Matthew Taylor

After an explosive offensive performance on Wednesday afternoon against Colorado, the Minnesota Twins kept the good vibes rolling against the Oakland Athletics, winning 6-2 and taking the first of a four-game series. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Joe Ryan 7.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (78 pitches, 54 strikes) Home Runs: Carlos Correa (6) Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.253), Joe Ryan (.191), Byron Buxton (.174) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) After trading scoreless innings in the first, the scoring began for each team in the second inning. Beginning with the Oakland Athletics who followed up a Miguel Andujar walk with a Tyler Soderstrom two-run shot to dead center to take an early 2-0 lead on the Twins. Minnesota quickly struck back in the bottom of the second inning with two runs of their own thanks to a Byron Buxton two-run single up the middle that plated Carlos Correa and Max Kepler. The single for Buxton marked his fifth hit in the past six games, a much needed string of solid performances from the talented center fielder who had been having a tough start to the season. The Twins were able to quickly push out to a 4-2 lead thanks to a two-out RBI single from Carlos Correa in the third inning, followed by a run-scoring ground out from freshly promoted Austin Martin in the fourth. The game stood in the balance until the bottom of the seventh when the red hot Carlos Correa took reliever Sean Newcomb deep for a two run blast to left field for his 6th home run of the season. The homer notched a hit day for Correa, making it eight hits for the shortstop in the past two days. More importantly, the home run birthed a new home run celebration for the Minnesota Twins, courtesy of Pablo López, and it’s amazing. Aside from allowing the home run from Soderstrom in the second inning, Joe Ryan was lights out on the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight, tossing seven innings and only allowing three total hits on the night. The performance lowered Ryan’s ERA to 3.24 on the season, strengthening his case to become an All-Star for the first time in his career this season. The seven inning outing for Ryan was especially huge given the fact that the Twins are in the midst of playing 13 games in 13 days and the bullpen was in need of rest. The little that was required of the bullpen was smooth sailing tonight as Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala both finished off the game unscathed with back-to-back shutout innings to clinch a 6-2 win for the Minnesota Twins, who lower the deficit in the division to 7.5 games with Cleveland having an off-day today. Notes Earlier today, the Twins formally announced that they optioned Alex Kirilloff to Triple-A and recalled Austin Martin. In his first game back with the Twins, Martin went 2-for-4 with an RBI. What’s Next The Minnesota Twins will face the Oakland Athletics again tomorrow night at Target Field in what will be the on-field debut of their City Connect jerseys. Simeon Woods Richardson will take the mound for the Twins and face off against right handed pitcher Mitch Spence of the A’s. Bullpen Usage Chart View full article

The Minnesota Twins have made a difficult but necessary decision by demoting Alex Kirilloff. According to the team website's transaction page, the Minnesota Twins have optioned the left-handed hitter to Triple-A. Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports The demotion of Alex Kirilloff might come as a surprise to some who remember him as a stud, top-20 global prospect, but it shouldn't be shocking to anyone who has been following the Twins closely this year. On the season, Kirilloff has posted a disappointing .669 OPS, and the trend line had been pointed steeply downward. After an encouraging start with a .754 OPS in April, he slumped to a .613 OPS in May and hit rock bottom in June, going 2-for-23 with a .360 OPS. He hasn’t recorded a multi-hit game since May 25 and has only managed two such games all season. While some might have pointed to his underlying statistics as a sign of potential improvement, even those numbers painted a grim picture. Kirilloff's expected batting average (xBA) sat at .220, only marginally better than his actual .206. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) was .442, compared to his actual .394, and his expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) was .312, slightly above his actual .292. These expected metrics suggested a minor regression to the mean, but even in the best-case scenario, Kirilloff would still have been an underwhelming hitter. Injuries may have played a role in his struggles, whether they were current, unreported issues, or lingering effects from his previous wrist or shoulder surgeries. Regardless of the cause, Kirilloff simply wasn’t the same batter the Twins hoped he would be when he was first called up as a top prospect. Instead of driving the ball with authority, he had been hitting grounders at an alarming rate, with a ground ball percentage (GB%) nearing 50%. What made Kirilloff’s offensive struggles even more pronounced for the Twins were his limitations on the defensive side of the ball. As a strict corner bat, offensive production is even more pivotal from him, as it is the easiest offensive production to replace. To make matters worse, he wasn’t even fielding those positions well, with a -4 Outs Above Average output in the field this season. Given his prolonged struggles and the team's pressing need for offensive production (save for Wednesday's performance against the Rockies), the Twins could not afford to keep Kirilloff in the lineup. Over the past 17 games, the Twins had scored three runs or fewer in eight of them. Changes were necessary, and Kirilloff, who still had minor-league options, was the logical choice to be sent down. The name that will be promoted in Kirilloff's place is still yet to be announced. The Twins have viable alternatives waiting in the wings. Matt Wallner, boasting a scorching 1.113 OPS with four home runs for the Saints in June in eight games, and Austin Martin, who has posted an .818 OPS while getting on base 46% of the time since mid-May, both offer more promise at the plate at the moment. Either would also be a defensive upgrade, with Wallner's arm in the outfield and Martin’s positional flexibility all over the field. According to reports Wednesday night, Martin is getting the nod. With 880 najor-league plate appearances and nearly 1,500 as a professional, it’s not a slam dunk that sending Kirilloff down to Triple-A will fix him as a player, or that he has any more to learn. The truth is, however, that the Twins could not sit around and wait any longer for him to figure it out at the MLB level. Demoting Alex Kirilloff is a tough but necessary decision that could help reignite their offense and give the team a much-needed spark. Hopefully, it's not the last we'll hear of Kirilloff, but given his age and track record, that's become a legitimate question. Do you think the Twins made the right choice in demoting Alex Kirilloff? How should they redistribute playing time in his absence? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Of all the disappointing performances for the Minnesota Twins this season, none have been more surprising than Pablo López's inflated 5.45 ERA. However, a closer look at the underlying metrics (and López's track record) suggests there's no need for alarm. In fact, there's every reason to believe that López will soon return to his dominant form. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Pablo López is coming off his best season to date--a season in which he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting and threw one of the most dazzling playoff starts in Minnesota Twins history, solidifying his status as one of the league’s elite pitchers. Over the past four seasons, López has consistently posted an ERA in the 3s, which has caused such an outlier season for him to raise so many eyebrows. There is, however, substantial reason for optimism. Last season, López experienced a similar pattern. Through his first 15 starts, he had an ERA of 4.40, yet his FIP was a much lower 3.47. This discrepancy indicated that López was pitching better than his ERA suggested, and indeed, the underlying metrics proved to be a better predictor of his performance. Over his final 17 starts, López posted a stellar 3.03 ERA, including a 2.00 ERA in August. This season, López's ERA of 5.45 is undoubtedly higher than we'd like to see, but once again, the underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story. His FIP is 1.30 points lower than his ERA, and as we look even further under the hood, there are even more promising figures. López currently boasts an xERA (Expected ERA) of 3.19, an xFIP (Expected FIP) of 3.43, and a SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 3.31. These advanced metrics, which incorporate strikeouts and walks in addition to batted-ball data like exit velocity, suggest that López’s true performance level is much closer to what we’ve seen in previous seasons. History has shown that pitchers with López's advanced metric profile tend to see their actual ERA regress toward their expected metrics, rather than having the opposite happen. As the season progresses, we should expect López’s ERA to align more closely with his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. This regression toward a truer talent level is a common phenomenon in baseball, where luck eventually evens out. And true talent is definitely something that Pablo López still possesses. López is still striking out batters at a 10+ K/9 clip; still throwing his fastball in the mid-90s; and still limiting hard contact, like he usually does. Just take a look at his Baseball Savant profile and you won’t see a pitcher whose ERA belongs in the 5s. For Twins fans, now is the time to buy López stock. His track record, combined with his underlying metrics, strongly indicates that his current ERA is a blip on the radar, rather than a trend. López has the tools and talent to be a cornerstone of the Twins’ rotation, and as the season continues, we can expect to see his performance stabilize and improve. Though it’s easy to get caught up in the worry of a high ERA, a deeper dive into López's statistics shows that there is reason for optimism. His advanced metrics paint the picture of a pitcher who is still performing at a high level, just waiting for the results to catch up. Obviously, the runs he's given up already are real, but we should expect him to surrender fewer going forward. Do you still believe in Pablo López? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Voting for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game opened on Tuesday, and the Minnesota Twins have several players making a strong case for a spot on the roster. Among the impressive performances this season, who stands out the most? Let's dive into which Twins players have the best shot at earning All-Star honors this season While the MLB All-Star Game might not have implications for the season, it remains a crucial benchmark for evaluating players in a historical context. Earning an All-Star nod is often referenced when discussing careers and legacies. Plus, it's a fun topic for discussion, allowing fans to celebrate their favorite players and debate who truly deserves the honor. So, even if the game itself is just an exhibition, the conversation it sparks is always worth having. Before we dive into the countdown, a quick refresher on the All-Star selection process, given that the process just changed in 2022. The All-Star Game starters, except for pitchers, are chosen through a fan vote divided into two phases. In Phase 1, fans vote for players at each position, including the designated hitter for both leagues. The top overall vote-getter in each league automatically earns a starting spot. The top two players at each position (and top six outfielders) move on to Phase 2, where fans select from these finalists. The winners in Phase 2, plus the top vote-getters from Phase 1, become the All-Star starters. For the rest of the roster, a combination of Player Ballot selections and the Commissioner's Office picks the pitchers and reserve position players. Each league has 32 spots (20 position players and 12 pitchers), ensuring every team is represented. Let’s count down the five Minnesota Twins players with the best chance to earn a spot in the Mid-Summer Classic in Arlington next month. 5. Max Kepler After a brief stint on the injured list in the middle of April, Kepler has been one of the best hitters on the Minnesota Twins this season with a 121 OPS+ on the season. Kepler has built upon the breakout second half of the season that he had in 2023 and is setting himself up for a hefty payday as he approaches free agency following the season. Barring a hot streak over the next month, it’s hard to see Kepler cracking the All-Star team, though he may not be as far off as you may think. Among American League outfielders, Kepler ranks 18th in wRC+ (122), 9th in WPA (0.96) and 21st in fWAR. Still a ways out, but a hot streak could put him in the top-10 in each of those categories. 4. Carlos Correa Carlos Correa brings the name value that will always put him in the All-Star conversation. He has been a top-five shortstop this season in the American League by most metrics, and has hit much better this season than he did last season now that he is healthy. Holding Correa back is how stacked the shortstop position is in the American League this year. Both Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson are playing like MVP candidates along with other big names like Corey Seager and Gunnar Henderson. Correa also lags behind other shortstops in games played due to his intercostal strain earlier this season. 3. Griffin Jax Griffin Jax has been the star of the excellent Minnesota Twins bullpen this season. Among American League relievers who have thrown at least 25 innings this season, Jax is 12th in ERA (2.13), 9th in K/9 (11.72), 7th in WHIP (0.87). The Minnesota Twins own a top-five bullpen by just about any metric this season and Griffin Jax has been the star of the show. Giving the best player on a top bullpen gives Jax a case for making his first career all-star game. Holding Jax back, of course, is that he is not a traditional closer and only has five saves, but with how the conversation around bullpens and saves has changed, that shouldn’t preclude Jax from a selection. 2. Joe Ryan Though he is coming off of his worst start of the 2024 season, Joe Ryan still has a case to make for being an All-Star this season. Ryan is entering this week with a 3.38 ERA (17th best among American League starters), 9.63 K/9 (8th best), 1.01 WHIP (8th best), and 1.5 fWAR (13th best). With his next three starts lined up against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics, Ryan has plenty of opportunity to improve his numbers, pad his stats and come into the All-Star break with enough momentum to earn a selection. 1. Ryan Jeffers Without a doubt, Minnesota’s most likely all-star this season is Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers ranks top-3 among American League catchers in OPS (.858), fWAR (1.8), RBI (36) and WPA (1.24). He is tied for first with 12 home runs. Jeffers has a decent shot at not only making the All-Star game, but starting the All-Star game for the American League. He will have to fend off some big names in Salvador Perez and Adley Rutschman, but given his statistical profile, he definitely has a case to make. It’s up to Twins fans to get him there. Who do you think is the most likely Twin to make the all-star game? Were any names missed in the above countdown? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Despite the current standings, there are several strong indicators that suggest the Guardians aren’t as good as their record says they are and that the Twins are well-positioned to catch up to and surpass them in the division race. We are about one-third of the way through the 2024 season and the Minnesota Twins are looking at a six game deficit behind the Cleveland Guardians, who boast the second best record in the American League. When you dive deeper into the Guardians team statistics, though, the legitimacy of that record starts to come into question. There are reasons to believe why the Guardians aren’t as good as their record says they are. Let’s dive into them. Strength of Schedule: The Road Gets Tougher for Cleveland One major factor working in favor of the Twins is the disparity in the remaining schedule difficulty between the two teams. To date, the Guardians have benefitted from playing the second easiest schedule in all of baseball, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of just .476. For comparison, the Twins have played the fifth hardest schedule to date with a combined opponent winning percentage of .513. This schedule discrepancy has certainly contributed to difference in standings in the AL Central. The tables will soon turn, though. For the rest of the season, the Guardians will be facing the third toughest schedule in the league, with their opponents boasting a combined winning percentage of .516. This significant increase in the level of competition suggests that the Guardians' path forward will be far more challenging, offering the Twins a golden opportunity to make up ground, as the Twins have the ninth easiest schedule the rest of the way with a combined opponent winning percentage of .492. Advanced Statistics: Luck Might Be Running Out for Cleveland A deeper dive into the advanced statistics reveals that the Guardians have been riding a wave of good fortune, particularly when it comes to batted balls. Cleveland currently has the largest gap in baseball between their expected slugging percentage (.373) and their actual slugging percentage (.395). Similarly, their expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA, a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base) and actual wOBA show the biggest disparity in the league. These metrics indicate that Cleveland's hitters have experienced a great deal of batted ball luck, outperforming their expected outcomes based on the quality of their contact. This luck is unlikely to sustain itself over the course of an entire season. As regression to the mean takes its course, we can expect the Guardians' offensive production to dip closer to their expected metrics, potentially leading to fewer runs and, consequently, fewer wins. Of note: on the pitching side of things, the Guardians are pretty much middle of the pack in terms of expected and actual statistics, ranking 17th in SLG/xSLG and in wOBA/xwOBA. Umpire Assistance: An Unusual Advantage According to Umpire Scorecard, a website that uses Statcast data to evaluate umpire performance, the Cleveland Guardians have also been the beneficiaries of favorable umpiring more than any other team. On average, umpires have added 0.31 runs per game for the Guardians, totaling 17.77 runs this season. This assistance is a 46% increase over the second luckiest team in this metric. While the impact of umpire decisions can be unpredictable, this advantage is another example of the unsustainable factors that have played a role in Cleveland's success. It's reasonable to anticipate a normalization in umpire calls, which could further impact the Guardians' performance negatively. It's true that the Guardians have had the upper hand in the head-to-head matchups against the Twins so far this season, boasting a 5-0 record. However, only two of those games were played at Target Field. The good news is that there are still seven games remaining between these two teams, with four of them to be played in Minnesota. This gives the Twins ample opportunity to directly cut into the Guardians' lead, and reclaim their spot atop the division. While the Twins are currently six games behind the Guardians, the factors discussed above suggest that Cleveland may struggle to maintain their current pace. A tougher remaining schedule, an expected regression in their offensive luck, and a likely reduction in umpire assistance all point towards a potential downturn for the Guardians. Coupled with the upcoming head-to-head matchups, Twins fans have every reason to feel optimistic about their team's chances to close the gap and ultimately capture the AL Central crown. Do you think the Guardians pose a serious threat to the American League Central Division crown or do you think their hot start has been more smoke in mirrors? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

Incredible work on this. Loved every word and every graph!

As the Minnesota Twins prepare for the return of Royce Lewis from injury, Edouard Julien is set to be the odd man out, facing a demotion to Triple-A. So, what is the fallout from the controversial decision? Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports The Twins had several candidates to send down (or send packing) as they get ready to reinstate Royce Lewis Tuesday. Ultimately, they decided that they valued organizational depth, and didn't want to DFA a veteran like Kyle Farmer or Manuel Margot. Edouard Julien's recent struggles at the plate made him the most logical choice for demotion. Since the start of May, Julien has hit .192 with 30 strikeouts, compared to just nine walks. Despite his potential, Julien's inconsistent performance highlighted the need for him to get consistent at-bats in triple-A. While there is plenty more discussion to be had about the decision to send down Julien and whether it was the right choice or not, the decision undoubtedly has ramifications in terms of the makeup of the Twins’ infield moving forward. Let’s dive into the three biggest questions following Lewis’s return and Julien’s demotion: What happens to José Miranda now that Lewis is taking over full-time at third base? The cleanest transaction for the Twins with Lewis re-joining the team would have been to send down José Miranda. This would have caused the least disruption to other positions and made for a simple swap. Miranda had other plans, though, as his hot bat made it impossible for him to be sent down. As a result, the Twins will need to get creative in deploying the right-handed hitter. Expect to see Miranda used at both first base and third base, as a backup to Carlos Santana and to Lewis, as well as a heavy dose at designated hitter. The Twins will also lean on Miranda heavily as a pinch-hitter late in games against left-handed relievers, replacing hitters like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. Miranda will always be in the lineup against left-handed pitchers, but he has shown throughout the season that he can be successful against righties, as well. What will the designated hitter rotation look like now? Expect Miranda to lead the way as a designated hitter for the Twins, especially against left-handed pitching. Additionally, the Twins will likely want to bring back Lewis slowly in his first month or so. A cycle of Miranda and Lewis at DH is likely. With the upgrade at designated hitter, the Twins will likely lean more on Ryan Jeffers at the catcher spot and not play him as often at DH, shifting more catching work away from Christian Vázquez. Who plays second base now that Edouard Julien was demoted down to Triple-A? With Julien gone, the Twins will have a giant hole to fill at second base. He was their near-everyday second baseman, providing much-improved defense there this season. The Twins will likely trot out Willi Castro as their near-everyday second baseman starting this week. Castro, a switch-hitter, will have a platoon advantage in every situation and play a capable second base in the field. One or two days a week, preferably against lefties, the Twins will utilize Farmer as their backup second baseman and shift Castro to a corner outfield spot for Larnach or Kirilloff. Few individual, internal roster moves have ramifications as immediately significant and far-reaching as this swap. The stakes of this one are high--for the Twins' hopes of contending in 2024; for the futures of Lewis, Julien, Miranda, and Brooks Lee; and for the short-term outlooks for Castro, Farmer, Larnach, and Kirilloff. We're about to get some answers to fascinating and long-standing questions. Did the Twins make the right call by demoting Julien? How should they handle second base and DH while they try out this mixture of position players? Spark a discussion below. View full article

The Oakland Athletics are rumored to be shopping their star, young, flame-throwing reliever, Mason Miller. How interested should the Minnesota Twins be? Image courtesy of © Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports In the first two months of the young MLB season, A's closer Mason Miller has been one of the most exciting young players in the league. In 26 innings this season, Miller has an ERA of 2.08 with a FIP of 0.85. Yes, a FIP of 0.85. Apart from just the results, Miller also has arguably the best stuff of any reliever in baseball, pairing a triple-digit fastball with a devastating slider to create a two-pitch arsenal that is striking out batters at a video game rate of 51.5%. Additionally, Miller leads all relievers in fWAR at 1.4 and is top-10 in Win Probability Added. With the Oakland Athletics franchise in complete turmoil until they complete their move to Las Vegas, they will be hearing out trade packages this deadline and seeing if now is the time to move their stud reliever, when his trade value will never be higher. Should the Twins be interested? This potential move comes with benefits and significant drawbacks that the Twins must carefully weigh. Miller, with his elite stuff, could elevate the Twins' bullpen from good to great. This kind of bullpen strength is invaluable in the playoffs, where games often hinge on late-inning performances. Pairing him with Jhoan Duran, who has already proven to be an elite reliever, and the excellent Griffin Jax and (hopefully, soon) Brock Stewart, the Twins could create one of the most formidable late-game bullpens in baseball. Additionally, acquiring a cost-controlled, high-impact player like Miller might be one of the few moves that Twins’ ownership would be willing to sign off on. We saw this offseason that payroll is a huge point of contention for this ownership group. With the television deal in flux even more now than it was last season, payroll is unlikely to rise. Miller, being a rookie, would be under team control for several years, providing significant value on a minimum contract. The Twins likely won’t be able to be in the market to trade for a veteran like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. simply because they won’t be willing to pay whatever part of his contract is remaining. Miller will be one of the few players that would both provide value and that the Twins would be able to “afford." However, acquiring Miller will undoubtedly require a substantial package of prospects. According to Ken Rosenthal, a Miller package would need to include “a young player of comparable ability, or a substantial package of multiple youngsters who could be part of the A's future." The Twins have a strong farm system, but parting with top-tier talent always carries risk. A deal for Miller would likely need to include two top-100 prospects plus another prospect or two. That's a lot to give up for a reliever. Historically, relievers do not provide the same level of value as starters or position players. They pitch fewer innings, and their impact, while significant, is limited to specific high-leverage situations. Overpaying for a reliever can be detrimental. The Twins must consider whether the potential upgrade in the bullpen justifies the cost in prospect capital. There is also the matter of Miller's health record. Prior to this year, he had been used as a starter, but the A's moved him to the bullpen in part because they wanted to see if he could stay healthy for a full year. In his four-year professional career, he's never topped the combined 52 2/3 innings he hit last year in the minors and majors. The decision to trade for Miller is not straightforward. On one hand, his addition could transform the Twins' bullpen into one of the most feared units in baseball, giving them a significant edge in the postseason. On the other hand, the cost in prospect capital and the inherent risks associated with relievers make this a gamble that the Twins must consider carefully. Given the Twins' financial constraints and their current playoff aspirations, Miller represents a unique opportunity to add an impact piece without spending money on it. However, with the prospect capital required and the ridiculous amount of risk involved in acquiring a reliever, it’s not worth it. What do you think? Should the Twins make a move for Mason Miller? Leave a comment below and join the conversation! View full article

As Royce Lewis nears his much-anticipated return to the Minnesota Twins lineup, the team faces a difficult decision: who should be sent down to make room for the talented third baseman? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports As the Twins decide who they will send down to make room for Royce Lewis, there are several factors to consider. First of all, they will almost certainly be sending down a hitter. In addition, there are a handful of key players on the team that are clearly not options. Ryan Jeffers, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Christian Vasquez, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana are assuredly staying on the roster. That leaves six potential players on the hot seat. Here they are, each with their own set of pros and cons. Jose Miranda Sending down Jose Miranda would be the cleanest switch, as both he and Lewis are third basemen, and prior to his latest promotion, many had moved on from Miranda as a future hopeful for the Twins. However, Miranda has been playing well, making this move less appealing. On the season Miranda has a 116 OPS+ with decent defense at third base. His solid performance at the plate has been a boon for the Twins, and disrupting that could have negative repercussions for the team's momentum. In addition, after Royce comes back, Miranda can spell Lewis at third while also filling in at first base and designated hitter. Trevor Larnach While Trevor Larnach has been hitting well, with a 118 OPS+ since his promotion in mid-April, he has often been the odd man out in the past when roster adjustments were needed. Larnach’s role has mostly been as a designated hitter over the past month, a position that could easily be filled by Miranda or Lewis after he returns this weekend. However, sending down a player performing well at the plate is always a tough call, and Larnach’s contributions shouldn't be underestimated. Alex Kirilloff Alex Kirilloff is in a similar situation to Larnach due to his nature of being a left-handed corner bat. The truth is, though, Kirilloff hasn’t been hitting well recently. In the month of May, Kirilloff is hitting just .164 with a 17/6 K/BB ratio. However, it’s hard to forget Kirilloff’s once-promising status as a star prospect. The Twins are going to need to decide soon if Kirilloff is going to have a future with this franchise, and sending him down to the minors wouldn’t be a move to help make that decision. Edouard Julien Edouard Julien has been struggling mightily offensively, making him a logical choice for a demotion. In the month of May, Juilen is hitting just .186 with a terribly concerning 29 strikeouts compared to just nine walks. Some time down in St. Paul to rightsize his swing wouldn’t be the worst thing. However, his strong defensive play and the Twins’ future plans for him complicate the decision. The team may be hesitant to send down a player they view as a key part of their long-term strategy despite his current hitting woes. Kyle Farmer Kyle Farmer is in the last year of his contract and has struggled at the plate. On the season, Farmer is sporting just a 52 OPS+. A mark in Farmer’s favor, though, is that he’s a clubhouse favorite, and his leadership qualities add intangible value. In addition, if he is taken off the roster, unlike the candidates above, sending down Farmer could mean the organization loses him completely. While sending him down could free up a roster spot, the Twins might be reluctant to disrupt team chemistry by moving a player so well-liked by his teammates. Manuel Margot Designating Manuel Margot for assignment (DFA) seems to be the most logical choice. Margot has been one of the team's worst hitters and can't play center field, limiting his utility. Additionally, the Twins have no plans to retain him for next year, making him the most straightforward choice to create space for Lewis. Furthermore, the Twins have other players like Willi Castro and Austin Martin, who can fill the same roles that Margot does, making him even more expendable. Ultimately, the decision will hinge on balancing short-term performance with long-term potential and team dynamics. Given Margot’s poor performance, lack of future commitment, and the presence of versatile players like Castro and Martin who can cover his role, he stands out as the most sensible option to be DFA’d. This move would create the necessary space for Lewis while minimally impacting the team's overall performance and future prospects. What do you think? Who should the Twins send down? Leave a comment below and join the conversation! View full article

Three weeks ago, the sky was falling. Now? The vibes have never been better. Settle in, and let’s take a look at what the projections say about the Twins’ chances of getting back to October baseball again this season. Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports Tuesday kicked off one of the more challenging stretches of games for the Minnesota Twins this season. Over the next four weeks, the Twins will have six games against the New York Yankees, three on the road against the Cleveland Guardians, four against the surprisingly formidable Royals and three on the road against the struggling but uber-talented Houston Astros. Coming off of winning 17 of 20 games and beginning this tough stretch of baseball, let’s zoom out and take a look at the Twins’ playoff outlook, according to the projection systems. When you talk about projection systems (and playoff odds, specifically), the two best places to look are FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Both outlets have had tons of success with their season simulations and projecting the performances of teams. These systems have proven to be more even more reliable than sports betting outlets. While each of their models are different, Baseball Prospectus's and FanGraphs's projection systems essentially work the same way. They take the current standings, remaining strength of schedule and projected performance, and then simulate the rest of the season thousands of times. How those simulations play out determines each team's reported odds and expected record. Looking at both sets of playoff odds as of Tuesday morning, here are the key takeaways. 1. The Minnesota Twins are heavy favorites to win the division, and overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs. Both projection systems feel very confident in the Twins’ chances of making the tournament in October. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 72% chance of winning the division and a 90% chance of making the playoffs, while FanGraphs has them at 61% and 81%, respectively. There are three reasons for this. First, the Twins were the preseason favorites to win the division. Those early projections still come into play, as systems like these forecast how the rest of the season will play out. Second, the Twins are currently only one game out of the division lead and hold a playoff spot. And third, the Twins possess the easiest strength of schedule among the teams in the American League Central the rest of the way. 2. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree that the Guardians are the Twins’ biggest threat for the division crown. While the Royals have been impressive to start the season and are only a game and a half out of first place, both projection platforms view the Guardians as the biggest threat to the Minnesota Twins for the American League Central crown. FanGraphs has the Guardians at 17% to win the division, while Baseball Prospectus is a little more bullish on Cleveland, giving the Guardians a 21% chance to take the crown. 3. The Twins have a good shot at a playoff bye. Major League Baseball changed the playoff rules for 2022, such that the two division winners with the best records earn a first-round playoff bye and the third-best division-winning team is forced to play a best-of-three series against a Wild Card team. Last year, the American League Central winner was a sure bet all season to get the best-of-three series, as the division was so bad. This season, the AL Central looks much more formidable and the Twins have a decent chance to avoid the best-of-three coinflip. FanGraphs has the Twins at 46% to clinch a bye and advance straight to the best-of-five division round. Would that bye count as two playoff wins, for this franchise that still counts such events carefully? That’s a conversation for another day. Do you feel confident in the Twins winning the division or making the playoffs? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

The Minnesota Twins’ handling of Jorge Alcalá this season has been among the more puzzling choices that we have seen from this front office. After getting sent down yet again last week, all Twins fans can do at this point is throw up their hands. Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Alcalá’s career with the Twins to this point has been filled with ups and downs--in terms of performance, in terms of health, and in terms of roster status. Bursting onto the scene in 2020, Alcalá quickly worked his way into a middle- to high-leverage role with the club and thrived, posting ERAs of 2.63 and 3.92 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Unfortunately, injuries kept him from building upon the nice start to his career. In 2022 and 2023, the righthander only threw a combined 19 2⁄3 innings before running into arm issues in each season. Coming into the 2024 season, though, Alcalá was feeling good about where he was from a health standpoint, and his stuff looked strong in Spring Training. The Dominican native looked primed for a bounce-back season. To begin the season, it sure looked like the preseason optimism from Alcalá and the Twins was warranted. Alcalá was immediately utilized in the second game of the season in the seventh inning of a one-run game, and he looked back to his old self. From there, though, the handling of the right-handed reliever got really weird. While Alcalá started the season looking like one of the best arms in the Twins’ bullpen, the workload that the Twins put on the reliever was curious. Over the course of the first six appearances on the season, the Twins asked Alcalá to throw multiple innings on three separate occasions, along with throwing on back-to-back days on another occasion. Alcalá did all of this without allowing a single run and striking out batters at a career-high rate. Considering the fact that each of the previous two seasons were marred by arm injuries, that kind of workload just didn’t seem to be prudent. Rather than limiting his workload at the major-league level, the Twins decided to send Alcalá down to Triple-A, despite his having a 0.00 ERA and coming off his best performance of the season. Rocco Baldelli cited performance for the demotion. Did I mention that he had a 0.00 ERA with a career-high strikeout rate at the time? Alcalá’s usage remained odd in Triple-A, where his first appearance for the Saints was a two-inning outing in which he threw 34 pitches. After three weeks in St. Paul, Alcalá re-joined the Twins. After (another) scoreless outing against Boston in his first appearance back with the Twins came perhaps the most mind-boggling deployment of the reliever yet. Last Tuesday, the Twins opted to have Alcalá throw multiple innings again, the fourth time in his eight big-league appearances. This time, he was asked to throw a career-high 48 pitches. It ended up being a rough outing for Alcalá, who allowed four runs on four hits and two walks, but it’s worth calling out that all four of those runs came in the second inning of his outing. Following the performance, Alcalá was once again sent to the minors, where he remains. The entire situation has been befuddling. Why did the Twins send down Alcalá with a 0.00 ERA and point to performance, when all of his metrics were career bests? Why are the Twins insisting on using Alcalá as a multi-inning reliever, when he is more effective in one inning and comes with giant health question marks? All of this has been extremely confusing, with no great answers. To make matters worse, the Twins bullpen is a bit in flux right now, with depth needed behind Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. If the Twins can bring back Alcalá in the same one-inning role to which they assign all of their other relievers, I’m confident that Alcalá could have a huge impact on this bullpen. It’s up to Baldelli and the rest of the decision-makers, though, to realize that their use of Alcalá up to this point has been misguided and that it’s time for a change. View full article

Bad starting pitching derailed much of the 2010s for the Minnesota Twins. They brought in Derek Falvey to create a reliable pipeline of young pitching, and this week has brought confirmation that the project is succeeding. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Most people think of Austin Martin as the prize for the Twins in the 2021 José Berríos trade. While Martin was certainly the headliner of the deal, Simeon Woods Richardson was also a highly-touted, top-100 prospect at the time, and someone about whom the Twins were excited. At the time of his acquisition, Woods Richardson was just 20 years old and already pitching in Double-A, aggressively moving through the Toronto minor-league system. After arriving in Minnesota, though, Woods Richardson saw his prospect status dip, with a drop in velocity and (consequently) strikeout rate. That was followed by a terrible year on the mound in 2023, wherein the righthander posted a 4.91 ERA in 113 ⅔ innings. Fans were starting to wonder whether he was better suited for the bullpen, or if he was even long for the roster at all. Coming into the 2024 season, though, Woods Richardson and the coaching staff were bullish. The velocity numbers in Spring Training were up from 89-90 MPH the previous year to 93-94 MPH, after a tweak to his arm slot gave Woods Richardson the extra boost that had been missing. Woods Richardson started the season in Triple-A, but after a poor start from fifth starter Louie Varland, the new and improved hurler was thrust into MLB action. In the short time since, Woods Richardson has been nothing short of incredible. In four starts, he has allowed just four earned runs in 20 ⅔ innings, with a 21/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins have recorded a win in every appearance. The most impressive outing from the 23-year-old came on Monday night against Seattle. The Twins were coming off their first loss in nearly two weeks, and Woods Richardson drew the start against perennial Cy Young Award candidate, Luis Castillo. Woods Richardson twirled a gem, striking out the first five batters he faced and tossing six shutout innings while only allowing one hit on the night. The increased velocity has certainly contributed to his better performance. In MLB, the mid-90s is a night-and-day difference from the high 80s, and can make the difference between a mid-rotation starter and a minor-league washout. Apart from pure velocity, what makes Woods Richardson such an intriguing prospect is the velocity differential between his pitches, which really mess with a batters’ timing. Successful pitchers want to have a large velocity difference between their fastball and their curveball and changeup, while many have a small velocity difference between their fastball and their slider. Woods Richardson checks all of those boxes. His fastball and changeup have a 9.9-MPH difference (86th percentile in MLB) on average, and his fastball and curveball have an 18.2-MPH difference (92nd percentile). His slider, on the other hand, only has a 5.5-MPH difference, which is in the 6th percentile. These are big gaps on the pitches that depend most heavily on that characteristic, and a small one on the pitch where more power is a good thing and movement makes the difference. Woods Richardson is throwing the ball harder than he ever has before, and constantly keeping batters off-balance by tunneling his fastball/slider and demonstrating massive velocity differences with his two offspeed pitches. What has gone into Woods Richardson getting to this point, as a legit starting pitcher in the Majors? “A lot of work.” he said after winning his duel against Castillo on Monday night. “It’s really easy to get sidetracked … but at the end of the day, the best players in this game are still working every day. Putting (my) head down and trying to be the best version of myself is what I’m trying to do.” His hard work has paid massive dividends for the Twins thus far in 2024. After the team failed to build sufficient starting pitching depth this offseason, Varland’s poor start put them in a tough position, needing to rely on Woods Richardson so early. Strong performance from him was imperative, as the Twins really don’t have any other options on the depth chart. The campaign that Woods Richardson is putting together has been nothing short of a season-saver. Between scouting and player development, it's now fair to say that the pipeline is flowing. It took a few years to get there, but seeing what Falvey has done with guys like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the rotation and Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax in the bullpen has laid the foundation, and now, with Woods Richardson pitching like we all hoped he would when he was acquired in 2021, the value of that new infrastructure is shining through. View full article

In an offseason full of disappointing additions amid artificial financial constraints, none has gone worse for Minnesota than the trade for Manuel Margot. What went wrong with that move, and when might the Twins consider replacing him? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports One of the Twins’ greatest needs this offseason was a replacement for Michael A. Taylor--a right-handed outfielder who could crush left-handed pitching and fill in at center field for the oft-injured Byron Buxton. While the front office tried to simply bring back Taylor, they were unable to come to terms. They opted to trade for outfielder Manuel Margot. Even at the time of the trade, the Margot acquisition wasn’t super inspiring. He was a career 91 OPS+ hitter and was coming off a 2023 season in which his OPS was a mere .686. The signing was justified, though, based on the fact that Margot could indeed fill the role that the Twins needed. He was a career .760 OPS hitter against lefties, could run the bases well, and (unlike other free-agent options, like Tommy Pham), was an above-average defender who could fill in at center field whenever needed. A month and a half into the season, the pickup has been a bad one by just about any metric. On the season, Margot has a lowly 46 OPS+, with just two extra-base hits and an on-base percentage of .258. The 29-year-old has a career-low xSLG of .286 and the second-lowest average exit velocity of his career, at 85.7 MPH. Both numbers are near the bottom in all of baseball. But, hey, Margot wasn’t brought in to be a Silver Slugger winner. He was brought in to crush lefties, run the bases, and play solid defense all over the outfield. He’s at least doing those things, right? Not quite. Against southpaws, Margot is hitting slightly better than against righthanders, but it's still a .685 OPS. Margot hasn’t provided any value on the bases, either. He has just one stolen base on the season, after averaging 12 stolen bases per season over the past seven years. Even more concerning is his sharp decrease in sprint speed. After posting a season in the 75th percentile in sprint speed in 2023, Margot has clocked an average sprint speed in just the 50th percentile so far in 2024. The most frustrating part of the Margot experience in 2024, though, has been his usage and performance in the field. Although the Twins have needed a center-field glove this season with a hobbled Byron Buxton, Margot didn't get his first start in center until May 6. Based on their actions, the Twins have shown that Margot is (at best) fourth in line for center-field action, behind Buxton, Austin Martin and Willi Castro, despite his ability to play center field being a key reason why they decided to prioritize him over someone like Adam Duvall, who has an .868 OPS against lefties this season. When he is in the field in a corner outfield spot, Margot’s defense there has been less than stellar. The Dominican native has posted -2 Outs Above Average, with poor range and a propensity for making some generally horrible plays, like the one against Boston on Sunday. The Twins are in a tough spot when it comes to Margot’s place on the roster, however, as most of the promising bats in the organization are left-handed bats, whereas the Twins really need a presence on the right side of the plate. As poor as Margot has looked at all three facets of the game, though, the Twins should not be handcuffing themselves by keeping him on the roster just because he stands in the right batter's box. Some potential replacements for Margot on the roster, should the Twins decide to go that direction, could be: Tony Kemp, whom the Twins brought in on a minor-league deal and who can play infield or corner outfield Matt Wallner, who has shown some signs of progress at Triple-A since getting sent down DaShawn Kiersey Jr., a promising prospect with the Saints who hits left-handed but has an .882 OPS so far on the season. The Margot move has gone just about as badly as possible for the Twins. Whether they decide to wait until Royce Lewis comes back or to make a move sooner, the Twins need to start thinking about what it could look like to move on from this misstep. View full article