ashbury

Is there a definitive list/roster of who is still in camp and vying for an Opening Day spot? It can't be very many higher than 26 by this point, can it?

100? Pff. Make it 200.

This year's edition is shaping up as the team that finds a different way to lose each game. Chandler Simpson not only hit 0 homers for the Rays last season, but has hit only 1 of them in 1197 minor league Plate Appearances; try and find that way of losing on your bingo card. 26 players on the regular season roster; 25 spots on a standard bingo card. I'm thinking only Buxton or Ryan might be exempt - Austin Martin by way of contrast strikes me as the Free space in the center of the card, as he's bound to find some wacky way of confounding expectations at some critical point in a game.

Mental gymnastics? Strikes me as General Manager 101. And I'll repeat, the stakes on this decision are low. Am I concerned? No. Do I like to play Armchair GM? Sometimes yes.

I think it's more complicated, even though the stakes are ultra low. If the FO sees the choice between the two players as being close, then a consideration is which move has the best chance of keeping both, one of whom would be at AAA. If you DFA Kreidler, then what are the odds someone claims him? If you keep the status quo, what are the odds that Arcia opts out?

Not corner outfielders. We have 'em all.

The Twins lack an honest to goodness fight song. This article points up the need.

Has he tried throwing with his right hand? I'm no pitching coach, but most people do better throwing from that side.

These guys have the over. I'm taking the under. Sorry I can't be constructive anymore. This team's a mess.

How I read this headline.

Here's a clip from an interview in which Johnson talks about repetition and mechanics, essentially interchangeably. A "mechanical advantage" isn't "mechanics." Just listen to what a HoF'er has to say, and don't quibble; when he says repetition, he means repeating the mechanics. www.youtube.com/shorts/T9zvE-IUoQw

Martin being on the same team is worth looking at. With all that on-base skill, plus some base-stealing, Martin in 2025 scored runs at almost exactly the clip that Wallner did. 121 per thousand PA versus 120. That is, well, bad. And Wallner, for all his warts, produced more RBI per PA. The low-power table setter leads to disappointing run production.

In a world where walks didn't happen, that math might check out. But because walks are an important part of his game, Wallner made outs 7 out of 10 times in 2025, and for his career he's been closer to 6.5. You know what else are biased heavily toward power hitters? Runs and (especially) RBIs. None of the top ten RBI producers in the majors in 2025 had fewer than 30 HR. Among the top ten Run scorers only Tatis had as few as 25 HR. Personally I appreciate a stat that correlates well with run scoring. And, as I keep repeating, I hate that Wallner's power was so out of keeping and resulted in such little run production.. Are you really going to drag Arraez into a thread where he doesn't belong? Try comparing Arraez to other guys on his own team. He finished behind both Tatis and Machado in Runs Scored, who batted 1st and 3rd respectively sandwiching Arraez. Weird that they both somehow set the table better than Luis. If you prorated Wallner's run scoring to the same number of plate appearances as Arraez had, you'd be looking at 81 runs compared to 66. Maybe Wallner should be viewed as filling a table setter role - and doing it a bit better than Luis (but less well than Luis's two teammates). 😁 This is no defense of Wallner, but to illustrate how utterly average Arraez is at scoring runs. Instead of sorting players into arbitrary buckets - roles that can change their meaning after the first time through the batting order - I would rather gauge how close a player is to being a complete hitter. Arraez and Wallner are at opposite ends of a very checkered spectrum while Tatis and Machado can do more things than either of them to beat the opponent. This on the other hand is supported by the record - Clemens was practically the Anti-Wallner. Using the same splits as I referenced for Wallner in my earlier post, Kody was seemingly uninterested when the lead for either team was 5 or more - compiling a bizarre .496 OPS in those particular 74 plate appearances - meaning that his numbers when it mattered were even better than the full season totals would suggest. He was like that the year before with Philly too, although in much smaller sample size. When games were within 4 runs, Clemens and Wallner got on base at a nearly identical clip (.297 and .295), but it was Clemens who had by far the better slugging percentage (.471 to .413). It's really hard to defend Wallner's season.

I feel like a broken record in mentioning this, but when a writer I respect overlooks the problem, I feel like I need to say it. There is more than one way to break down situational hitting. b-r.com provides a convenient split that goes by how large the lead is in the game. Wallner builds up his above-average OPS in situations where the lead (ahead or behind) was already 5 runs or greater - a massive 1.113 OPS in 2025. In all the other situations, 4 runs or closer, his OPS last year was a very pedestrian .708. If it were a one-year thing, I'd feel differently, but the same pattern existed in 2024 and 2023. (2022 had only 65 PA total, but the pattern was very slightly in that same direction then too.) Now, you might expect that every batter pads the stats during blowouts, when inferior pitchers might be on the mound, but the same breakdown across the majors in 2025 was only .746/.714 for OPS when the lead was 5+ versus closer games. (Oddly, the Twins as a team actually have bucked this trend slightly the past two seasons.) I think the disconnect comes from whether a fan looks at his total stats, or goes with the "eye test" of too seldomly seeing Wallner come through when the game is still actually on the line. I don't in the least bit question Wallner's mental fortitude, but there is something very screwy going on that the player and his coaches need to figure out pronto. I'm not going to let complaints about "Wallner bashing" stop me from presenting facts. He's just not been as valuable at the plate as his totals suggest. If it's just "statistical noise" it is long past time that it cancelled itself out.

The Twins finished tied for 8th best in ERA in 2019.

Concur. The analogous French Revolution Daily headline would be "Marie Antoinette Amputated at Neck." It just doesn't feel right when you read it.

My sons are half your age - not especially Boston fans either - and I would be disappointed in them if they didn't react the same way.

Really good statistical nugget to remember. It caught me by surprise. For a moment I thought the assertion about "hitters" could be reconciled against "PA" - in the sense that LH PA might be more valued by manangers and maybe a statistical bias arises so that both statements could be true. I used b-r's Stathead tool to count the number of major league batters with at least 1 PA in 2025. There were 368 right-handers, 235 left-handers, and 70 switch-hitters, for a total of 673 (confirmed by Stathead if I remove the handedness qualifier, so at least these numbers add up). How to count the 70 L/R guys? Count them twice and you have 438/773 and 305/773, and we're back to 56% righties. Leave the switch hitters out entirely and it's 368/603 and 235/603 and it's 61% righties. I can't see a way to come up with 75% hitters batting right-handed. I suppose "hitters in today's game" could include the AAAA types who can't quite make the grade, or even the guys in the lower minors, and perhaps across the pro game the count of players could come out that way. Could. Or maybe the count comes from including pitchers (Chafin for instance is listed as batting right) as players, in a raw count of bodies. Maybe. But PA are the better way to understand how the game operates anyway. Well played, Chief.

Have no fear - Ding Dong Kreidler to the rescue!

Not only that, but the pitch count would support him going deeper into the ballgame. Later in spring when the limits go higher, if this holds up if could be significant. (And might keep Topa out of the game.)

The arm falling off doesn't explain the visibly bad footwork and awkward reaches Kirilloff displayed shortly before having to retire.

He was batting .000 in 7 plate appearances before injuring the hamstring. It would take some kind of miracle now for him to make the 26-man roster for Opening Day, and unless there are no worthy RoY candidates they won't award it for a partial season by Jenkins. Barring a Hurricane Hazle* kind of debut, I don't see the award going to him. ERod has a better chance of going north in April and if he starts out hot to garner attention and completes a good campaign, he could be the Twins' hope. *Jack Sanford won RoY in 1957 anyway

This preface would be more relevant if he actually hit better when DHing, but in 2024 his OPS as a DH was .674 while as a LF it was .896(!). The trend was similar in 2025, .702 vs .760. Not that I believe very much in slicing and dicing numbers this way - divide data in a million ways on a computer and you'll eventually turn up something that is probably stupid such as a propensity to hit better on Tuesdays. But if a correlation is offered, there ought to be at least some evidence provided. It's really wearying to feel the need to fact-check everything in certain writers' bodies of work.

Yes, and just to be clear, I am not laughing at the player, but at the projection.

We still have one of those. How about him being the new Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart?