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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    The awesome Lou Scheimer / Hal Sutherland / Norm Prescott* screen capture alone would have earned you a Like. * Complete with anatomically improbable Filmation goodness
  2. ashbury
    MadLibs time. Everyone, suggest a suitable substitution. I'll go with "editor", just to get the proceedings off on a low-hanging-fruit note.
  3. ashbury
    Understood, but I was trying to get some kind of intuition about what fWAR values. Because it doesn't seem to be "going deep into games".
  4. ashbury
    After he is confirmed, expect to see visuals like this (minus the snarky captions) in campaign materials from here until the first week of November.
  5. ashbury
    Don't you forget it.
  6. ashbury
    WAR = [[([(League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Pitcher Specific Runs Per Win] + Replacement Level) * (IP/9)] * Leverage Multiplier for Relievers] + League Correction When FIP is about the same for two starters, and the innings pitched are very different, I don't quite see how the basic formula (above) would reach the conclusion of equal WAR. So it must be somewhere down in the arcana of the full formula, which is beyond my pay grade and mostly wouldn't differ for two teammates. I didn't spot what that would be. Maybe something screwy in the infield fly count.
  7. ashbury
    You don't think a 15+% greater workload plays a part in a pitcher's value?
  8. ashbury
    Yep. He has yet to answer a direct question from the minority with a direct answer, sometimes interrupting to answer what he'd rather talk about. If this Supreme Court gig doesn't work out, he can always be the president's press secretary. He's adept at spin. Or, with Michael Cohen gone, maybe he can be the president's fixer.
  9. ashbury
    Unless you had a purpose in using this thread title... Game Thread: Twins @ Indians, 9/25/18 @ 7:10 PM CT ...I will take the liberty of editing it to reflect the Tigers being the opponent and the day being the 27th. Also I see a Cleveland weather forecast.
  10. ashbury
    bWAR doesn't concur, 1.6 vs 3.5. And perhaps it's because Odorizzi put up similar FIP but in 26 fewer innings across 32 starts (actually 1 more start than Gibby). Odo puts approximately an extra inning of burden on the bullpen. That's really quite a differential in value delivered. No lamentation required.
  11. ashbury
    Concur, and I'll state it slightly differently: the problem isn't moving players to the majors too slowly, it's developing players too slowly.
  12. ashbury
    Cornyn denies that this is a job interview. He says these are criminal allegations, and to vote against Kavanaugh means to say the allegations are true. Dis-concur, senator. To vote for a judicial appointee means you are sure. A vote against can simply mean, try again, Mr President. The sense of entitlement on Kavanaugh's behalf continues to astound me.
  13. ashbury
    I don't know the processes either, but I am guessing that there is a ton of "chatter" going on, via all available sources of input, to each senator's office, during a confirmation hearing. There might be various "this Kavanaugh dude didn't pay me when I painted his house, here are my invoices as proof", sorts of incoming messages. Assault and attempted rape isn't on that scale, but anonymity is a negative, and there might be a dozen accusations at a given time that need to be fleshed out in one manner or another before telling the committee chair, "I think you need to know about this." For all we know, Ford asked her not to, until she was sure she herself could carry through. I just expect that the everyday complexity of being a senator makes it hard to guess whether an approach was anywhere near the worst. Kavanaugh's the one who wants to be approved for high office, so it's poor form to be complaining that someone with possibly criminal evidence didn't do it right.
  14. ashbury
    Don't you think there's an argument to be made not to take an irreversible step (such as going to the committee) when the accusation is anonymous? Until the accuser is ready to face the accused, there's no substance to go on.
  15. ashbury
    Both of these guys have become more potent offensive pieces than they were. I wouldn't use them as examples of analytics gone wrong. Analytics tries to guide teams how to do better. Making the game more fun for fans is the area for the rules-makers. I'd go with a less-tightly wound baseball to address the main problem, and then later adjust other things like mound height to compensate, if batters don't adjust with two-strike counts and keep swinging for the fences futilely.
  16. ashbury
    I dunno. Unassisted triple plays are rarer than perfect games. That being the case, the coach pretty much had to send that fourth runner - the odds of an unassisted quadruple play have to be close to zero. You always want to put pressure on the defense, and this required the catcher to make two long-odds plays in a row. But somehow our latter-day Bill Wambsganss found a way and achieved baseball immortality anyway.
  17. ashbury
    Is that what analytics says? Studies have shown that launch-angle tradeoffs can be to the hitter's advantage, but I doubt any studies have glorified warning track power.
  18. ashbury
    Moderator's note: Just a reminder, try to not make it personal or get overly sarcastic when making an observation like that to anyone. The comparison can be made just as well, by asking straightforwardly.
  19. ashbury
    I didn't see a game thread up, so I started one, even though I can't really stay... just to say: Jake Cave is not a reliable center fielder. Ash out.
  20. ashbury
    Likely worst catching, as well.
  21. ashbury
    A DH who hits so well that players sit on the bench during their days off, because their participation would weaken the team if they DH'ed, would be all right with me. Ehire has been in a lineup as DH 4 times in his Twins career and that's 4 times too many.
  22. ashbury
    Joe's not the hitter Harmon was, but this is probably going too far. Harmon would get on base at a clip in the high .300s when his leagues' average was in the low .300s, and he was the league leader in walks several times. I suppose one can lead the league in something bad without intending to, but leading the league in something positive indicates purpose. Clearly his walks were due to being pitched extraordinarily carefully, moreso than some superhuman batting eye, but it indicates that he didn't give in to the pitcher when he wasn't being given good pitches to hit. OBP was a known statistic even back in the day. I'd be interested in seeing an interview in which Harmon was asked about his walk totals. I bet his thoughtfulness on the topic would surprise some. I'd be surprised if he didn't feel that his walks were helping his team. And so I bet if he were here, to be asked, he'd praise Joe for getting on base the way he has done. He might also have slipped Joe the needle about power.
  23. ashbury
    It would be a lot easier if the offense wasn't making it so that 4 runs will beat you. Do you recall what kind of statistical technique they used to separate the two? They are so highly correlated.
  24. ashbury
    I've stopped hoping for poor outcomes in the interest of long term electoral gains. Remember back in 2015 and early 2016 when some Democrats expressed wishes that Trump would be nominated because it would result in an electoral landslide up and down the ballot? The country is a lot more hard-right than I ever imagined.
  25. ashbury
    Rosenstein's Wikipedia page says he was nominated for his job by Trump. At first blush that would seem to indicate Trump could remove him, but maybe there's a better source of that information. OTOH Trump nominated a Supreme Court justice or two, and they can be removed only by the Senate, so it's really unclear. Trump was "credited" with firing Sally Yates, from the same position, but maybe that is political shorthand.
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