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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Or guessing better, with experience. I think he mentioned looking for a fastball which he hit that grannie the other night. Of course, "looking" and "guessing" aren't quite the same thing, more of a continuum.
  2. ashbury
    It would probably be too small of a sample to slice and dice, but I wonder about this in relation to the count. I don't hold a bad swing at a low outside pitch totally against a batter when it's two strikes - sometimes there's no good choice - and in my "eye test" I might be discounting those. It's the "unforced error", where a batter swings lamely at a first-pitch slider in the dirt that I felt to be the Buxton trademark last year, and I think that's where he's now able to lay off. But that's why people keep the numbers on these things, to avoid the selective memory that I am relying on.
  3. ashbury
    He's laying off the pitches down-and-away. He's not swinging through pitches down the middle. Let's see LaVelle dispute that.
  4. ashbury
    In the postgame interview, the way Byron looked at Miguel when the latter was speaking, followed by Byron calling Miguel his brother, pretty much can not be faked. Just two of the guys, so I'm extrapolating, but looks like the chemistry you want after a big win - everyone happy for each other, not just for themselves.
  5. ashbury
    If you can please now turn your attention to the Red Wings' W-L record ....
  6. ashbury
    Larry King? More like Cherry... uh, Bing Cherry. / I'll keep working on it
  7. ashbury
  8. ashbury
    Marwin finished 19th that year, Schoop was #12, and Nelson Cruz was 10th. We're working on collecting the whole set! Hope Mookie Betts (#6) and Francisco Lindor (#5) show up on the trade market soon. (Craig Kimbrel was #6 for Cy Young, hint hint.)
  9. ashbury
    He's not going to stay in the 9th spot forever, if he continues to produce like this. I'm not getting too worked up over exactly when the manager moves him, if it's before the All-Star break.
  10. ashbury
    Not unless he makes the last out of every game (or, more accurately, the last out occurs during his PA but before the next guy's PA is complete). I look at it this way. Suppose you had a lineup of equally talented hitters. The odds would be 1/9 in any given game that any particular hitter makes the final out. So, one out of 9 games, #1 gets an additional PA relative to #2, and so on down the line. 162 / 9 = 18. Moving someone up from #2 to #1 would get him 18 more PA. Moving up from #3 to #1 would be 2*18=36. Moving all the way up from #9 to #1 would be 8*18=144. I think that's the '8' you were looking for. Of course talent is not equal, and is purposely not distributed randomly through the lineup. But as a first-order approximation I'd go with that. "Your leadoff man gets 18 more PA in a season than the 2 hole." And on down the line.
  11. ashbury
    She is obviously not up on all the nuances and intricacies of Sportsball.
  12. ashbury
    Tangentially, I just can't recommend strongly enough (yet again) the game Out Of The Park (OOTP). It pretty faithfully reflects all these roster rules, requiring the player to think, I'm sure at a simplified level, like a GM. It can be played a lot of different ways, but if you take on the challenge of building up a franchise, rather than play just one season, you have to look ahead multiple seasons so as to not be faced with a lot of roster clutter lacking either trade value or non-redundant worth to your team. It's my kryptonite.
  13. ashbury
    And they'd be capped at around $16M in ticket revenue instead of what I believe to be around $44M. That would make a noticeable dent in the payroll budget, among other things.
  14. ashbury
    Your wont. * I'm being that guy again - you're welcome.
  15. ashbury
    Mrs Cranfill in fourth grade was pretty adamant that zero divided by zero was undefined - it could be anything therefore you couldn't choose any particular one as the answer. I found the uncertainty deeply unsatisfying. When I got to high school I found out that she had it right. Vasquez hit a batter and issued two walks. No hits, no AB, so his SLG isn't infinity. It's just undefined.
  16. ashbury
    WHIP involves hits and walks, so it corresponds to the OBP part of OPS. What it doesn't include is power hitting, so it tells only part of the story. But the OBP part is pretty important - "is he recording outs?" - so WHIP is good. Of course any stats are going to be affected by the manager's usage, e.g. whether the pitcher is trusted to face the heart of the opponent's order. I'd never recommend relying on just one stat. But ERA for a reliever ranks pretty low for me on what to look at.
  17. ashbury
    For batters, OPS has supplanted Batting Average as a quick-and-dirty way of seeing how someone's season is going. For relief pitchers, I'm surprised it hasn't also supplanted ERA, since the way earned runs are counted is so eccentric when partial innings are a large part of the landscape. But you're right about Morin and Harper, who have OPS-against of .357 and .482 respectively (none of these stats include this afternoon's game). It's still small-sample terrain, especially for Morin, but so far, they have succeeded beyond expectations. Magill's OPS-against is a less-impressive .707 and Duffey's is .720. Better than league-average, but their ERAs probably overstate their effectiveness. Hildenberger's OPS is .895, which would be a fine result for any slugger outside of a very select few. Mejia's is at .837, definitely below par. De Jong's is a silly 1.667, and Vazquez's can't even be calculated since he didn't record any outs. So their OPS conform to our intuitions about what they've accomplished. Blake Parker is quietly distinguishing himself, with a .510 OPS. More surprisingly, at least to me, is Trevor May with .529 - the hits he gives up are just so ill-timed, and usually that evens out during a season. To me, quick-and-dirty OPS tells you more about how the pitcher is succeeding in getting batters out, without the need to delve into inherited runners being dealt with by the next reliever that ERA calls into question.
  18. ashbury
    Agreed, and I guess I was trying to further spoil his mood by indicating that a trip to just the 10-day wasn't an indication of good news.
  19. ashbury
    The 60-day IL doesn't necessarily get used when an injury is serious. Only if the team needs the use of that 40-man roster spot. When the 60 days are up, they then could have a roster decision to make, as to whom to DFA or whatever, in order to re-activate Garver, so I don't know if they make the move lightly, right now. Only if they want someone on the 25-man roster who isn't currently on the 40-man; that could well be a pitcher, but they also may prefer to leave room for Telis or other AAA catcher in case of a 10-day injury to someone, but not commit to that as yet.
  20. ashbury
    You might hold some kind of site record for longest time between posts. Don't be a stranger.
  21. ashbury
    Thanks for being that guy, so I didn't have to. I bite my tongue pretty much every time I see it.
  22. ashbury
    Yes. This is key. (The other points you raised are also valid.) In the early part of the game, you don't really have much idea how many runs you need. So don't do things that reduce the average number of runs. Late in the game when it's close, you have a better idea of the value of one solitary run. Then you do things that increase the chance of scoring anything at all. Unless I missed something, the tables in the linked article were for average numbers of runs. "We’ll touch on run expectancy and bunting today, and cover probability another day." Someone needs to go find that other article.
  23. ashbury
    Is there a corresponding move, or will they keep three catchers at AA?
  24. ashbury
    Releasing him, letting him sign as a minor-league free-agent with whomever he pleased, would also have accomplished this. Do the Dodgers still need cash?
  25. ashbury
    Presumably trapezius, a muscle in the upper back.
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