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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    LOL! Classic Terry Ryan. I'd say that this changed my opinion of his him, but that wouldn't be true.
  2. drivlikejehu
    He's replacement level this year. So the bigger question is why a team would even want him.
  3. drivlikejehu
    The Twins have him through his prime. Year-to-year is the way to go... there could be some kind of long-term deal that makes sense, but it wouldn't be easy. Probably would need team options for his first and second FA years to make up for the risk assumed by the club.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Not necessarily the same person. Mom, dad, brother...
  5. drivlikejehu
    I'm not sure what a 'projection' version of BaseRuns would be. It's just a formula to estimate how many runs will be scored as a result of a set of batting outcomes. The Fangraphs projections don't need to really worry about linear weights too much because everything is being normalized - sequencing is not a consideration and so the projected pythag is fine. Looking back, the actual pythag is pretty worthless because runs scored and allowed are heavily influenced by sequencing and other factors aside from the individual batting outcomes. BaseRuns essentially trues up runs scored and allowed to produce an accurate pythag record. The Fangraphs projections don't require a true up like that - to the extent they have error, it is because the individual projections are just off, rather than anything to do with how the events will work together.
  6. drivlikejehu
    The discrepancy was much larger pretty recently. The past couple series have increased the BaseRuns win% by a fair amount. The projections have exceeded BaseRuns all year, but if the Twins continue to play well that will flip.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Give up on him being a starting MLB outfielder. I had long since given up on him reaching the star potential once envisioned - a solid defensive CF with good hitting is a star, but there is plenty of room between star and 4th outfielder.
  8. drivlikejehu
    The ugly start still counts. It certainly drags down the Twins' BaseRuns, which has been steadily rising ever since. It's important to keep in mind that BaseRuns does not predict anything. It only looks back and provides an expected record based on the individual hitting and pitching events that have already occurred. Having said that, the expected BaseRuns winning % is now pretty close to the Fangraphs projected rest-of-season numbers. Extrapolating BaseRuns (which, again, it is not intended for) results in 82 wins, whereas Fangraphs projects 83 wins.
  9. drivlikejehu
    In 2013, Hicks couldn't even hit in AAA, let alone the Majors. In 2014 he was better at each level (though still not good). And in 2015 he took a huge jump forward in AAA, and now in the Majors. Looking at his career totals didn't tell the story, which is why I knew it was premature to give up on him.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Waiting for a larger sample would be the safe approach. Of course, the same was true when Hicks got off to a slow start after raking in AAA, and most of TD wrote him off anyway.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I did not give up on him being a decent hitter. There are threads from just a few weeks ago where poster after poster said he couldn't hit, end of story, but I argued that his AAA performance should not be disregarded and that the pieces were there for him to be decent offensively. Admittedly, my thinking has been that the Twins could use more power in those corner outfield spots, and so I haven't necessarily seen Hicks as part of the Twins' outfield future. My hope had been that Hicks would establish his ability enough to build trade value.
  12. drivlikejehu
    I'm sure some people have looked at it. I'm reluctant to place too much weight on the 1st/2nd round failures, though if Eades and Burdi wash out I'll probably be a little less circumspect since I strongly doubted the wisdom of those picks at the time they were made. If you think about the total value of pitching produced in baseball over the past 20 years, and then think about how much is from players signed out of the amateurs by the Twins, I don't see how you can get a good answer. I'm sure there are other teams without a great track record as well, but it's literally impossible for the Twins to even be close to average. That would leave the league far short of the number of quality pitchers that have actually played.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I don't see why it matters where the player was drafted. If another org is getting MLB pitchers in the middle or late rounds, that doesn't count? And 2010 or even 2009 is too recent to allow for an evaluation for many HS draftees. Nor does it matter if a guy makes a roster at some point... it's all about production. If a draftee gets a cup of coffee with the big club and produces no value, what difference does it make?
  14. drivlikejehu
    The Twins have a really bad organizational track record when it comes to developing pitching. It has occurred over too long a period of time for bad luck to be a convincing argument. And the success stories often have come from outside the organization, before developing further (e.g., Santana, Liriano, Nathan, May, etc.). So I'm not sure what to make of that, other than maybe the Twins have more trouble evaluating amateurs than actually coaching guys up.
  15. drivlikejehu
    I forget the reward for having an above average record at the all-star break.
  16. drivlikejehu
    May has been good throughout the season. In 15 starts, he's had one horrible outing and a few that were subpar. He was the Twins youngest starter and remains one of the five best. As inexcusable as demoting him to the bullpen was, what really scares me is that the Twins may not realize May is good. I don't understand how that is possible - it seems ludicrous to suggest - but the comments by management are unnerving.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Hicks is up to a RC+ of 102. I'm not surprised he's doing better - all along I've felt that his tools and minor league performance held out legitimate hope that he would perform better at the highest level. I've been in a tiny minority though - 95%+ of this board had given up on him. And who knows, he could go back to struggling... but I don't expect him to, now that he's using a balanced approach at the plate.
  18. drivlikejehu
    The notion of even thinking about sending May to AAA is insane. The Twins are in trouble if their decision makers are that out of touch with reality.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Gomez had a 20% K rate in AA at age 20, which isn't bad. He didn't walk of course, which has carried through to his sub-par MLB plate discipline. But I think some of his early struggles had to do with his mishandling by the Mets.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I will accept your bet in his favor, message me so that we can work out the details. And no disrespect to Walker - I'm sure he's a great guy and hopefully his post-playing career is successful - but he's really no different than the countless other minor leaguers that will never establish themselves at the MLB level. For example, take Walker's teammate Heiker Meneses... his odds of a real MLB career are what, 1 in 100,000? At best? That's just the reality. The same career realities exist for all of us. They can only do their best.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Escobar hit fairly well in May and June, now continuing into July. He should be the regular SS. I don't see how it's even a question... Santana belongs in the minor leagues and Escobar is miscast in LF. Not to mention Nunez isn't a SS - the Twins are lucky playing him there hasn't really cost them anything so far.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Yes, Walker has been good enough to crack the minor league lineup every day. Ditto for hundreds of other non-prospects.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Sano clearly started the year with a ton of rust. I wonder if he was a victim of larger/more inconsistent minor league strike zones? Because I also am having trouble understanding how he didn't dominate even more in AA. He was on a particularly hot stretch preceding the call-up, so it could be that he's just been on an upward trajectory all year, and now is basically just a beast.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Your numbers are only for players that spent most of the year at that level and thus qualified for the batting leader board. The good prospects were mostly promoted, so they did not technically qualify. However, many of them, including Walker's own teammates, scored at a higher rate, often much higher. So maybe Walker is good at staying healthy, and good at not being promoted, but that doesn't make someone a prospect.
  25. drivlikejehu
    As I point out in the other current Walker thread, he's never been the best run scorer on his own team and except for rookie ball it hasn't even been close. He just plays in a lot of games while other guys get promoted.
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