You’re entitled to your own opinion. That being said, I disagree.
It seems lazy to simply say, “If he were going to, he would’ve.” I don’t think it’s fair at all to say that there’s a 0% chance Buxton signs an extension here. Has he indicated he wants out? I haven’t heard anything. Why the FO waited so long to extend him isn’t hard to figure out. He has had one (1) season where he’s played 100+ games. Staying on the field has been a continuous problem for him. It’s so inconsistent that it would IMO be a bad decision to hastily hand him a 5 year/$125M deal. It’s incredibly risky. I wouldn’t advise it.
Also, 0% chance of filling the holes in the pitching staff? Why? Why can’t they sign the bullpen arms and starters they need? Their pitching pipeline will also starting producing more next year (hopefully). This sounds more like an, “I don’t trust the FO to fill the holes,” rather than an, “I don’t think it’s physically possible for them to fill the holes.”