jokin

. As a Twins fan, I'll take Dombrowski.

Because it's "more" important to have 13 pitchers than another legit bench bat. (Too bad the Twins couldn't have swung a trade for Valencia just for this series... actually might still be a good idea for a RH bench bat when they finally come back to their senses and go back to 12 pitchers, as always, Danny's crushing LHP again this season).

Yep, May nearly put up 2 fWAR in the first 3 months (and a day) to lead Twins pitchers. Not so much in the last month- since h'es become a reliever, all of 0.1 fWAR.

No cherry-picking on my part. I first listed the season stats- 5.8 IP/start for Pelfrey, 5.4 IP/start for May- plus the season pitch counts. I then chose each player's last 9 starts, indicating where they were/are at in a Starter's role, and juxtabposed May's first 9 relief appearances, as well. May was on a stretch of mostly very strong performances, with one hiccup in his second to last start. And he nearly had three 7-inning games during the his last 9 games, the same as Pelfrey. Over much of the same stretch, with a month or so overlapping, Pelfrey has been anywhere from very bad, to very mediocre, to very good. I chose this methodology because "What have you done for me lately?"... is far more appropriate to project how each might do in the short-run... vs taking the season's body of work as a whole. Are any of us expecting that Pelfrey is likely to repeat another stretch like his early run of innings-eating success again?... or more likely to be much more resembling the Mike Pelfrey from 2010 to 2014?

You did notice that I acknowledged that fact in the first paragraph? While Pelf's been a pleasant surprise at times... there's no denying that he's also been the model of inconsistency, especially in his last 9 starts, and there's nothing to chuckle about with his total net results. And honestly ask yourself this question, who would you rather have start in a key game in the stretch run, or say, Game 3 in the ALDS?

A lot of debate lately on the Twins rotation and May's evolving role. "Solving" the game of musical chairs problem has led to a building pile of unanticipated consequences. Due to Tommy Milone's injury, an unproven rookie has now been called up to debut in an away game- in the midst of the most pivotal series for the Twins so far this year (ie, Tyler Duffey vs. the best-hitting team in baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays, on Wednesday). Meanwhile, Pelfrey has silenced the critics for now with a brilliant performance on Sunday vs. the Mariners. Here are some of the recent posts regarding the May situation: And the following is my reprint with the pertinent data, vis a vis May vs. Pelfrey. 1) Regarding Trevor May and the Twins explaining their intentions for him, starting on July 1 to August 2: I'm sure he's been talked to, but Molitor showed his hand early on when May was moved out of the rotation; when questioned by reporters, he said that keeping him in a limbo role- aka "The Plan"- with the Twins won out over sending him down and continuing to start him in the AAA rotation. May no doubt is a good soldier, but I have to think his head was spinning when he got his talking to. He led all starters in fWAR for the month of April, as well as for the months of May and June combined... and he was actually getting better from mid-May until his demotion after his start on July 1 (*** check the stats on his last 9 starts below). 2) If it really, truly, "isn't about May at all", maybe it should have been? 3) Milone was very effective for the month leading up to the ASG, but wouldn't it have been nice to have been able to plug May into his slot 2 starts sooner when Milone was obviously struggling, post ASG? And are we just to assume that Milone returns to his June form after his DL stint? 4) Here is a pretty comprehensive summary of the comparable data measuring each pitcher's recent effectiveness and (alleged) innings-eating capabilities: Before today's game, strictly SP comps: Pelfrey eats up innings Pelfrey- 5.8 IP/Start May- 5.4 IP/Start Pelfrey manages his pitch count Pelfrey- 91.2 Pitches/gm 63.4% Str% May- 86.4 Pitches/gm 66.2% Str% May is shining in the pen Yes, but in 10 relief appearances, he's pitched in 2 high lev situations and 0 medium lev. His velocity is up but his K/9 and K% are actually lower than when he was a starter. Pelfrey eats up innings Pt. 2 In his last 9 starts, counting Sunday's 8 IP effort, Pelfrey has gone 7 or 8 IP a grand total of THREE TIMES. In his last 9 starts, May went 7 IP a grand total of THREE TIMES (OK, one of those 3 was 6.2 IP) ***May is shining in the pen Pt 2 (but he was also shining in the rotation, and had improved quite a bit on his season's stats previous to that point in time [May 16- July 1]) In his last 9 starts, May averaged 5.6 IP. K/9 8.40 BB/9 1.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.75/3.23/3.62 In his last 9 starts, Pelfrey avrgd. 5.7 IP. K/9 4.56 BB/9 2.98 ERA/FIP/xFIP 5.44/4.70/4.45 May throwing 97 out of the pen has value. Comp above to May's first 9 relief apprncs K/9 6.97 BB/9 1.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.48/3.67/4.60 Conclusions: 1) When strictly comping the stats for the 2, Pelfrey was/is clearly the inferior choice to start, and he doesn't significantly eat more innings. 2) May's peripherals demonstrated that he has actually been less effective in a relief role than as a starter, and obviously, he hasn't been able to help the team in his current evolving role nearly as much as he did through July 1 in his previous role. 3) The Twins, instead of putting May into a limbo role, needed to bolster their bullpen, before the AS break- from outside the organization or from the minors, or both. They knew about the impending Santana situation crowding the rotation from Day One, they also knew that Boyer, Stauffer and Fien were poor options for the 7h-8th innings from just a few days after Day One.

I'm sure he's been talked to, but Molitor showed his hand early on when May was moved out of the rotation; when questioned by reporters, he said that keeping him in a limbo role- aka "The Plan"- with the Twins won out over sending him down and continuing to start him in the AAA rotation. May no doubt is a good soldier, but I have to think his head was spinning when he got his talking to. He led all starters in fWAR for the month of April, as well as for the months of May and June combined... and he was actually getting better from mid-May until his demotion after his start on July 1 (*** check the stats on his last 9 starts below). I'm sorry, but the stats just don't back up your claims here, whatsoever. Before today's game, SP comps: Pelfrey eats up innings Pelfrey- 5.8 IP/Start May- 5.4 IP/Start Pelfrey manages his pitch count Pelfrey- 91.2 Pitches/gm 63.4% Str% May- 86.4 Pitches/gm 66.2% Str% May is shining in the pen Yes, but in 10 relief appearances, he's pitched in 2 high lev situations and 0 medium lev. His velocity is up but his K/9 and K% are actually lower than when he was a starter. Pelfrey eats up innings Pt. 2 In his last 9 starts, counting Sunday's 8 IP effort, Pelfrey has gone 7 or 8 IP a grand total of THREE TIMES. In his last 9 starts, May went 7 IP a grand total of THREE TIMES (OK, one of those 3 was 6.2 IP) ***May is shining in the pen Pt 2 (but he was also shining in the rotation, and had improved quite a bit on his season's stats previous to that point in time [May 16- July 1]) In his last 9 starts, May averaged 5.6 IP. K/9 8.40 BB/9 1.79 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.75/3.23/3.62 In his last 9 starts, Pelfrey avrgd. 5.7 IP. K/9 4.56 BB/9 2.98 ERA/FIP/xFIP 5.44/4.70/4.45 May throwing 97 out of the pen has value. Comp above to May's first 9 relief apprncs K/9 6.97 BB/9 1.74 ERA/FIP/xFIP 3.48/3.67/4.60 Conclusions: 1) When strcitly comping the stats for the 2, Pelfrey was/is clearly the inferior choice to start, and he doesn't significantly eat more innings. 2) May's peripherals demonstrated that he has actually been less effective in a relief role than as a starter, and obviously, he hasn't been able to help the team in his current evolving role nearly as much as he did through July 1 in his previous role. 3) The Twins, instead of putting May into a limbo role, needed to bolster their bullpen, before the AS break- from outside the organization or from the minors, or both.

To paraphrase Harrison Ford: How dare YOU, Sirs! Even if it isn't about May, it should be. May is already "looking good" and already "gotten a look" and already proven that "he can help."

I'm sorry, but Ryan has demonstrated a history of risk-aversion that the only time he enters a bidding war is against himself (Nolasco, Pelfrey, Suzuki, et al). Doesn't a GM who has survived the negotiation battles in over a 20+ year track record have to "get it done regardless" more than once, just to have maintained his job credibility? (And remember, this is a GM who, when asked about the Shannon Stewart as his greatest mid-season trade, instead focused on his salary dump trades, citing the Scott Erickson deal as his greatest trade in that context).

I guess I'm more resigned to being patient. I didn't want them to foolishly disrupt the franchise, but with 29 teams to deal with, 29 different situations, and probably over $100 M coming in from the National TV deal, local broadcasting and revenue sharing, there had to be wiggle room to "overpay" in terms of money, without giving up the crown jewels.

They probably always start out absurd, but hopefully a GM/Executive for 20+ years has certainly read a number of books like: Go for No! Yes is the Destination, No is How You Get There ...

In which case, the onus is on Ryan to get whomever is calling not to hang up, but to listen to what Ryan can do for them. The guy's been drafting in a top 6 slot- or better- for 4 seasons now, there should be a lot more shiny baubles to babble about than just the Big 3.

Part of the source "of this misplaced frustration" is the fact that: 1) Ryan finally did go out and spend gobs of money (OK, Twins-like gobs of money) last offseason, 2) they did make some wholesale changes in managmement- which has resulted in a much-needed philosophical and cultural shift, 3) and most of the best prospects have arrived and have largely produced and in the process transformed the team's expectations. 4) And of course, if the season ended today, they'd be in the playoffs! To have accomplished all of this so far in 2015, and done nothing to make the team obviously better by deadline day is headscratchingly odd. To add to the frustration, the Twins were linked by reliable sources, including one of those here at Twins Daily, that they were going after the right players who could have made a huge difference, and most importantly- with the right teams. By that, I mean aggressive or clueless teams like San Diego and Colorado (why weren't there more rumors about a deal with Miami? with Philly? with Billy Beane?) . Toronto absolutely stole Tulo from the Rockies, one of the best 5 players in baseball, and made nary a dent in their farm system, and with a 25-man roster with 6 ex-Twins castoffs (3 pitchers). Their farm system has never been rated near the Twins. And a potential Twins trade with Colorado wasn't some video game fantasy, there was solidly-sourced buzz from multiple sources that the Twins were actively talking with the Rockies. And the same with the Padres and James Shields and Upton, I doubt Jeremy Nygaard put his name on the line over nothing. The only conclusions one can draw up are; 1) Ryan felt the asking price was too high and is unwilling or unable to steer the negotiations in another direction more to his liking, 2) The hit to payroll was prohibitve and nixed by ownership, 3) Or that, notwithstanding what the experts say, there evidently aren't enough "hot prospects" in the system that other teams are willing to buy lottery tickets on. And this then is back on the Twins, particularly regarding the pitching development, some have called it bad luck, but how is it possible that virtually every one of their hard-throwing top-25 pitching prospects have fallen off the cliff (or are injured) in just one offseason? (Really, who thought that O'Rourke would be the only prospect-net-positive fWAR contributor to the pitching staff this year? [Graham and Tonkin are negative fWAR]).

+1 This sort of treatment may have very well worked in the case of Hicks to finally get his act together.

Yeah, just another in a series of moves in the last month that are about as strategically meaningful and difference-making as adding Jepsen to the pen.

Better be prepared looking ahead to '16 earlier rather than later, then? ( What with the 4 game series in Toronto, and the Blue Jays the favorites in taking at least 3 of 4, the Twins are likely to have already slipped a couple of games behind in the race on August 6, who would have thought that possible just a couple weeks ago? The Blue Jays just moved Dickey up a day early to Sunday vs. KC and gave the Twins yet another look at Price by moving him back to Monday).

How so, this year? He's likely not to play in the field more than once a week until they really fall out of the race.

Why don't you all just f-f-f-fade away? http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/d1d3994fb8b9c1ab021854bdf27d69d279ab2a63.jpg

But then again, Capps was an All Star, too.

And it leans more to the exasperating side when you comp Jepsen's unfavorable FIP/xFIP of 4.13/4.10, luck-related BABIP of .254 (vs Broxton's .346) juxtaposed with your aforementioned nearly double the BB% of Broxton.

Or maybe 2 shortstops?

They even kept dealing until the last possible minute before the deadline, and that was apparently only just to get a platoon/4th OF (Revere).

Jepsen is the 8th inning guy until further notice. Molitor has done his utmost to avoid putting May into many high leverage situations, in his 8 relief appearances, only 2 qualified as high leverage, 0 as medium leverage.

+1. Ouch, that one left a big fat mark.

Toronto has 6 ex-Twins, and their farm system isn't ranked nearly as high as the Twins, and yet, they found a way to significantly improve their team with multiple deals, in both the previous offseason and this month's blockbuster deals, they could easily pass the Twins for the last wild card spot next week during hteir 4-game series.. IMO, you're going to have to make a better case for feasibility than the Twins weak shcedule- in order to sketch out how the Twns can possibly stay in playoff contention.