The back of his bubblegum card next spring will be what it will be; all the stats count, including April and May. Ditto for the career line. If we're handing out Cy Young 2013 or Hall Of Fame votes he's going to come up empty. But we're trying to forecast the coming couple of years. To me, a player achieving MLB-average or better performance are determined by his talent experience health luck and normal fluctuation I could include something about my view of the interplay among these but it'd be only marginally pertinent here. This is Pelfrey's MLB history before the Twins: age 22 ERA+ 81; 23/78; 24/113; 25/81; 26/107; 27/78; 28/out The way I read it, age 22-23 he didn't yet have the experience. Age 24 he demonstrated over a full season that he has the talent. Age 25 I will go out on a limb and infer some kind of health issue. Age 26 he again demonstrated MLB level talent. Age 27 I will go out on less of a limb to assume a health issue, because we know that age 28 culminated in Tommy John Surgery. Now at age 29 he has put up a half-season that was putrid, and then a third of a season (11 starts, not just "a month") that so far has him once again above major-league average in ERA. So what do we forecast for his age 30-31 seasons? To me, the signs are that he earlier had MLB level talent; doing it twice over full seasons at ages 24 and 26 is IMO no fluke. He has enough experience. Luck is always an unknown. So the question to me boils down to health - a) have past health issues degraded his talent, and will his future health be a good risk? I'm of the opinion that his July/August 2013 is a long enough stretch to confirm his talent remains high enough. What I don't know is his health prognosis: what's the experience with TJ patients at this future stage of recovery? was his age 25 blip also the elbow? or does he also have forearm, shoulder, leg, or other weak points that could flare up again? Bottom line, for forecasting purposes I think Pelfrey is a much tougher nut to crack than just looking at aggregate career or 2013 totals, and a careful look suggests where to look further.