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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Time flies when you're doing great work, huh?
  2. ashbury
    Perhaps true, but this is a site focused on the Minnesota Twins, not on other posters. (Moderator's note: Hint hint.)
  3. ashbury
    I'm not in favor of ever again spending a high first-round draft pick on a stud catcher. I've laid out my reasons before, and won't belabor them now. The same logic somewhat guides my feelings about trading for a top-end talent like Realmuto. I would not include Royce Lewis in a deal to get him, even taking into account the uncertainty of a prospect versus an established veteran. It would be too much like drafting Realmuto 1-1. Allowing 20/20 hindsight adds a guy like Berrios to that rank - not drafted as high, but if GMs were given a do-over in the 2012 draft JO would have gone much much higher, I would imagine. OTOH, I doubt there is very much disagreement that a do-over would have us pick someone else than Nick Gordon. His lofty draft status wouldn't prevent me from considering including him in a package to get Realmuto. So I don't mean literally that I would not trade first rounders. It's basically just my way of justifying to myself not to trade Lewis or someone at his level for a catcher, no matter how good. Stud catchers are generally the domain for very rich teams, or teams for which all other holes have been filled. I'd love to get Realmuto, I'm just not willing to pay the price that he probably has attached to him. I'd be fine with a far lower price in prospects for one of the other catching upgrades mentioned in this thread, as part-year rentals, if we continue to hang around the periphery of the AL Central lead. We lack anything resembling a complete player at that position.
  4. ashbury
    Probably a good question, but for a different thread.
  5. ashbury
    This past off-season it was $17.4M. That's a lot to pay for one year of a player's services. I don't think I want to make a QO to Dozier; he saw the soft market this past off-season, same as we did, and could decide the smart way would be to take the $17M and play it year to year from there on. Such a payday would put him halfway toward what he might receive for a 3-year deal on the open market. Maybe he sees it differently and would turn down the QO, thus rolling the dice. I wouldn't take that chance, as a GM. No way would I pay Escobar $17M for a season. Hopefully his agent will reach a good extension agreement with the team, something under $10M a year I suppose. Seems like the $17M could be put to better use. I'm of two minds about Berrios. Lock up young talent, yeah. But I saw him rubbing his upper arm between innings a game or two ago - it reminds me that pitching goes bad in the blink of an eye. I don't know how to balance the risk. It depends a lot on what he would sign for.
  6. ashbury
    Wait, the rules allow that?
  7. ashbury
    Is "window" a term this front office has used with any consistency, or it this how fans view the process based on other front offices? A tiny bit of web-searching didn't turn up Falvey talking about windows. What I can recall Falvey talking about is “long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber” when he was hired. (Similar quote here.) That's not necessarily at odds with trading prospects, but it's not especially congruent-sounding, either. They traded a lottery-ticket* pitcher to get Jake Cave. Someone of higher caliber would cost more than that. Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for a backup OF, for example? More importantly, if you forget about windows and focus on long-term sustainability, would most GMs? I have a feeling that this tangent may swamp the original topic. * By that I mean a player who hasn't even made it past short-season/rookie ball yet. Obviously no prospects are sure things. But then again, neither are established players - running a franchise involves weighing the relative risks...
  8. ashbury
    As I said above, even though I disagree strongly with the coaching decision, it probably was a close call either way, and neither choice was odds-on to score a run in the end. Not awful. But, I can't help it: another aspect was it being a tie game with the home field advantage. If this had happened in the top of the 8th in a tie game, I think I'd feel differently: you can't be satisfied with a tie, you want that lead run if you can possibly grab it. As the home team, I play it just a little more conservatively. Geez, I hope I'm done dissecting this little play now.
  9. ashbury
    OK, I'll belabor it some more, by adding that perhaps neither choice was even 50-50 to wind up with a run scored. Send the runner, and he's likely out. Hold him up, and Wilson likely fails to bring the runner home with 1 out, and the next batter likewise makes the third out. So the point isn't to castigate Glynn for not tallying a run. Still, it's Glynn's job to discern the 30% chance (Wilson and then Dozier) from the 20% (a bobble), and I don't think he succeeded there. It looks to me like Glynn's hands were palms down, indicating hold up at third, and then suddenly he's windmilling like he saw the LFer drop the ball or something.
  10. ashbury
    And Grichuk was also an Angels pick, so really you could swap him and Trout for discussion purposes. So just Mitchell.
  11. ashbury
    I see that as 100% on Glynn with his momentary indecision turning into a belated windmill that had no chance of working. Even without the stumble, by that point it no longer required a perfect play by the defense, merely a competent one. The only situational indicator, in favor of sending, was who was on deck: Bobby Wilson. But the standard advice not to make the second out at home was probably the stronger indicator, namely to hold up as planned.
  12. ashbury
    Agreed. I'd add that he has improved to "adequate" on popups - it's still more likely for his shortstop to reach a foul pop than him, but at least he doesn't butcher the ones in fair territory. All in all, his strengths and weaknesses at the position add up to approximately adequate overall, which will be more than plenty if his bat meets expectations. I'd rather have Sano at third and Escobar at SS plus a real DH, than Sano at DH and Escobar at third with Adrianza at SS.
  13. ashbury
    No homers in May. b-r.com's game log gives links to the individual games. On May 2 he gave up a leadoff double, followed by a sac bunt and a single.On May 20, a leadoff walk, steal, wild pitch and sac fly. Gotta get that first guy. Mystery solved.
  14. ashbury
    If Mike Trout has offspring already, I would take a draft-and-follow strategy even if he is only 3 years old. As for the thread topic, I have literally no hopes one way or the other for whom the Twins draft; they are too far down in the pecking order for me to form an independent opinion. I know that the team will express surprise that whoever they pick would have dropped that far.
  15. ashbury
    I will. I haven't been seeing the "stuff" on his pitches these past few games like I thought was there earlier in the season. I looked up this pitch from April, and while it's a site that specializes only in highlights (built-in bias there), I don't remember seeing this kind of movement this week: https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/04/19/1951483483/1524158008909/asset_1800K.mp4 I would try hard to hold him out of several games and then see if his stuff rebounds from lighter usage. I imagine he's a gamer and won't pull himself out of availability willingly.
  16. ashbury
    This statement somehow makes me feel very, very old.
  17. ashbury
    Credit where credit due: the redoubtable Deduno Abides, last year. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/26872-article-twins-minor-league-report-723-slegers-continues-strong-streak/?p=657028
  18. ashbury
    Been savin' up that'un all season, hadn't ya?
  19. ashbury
    The feeling was mutual by the team and fans.
  20. ashbury
    Need one on the failing starting rotation.
  21. ashbury
    What they do in the minors doesn't necessarily relate to major league lineup decisions. If Granite will ever make an impact on the big club, it will be as a leadoff type. They're giving him the chance. If he doesn't reach the potential they see in him, it doesn't really matter how they develop a #9 hitter (or career AAAA player, or DFA candidate).
  22. ashbury
    http://twinsdaily.com/topic/29789-article-get-to-know-miracle-catcher-taylor-grzelakowski/ Seth's article from a few weeks ago.
  23. ashbury
    Probably it doesn't have to. My recollection of Catchers' ERA studies is that the supposed ability doesn't carry over very well from one season to the next, the way that batting average and home run power and pitchers' ERA do.
  24. ashbury
    Concur. I'm not ready to believe the hitting slump is over, quite yet.
  25. ashbury
    At the moment I'd choose Rosario. Hitting .300 with some pop is a nice All-Star portfolio in this era.
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