ashbury

Welp, a run scored, on no hits and no walks... I suppose a bunch of cheap unearned runs is how Pelfrey has squeaked out a decent July-August ERA... checking... nope, eh?

I'd like to check out her Autumnal Equinox, iykwimaityd, eh?

Nice maple leafs on that one in the middle.

The back of his bubblegum card next spring will be what it will be; all the stats count, including April and May. Ditto for the career line. If we're handing out Cy Young 2013 or Hall Of Fame votes he's going to come up empty. But we're trying to forecast the coming couple of years. To me, a player achieving MLB-average or better performance are determined by his talent experience health luck and normal fluctuation I could include something about my view of the interplay among these but it'd be only marginally pertinent here. This is Pelfrey's MLB history before the Twins: age 22 ERA+ 81; 23/78; 24/113; 25/81; 26/107; 27/78; 28/out The way I read it, age 22-23 he didn't yet have the experience. Age 24 he demonstrated over a full season that he has the talent. Age 25 I will go out on a limb and infer some kind of health issue. Age 26 he again demonstrated MLB level talent. Age 27 I will go out on less of a limb to assume a health issue, because we know that age 28 culminated in Tommy John Surgery. Now at age 29 he has put up a half-season that was putrid, and then a third of a season (11 starts, not just "a month") that so far has him once again above major-league average in ERA. So what do we forecast for his age 30-31 seasons? To me, the signs are that he earlier had MLB level talent; doing it twice over full seasons at ages 24 and 26 is IMO no fluke. He has enough experience. Luck is always an unknown. So the question to me boils down to health - a) have past health issues degraded his talent, and will his future health be a good risk? I'm of the opinion that his July/August 2013 is a long enough stretch to confirm his talent remains high enough. What I don't know is his health prognosis: what's the experience with TJ patients at this future stage of recovery? was his age 25 blip also the elbow? or does he also have forearm, shoulder, leg, or other weak points that could flare up again? Bottom line, for forecasting purposes I think Pelfrey is a much tougher nut to crack than just looking at aggregate career or 2013 totals, and a careful look suggests where to look further.

Put up some token resistance on the eastern flank, and let them shoot straight down to Mexico if they want the warmer weather. Best case, maybe they pillage Texas as they pass through - heck, they can take it along for a souvenir for all I care.

Yeah, I can't believe a guy his age (playing other than first base or catcher) routinely getting pinch-run for. On at least one occasion I recall by a guy we nicknamed Gramps.

The salary and skillset say to me that he might be more valuable to another team than to the Twins. If two or more teams would be a fit, thus a small bit of competition for his services, maybe he could draw enough in trade to have it make sense for both teams. As we like to say, include Duensing if need be to sweeten the deal for someone with higher ceiling but less certainty to make it to the majors.

I thought that, by carefully trimming to the "beating that drum" part, I made clear what I was referring to. You made your point in the first post, before the parenthetical comment, and it was OK; but don't be tedious about it going forward.

I thought that's what I was doing. You want ugly, here's ugly.

Signing a washed-up placekicker doesn't seem like a good idea even in football, much less MLB.

There's a chance I'll be there sometime in March, so this project is definitely of interest.

I didn't read behind the paywall so I'm only going by what I see in this thread. With a '5' for MLB talent level and a '30' for prospect talent level, I don't get the need for the other category being movable assets, since the assets themselves have already been rated. If Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were available for trade, that alone would seem like enough to move the Mobility needle above '13', if that's what Mobility is measuring. But clearly these players aren't, so how does a MLB talent level of '5' become a '13' for Mobility if it's the assets that are being rated for the latter? "We have terrible quality, but it's available in large quantity"?

In threads like this one about a potential trade target? Double check the comments policy about that, my brother.

The list ESPN constructed was to look at the coming 5 years' competitiveness. I'm not entirely clear on what they really mean by the mobility metric, but to tie it closely to the current talent level seems redundant because they already have a category for that. The interesting question to me is, suppose you want to make a move (promote a stud prospect, sign a good free agent) in year 3 or year 5 say, are you hamstrung by other contracts? But, that's partly why I'm not clear on what they mean, because the Twins have a lot of flexibility, yet their mobility rating is on the low side. Mauer's the only constraint beyond year 2.

Now you're switching from commenting on trade-deadline deals in losing seasons, to overall strategy. Not every thread has to become a referendum on Terry Ryan, and this thread is far and away long enough, so I'm not taking the offer.

I didn't get a clear idea of which, if any, parts of the project will be completed this winter in time for spring training 2014, and which won't happen until a year after that.

I think the problem with the Pelfrey signing is that the Twins paid him a decent major league salary while absorbing the risk of his comeback season. If he performed above expectations in what was anticipated to be another lost season then he would likely sign with someone else in 2014 when maybe the young hitters would start to populate the roster, while if he had a season like actually occurred (or worse) the Twins didn't really get their money's worth. Lose-lose rather than win-win.

Oh well, can't winnem all.

Last night I was on the phone talkin' Twins with my son. The name Mastroianni came up. My wife was listening in, and said "oh, is he that master-bater guy?" My son of course cracked up. She remembered my Bruno anecdote from Spring Training.

Have to imagine somewhere in Minnesota, people are photoshopping pictures of Ryan Pressley and cropping Alex Presley on them.

Yeah, them and 12 other teams if I counted right. ZOMG, a late second-round draft pick turned out to be good!!!11!

Mini Cooper - chick car Mini iPad - chick computer Mini pad - chick product of some sort I say go for it.

:s-instagib::shoot: / edit - wait, I see big dog already said this