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Everything posted by jokin

  1. Nick Anderson continues his ascendance to majordomo status for the Rays bullpen in tonight's Wild Card game vs. the A's. After yielding a leadoff single to Greg Olson, he strikes out the next 4 straight (3 swinging) in 1.1 IP in the 8th and 9th innings. HIs velocity has actually ticked up in the postseason, with most of his FBs coming in at 97 and 98 MPH. And the big drop on his breaking ball had the A's hitters flummoxed. ESPN announcers noted that the Rays were 11-14 in 1-run games before Anderson joined the Rays, and 12-2 in 1-run games ever since. Although the MLB braintrust and sponsors might have a heart attack, I think it would be amazing if Tampa Bay (with the lowest MLB payroll) and the Twins (TB and MN rank #1 and #2 in bullpen MLB fWAR since August 1) were to somehow knock off the vaunted Astros starting staff and the Yankees Murderers Row lineup, and then play late next week in the ALCS.
  2. Disingenuous a bit? It seems inevitable that it's bound to happen. The Brewers came just "this" close. Small market teams like the Royals took the first baby steps towards the trend, last year the Brewers, and now the Rays qnd Twins (albeit almost via necessity and accidental and unfortunate circumstances) have shown the way to potentially overcome the financial handicaps of hoping to compete as a small market team- get some shutdown pitchers for the late innings that are still cost-effective in their arb years, collect a secondary group of RPs both internally and externally with varying pedigrees (but still on the cheap), and avoid putting any significant sunk costs into expensive and sparkly FA SPs that will hamper your financial flexibility for other needs (or cripple it should they blow up via injury, ineffectiveness or suspensions).
  3. Fair points, all. On Pineda, the Twins have a bevy of SP hopefuls hanging around. Thorpe the most obvious, Goncalves if healthy, Smeltzer if necessary. I think giving them each a "tryout" or two will suffice until Pineda is elgible. My impression is that Pomeranz would kill to get another legit shot at starting, the Twins have put themselves in the position to hand him just that opportunity- with a team that hits better than the Brew Crew- he just might rise to the occasion. On Graterol, I think he will have a 3rd pitch in the works by next April. The kid is as good looking a young fireballing prospect as anyone I've seen this side of Strasburg or even Nolan Ryan. That easy motion and delivery should be most amenable to teaching an effective 3rd pitch if he's willing to put in the time.
  4. This would have been crazy talk to even consider a scenario like this even just 5-6 years ago, but now, given the Twins current circumstances, it makes perfect sense. Perez as a long RP, maybe in a still-winnable game where the SP goes bust? People are (justifiably) questioning Graterol's results thus far. translating to post-season. But I have an inkling that this guy's a sponge, and his learning curve is steep. And seriously, why not roll the dice with Graterol? You can feature Duffey, then May, then Graterol- Fast/Faster/Fastest- with Graterol maybe getting one or two tough outs and then handing it over to Rogers.
  5. 14 active roster pitchers and 6 more on the AAA shuttle- that's 20 MLB-capable arms- now put pencil to paper and project and "manage" the ~1600 innings needed in 2020. Apply an econometric model- you can probably produce a more effective outcome than signing two $18-25M AAV SPs and another two $8-12M AAV RPs.
  6. Great post. It's coming. The crazy economics and pitching arm fragility demands it. Tampa Bay and MN are the #1 and #2 teams in RP fWAR since August 1. I'd wager that their RP budgets are some of the lowest in MLB. 14 pitchers likely on most MLB active rosters in 2020. (The Twins, via SP injury, illness and suspension are already more than halfway there- they might become the first playoff team that logs more RP than SP innings during the post-season).
  7. In the "disappointed in the career results" category, YES to Liriano comp. But in the "compelling, must see" category, a big NO. Scott Baker, or even more, like Jason Vargas, in the "provider of baseball entertainment" category.
  8. I'm trying to do just that. At this point, he's like a Matt Capps fading fever dream. Right now? A 2020 lotto ticket if he somehow avoids serious surgery.
  9. Great post. About where I think the Twins see it (hopefully). Just have him spend serious time doing the Berrios training regimen with Jose in Puerto Rico, And have him spend the remaining spare time working on a change with Johan. Brusdar will become a beast..
  10. 1) Berrios 2) Pineda 3) FA... Dallas Kuechel 4) Dobnak's spot to lose in-season 5) Graterol's spot to lose in ST (Sign FA Drew Pomeranz- add some "Wes Magic") "Loser" of the 3 goes to the pen/AAA. QO for Odo (he declines) 7th Inning- May/Duffey 8th Inning- Trade for Ken Giles 9th Inning- Rogers
  11. Abso-tively. I've been saying so for the last two months, thanks to Rowson for making the hitting approach changes, Rocco for being the first in the org to truly believe in Garver's full potential, and especially to Garver himself, Garver has to be the MVP or co-MVP. He's transforming himself into the heart and soul of the team, offensively and in handling the pitching corps. A catcher who frequently, and justifiably, hits in the #1, and last night, the #2 spot? I can't help but feel that under the previous manager and staff, he'd still be just another catcher fighting for ABs with the other guy who got the big contract. And now, the reality is, Garver's season at the plate in terms of team impact and overall statistical production currently eclipses all of Mauer's years except for his AL MVP year. (Mauer had a wRC+ of 170 in 2009, Garver's wRC+ is now around 160). Garver's batting slash with RISP: .339/.397/.732/(1.129) Cruz's batting slash with RISP: .355/.466/.559/(1.025) Garver is the best in baseball in HR frequency. His HR/AB ratio is 1/9.75. By comparison, Trout's ratio is 10.444. Of course, his hitting splits differential are limiting him from becoming a true superstar. As Garver approaches his age 29 season, the Twins must me mindful of Garver's prodigious bat potential and consider how Buster Posey, Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer made transitions away from full-time catching duties. They need to do whatever it takes to insure that this is not just Garver's "career year" outlier. And Garver should take some off-season lessons from Max Kepler, and focus on improving his production against same-handed pitching. Perhaps he could slip into a more limited part-time catching/part-time DH or 1B role after Cruz/Cron are gone and help Garver productively extend his carer into his mid-30s.
  12. Pineda has been suspended for breaking the rules previously. The Twins knew the risks with Pineda, and the arbitrator reducing the suspension from 80 to 60 games does little to mitigate this disastrous outcome for the Twins post-season chances.
  13. The Indians traded- from a position of excess- a headcase distraction in Bauer, and acquired a headcase distraction (Puig) and a NL defensive liability (Reyes), in return. Plus, the Indians got another player and 2 prospects. Finding another team in a position of SP excess- AND- willing to deal like this is difficult, if not highly unlikely- in the Indians case, it took a 3-team deal to make it happen.
  14. Once the book is out on him (Anderson)? He's been a major league pitcher for nearly a full season, and he's actually drastically IMPROVING his numbers (every MLB team has fully comprehensive video on demand on every big league pitcher).
  15. At the current incredible rate of attrition, should the Twins seriously consider calling up Kiriloff and Balazovic?
  16. Looking on the bright side... this should make Pineda easier and cheaper to re-sign in the offseason
  17. One more reason why the Twins should have acquired that extra SP in July.
  18. Exactly. Not enough people are aware of how unusual Fenway is relative to any other ballpark. LF, RF and CF configurations are all downright strange, and pose a challenge of sensory adjustment to visiting OFers. For a guy who only plays 3 games here/year, it's amazing how perfectly Rosario played both the carom and made the perfect throw home with his back to the infield.
  19. Yes. Anderson is a rookie and has made a bigger impact than Rosario has in his 5th season. Anderson plays at a position of current extreme need. Anderson has produced at a position of need more than Rosario has at a position of surplus. The coup de grace? Anderson is one of only FOUR pitchers (out of over 400) who have a K/9 greater than 15. Of the 18 LFers who have qualified ABs, Rosario ranks FIFTEENTH with his fWAR of 1.1- he's producing just barely above Robbie Grossman's 1.0. Robbie Grossman? In summary- The Twins have a surplus of high-rated prospect and door-knocking OFers. The Twins have a passel-full of prospect but unproven MLB-level pitchers. Anderson has 5 more years of inexpensive control. Rosario is expensive, and will be gone sooner or later, but no later than 2021. Bottom line: Effective, proven MLB-level pitchers are scarcer than corner OFers. Hard to visualize the Twins getting a good #3 SP for Rosario except giving up more prospects- not many teams with surplus quality arms.
  20. Jaylin Davis debuts in RF tonight for the Giants. Here's a capsule review from NBC Sports: An infield hit and a BB for Davis. I must admit, I didn't know Davis possessed this much speed. Nice combo with his power burst. The Giants press is giddy about a guy they assumed was just another power bat. The article has a quote from Davis, as well. Seems like he has a nice shot at a decent major league career. 24th round draft pick by the Twins. Kudos to Ricky Taylor, who signed him ( I hope he got the proper love from the previous and current FO for his fine work). You can't fault the Twins for making the move, hopefully it works out for the best for both teams. It was just very unfortunate that the Twins couldn't have worked out a larger deal with the Giants that involved Bumgarner and additional Twins prospects in the transaction.
  21. Nick Anderson now has 2 fWAR for the season. (Anderson = Rogers) Eddie Rosario has 1.1 fWAR for the season. Pretty simple to do the math.
  22. September 3 "Fearless Nick Anderson" update: Innings Pitched- 1.1 (High Leverage situation) Batters faced- 4 Strikeouts- 4 Swinging Ks- 3 K/9- 27 K%- 100% Pitches- 18 Pitches In Strike Zone- 17 ( 2 mistakenly called balls) FBs- 15 (Avg ~96 MPH) Sliders- 3 (2 for swinging Strike 3s) ERA- 0.00 FIP- -2.78 Maybe "Supremely Confident Nick Anderson" would be a better moniker? (I'd settle for even one more Nick Anderson on the current Twins roster).
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