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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    It happened some. I don't know if it was a "lot". But even a few of these tends to raise the run total from below average to above average. But... it happens to other teams too. Someone with 'leet stats skills needs to define some things, and then run the numbers for me.
  2. ashbury
    Moderator's Note: ftfy Folks, when in disagreement with someone, please stick to the facts as you see them, and don't try to characterize the people with whom you disagree. When in doubt, choose to not make it personal. (I chose to be concrete this time by providing an alternate version of someone's post, not to limit the observation to that one person, or to this particular thread. It's been cropping up lately. And please don't divert this thread to the tangent of moderation, instead take it to the appropriate part of the forum if you feel the need to discuss.)
  3. ashbury
    It depends on the makeup of the team around him. Picture a team with a lot of low-OBP sluggers (doubles and home runs); replace the worst one with a crafty guy who can get on base but has absolutely no power at the top of the order, and scoring may take a big jump upward, seemingly out of proportion to that one guy. But on a team that already has a lot of guys getting on base with scratch singles and walks, getting another guy like that to replace the worst guy might not improve matters a whole lot, with 3 or even 4 baserunners per inning still needed to score one measly run. On an average team with average OPS made up of some on-base guys and some sluggers, I'd guess that you want to look at OPS or other "runs created" kinds of numbers for the new guy too, and not just OBP.Rules of thumb like adding up OPS work in middle of the road scenarios, but I think there are some non-linearities that crop up when you get away from the median. Extreme outliers, either of a team or (particularly) of a player, make the analysis harder. I would guess that a team can handle having two high-OBP but empty-SLG hitters. Adding a third starts to be a problem in lineup construction, having more is bad. If you already have two, find someone else.
  4. ashbury
    I rambled. Let me say it again this way. I would not like to take the offense we had in 2014 in to the post-season, had we been so lucky. It would have gotten shut down by the caliber of pitching seen in October, to a greater degree than the offenses we do see competing now. Game 162, a shutout against Price, sealed that emerging opinion for me.
  5. ashbury
    In addition to the other responses to this, it seemed to me that the offense was more feast-and-famine. Anecdotally, they could score runs against starters who didn't have it that day, or once the bullpen was reached. What is needed is not just the mean (runs/game) but the standard deviation, which would be easy to calculate if anyone (me included) took the time; I don't know what the league average for this would be but it wouldn't surprise me if ours was high, due to the total runs being padded in several laughers. Of course every team has laughers, which is why I wish a number was handy. Our offense scored some runs, better than I expected back in March, but still overall seemed soft to me, and it wouldn't take much to have a dropoff. It could also solidify in 2015, or even improve, as the youngsters have a chance to improve. I don't feel confident predicting which way things go. We're near some kind of turning point but things right now are in a big state of flux.
  6. ashbury
    The '87 Twins were a magnificently crafted roster including two stud starters to carry you through short series and a catcher who will nail runners at third base at the drop of a hat.
  7. ashbury
    I once attended a talk given by Benoit Mandelbrot, the dude who is associated with Fractals. A point he made that has stuck with me through the years is that we deal with random numbers when we don't yet have a good enough grasp of the underlying process. I'm fine with viewing playoffs as a crapshoot, but at the same time I wouldn't want to discourage someone from trying to identify characteristics that make for a World Series winner, even if it remains somewhat probabilistic.
  8. ashbury
    ....nah, never mind, you're right, carry on.
  9. ashbury
    http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/facepalm-triple.jpg "NONE of you guys brought the pizza rolls?" cf. Parker's "Mom made pizza rolls" meme some time back...
  10. ashbury
    Hicks just completed his age-24 season. Schafer today at age 28 and Fuld at 30+ aren't comparables for such discussions. OPS gains of .100 from one season to the next are not uncommon at Hicks's age. Going again without a legitimate Plan B on the 40-man roster would be foolish of course - this is true no matter how good your starter is. But I would lean toward Hicks as my starting CF in 2015 unless he flounders during spring training, and if he needs to be sent down to AAA I still wouldn't flush him from the organizational depth chart unless he failed again in 2016 (when he would then have no minor league options left).
  11. ashbury
    And getting thrown out going for two would still net you your single for the AB and PA.
  12. ashbury
    I vote for this. Setting a major league record that is highly unlikely to ever be broken is always fun.
  13. ashbury
    Rogers had a large icepack on his left wrist before the game on Friday, and after the game on Friday and then on Saturday it looked like a small cast, probably a removable one. I didn't think his shoulder was involved.
  14. ashbury
    I believe it was the final two batters of the game, and here is what AFL's website "Gameday" page for them shows: Hector Gomez: ball, foul, swinging strike, called strike Nick ("You Killed Kenny You") Basto: foul, swinging strike, ball, out to CF That doesn't pin it down, unless I'm correct in remembering that on the first guy it wasn't the first pitch where it happened. That would rule out it being called a ball. Don't know if a foul or swinging strike would be the one. Too bad the brains of my family wasn't keeping his scorebook that evening.
  15. ashbury
    I don't think we saw more than one bad plate appearance from him per game, if that. The hits were stroked, and even the outs tended to be at'em balls. My only quibbles were that nothing much was hit for power, and he was surprisingly slow down the first base line the one time I remember him trying to leg something out (not slow like a catcher, I was just expecting him to make it close and it wound up routine). He has stolen some bases. Quibbles, like I say.
  16. ashbury
    One other plug for the AFL, in case anyone else is considering making the trip: no between-innings malarky1, like dizzy bats or mascot races. People are there for the baseball. 1OK, in fairness, I'll admit that in the middle of the seventh they do play this old-timey song about what it's like going to a baseball game. Some of the locals seem to know the words, and they sing along. Must be an Arizona thing. Charming.
  17. ashbury
    Jake certainly pitched himself into trouble in the bottom of the ninth in a one-run game. In a different situation, a new reliever might have been brought in, but apparently in the AFL you simply relieve yourself on the mound. It worked out. Of note that inning were two consecutive batters who appeared to get hit in the hand but were not awarded first base (which would have scored a run each). I don't recall if they were swinging at the pitch, but the umpire was most definite in his ruling and Lance Parrish (manager) didn't argue either time as far as I recall. After some internet browsing, I see that it's not as simple as "the hand is part of the bat," despite the old saying. So I'd like to know a little more about the umpire's reasoning.
  18. ashbury
    I figured that was meant as the joke leading off the article.
  19. ashbury
    I read the above to my son. He said, "Mom doesn't keep score". I told him, "you don't know anything about women". As for having good sons, Chief is in a position to know.
  20. ashbury
    Rogers left because he got nicked on his pitching forearm by a batted ball. Chief and I watched the trainer (one in a Twins uniform) tend to him, in the opponents' bullpen for some reason. After a while they departed for somewhere hidden in the bowels of the ballpark. Rogers had been able to make the throw to get the batter out, and it didn't appear he was in any signficant discomfort while the trainer was looking at him, so I'm hopeful it's just a mild contusion. The 15-day Day To Day list, as Chief said. Lesson learned, I hope - avoid using the meat-hand for fielding purposes. Not mentioned above was Zach Jones who got in two innings of work. I was impressed with his off-speed pitches - curve or change or both? - that froze several batters, including for third strikes. Nice complement to his 95+ fastball. However, he gave up a ringing ground rule double (nearly a homer) on a 77 MPH pitch, so it remains to be seen whether he can avoid Anthony Slama Disease, i.e. get the knock on him that the pitches taken for strikes in the minors won't translate to the majors. Still, I'm hopeful he can continue to disguise his pitches to the better hitters, and this is what the AFL is for. Max's assist in RF was a very nice throw to nail a runner going to third.
  21. ashbury
    Normalized to the league, Plouffe's 2014 OPS of .751 was good for 110 OPS+. We do have two other world series winners to compare to: Gaetti's OPS of .788 in 1987 only comes to 102 OPS+, and Pagliarulo's 1991 OPS of .706 comes to a paltry 91 OPS+. (Scotty Leius did supplement Pags at third, in one of the more successful platoons in Twins history, so that their combined production was probably about in line with Plouffe's season.) Ah yes, I overlooked another world series Twins team, one that didn't win it all. 1965 had the legendary Rich Rollins and his .641 (OPS+ 79). Others have debated the substance of your position, but I couldn't let this Twins-specific aspect of it go without comment. It seems clear to me that a team could win with Trevor Plouffe at third base if he keeps up present production, and without the manager having to go to great lengths to work around him. 1991 was more of a challenge and required some actual Managin'TM for the position.
  22. ashbury
    Mauer will have to stand in line for his chance to punch TC Bear.
  23. ashbury
    If I read TD, I would laugh at this very funny post.
  24. ashbury
    Will this be enough, or should he go old-school and also punch some sides of beef? Cross-train, sez I.
  25. ashbury
    At one time, at least, you could find YouTube footage of Darin Mastroianni giving an interview in Spanish. Darin for manager!
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