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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
  2. ashbury
  3. ashbury
    Winner, winner, enjoy a delicious chicken dinner!
  4. ashbury
    Twins fans are easily turned on if there's something to root for. I refer to the 2023 wild card round against the Blue Jays as evidence.
  5. ashbury
    It's true. Kreidler's BABIP in July has been comically/tragically low so far. He's getting back to normal now. Regression works in both directions.
  6. ashbury
    Join SABR They've had national conventions in each of these places in the past couple of decades. Heading back to Cleveland this coming week.
  7. ashbury
    This game is starting to look like how we expected the entire series to go.
  8. ashbury
    I need to mark my calendar.
  9. ashbury
    I hope we win. Again.
  10. ashbury
    The overpay may depend on how the two teams view injury risk. An inflamed elbow is nothing to take lightly.
  11. ashbury
    I'm actually a little bit high on the guy at the moment. The Red Sox drafted him via Rule 5 so (scouting by proxy, LOL) he must have some potential. The Sawx kept trying to make him be a starter at Worcester this year, and judging by a quick scan of his box scores it seems that his downfall would be in his third inning of work and forward. Converting to bullpen isn't an instant project, so if the Twins view him as with potential in shorter, more frequent stints, I am on board with letting them try to complete the process at AAA, mixed with callups to the big club now and then since he's on the 40-man and is one of their arms to use. The guy's on only his first minor-league option and still has rookie status, at age 26, so there's a chance that this will be an astute waiver wire pickup. And the risk, if he fizzles, remains affordable.
  12. ashbury
    I don't trust Alex Jackson any farther than I can throw him, to maintain the hitting pace he's established so far. But if a really strong offer for Jeffers comes in, IMO the FO has to take it - losing Jeffers compromises the rest of the season (if it's still thought a playoff berth is attainable) less than at any other position on the field than corner outfield. If that strong offer doesn't materialize, and the coming few games leave the Twins in position to make a post-season push, I'm also okay with reaping the value of Jeffers's final two months of team control. "Losing a free agent for NOTHING" doesn't hold water for me by itself - there is value also in what the player brings to the team while he's with us. If that's fence-straddling, so be it. The coming few days will hold much meaning.
  13. ashbury
    31 AB (36 PA actually) isn't a small enough sample? You say you want to split this down even finer? Am I hearing correctly? 😄 Okay. With runners in scoring position, Roden has had 10 opportunities. He has 5 base hits and 1 sac fly, for a very nice .556 batting average and all of his 7 RBIs. For those who pay attention to BABIP, that is also .556. In 19 PA with nobody on base, his batting average is .125 and his BABIP is barely higher at .143. And with a man on first only, he's batting exactly .000 in his 7 tries, for a BABIP of, well, .000. Do you think things might normalize a little bit as the rest of the season unfolds? Small samples lead to these types of freak-show splits.
  14. ashbury
    It makes for an interesting thought experiment. Would you trade Berrios's remaining team control for two years of Sonny Gray (as they were scouted at the time, or as their respective seasons played out)? Would you trade Chase Petty for SWR and Austin Martin (as they were scouted at the time, or as their respective seasons played out)? This prompted me to check in again on Petty. I wasn't aware that he has resurfaced in the majors, after a rough introduction. His last 10 games, all in relief during garbage time in blowouts, show a 2.76 ERA across 16.1 innings. FIP is a little less kind at 3.63. He's 23 and getting his feet wet in the majors. Much as I cherish the personal memories of the 2023 post-season series against Toronto, I'm not quite ready to close the books on the Sonny Gray trade, Anyway, both my imaginary trades are a lot harder for me to decide on than I expected. With perfect hindsight, I see the "trade" of the two major leaguers as approximately a wash, and of the prospects I'd certainly like to still have Petty instead of the two washouts. But trades actually have to be made without hindsight, and I bought into SWR's promise.
  15. ashbury
    "Molybdenum is atomic number 42. You Shouldn’t Want to Trade Ryan Jeffers." My headline is the same chain of logic as the one for this article. A true statement followed by an unrelated opinion.
  16. ashbury
    I did manage to field the wicked one-hopper you sent my way. Thanks for the chuckle. PS, you are best advised to go with the limited-knowledge option.
  17. ashbury
    This is part of the difficulty for the Twins brain-trust. Is this a garden-variety uptick or have they begun to gel? Fools Gold or precious metal? Signal, or Noise? A one-game winning streak doesn't tell a lot. They might not get useful insight from their field manager; Derek Shelton never had one of his Pirates teams win more than 76 in a season so he doesn't know from the inside what it looks like to gel. (Okay, I'm being a little harsh and much too personal - Shelton has a ton of baseball experience to draw on. But the difficult judgment is real.)
  18. ashbury
    Who can't. I exaggerated for effect. 😄
  19. ashbury
    And good day to you too, Sir.
  20. ashbury
    It's also a good day to win if rival teams are winning.
  21. ashbury
    And, maybe, doesn't field as well as either one, anymore? 😄
  22. ashbury
    As I implied, high-end talent is generally unavailable via trade once it reaches AAA and doesn't fizzle, so you have to be willing to grab it if offered at AA or lower. (Cf. Eduardo Tait, gamble though he may be). If someone won't take these prospects, they should just follow through their train of thought and admit they aren't willing to trade for top, affordable, controllable talent. As for whether this bit of intel is "real", I kind of look at trade rumors as like electrons. The picture they always showed at the dawn of the Atomic Age was this: While today I believe it's more like this: . There's probably a Schoedinger's Cat analogy out there too, that every "cloud" of trade rumors remains in multiple parallel states until the respective front offices "open the box" and the cloud collapses down to one specific outcome. @Craig Arkomay wish to refine my tongue in cheek analogy, since my Physics training is ancient and rusty.
  23. ashbury
    Now? Rob Manfred says no. After the World Series. I'm guessing the White Sox say no, since now Ryan is down to one year of control. / edit - ninja'd due to not scrolling all the way down first.
  24. ashbury
    Tick tock, my friend.
  25. ashbury
    That's all well and good, and probably better reflects thinking at the trade deadline a year ago. My real point is that we're looking backward at things from a 20-20 perspective now, and what seems like a slam dunk now may have looked different to different eyes back then. I can imagine all the screaming if Ryan had been let go for two prospects who weren't even at AAA. We know that prospects can fail; knowing what we know now changes everything because a large part of the uncertainty a year ago is now resolved in favor of both these prospects, which is not necessarily the odds-on outcome. (SWR and Austin Martin, anyone?) And despite seeing this report in print now, there were varying and conflicting reports back then on what might have been offered, and IMO everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It's all might-have-been. Do I wish the Twins FO had pulled the trigger on what's being discussed? Yes, now, of course. Then? Probably, because I am a prospect-clutcher. But it's largely moot because I don't recall this particular offer being discussed back then.
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