster springs"? A mid-season call-up, at the earliest, is a pretty reasonable hope and expectation. As of right now, the only way Max is going to get a legit early look is if Plouffe is dealt and Torii retires.- and that Kepler has a strong ST. Even then, he would likely still be behind Mauer, Rosario, Hicks Buxton,a Vet OF, and possibly Arcia and Vargas, on the depth chart And Ryan's nature suggests it extremely unlikely that he would count on Kepler to start out the season and expected to carry the combined weight of what was lost by dumping the veterans.
  5. jokin
    I gotta admit, and not trying to be argumentative, I too was thinking a little bit of satire was being injected on your part. sane. I think most reasonable people would agree that your use of the word "good" shouldn't accompany a description of Meares' net accumulation of 2.6 fWAR over 9 MLB years.
  6. jokin
    And almost a year younger than Palacios, and he bats left handed- his plate discipline was outstanding both in the DSL and the GCL. Looking forward to any reports you might have, Bob, on how both Arraez and Palacios are doing this month.
  7. jokin
    I also think Jepsen has been kept aloft by a few luck bubbles, as well. His hard hit rate is the highest of his career. Normalized HR/9, BABIP and LOB% will eventually bring down to Earth his current stellar numbers.
  8. jokin
    Yep, and apparently he's also greatly benefited by Allen tweaking his pitch selection (Jepsen has dumped the 2-seam FB, decreased his CB% and of course, increased his CH%), as his control was horrible at Tampa Bay, not only has he had dramatic improvement with control, he's actually also increased his K/9 by nearly 1 full strikeout per 9.
  9. jokin
    You're likely correct and I'm in agreement- the whole Gardy-Molly situation was odd, very transparent at the intentions, at times painful when the veil was briefly lifted. But if the Twins do want to retain Dougie, they're likely gong to have to come up with something creative. In this instance, Mollie's job won't be under imminent threat. Perhaps it might involve a grander succession plan which would include Terry Ryan- who might like to move up from the GM position in a couple years, with Molitor moving out of the dugout- right after a Twins WS win.
  10. jokin
    Yeah, I noticed that, and wondered why there wasn't a spot made available for him on the Cedar Rapids post-season roster.
  11. jokin
    It does help to have 3 guys who don't appear to have an ego-conflict about the "closer" title. Speaking of roles: 1)May has been nothing but a "good soldier" about his move to the pen, despite having had to defer to a multitude of higher-paid, but less-effective fellow starters. 2) Jepsen seems happy just to have been wanted by someone seeking a high leverage situation pitcher, and more than willing to make changes in his approach that have proven to be successful vs. his control struggles at Tampa Bay- as suggested by Neal Allen . 3) Perkins hasn't said one negative thing about how the Twins have handled his situation since he started struggling and hasn't made any public claim on what he might perceive to be "his" rightful role.
  12. jokin
    It seems like the next ship for him to sail on with the Twins would be as a coach at the major league level- perhaps putting in a multi-year apprenticeship under Molitor with an implied promise that the job is his when Molitor moves up to an executive position (Molitor turns 60 next year). Due to his personal situation and the fluid circumstances in Miami, the Marlins job seems like the most logical managerial offer he might receive and accept- but it looks like the Marlins are gong hard after Manny Acta.
  13. jokin
    Whether he looks or not, it's still quite a refreshing change from the previous era.
  14. jokin
    Just so I'm clear, in case you were referring to me, I was in the not-ready-yet camp for Kepler in early May- given his history and relative to how Sano and Buxton were performing. As my posting history will attest, I am always in the "try it" sooner rather than later camp for the best-performing prospects. I think it would have definitely been worth a shot to have had Kepler pinch hitting in all of these important situations over a struggling Danny Santana.
  15. jokin
    Absolutely right.
  16. jokin
    Liam Hendricks gives up an 8th inning solo homer to Carlos Beltran. The Yankees take the 3-2 into the bottom of the 9th with Betances on the mound- in the critical series if the Yankees hope to catch the Jays.
  17. jokin
    Ken, you are correct about his slow start. I never advocated to call him up in April, and certainly the Twins made the right decision on where to start him out in 2015. However, I had the chance to see him play in early May, Sano was in the midst of making his huge adjustment- from primarily big fly ball hitter in April, to Line Drive hitter in May. (His April LD% was 12.2%, for May/June- 24.0%. His OFB rate in April was 43.9%, for April June- 31.2%.) Back to the Chattanooga game: He batted 6 times that game, every ball was hit on the nose- to all fields ( 1 K, 1 line drive out at the wall, 2 line drive sac flies to deep LF and RF, and a hard hit single back through the box, plus a double smacked hard, high off the left-center field wall). I wrote up the story at the time, it obviously appeared that he had adjusted after the layoff - and would soon master AA pitching. A little later, I started the "Sano- How soon is Now"? thread, as he continued to spray hard hit line drives and take walks at prolific rates, putting up AA-Kris Bryant-like numbers throughout all of May and all of June (.320/.403/.611). Based on what the Twins got when Sano was finally called up, he certainly proved that he was very ready. BTW- Kepler also looked terrific in that game in May, 3/5 with 2 doubles. but even though Kepler is 3 months older than Sano, besides the obvious differences physically, Sano looked much more like the more ready prospect than Kepler, as did Buxton.
  18. jokin
    I'd be on board for all 3 of nytwins suggestions, but I'm not confident that Ryan will make the moves to "clear itself out." Regarding Sano, it's obvious now that either he was completely mis-asessesed in May or the Twins had already decided that they were going to wait for the Super 2 date, regardless of his readiness. And Seth, you missed the point in my previous post, Buxton was only called up because of both injury- and the fact that the decision to promote became easier since it was beyond the Super 2 date. Unless there's a major injury, or your scenarios of the Twins making the offseason requisite roster-clearing moves, there won't be room for Kepler in the first 3 months or so of 2016. The closer the prospect for promotion gets towards the projected Super 2 date, the more likely they wait on Kepler. Seth, what do you think the chances are that the Twins re-sign Hunter? (I'm thinking better than 50-50). And, what are the odds that Ryan finds sufficient return to pull the trigger on a Plouffe trade? (I'm thinking less than 50-50). Sp. if Ryan does keeps them both and also looks to bring up Buxton no later than May, it becomes extremely unlikely that we see Kepler much in the first half of 2016, barring major injury.
  19. jokin
    A blast out in RF at AT&T is impressive with that high wall, and he had no help from the slight breeze blowing in. But, having walked around back there myself- there is no street or parking lot directly beyond the RF bleachers, just a walkway and service lane to the Lookout locker room and then a steep hill heading straight down to the parking lot along the Tennessee River- if Kepler reached that parking lot, that was quite a jolt!
  20. jokin
    Why? Unless he's offered the Marlins/Rays managerial job, isn't it just as likely that he gets another promotion to coach at the major league level with the Twins (for say Vavra as the bench coach, or say, becoming 3rd base/infield coach)?
  21. jokin
    It could be just a few weeks for Kepler before his 2016 Twins call-up, but Sano and Buxton weren't called up until the bean counters assured management that they were safely beyond the Super 2 date- and, in the other "obvious" case- despite dominating Double A and Triple A- and the Twins desperately needing spot starts in July and a live arm for the stretch run, Berrios never got the call at all. And, as others have noted, there's already a major log jam at all of the positions where Kepler might play. Would they really call up Kepler in the 3rd-4th week of April/1st week of May, if there's no place to play? Buxton is also highly likely to start out in Rochester, so you gotta ask yourself- "Which of these two will get the first call?" Rosario got the early call-up this year- because there was a place to play. Ironically, what happens with Trevor Plouffe this offseason is the first indication of where they see Kepler fitting into their plans in 2016. How many times have they "counted on" a rookie early on, and how many times have they turned to the rookie only after injury or a failed veteran made an opportunity available (the Aaron Hicks nightmare debut hasn't likely been soon forgotten)? In contrast to expecting an early call-up, I think it would be just as safe to predict that we won't be seeing Kepler until as late as June or July- as in the cases of Sano and Buxton- possibly with Plouffe gone- as the new DH/p-t 1st Base/4th OF- maybe with Hunter accepting a 5th OF/DH role to help make room for Kepler to play more regularly.
  22. jokin
    As I noted down-thread, there certainly is a chance to trade bad contract for bad contract... some sort of deal with Jose Reyes as a centerpiece, for example.
  23. jokin
    I like your thinking on this situation, but TR has dug himself a bit of a hole here- gotta think the Twins' solution to this dilemma will look more like: -non-tendering Pelfrey and perhaps, both Fien and either Cotts/Duensing, -trading Nolasco for another bad contract, and if that fails, trying to "showcase" him early on in 2016 as a starter, -trading Milone (I believe he's out of options), -and giving the guy they just extended out to 2019- Phil Hughes- every possible chance to claim a 2016 starting spot.
  24. jokin
    With Jepsen and Perkins as the co-closers? (and presumably , wouldn't that make the Twins holding the dubious honor of possibly the most expensive bullpen in all of baseball?) 1) Nolasco $12M 2) Hughes $9.2M ($49M over next 4 years) 3) Perkins $6.5M 4) Jepsen $6.0M (Arb award estimate) 5) Pelfrey $5.5M (based on 2015 salary) 6) Boyer $2.5M (FA est.) or Fien $2.5M (Arb award est.) 7) LH RP- Cotts $3M (FA est.) or Duensing $3.5M (FA est.) That comes out to ~$45M- just for the bullpen. By contrast, the LA Dodgers 2015 RP payroll is around $20M. I just don't see this as a very likely scenario...
  25. jokin
    And surely, Hughes won't be going anywhere... while Nolasco will be on the trading block this offseason, in exchange for the proverbial bag of balls.
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