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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Correct. I have him outside the top 30 Twins prospects.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Walker has usable minor league power. That's not relevant - only usable MLB power matters. Kingman had better MLB plate discipline than Walker has AA discipline. There is no comparison. Walker just cannot make enough contact or work the count enough to hit in the Majors. He isn't only bad compared to guys that went on to succeed - his AA numbers are historically bad, worse than almost everyone who ever played full time in AA going back decades. To put it another way - hundreds of players failed due to their lack of plate discipline. Walker is much worse in that area than 99% of those failures.
  3. drivlikejehu
    The post I responded to called him the Twins' best starter. Before his recent implosion, that was regularly being stated by posters on TD.
  4. drivlikejehu
    It's not good enough, because non-Minnesota MLB front offices have long since recognized that Pelfrey isn't good.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey is not the Twins' best starter. Period. He doesn't have the best ERA, or the most innings, or the most wins, or the best peripherals, or the best anything. He is the same mediocre pitcher he has always been, but for some reason plenty of people still get excited because of a fluky ERA that isn't going to last and is rapidly coming back into line with reality. The Pelfrey boosters just need to get over it.
  6. drivlikejehu
    I had a post a few weeks ago that listed his top comps from the past 15 years, but don't care enough to dig it up. Walker is the baseball equivalent of a long-drive champ. That's it. He can't actually play the game offensively. He's overrated, not underrated, because his weakness basically can't be fixed unless maybe he needs eye surgery. I mean, the minors are full of organizational players with no real shot at an MLB career. Generally they stay under the radar and are rarely discussed. Walker is a non-prospect just like they are, but because he hits home runs against minor league pitchers, he gets some attention (particularly from his relatives posting on TD). It's exciting for the minor league fans that get to watch him do it, but it's a pure sideshow with zero relevance to the Twins, now or ever.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Castro has been below replacement level for 2 out of the last 3 years. He stinks.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Still no power. Given his age, not a good sign.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Kyle Gibson, career: ERA - 4.50 FIP - 4.20 xFIP - 4.15 If he breaks the model, it would be because he's worse than the metrics predict. But to me it looks like he's just been unlucky, along with probably some questionable defensive assistance. I liked what he said about not giving in.
  10. drivlikejehu
    xFIP- by year: Milone 2011 - 119 2012 - 97 2013 - 105 2014 - 120 2015 - 118 Santana 2011 - 97 2012 - 108 2013 - 93 2014 - 94 2015 - TBD Not seeing the case for Milone. He put up #3 numbers for 2 seasons in Oakland, but from 2014 on he's been a 5th starter. Santana has been up and down but is clearly the superior pitcher. I would take Nolasco over Milone, but it's a little trickier since Nolasco keeps getting hurt and has a long track record of under-performing his peripherals.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, right now he is badly lacking in physical strength. That's definitely something, for a young player, that can and does improve with physical development & training. He's more of a project than I had realized, considering where he was drafted, but he's still a solid prospect.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Repeating a false statement doesn't make it true. You are misconstruing what he said, as has clearly been pointed out. You also failed to address the fact Pelfrey is a pitcher and thus outside Silver's comments about situational hitting, which you incorrectly believe is a statement in favor of "clutch hitting."
  13. drivlikejehu
    I wonder if it's really productive to go down the path of politely calling out 'haters' (my translation) and implying that skeptics do not want Walker to succeed. That is just false... I'm not aware of anyone on here that has questioned any aspect of Walker as a person or professional. Nor am I aware of Twins fans here that hope prospects fail and damage the future of the big league club. You are also papering over how stark the reality is with Walker. It's not about belief in "some stats." I researched the issue and found no record of any player with anything close to Walker's plate discipline troubles in AA that went on to success. Walker would, at an absolute minimum, have to improve in that area more than anyone has in the past 15 years. Probably he would need one of the most dramatic improvements in the history of MLB. These are not exaggerations. I welcome empirical counter-points if you have any. The issue from a prospect standpoint is this - how can you assume Walker might make a borderline-impossible improvement without granting the same to other players? What if Hu started throwing 100 mph? That kind of wish-casting is not how prospects are evaluated.
  14. drivlikejehu
    I read the article when it came out. Silver is really talking about the ability of hitters to adjust to the situation, say for David Ortiz to line a single instead of swinging for a home run. But it's a very tiny factor and not at all related to the mental qualities stressed previously in the thread for why some players are clutch and some choke. It's very misleading the way you have selectively quoted Silver here. Also, Pelfrey is not a hitter, so even that tiny nugget is irrelevant to him.
  15. drivlikejehu
    One positive for Walker is that he has relatives/friends who are passionate enough to endlessly fill TD with praise of his exploits.
  16. drivlikejehu
    He doesn't need projection. He's already better than almost every other pitcher in the minor leagues, save a handful of elite prospects. He just needs to refine his command.
  17. drivlikejehu
    I still don't understand the question. You mean his AA results? I think they line up great with #2 starter potential. He's the second youngest qualified pitcher in the Southern League and performing very well. His numbers are solid across the board... a young pitcher with high quality stuff, no major weaknesses, and by all accounts a good work ethic. If that's a maximum #3 starter, then the term is being used incorrectly.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Plus fastball, plus curve, solid change and slider, good control, improving command. Sounds like it will play to me. And, I said good #2, not an ace. Maybe you could point out some back of rotation starters with those capabilities?
  19. drivlikejehu
    I think he will good because he is good at pitching.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Sorry, I do not understand any aspect of this question/comment.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Well his K% in full season ball is actually around 24%, which is actually pretty good considering he has always been one of the youngest pitchers in his league. Chris Archer had a cumulative minor league ERA of 3.76. His career MLB ERA is 3.13 and dropping. Weird how that works when a young pitcher with good stuff continues to improve.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Here is a good summary that cites the key works in this area while providing some helpful numbers and graphics: http://spiff.rit.edu/richmond/baseball/wpa/wpa_2007/no_clutch.html Note that the links to other articles are out of date, but the title and author are listed so you can search for them easily enough. It's actually a pretty simple matter to research and the statistical results are 100% clear. This is not a topic on which there is any credible dissension.
  23. drivlikejehu
    So you define a #3 starter based on expectations? What does that even mean? A pitcher's job is to get hitters out. It doesn't make any difference how great he looks doing it. From 1997-2004, Radke was much better than average every single year except 1, when he was only a little better than average. But, according to you, despite the fact Radke's numbers were those of a strong #2 for for 7 out of 8 years, he was 'significantly out-pitching expectations' and therefore actually a #3? For 7 years out of 8? That's now how I remember it. I think after a little while anyone with a brain realized he was actually pretty good. Regardless, I'm fine with Berrios getting strong #2 results but being labeled a "#3" because he 'significantly out-pitched expectations.'
  24. drivlikejehu
    I agree completely. And yet Berrios has substantially better pure stuff than Baker and could easily have comparable or superior command.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Radke wasn't a #3. Really good pitchers aren't #3s. I've never seen a #3 that throws mid-90s with command and multiple quality off-speed pitches (which is clearly Berrios' potential), but maybe Berrios will be the first. I never saw Baker show that kind of stuff, but maybe my memory is failing me.
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