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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    With that said. Seriously... I don't care what his age 35 season looks like. He's one of us. Message to Byron. Please Stay! Message to the Twins front office. Don't do it just tell Buck that you'll listen but you belong in Minnesota and I wouldn't expect a deal. There will be Byron Buxton events at Target Field until he is 100 years old. In this day in age... Players who play for one team is so rare. Buxton needs to be one of those rare guys. One of the very few. He gets traded. He won't be rare. He will just be a run of the mill good player like the many in the history of the sport.
  2. Riverbrian
    Be willing to waive it is just plain smart. Regardless if he wants out or not.
  3. Riverbrian
    Off the top of my head. Johan Santana had a NTC The Mets had to negotiate a 6 year deal prior to the trade or something like that? 150 million or so. I don't remember exactly and I don't remember what he was making with the Twins but it was nowhere near the 20 plus million AAV with the Mets. I see the Buxton news (if you call it that) differently. I've said this before. If I was in Buxton's shoes. I've been a Twins fan since before I was born in 1965. I wouldn't want to play for any other team. That's how big a Twins fan I am and I am a loyal guy... have always been. However... despite all of that... I would let the club know that I would... Yeah... Of course consider waiving my NTC if the team was willing to blow my doors off. It will be the only chance for Buxton to renegotiate his (what many call) team friendly deal. He's coming off his only healthy season. It would kind of naive to not at least consider waiving it without hearing what other teams are willing to offer you to waive it and play for them. Being inflexible would be a mistake. I can only guess but if the Mets are willing to increase his AAV and add an extra year... what you really turn down 55 million for Minnesota loyalty? He's certainly not getting anything like that with his next contract. Now... the other side of this is the Twins. If the Mets or Phillies agreed to add an extra year and increase his AAV significantly. They won't give the Twins the talent back in return for a trade. So if I'm the Twins... I won't take the trade. You are better off with Buxton remaining and hopefully retiring a Twin. All we can do as fans is endure the rumors until something happens. Buxton will have to express to the Twins what he would require so they can negotiate a trade with the new parameters but the negotation hasn't happened yet and those agents might turn around and say... Yeah... that's what I told the Twins but to live in New York... I'm going to need more and now the Mets don't like the trade. In the end... if he leaves... he leaves. The franchise will go on. But... a lot of things have to be sorted out and yeah... he probably won't get that statue in the plaza. One more thing... in regards to his NTC rights. If he waives it... he is unprotected for the next two years. He can list 5 teams and that's it. He might take that deal with the Dodgers but the Dodgers can turn around and trade him to Pittsburgh.
  4. Riverbrian
    64% of Hockey players shoot left handed. They are a bunch of weirdos.
  5. Riverbrian
    Close but... Yes... the full no-trade clause in his contract does expire after 2026. Because the no trade is no longer necessary because he will have reached 10-5. 10 years of service and 5 with the same team gives him full no-trade protection. It doesn't need to be expressed in a contract. If he does waive his no-trade. His no-trade would be limited to 5 teams for the final years of the contract. If he waives this year. He gives up 10-5 rights and full no-trade protection unless he renegotiates full no trade into the new contract along with a hefty raise. There's a lot for Buxton to consider.
  6. Riverbrian
    Who knows but I feel compelled to say again. His team friendly contract will probably not remain team friendly. In order to waive the no-trade clause his only leverage. He's going to renegotiate that team friendly contract so it isn't as friendly. If Byron was a free agent this year... what would could he get? I don't know but that's what his agent will probably ask. 3 years at 25 AAV. Is that out of line for Buxton? That's his only leverage and he would have to be out of his mind to just give that up. That renegotiation is going to lower his trade value perhaps significantly so I'd say Jason Martinez didn't factor that in. Besides... How many teams actually have 3 top 50 prospects?
  7. Riverbrian
    The Mets need starting pitching bad so non surprise on the rumor. Actually no surprise if 20 teams are interested. Let's see who pays the price because everyone wants starting pitching. According to BBTV. I know... BBTV isn't the be all end all. Ryan 52.7 It would have to be Tong (If that's who the Twins indeed like) 25.3 Plus either: Sproat 23.2 or Baty 24.5 or Benge 23.3 or Vientos 19.8 or Jett Williams 20.3. That add up to 49.8 at the highest and 45.1 at the lowest. The Mets would still come up short so they may need to throw in a bullpen option or a young lottery ticket. Disclaimer: I have no strong opinions on any of the names that I posted. I'm just reading off of BBTV and adding up the value. Nor strong opinions on the accuracy of BBTV.
  8. Riverbrian
    I think a new paradigm has hit the MLB Front Offices. Everybody just watched the Dodgers overload on starters like no one has ever done before. Then get through the season without rotation congestion and then follow that with a World Series title with almost insignificant bullpen use as those starters ate nearly every single inning. I think the Blue Jays are attempting the same thing. They may not be done shopping for starters. Varland on the other hand. He probably stays in the bullpen. He seems to be doing quite well there.
  9. Riverbrian
    LOL I watch... Don't do much with the information but I watch... usually switch back and forth with the Twins game that night. I keep waiting for someone to get drafted... walk up on stage get handed that Browns Jersey and tell the ESPN interviewer afterwards. "I Really was hoping the Browns didn't draft me... Cleveland Sucks... Nobody wants to live in Cleveland".
  10. Riverbrian
    They can acquire as many left handed hitters as they like. What they need to stop doing is compromising their development and wasting roster spots on right handed specialists to handcuff them to. 75% of pitching is Right Handed... More left handed hitters is how you correctly play that split. However... the Twins need to acquire talent period regardless of what batters box they stand in. In regards to the reporting of the failed Red Sox deal. It makes perfect sense that the Red Sox would not want to include Duran or Abreu in a deal for Ryan at the deadline. They were contending for a playoff spot or division title. Duran and Abreu were huge necessary parts of that quest. The Red Sox would have tried to get the Twins to take prospects in return so they can add to Duran and Abreu for the stretch run. Now that it's the off-season and teams are restructuring their roster. They may be more inclined to deal Duran or Abreu.
  11. Riverbrian
    Great Post. I agree with much of it. It's just the trading Buxton part that I disagree with. I agree that we probably get the most value out of a Buxton deal right now IF... IF... if his contract simply follows him without adjustment to it. However... I don't believe it will. I'd guess that the contract negotiation that is sure to come to waive his no-trade will minimize the return to the point that the trade may no longer be worth it. If Buxton doesn't demand a renegotiation in order to waive it would be a critical mistake on his part. Let Buxton play out his current contract. Let him lead this group of young ball players forward. We are hoping these players turn into a Buxton anyway... so let Buxton be Buxton... trading him would just be an unnecessary step back that we don't have to take. Let's see how he is doing at age 35 and then work on a new deal to keep him in a Twins uniform after that providing his career hasn't fallen off a cliff in that time. Retiring a Twin would make him a rare player in this day and age. Buxton would belong with a group of people like Cal Ripken, Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek. George Brett.
  12. Riverbrian
    I can honestly say that I have never watched an NFL draft and demanded someone's head afterwards because they took the CB out of Kansas State. Yet, everybody I talk to afterwards is pissed the day after. I just really try to come to grips with my own limitations and those limitations are the same as everyone else. I have no idea who is better between Aiden Miller and Jett Williams. None. Yet... if I conceptually mention one of those names specifically... my next step is to try to get out of the hole I just dug because the guy I mentioned conceptually subjectively sucks. That leaves me with strategy and direction. It's all I got and it's why I'm singing that same song over and over again.
  13. Riverbrian
    This is what I try to keep saying. No one knows who will rise and who will fail. They are making extreme utilization decisions on marginal differences from a large pile of players in the middle. The front office have more informed guesses than we do but they don't know either. This is proven true time and time again. It applies to whoever we get back in a trade for Ryan and to whoever is on our roster currently. The only thing that you can do to mitigate this. Volume If the Twins... or anyone is afraid to add a talented SS because Lewis is at 3B, Lee is at SS, Keaschall is at 2B and we have Culpepper in St. Paul. It's a terrible mistake to feel that way because of what you posted. Injuries and the very real chance of failure. It's a terrible mistake because if you added a talented SS to our mix. It would mean 4 players with potential to cover 3 spots. Those players would sit one game out of every 4 if divided equally. That isn't going to compromise anyone's development And it won't last long because the equation will change because of injuries that are sure to occur and if Lee starts to OPS .800 while the new SS is a .600 OPS guy. The manager will change the equation because the players have told him through performance. If the Twins take this approach... they will get where they need to go faster than hand selecting and hoping that Lee works out at SS getting every single start with Kreidler wasting a 26 man spot not playing waiting for an injury to Lee so he can come in an OPS .300 as his replacement. And if by some chance... a miracle actually... that the new Young SS, Lewis, Keaschall, Lee and Culpepper are all tearing the cover off the ball and playing exceptional baseball. It won't happen but if it does... They can trade one of of them for someone else's Joe Ryan... because it's been established... that teams just don't give up these uber talented guys so if you have an extra one lying around... the return for one of them will be huge. But, you can't get to that point if you are just sitting there hoping that Brooks Lee gets it done and Brooks Lee is the only player that you are willing to seriously provide opportunity to and if he doesn't... you are just starting over with a single player 3 years later.
  14. Riverbrian
    I love posts with examples like that. A good analogy, parable, allegory, exemplum, metaphor, fable, simile always makes the post more interesting. Winston Churchill once said: The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences. Revelations 3:16: So, because you are lukewarm and not hot or cold, I am about to spit you out of my mouth. I agree with you but I'm also of the opinion that it's OK that Horatio Gates attacks Saratoga with Buxton playing the role of Benedict Arnold. In order to prevent him from becoming what Benedict Arnold would become in American History.
  15. Riverbrian
    Right now... I'd have to say. No I don't. At the same time... I'm not convinced that they actually tried. If they go back to strip mining prospects for parts. Wasting roster space on role players. I will cement that opinion.
  16. Riverbrian
    If the Twins get the #1 pick. Jett Williams or Dante Culpepper 😁 should have no bearing on the selection of that pick. You draft the best player. If it is Chowolsky... then that is who you take. I'd strongly recommend making the draft a separate consideration and I wouldn't freeze or avoid accumulating talent today because you might accumulate talent tomorrow. If we end up with 4 SS's that can play... That's great news. Wonderful... Let's do it. We can pick the best ones, move some to different positions or trade them to another team that only has Brooks Lee and Ryan Fitzgerald on the 26 man roster.
  17. Riverbrian
    And they still manage to find the room to find Max Muncy. Development + money = Bulletproof
  18. Riverbrian
    It's alright. You have a lot of posts that don't post that way in the bank. I gave you the benefit of the doubt that you responded before you read my follow up post. I spend a lot of energy on this website trying to speak generally, conceptually. just to avoid the specific player subjective opinion rabbit hole. The problem with that. It's hard to find footing with my general thoughts without specifics so I find myself in that rabbit hole more than I care to. This just kind of shows what happens when specific players are brought in. I don't have a strong opinion of Jett Williams or Bryce Eldridge or any of them. My strong opinion is... I want a young SS and 1B... I don't want to break camp with Kreidler or Fitzgerald on the 26 man roster. Especially on a 26 man roster that should be all about talent accumulation and major league talent identification.
  19. Riverbrian
    I agree with your overall sentiment. I'm a big fan of your posts and attitude. May you live long and prosper. Just want to mention that rebuilds don't have to take a long time. Where you start matters. If the Team wants to back up another 1,000 miles to make it take longer... They can... they may not have to. They can also choose to drive 40 mph instead of 80 mph. Thinking they wouldn't have room or if they would be unwilling to make room for a healhy Eisenrich and a young Kirby Puckett on the same 1984 roster is driving 40 mph and yes... it will lengthen the rebuild. It's all about identifying talent right now. If they pour enough players through... they'll find talent. Find out who's Dave Meier and who is Tim Tuefel.
  20. Riverbrian
    I don't know what other teams think. I also don't know if Bryce Eldridge can hit a major league sinker. Now what?
  21. Riverbrian
    I had a post a couple of above this one explaining that I'm not qualified to determine the value of Jett Williams or any of the prospects being discussed. Just throwing names out there to make my point that the Twins need to do exactly what your last paragraph states. They need to get this right. I think they need to take their Ryan trade chip and get the biggest baddest prospect they can land. I call him a Jenkins type talent. And it's probably going to be hard to get that guy.
  22. Riverbrian
    Honestly... this is where I have to trust my front office. I read scouting reports... I look at their AAA stats but... in the end... I'm just throwing out names when I really need a scout sitting next to me in North Dakota giving me more detail. I watched Culpepper, Jenkins and Mendez play one game in Wichita live. I had great seats and Jenkins and Mendez both hit the ball hard in that game. Culpepper was barely noticeable but I know I can't take that one game and say... Yep... Mendez is going to be a monster. The Twins and honestly most of the other 29 teams. I'm much more confident in my ability to identify. When I look at the Twins currently... I just really want a young SS and 1B to add to this mix. If the front office thinks that guy is Jett. Go get him... because I don't want to start 2026 with Kreidler or Fitzgerald on the 26 man. Let's load this thing up and start the upward trajectory.
  23. Riverbrian
    I won't argue fiercely with you. Only slightly argue with you. I know you are on top of your stuff. I worry about his declining value and it's sure to decline. Those players you list are exactly what I want and I believe you are right... they are very very very very hard to acquire. We have a window this off-season to get the best that we can get because the best that we can get will surely be less as his club control time dwindles. Waiting for the trade deadline will knock some Ryan trade value off but the trade deadline can offer a scarcity increase in value because there are not very many sellers who has a Joe Ryan available for a deal. That competition could drive his value back up. However... the big risk is... Injury. If he gets hurt over the trade deadline and won't be available to deal or certainly not at the price we could ask for right now. The next trade window is the next off-season and now you have one year remaining at maybe 16 million, 14 million and his value is down significantly down. If the injury is Tommy John... All the value is gone... and I mean gone. We will get nothing and that is like losing a Walter Jenkins type talent because we didn't use this opportunity to get a Jenkins type talent. I think they gotta try and move him and hopefully the other teams will play ball with us. I also appreciate Milwaukee and Cleveland and I think the Twins need to pay attention to what they have been doing because that is where our club fits financially. The major difference for this off-season. They got a head start on this. Milwaukee can make their decisions on Woodruff and Peralta and make these type of decision knowing that they are strong candidates for making the playoffs. Cleveland can make their move with Kwan knowing that they are strong candidates for the playoffs without him. They got a head start and they can keep reloading in this fashion. The Twins have to get to where Milwaukee and Cleveland are first and they won't until they find some Sal Frelicks.
  24. Riverbrian
    If the Twins move Buxton... Now you are probably talking about Jett. A little 5 foot 1 SS would become a fan favorite quickly and I'd love to see Jett push Brooks Lee so Brooks Lee can push Royce Lewis and even Luke Keaschall if he decides to look like Julien in his sophomore year.
  25. Riverbrian
    Some of them may work and some of them will certainly fail. That's why I like having numbers on my side. That's why I don't like the Ty Frances of the world And... And... that's why I constantly talk about 26 players who can play, no such thing as a log jam, competition for playing time... not putting all your eggs in a single player basket. There are people who say give Brooks Lee 162 games... I'm not one of those guys. Brooks Lee needs to compete for his playing time. I want flat out competition and the players will tell you who is ready and who is not.
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