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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Age and league is pretty fundamental to how I project a prospect's progress, but only in the context of their performance. Age does serve as a proxy for having a complete scouting report on a guy, though. I'm letting them do my homework for me, if I say a guy has a chance to be a star. "He's in Ft Myers at age 20? Guess the team thinks a lot of him. Could be in the majors in a couple of years. That other guy there, he's 25; even though he's hitting better, it could be hard for him to get a cup of coffee." Ya think? Number of years of pro experience also matters. I'm more lenient waiting for a struggling 24 year old who came out of college than if he was signed as a free agent from the Dominican Republic at 16. And outliers like Colabello, who didn't face tough competition in his early twenties, throws off such gauges as well. I was once 20 years old, and it wouldn't have done a team's prospect list any good to put me at AAA.
  2. ashbury
    I don't think it works that way. Molitor isn't going to hold a team meeting, "OK guys, nice job with the clutch hits on offense and the timely GIDP on defense yesterday. Today, we need to stay in sync as well. Hitters, take a few more fat pitches for strikes. Pitchers, let's try to be a little too fine, OK? Let's see if we can lose 9-0, and really screw up that Pythag projection the poindexters love so much." IMO it's up to Molitor to get the Twins to play well.
  3. ashbury
    They worked something out.
  4. ashbury
    Minor quibble, I believe the teams still have the choice to work something out. That's how Scott Diamond wound up pitching a lot for Rochester in 2011, for example.
  5. ashbury
    I guess commentators like to be dismissive of certain teams and heap praise on others. The group of teams changes with time of course - so I'm basically calling such writers front-runners. The Fangraphs writeup when Ervin signed with the Braves last March said, "Where the Braves are on the win curve, it was vital for them to replace Medlen with someone at least close to as talented." Santana's basically the same pitcher as last time, but now (and it's a different writer, I realize) it's the Twins signing him, so the "praise" must be snide and dismissive.
  6. ashbury
    #54 in honor of Matt Guerrier?
  7. ashbury
    Or... enjoy some baseball.
  8. ashbury
    And yet, teams have to make decisions all the time - this player or that player, how much to offer, etc. Maybe you use some different word than projections, to describe how they do it. And I might add, semi-donning my moderator's cap, that this digression probably deserves a thread of its own if someone wants to carry it further, especially given that the topic of the thread itself remains active and of interest.
  9. ashbury
    Displaying digits after the decimal point: shame on them. Paying any attention to digits after the decimal point: shame on you. If they think there is any value in what they do, it's not what comes after the decimal point. Judge them on that. (Which, I assume, is actually what you are doing - just not saying.)
  10. ashbury
    Here's a list someone came up with a while back: https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090118165605AAb4hf8 Gene Bearden comes closest to "famous", after the two you named.
  11. ashbury
    Yeah, but in fairness, that's how he always did it.
  12. ashbury
    Twins have 20 pitchers and 20 hitters on the 40-man, after adding rule-5 pitcher Graham. I assume a pitcher will go, to make room. A trade in the offing? (Duensing, Nolasco?) If not, someone is exposed to waivers - maybe Thompson? With teams' 40-man rosters filling up, maybe it's easier to get someone cleared now.
  13. ashbury
    Please. Go on....
  14. ashbury
    Either that bar table is on a slant, or else I've already had too much to drink and it's not even 1 pm my time!
  15. ashbury
    And 'to'.
  16. ashbury
    If he pitches well next year, would he sign one?
  17. ashbury
    At the tender age of 36, Ryan Vogelsong has yet to be sent to the mound to start an inning 200 times in a season. But maybe age 37 will be the year. Note: could make the same observation about 30-year-old Francisco Liriano and his age-31 year.
  18. ashbury
    One way a Vogelsong signing would make sense to me is if Nolasco and the Twins have mutually soured on each other and Ryan has a deal in place to move him. Such a deal would probably involve almost nothing in return, assuming the other team takes on the full salary, and in that case Vogelsong might be viewed as providing similar performance at a lower cost to the Twins.
  19. ashbury
    If you're worried you can't give your money away, we should talk. Ones aren't beneath my dignity where donations are concerned.
  20. ashbury
    He might still be a little too low in the minors, but I'll throw out Max Murphy as a breakout candidate.
  21. ashbury
    Teens apply their customized home-and-away factors, while spouses have the option of considering "Above Replacement Level".
  22. ashbury
    See? That's why it was so much tougher to pitch then. All that pressure. Pitchers today have it easy.
  23. ashbury
    One of the interview questions with Terry Ryan at the Torii Hunter introduction press conference was, "are you surprised it [he?] took a one year contract?". Terry twitched and suppressed a smile and basically used every single one of his facial muscles before replying "no". http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/ (Second short video in the sequence.) My reaction is that, while poker is not my game and I am terrible at it, if by chance he and I were ever at a table, I'd be looking for that "tell" sometime when he raised.
  24. ashbury
    Great photo, BTW. He offered a comparison to Britney, but I think he sells himself short. / not
  25. ashbury
    I don't think expiring contracts have brought much in trade ever since they changed the draft compensation rules. The draft pick no longer goes along with the player - *poof* goes the value.
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