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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    And they REALLY won the Pierzynski trade.
  2. ashbury
    You're saying these gentlemen are of deficient character?
  3. ashbury
    CQO, then.
  4. ashbury
    Sure, Jeffers has started off well, with a BA of .636 in his first three games. But (wait for it) it's constructed on a BABIP of .700. I predict this gaudy average comes down. If he's still above .600 a month from now I'll be very surprised.
  5. ashbury
    I hate myself.
  6. ashbury
    Agreed. We signed him in order to compete. If we're in contention, we keep him.
  7. ashbury
    Yeah, that's what jumped out at me from the video moreso than any leg kicks or whatever - those glutes. Always thought he was a better chance for success than Florimon, back when that was the debate. And in very small sample size of personal observation, I came to the view that he's a smart situational hitter with sneaky-underrated power. And I still underestimated him.
  8. ashbury
    Burton. Pressley. Tompkin. I'll go with "who are three players who never suited up for the Minnesota Twins, Alex?" / sorry, just a spelling snark. I couldn't help myself - three in rapid succession in one post.
  9. ashbury
    Bottom Line: after Molitor's managing days are over, do not make him GM.
  10. ashbury
    Yeah, I don't know what the multiplier should be. As I stated, the 4X difference in maximums is obviously too high to use. While 1X is too low. "Twice as valuable" is getting closer, but is still probably too high. I think I've seen values around 1.6, which would be in the ballpark of my very simplistic example with Trout. There have been careful studies, probably the some of the ones mentioned in this thread, that give a useful answer - I don't have one at hand to recommend at the moment, and I'm just cautioning against being careless when comparing two very different kinds of number.
  11. ashbury
    Not to weigh in particularly on either side, but a confounding factor in discussing OBP versus SLG is that they aren't on the same scale. By definition, the maximum OBP is 1.000 while for SLG it's 4.000. While batters routinely reach a larger fraction of the maximum of OBP than for SLG, it's still the case that the league leader in OBP will be ahead of the league average by fewer points than the leader of SLG is. This year Mike Trout leads the majors in OBP with .152 more than MLB average, while for SLG it's Trout (again) by .282 more than the average. You can't just compare the two stats directly. It's a bit like comparing Celsius and Fahrenheit, except that those two scales are measuring the same actual thing. For me it means that .010 of additional OBP is more valuable than .010 more SLG. If someone's regression study doesn't attempt to correct for scale, then the conclusion will be that getting on base is more important than hitting for power. And I'm not sure that it's answering the actual question, done that way. This difference of scale has always been one of the prime criticisms of OPS. You're adding a pound of apples to a dozen oranges. As an aside, by sheer coincidence, yesterday I ran across a reference to a precursor to OPS, in which OBP plus SLG plus BA were added together. The guy called it ''combined triple average." I kind of like it. It over-weights batting average, but that means the criticism of OPS that it gives too much weight to walks is mitigated, likewise the outsize effect of a few extra wallops over the fence. If it overweights base hits, well, that's IMO the single most valuable skill in the sport, so it's not a major sin - but like OPS the combined triple average is better than BA alone. http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/living/articles/2005/06/23/his_numbers_are_in_the_ballpark/
  12. ashbury
    Not enough garlic. You needed to take them to Mayslack's. Nobody could beat those sandwiches.
  13. ashbury
    Some teams are just slow about promoting their prospects. The FSL is said to be a pitcher's league. I hope it doesn't suppress Sano's numbers too badly.
  14. ashbury
    Maybe. Stats say that batters do better against a starting pitcher the second time through the order, and better still the third time through. There's pressure now to start inserting relievers to avoid that third pass - a shorter game will only heighten the pressure to go once through the order and then bring in a new pitcher. If excess relievers are the problem, only a shorter roster seems like a solution, to me. For me, it's the excess time involved in bringing in the reliever - who's doing the pitching isn't itself the problem. New rules that insist on the reliever being warmed up and sitting in the team's dugout (a quick jog's distance from the mound), kind of like basketball or soccer players being in a defined location before substituting in, and getting just 1 warmup pitch, would be my preferred solution. I don't need to watch the pitcher hand the ball to the manager, who then waits and hands the ball to the next pitcher. Do it more like a wrestling tag-team - "Skip says you look tired, I'm in, you're out".
  15. ashbury
    All I am saying is, trade for R.J. Peace and give him a chance. http://www.beatleswiki.com/wiki/images/thumb/0/09/John-Lennon_1969.jpg/220px-John-Lennon_1969.jpg
  16. ashbury
    Maybe other teams also read what I keep coming back to in MLBTR when Hanley was released: "Dombrowski says Cora assuaged any worry that bumping Ramirez would harm chemistry in the clubhouse." It's hard to get a GM to be more direct than that. Or perhaps other teams have their own sources too.
  17. ashbury
    OK, so while I had those pages up, I looked some more, and something popped out at me. Leading off innings, the Twins' on-base percentage this season has been .292, instead of their overall .313. Across the majors, those numbers are .307 and .316 respectively. A bit of a drop. Leading off the game, Twins' OBP is even worse, .265, and for the majors it's .319 (you'd indeed expect it to be higher since the first inning is the only one the manager ordinarily exerts direct control over). It's not just Brian Dozier; his 50 times leading off the game have resulted in just 13 successes, but the 18 PA by other batters have led to 5 successes for only a .277 OBP. We're now down to small sample size, but that's a deficit of 4 first-inning rallies that were at best deferred until 2 outs remained. Obviously, that's not enough to account for anything actually meaningful over the course of a season - on average a couple of runs or so, going by long-term proability tables. But with this team, I think it's going to be little things like this that add up to the lack of situational offensive punch.
  18. ashbury
    The situational stats at b-r.com for this season don't directly answer your question, but Twins' batting average and slugging average with men on base are both better than with bases empty, and even better still when runners are in scoring position. This lines up pretty much with league averages, except that the Twins RISP numbers are even a little bit favorable. Twins: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2018 MLB: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2018
  19. ashbury
    And inability to throw your best stuff for strikes is many a pitcher's undoing.
  20. ashbury
    Not to get all off in the weeds over a small transaction, but is there a physical problem for Suniaga? He has far from the worst stats and isn't the youngest on the squad, either of which would be a marker for additional time in rookie-ball.
  21. ashbury
    Polanco's return appears to be delayed due to an off-field injury involving a car door.
  22. ashbury
    Try this one: What did the pirate say exactly one year after he turned 79? Aye matey.
  23. ashbury
    Fair enough, but my response was to something I took to be about mismanaged options.
  24. ashbury
    Yeah, I'm going to jinx him now by saying that, at last, I am a believer that his changes in tactics/mechanics are not just a fluke.
  25. ashbury
    Thrilling footage of a 179-plate-appearance streak being snapped: https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/06/16/2157983183/1529108067745/asset_1800K.mp4
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