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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I'll ask my SABR researcher friends to try and name names as to why this particular rule was instituted.
  2. ashbury
    I see on Ronald Acuña Jr.'s Wikipedia page that his son was born in 2020. Are there any early scouting reports on this prospect?
  3. ashbury
    Both I suppose, but I'd probably explain it with percentages. In the seasons they were winning they'd win more when he was a starter. In their losing seasons, they lost less frequently. It's a bit laborious to dig up the numbers in his b-r.com game logs, because partial games carry a bias. And the last I looked might have been a couple years ago so I won't vouch for 2022. Right now 2023 is only closely in his favor, I think.
  4. ashbury
    This year? Now 28-24 in games he started. (Among those are 4 he didn't finish the game but the Twins won all 4.) In years past when he was in CF the W-L record was almost invariably better.
  5. ashbury
    "This guy's just a little bit better than you are used to, sir."
  6. ashbury
    I really hope there is more nuance to the plan than just that. Simple math: in an era of 13-man pitching staffs, a 6-man rotation leaves 7 relievers instead of the current 8. That makes it more important, not less, for most of the starts to be of the longer variety. A sequence of four-inning starts such as Sonny Gray gave us the other day will wear down a 7-man bullpen fast. And the guys who we think of as mop-up pitchers will be thrust into even more frequent high-leverage duty. And who is the one being added to such a rotation? A guy coming off the injured list, likely to be on a pitch limit, with a ceiling of 5 innings or so, at least for a while? Shuttling arms up and down from AAA is not a sustainable solution, due to roster rules that require minimum stays in AAA. Very little margin for error, with such a plan. So I hope there is another rabbit they can pull out of the hat. Or else that the plan is only a couple of times through the rotation in the expectation that something will sort itself out.
  7. ashbury
  8. ashbury
    You can be President of the Ryan Jeffers fan club and I'll be Secretary-Treasurer. Everybody hop on the bandwagon, send your Venmo payment in care of ashbury.definitely.not.a.scam@gmail.scam and we'll mail your secret decoder ring right away.
  9. ashbury
    Don't know whether you already looked it up, but if I added correctly the Twins are 19-24 when Vazquez starts behind the plate, and now 17-11 when Jeffers is the starting catcher (1-1 when Jeffers DHs). Small Sample Size territory still, but perhaps an unexpected trend at season's start.
  10. ashbury
    Didn't watch the game live and am only seeing the play on the video clip, but that is one fine catch and tag by Jeffers. He had to keep his eye on a one-hop throw and immediately apply the tag. He did it all in one motion that had multiple ways for it to go wrong. Probably really good technique (what do I know), definitely excellent execution IMO.
  11. ashbury
    Oh? I hadn't heard.
  12. ashbury
    Hadn't paid much attention yet to the Dominican Summer League this season, since it's just underway, but in the early going, the batters throughout the league are way ahead of the pitchers. Average run scoring is 6.19 right now. So while the Twins ERA in the 8s is pretty bad, there are 4 other teams doing even worse! Anyone like me who likes to play around with scouting players from their stats had better be aware of just how much of a hitter's league this is. (I also read almost nothing into a player's stats until he's age 20 or so, and a 20-year old in DSL is automatically a bit suspect, thus the DSL is more or less "oh, look at the ugly/pretty numbers.") Hope a few gems emerge from this mass of young talent.
  13. ashbury
    Great. Now what's a Domestic Reserve List? / never mind - looked it up, 180 players per franchise to cover their entire minor league system. There's also a 70-player International Reserve List. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33291388/mlb-seeks-ability-reduce-size-domestic-reserve-list-latest-labor-offer-players-union-sources-say
  14. ashbury
    Slumping Tigers? They've won 2 games in a row. One more and it's a winning streak. It has happened before. You're welcome, Detroit.
  15. ashbury
    Runners? After the second inning, they got 4 more hits and one walk, in 26 PA, give or take (just doing simple math from the box score). That's a .160 batting average. Yes, they didn't literally get no-hit the rest of the way, runners were produced, plural. But the bats went to sleep, just as they so often do. Putrid game. Glad I missed it. I was at a memorial service for an acquaintance, and had arguably a better time. / edit - oops, didn't take into account double plays. 4-for-24, .167 BA. Much better.
  16. ashbury
    Send him to AA Wichita and then bench him once he's there. Nah, he's fine where he is. At least until Nick Gordon is ready to play again.
  17. ashbury
    After tonight's game, I fall back on my two philosophies of life: So far, so bad Live and don't learn Hope AK does better next time he faces a lefthander. Wonder how long it will be until then.
  18. ashbury
    Rocco, or Pete Maki? Of course Rocco makes the decision, but if Maki's input is always different regarding Gray than for the other starters ....
  19. ashbury
    Gray had more self-criticism than critique for the decision to take him out. I might be unaware of some nuance in his words, either to the manager's ears or to the rest of the clubhouse, but to me Sonny Gray showed class in his interview (soliloquy, more like).
  20. ashbury
    "Tick tock, my friend."
  21. ashbury
    The odds do go up.
  22. ashbury
    He was supported by more than 3 runs only once, and he was done in by bullpen hilarity at least a couple of times. He did no worse than keep his team in the game, each outing, and four times was pitcher of record had there been a win instead of a blown save. Of course one tried and true way to reduce the bullpen's role in your own fate is to pitch deeper into the game. Come on, Sonny, we're pulling for you!
  23. ashbury
    There are 3 corollaries for handedness and which side of the ball you are on, that I would also print up in quantity.
  24. ashbury
    "Oh, the pressure! Under the microscope every time I face a lefty!" Have I mentioned I don't care too much about pressure now and then, given how pro sports work? And I always fall back on the bottom-line: "I don't want right handed batters. I want batters who can hit lefties." Yes, let's find out. I think the results will be good with AK.
  25. ashbury
    Puckett was among the three with highest regret. Again, I used Wins Above Average since we're honing in on "greatest" kinds of discussions rather than simply contributions over and above some AAA scrub. And I used career as a Twin, rather than one single peak season, just because. The costs you assigned were often at variance with WAA - so be it, another poster may pick a different metric than I chose, including of course no numerical metric at all. Mauer actually had the highest regret (22 wins), Puckett and Carew were tied (18 wins), and Killebrew was also strong (12 wins). WAA isn't very kind to Hunter, so the gap between him and Kirby is larger than some might expect. Among the starting pitching, the top 3 were very close to each other and there was a steep dropoff to #4, making Santana the "value play" as others phrased it. And so on - the other positions just were not high enough WAAs to make much difference by comparison.
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